Financial Globalization,International Business Cycles and Consumption Risk Sharing*

In spite of two decades of financial globalization, consumption‐based indicators do not seem to signal more international risk sharing. We argue that the fraction of idiosyncratic consumption risk that gets shared among industrialized countries has actually increased considerably over the period 1980–2000 and, in particular, during the 1990s—from around 30 to more than 60 percent. However, standard consumption‐based measures of risk sharing—such as the volatility of consumption conditional on output or international consumption correlations—have been unable to detect this increase because consumption has also been affected by the concurrent decline in the volatility of output growth in most industrialized countries since the 1980s. First, the volatility of output at business‐cycle frequencies has declined by more than has the volatility of permanent fluctuations. Since consumption reacts mainly to permanent shocks, it appears more volatile in relation to current changes in output. This effect seems to have offset the tendency of financial globalization to lower the volatility of consumption conditional on output. Second, because the variability of permanent global shocks has also fallen, international consumption correlations have also generally not increased as financial markets have become more integrated.     

Consumption Externalities,Habit Formation and Equilibrium Efficiency*

We analyze the welfare properties of the competitive equilibrium in a capital accumulation model where individual preferences are subject to both habit formation and consumption spillovers. Using an additive specification for preferences, according to which the argument in the utility function is a linear combination of present and past values of own consumption and consumption spillovers, we analyze the circumstances under which these spillovers are a source of inefficiency. It is shown that consumption externalities have to interact with habits in order to generate an inefficient dynamic equilibrium. Finally, we characterize optimal tax policies aimed at restoring efficient decentralized paths.     

International Risk Sharing and Low Cross-Country Consumption Correlations: Are They Really Inconsistent?

In dynamic-equilibrium trade models, the common assumption that asset markets are complete implies that correlations of consumption across countries should be quite high. In contrast, measured consumption correlations tend to be rather low. While some suggest this implies that asset market incompleteness is a fundamental feature determining international trade dynamics, this paper provides an example of a simple model economy in which complete markets can be associated with consumption correlations that are lower than output correlations. Conditions for substitution elasticities associated with this result are derived for a two-country, two-good endowment model with heterogeneous agents.     

Banks,Financial Markets and International Consumption Risk Sharing

In this article, we explore how characteristics of the domestic financial system influence the international allocation of consumption risk in a sample of OECD countries. Our results show that the extent of risk sharing achieved does not depend on the overall development of the domestic financial system per se. Rather, it depends on how the financial system is organized. Countries characterized by developed financial markets are less exposed to idiosyncratic risk, whereas the development of the banking sector contributes little to the international diversification of consumption risk.     

Marriage,Divorce, and Interstate Risk Sharing*

In this paper, we study the importance of marriage for interstate risk sharing in the US. We find that US federal states in which married couples account for a higher share of the population are less exposed to state‐specific output shocks. Thus, in addition to improving the allocation of risk at the individual level, marriage also has implications for risk sharing at the more aggregated state level. Quantitatively, the impact of marriage on interstate risk sharing varies over divorce regimes.     

International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks

This paper shows that standard international business cycle models can be reconciled with the empirical evidence on the lack of consumption risk sharing. First, we show analytically that with incomplete asset markets productivity disturbances can have large uninsurable effects on wealth, depending on the value of the trade elasticity and shock persistence. Second, we investigate these findings quantitatively in a model calibrated to the U.S. economy. With the low trade elasticity estimated via a method of moments procedure, the consumption risk of productivity shocks is magnified by high terms of trade and real exchange rate (RER) volatility. Strong wealth effects in response to shocks raise the demand for domestic goods above supply, crowding out external demand and appreciating the terms of trade and the RER. Building upon the literature on incomplete markets, we then show that similar results are obtained when productivity shocks are nearly permanent, provided the trade elasticity is set equal to the high values consistent with micro-estimates. Under both approaches the model accounts for the low and negative correlation between the RER and relative (domestic to foreign) consumption in the data—the "Backus–Smith puzzle".     

Intergenerational Risk Sharing,Pensions, and Endogenous Labour Supply in General Equilibrium*

We show that a two‐tier pension system, with a pay‐as‐you‐go first tier and a fully funded, defined wage‐indexed second tier, can provide for optimal intergenerational risk‐sharing without distorting the labour supply, thereby achieving the first best. Other arrangements with a fully‐funded second tier fail to achieve the first best.     

Risk Sharing and Efficiency Implications of Progressive Pension Arrangements*

This paper aims to quantify the welfare effects of progressive pension arrangements in Germany. Starting from a purely contribution‐related benefit system, we introduce basic allowances for contributions and a flat benefit fraction. Since our overlapping‐generations model takes into account variable labor supply, borrowing constraints as well as stochastic income risk, we can compare the labor supply, the liquidity and the insurance effects of the policy reform. Our simulations indicate that it would be optimal to introduce a flat benefit share of 50 percent and a basic allowance that amounts to 30 percent of average income. Such a reform would yield an aggregate efficiency gain of 3.3 percent of resources.     

内需扩大、消费习惯与贸易顺差

通过在消费习惯的基础上,建立最优消费的跨时贸易理论模型,然后运用GMM、2S-2SLS对中国在1978-2009年间的消费习惯和对外贸易进行实证分析,结论表明:消费者的消费习惯在国际贸易中起重要的作用,习惯降低了持久性收入对跨时贸易的影响,延长了对外贸易顺差持续时间。消费习惯的影响,东部最低、中部次之,西部最大。消费习惯在降低净产出与贸易顺差负相关关系的同时,又扩大了前期贸易余额与贸易顺差的正相关关系。影响贸易顺差的因素很多,在不考虑其它因素影响下,消费习惯也是中国贸易顺差快速增加的重要原因。     

东亚消费风险分担的度量及潜在福利分析

文章利用1970-2004年的相关数据,度量了东亚13个经济体的消费风险分担的程度以及东亚地区在实现完全风险分担后带来的潜在福利收益.实证结果表明:东亚区域资本市场在平滑GDP冲击方面的作用非常小,对区域借贷市场虽有一定的作用,但较为有限,这说明东亚的消费风险分担程度还相当低;相比OECD国家和欧盟国家,东亚各经济体风险分担的福利收益是比较高的.     

Wealth Breeds Decline: Reversals of Leadership and Consumption Habits

In a two-region model, we formalize Kindlebergers idea that wealth breeds first more wealth, and then decline: when one region leads, its inhabitants develop consumption habits incompatible with the necessary investment in knowledge to remain the leader. This gives the other region a window of opportunity to gain economic primacy. The theory suggests that differences across regions that have similar characteristics may persist even if physical capital flows from rich to poor regions. We study patterns of overtaking, alternating primacy, irreversible decline, and monotonic convergence, according to the initial dispersion of knowledge and the strength of consumption habits. Even though exogenous factors may matter on some occasions, we show that they are not necessary to reverse economic leadership.     

Habit Formation, Catching Up with the Joneses, and Economic Growth

Our objective is to investigate how alternative assumptions about preferences affect the process of economic growth. To do this, we analyze a neoclassical growth model under three alternative preference specifications: (i) time separable, (ii) catching up with the Joneses, and (iii) habit formation. Departing from the time separable specification leads to important differences in the dynamic structure, the adjustment path followed by key economic variables, the correlation patterns implied by the time series generated by the model, and the speed of convergence to the new steady state. In the catching up with the Joneses economy the differences arise from a consumption externality, while in the habit formation economy the difference arises from the fact that agents not only smooth consumption but also its rate of change.     

中国居民消费、习惯偏好与资产收益研究

习惯模型是行为资产定价理论的重要组成部分,该模型将经济主体的习惯因素纳入到资产定价之中,由此推进了消费资本资产定价理论的发展。习惯模型已经在欧美等国家和地区得到了广泛研究,而在资本市场蓬勃发展的中国则处于被人遗忘的尴尬境地。本文利用外在习惯偏好模型对我国居民消费、习惯偏好与资产收益进行分析。GMM结果是混合性的,模型可以较好地拟合数据,GMM结果无法否定外在习惯偏好模型,因而无法否定习惯因素在消费与资产收益分析中的重要性。     

Profit Sharing, Capital Formation and the NAIRU

This paper reconsiders the impact of different remuneration systems on aggregate employment. Contrary to common wisdom on this topic, we show that the switch from a fixed wage economy to a share economy results in lower aggregate unemployment. An additional innovation of this paper is the endogeneity of the capital stock decision of the firm, which enables us to assess and reject the common "disincentive-to-invest" criticism of a share economy.     

基于消费风险分担模型的中国——东盟金融合作程度的实证分析

自中国-东盟自由贸易区建成以来,中国与东盟的经贸联系日益加强,金融合作也取得了实质性的进展。本文运用衡量金融合作程度的主要方法——消费风险分担模型,对中国与东盟国家1999年-2010年的相关数据进行实证分析,得出中国与东盟金融合作程度较低,尤其是资本市场一体化程度尚处于初级阶段的结论,并对其成因进行解析,以期能够为进一步加强彼此合作提供参考。     

Incorporating International Competitiveness into the Demand for Labour Function: Some Issues of Specification and Interpretation*

This paper attempts to clarify the theoretical status and the empirical role of measures of ‘international competitiveness’ that have been used in econometric demand for labour equations. Some currently popular alternatives are finked to a simple version of the Salter-Swan-Dornbusch (‘Australian‘) dependent economy model which is found to provide insufficient basis for choosing between alternative measures, which in the Australian case at least are found to behave rather differently. In explaining employment in Australia during the period 1971-83, the preferred competitiveness variable is found to play a marginal role only with estimated long-run elasticity similar to that for the real labour cost     

消费习惯、异质偏好与动态资产定价:纯交换经济情形

本文用Chan和Kogan、Bask和Cuoco等的方法考虑纯交换经济下的定价问题,我们引进了两个投资者:一个具有外在性消费习惯;一个不具有消费习惯。我们重点考察消费习惯对投资者的最优消费规则的影响以及对资产价格的确定。此外,我们还考虑了对数效用函数下,消费习惯以差的形式出现的情形下的消费规则和定价问题。我们发现当两个投资者中一个具有消费习惯而另一个不具有该习惯时,消费习惯同时改变两个投资者的最优消费规则、消费动态和财富动态。此时的动态资产定价受外在性消费习惯的影响,即时Sharpe比为常数,并等于同质量经济下的即时Sharpe比。同时,如果考虑对数效用函数下消费习惯以差的形式出现,则即时Sharpe比是时变的,反周期的。     

International Consumption Patterns among High‐income Countries: Evidence from the OECD Data*

This paper examines the effect of economic integration on the product‐level consumption patterns across the OECD in the past decade. Estimation results find evidence of strong convergence in cross‐country consumption patterns with substantial heterogeneity across products and countries. The results are robust to either the benchmark choice, data selection, or the choice of model specification. In addition to documenting convergence, the paper relates the volume of international trade to cross‐country consumption patterns.     

不确定性下农村家庭食品消费的"习惯形成"检验

本文利用"习惯形成"(habit formation)假说来研究中国家庭食品消费行为的特征,并首次利用1989—2006年农村家庭微观面板数据进行实证分析,从而试图给出近年来农村居民储蓄率持续偏高、消费倾向持续偏低的一种新解释。对动态面板模型的系统广义矩估计结果显示,农村居民家庭的食品消费有显著的习惯形成效应,这一效应即使在考虑了家庭的"预防性动机"之后仍然是稳健的,并且它对消费的边际影响比预防性动机更为重要。但是本文估计出的"习惯形成"参数比用总量数据得到的习惯形成参数要小。