Revenue Elasticities in Complex Income Tax Structures: An Application to Spain*

This paper derives analytical expressions for the revenue elasticity of complex income tax systems, as applied to tax units and in aggregate. Among the complexities considered are the schedular nature of income tax systems and the role of central and regional governments, along with the existence of a range of intricate tax credits and eligible expenditures and deductions. Empirical estimates are obtained for the case of Spain using a cross‐sectional data set, which enables a number of important ancillary elasticities (relating to allowances and tax credits, and different income sources) to be estimated. It is found that there is considerable variation among tax units in the revenue elasticity, with highly positively skewed distributions. The nature of the distributions varies among regions of Spain, and the aggregate elasticities for each region were found to display some variation associated with income distribution differences. The national aggregate is found to be around 1.3.     

Tax and the Crisis*

Did taxation play any role in precipitating the financial crisis? Are there lessons to be drawn for future tax reform priorities? This paper reviews the main channels by which tax effects might have been felt and which may require forceful attention. These include in particular the large tax biases favouring debt finance and, in some countries, investment in housing. The complexities of national tax codes, and the international interaction between them, have, moreover, encouraged the use of complicated financial instruments and international tax planning, reducing transparency. Tax distortions did not cause the crisis – in the sense that there are no obvious tax changes likely to have triggered it – but they may well have contributed by leading to higher leverage and more complexity than would otherwise have been the case. Most of these distortions have long been a source of concern, but dealing with them may be more important than previously supposed.     

The Effective Tax Burden of Companies and of Highly Skilled Manpower: Tax Policy Strategies in a Globalised Economy*

Company taxes and taxes on highly skilled labour both influence the attractiveness of a particular region as a location for investment. We measure the effective tax burden on capital investment and on highly qualified labour in 33 locations across Europe and the United States. We then correlate both types of tax burden in order to study the different tax policy strategies applied in different countries. We find that effective tax rates on companies and on highly skilled employees are closely correlated for a number of countries. Ireland and most new EU Member States impose relatively lower taxes on capital investment than on highly skilled manpower. Conversely, in the US, companies are taxed heavily but the effective tax rate on highly skilled employees is moderate.     

The Labour Market Impact of the Working Families' Tax Credit

In October 1999, the working families' tax credit (WFTC) replaced family credit as the main package of in‐work support for families with children. Among a range of stated aims, the WFTC is intended to‘… improve work incentives, encouraging people without work to move into employment'. In this paper, we consider the impact of WFTC on hours and participation. To simulate labour supply responses, we use a discrete behavioural model of household labour supply with controls for fixed and childcare costs, and unobserved heterogeneity. In simulation, we experiment with a number of scenarios regarding the take‐up of the credit, entry wage level and hourly childcare price. We find participation rates among single mothers to increase by around 2.2 percentage points for the base‐case scenario, while for married women participation rates are modelled to fall. Our simulation results indicate a small increase in overall participation of around 30,000 individuals.     

Anticipating Tax Changes: Evidence from the Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform of 2005*

Using register‐based panel data covering all Finnish firms from 1999 to 2004, we examine how corporations anticipated the 2005 dividend tax increase via changes in their dividend and investment policies. The Finnish capital and corporate income tax reform of 2005 creates a useful opportunity to measure this behaviour, since it involves exogenous variation in the tax treatment of different types of firms. The estimation results reveal that those firms that anticipated a dividend tax hike increased their dividend payouts in a statistically significant way. This increase was not accompanied by a reduction in investment activities, but rather was associated with increased indebtedness in non‐listed firms. The results also suggest that the timing of dividend distributions probably offsets much of the potential for increased dividend tax revenue following the reform.     

Measuring the Effective Tax Burden in the Real World*

This paper argues that forward‐looking indices of the effective tax burden on income from capital – namely, effective marginal and average tax rates – are negatively biased because traditional models overlook dividend constraints associated with financial tax incentives, such as accelerated depreciation. The paper presents measures of the two indices adjusted to remove the bias and compares the new indices with the traditional ones. Numerical simulations carried out to quantify the magnitude of the bias for France, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the UK give evidence of sizeable distortions in the unadjusted indices and, in turn, suggest significant mismeasurement in the current assessment of the effective tax burden.     

Income Shifting in the Spanish Dual Income Tax*

Based on a model of behavioural response to taxes, and using the Taxpayers Panel from the Instituto de Estudios Fiscales for the period 1999–2009, we analyse whether the dual nature of the Spanish personal income tax (PIT), reinforced by the 2007 reform, has influenced taxpayers’ behaviour, causing them to convert part of their ‘general income’ (from labour, real estate or economic activities) into ‘savings income’ (from movable capital or capital gains). We also extend the analysis of income shifting and study whether Spanish taxpayers also responded to the different tax treatments given to the two types of savings income (from movable capital and capital gains) until 2007, transforming savings income from one type to the other. The results of our study demonstrate three facts. First, Spanish taxpayers did respond to the different tax rates, shifting income from the general base to different forms of savings, especially capital gains. The highest‐income individuals and the self‐employed and business owners are the groups where this behaviour was most marked. Second, the self‐employed and business owners also turned income from movable assets into capital gains, guided by their different tax rates. And third, we find signs of ‘anticipation’ and ‘learning’ effects caused by the 2007 tax reform. We believe that the results obtained will enrich the growing literature on income shifting.     

Population Ageing,Fiscal Pressure and Tax Smoothing: A CGE Application to Australia*

This paper analyses the fiscal pressure from population ageing using an intertemporal CGE model, applied to Australia, and compares the results with those of a recent government‐commissioned study. The latter study uses an alternative modelling approach based on extrapolation rather than optimising behaviour of consumers and firms. The deadweight losses from the fiscal pressure caused by population ageing are equivalent to an annual loss of consumption of $260 per person per year in 2003 dollars in the balanced‐budget scenario. A feasible degree of tax smoothing would reduce this welfare loss by an equivalent of $70 per person per year. Unlike the extrapolation‐based model, the CGE approach takes account of feedback effects of ageing‐induced tax increases on consumption and labour supply, which in turn impact on the ultimate magnitude of fiscal pressure and therefore tax increases. However, a counterfactual simulation suggests that the difference in terms of deadweight losses between the two modelling approaches is modest, at about $30 per person per year.     

Abolishing the Tax‐Free Threshold in Australia: Simulating Alternative Reforms*

This paper examines the role of the tax‐free income tax threshold in a complex tax and transfer system consisting of a range of taxes and benefits, each with its own taper rates and thresholds. Considering a tax and benefit system with benefit taper rates whereby some benefits are received by income groups other than those at the bottom of the distribution, it is suggested that a tax‐free threshold is not a necessary requirement to achieve redistribution. Four alternative policy changes, each involving the elimination of the tax‐free threshold in Australia and designed to achieve approximate revenue neutrality, were examined using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator. A range of implications were examined, including labour supply responses to tax changes and the effects of policy changes on inequality and social welfare. The results demonstrate that it is possible to eliminate the tax‐free threshold under approximate overall revenue and distribution neutrality, but that it is impossible to improve labour supply incentives at the same time. In order to achieve improved incentives, either revenue or distribution neutrality has to be sacrificed.     

The Distributional Impact of the Greek Crisis in 2010*

The severe economic crisis affecting Greece is widely thought to be having a significant social impact in terms of greater inequality and increased poverty. We provide an early assessment of whether (and to what extent) this was the case in 2010, the first year of the Greek crisis. We distinguish between two interrelated factors: on the one hand, the austerity policies taken to reduce fiscal deficits; on the other hand, the wider recession. Using a tax–benefit model, we attempt to quantify the distributional implications of both. With respect to the austerity policies, we focus on the changes affecting taxation, pension benefits and public sector pay. With respect to the wider recession, we model the effects of rising unemployment and inflation, as well as of lower earnings for self-employed workers and for employees of private firms. In simulating the impact of these changes on the distribution of incomes (and in estimating how the total burden of the crisis is shared across income groups), we take into account tax evasion and benefit non-take-up. We conclude by discussing the main findings, methodological pitfalls and policy implications of our research.     

Tax Biases to Debt Finance: Assessing the Problem,Finding Solutions*

Legal, administrative and economic considerations offer no compelling reason for the current tax advantage of debt finance in many countries. Instead, this ‘debt bias’ creates significant inequities, complexities and economic distortions. These are likely to be larger than previously thought, especially in the financial sector. To tackle debt bias, the most promising reform is to introduce an allowance for corporate equity, as some countries have successfully done. Its main obstacle is a budgetary cost, estimated at around 15 per cent of current revenue, on average for a selection of advanced economies. This cost can be reduced by granting the allowance only to new investment. The allowance could also be targeted to the financial sector and financed by special bank levies.     

Is a Tax Cut on Cultural Goods Consumption Actually Desirable? A Microsimulation Analysis applied to Spain*

Proposals for tax cuts on cultural goods represent an ongoing debate in cultural policy. The main aim of this paper is to shed some light on this debate using microsimulation tools. First, we have estimated an Almost Ideal Demand System for 19 different groups of goods, including cultural goods. Expenditure and price elasticities have been obtained from this model. Using this information, three alternative cuts in the VAT rate on cultural goods have been microsimulated and evaluated in terms of revenue and welfare. These types of fiscal reforms will lead to welfare and efficiency gains that can be described as regressive.     

Tax Amnesties and Income Tax Compliance: The Case of Spain

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the long‐term impact on Spanish individual income tax (IRPF) compliance of the amnesty measures granted in 1991 within the framework of the 1988–91 income tax reform programme. To that end, we combine time‐series techniques with outlier detection methods and the Bai and Perron (1998) test for the endogenous estimation of structural breaks. On the basis of the analysis of the monthly IRPF tax collection series from 1979 to 1998, we find that the amnesty had no effect on tax collection in either the short or the long term. By contrast, we find evidence of the permanent positive impact caused by the legislative and administrative measures linked to the IRPF reform process begun in 1988.     

发达国家税制改革展望

税制改革没有固定不变的套路,各国会根据自己的政治、经济状况随时调整税制改革的方向和内容:2000年以后发达国家的宏观税负出现了下降的势头,但是,由于人口老龄化导致的政府巨大财政支出压力的存在,未来其宏观税负进一步下调的空间不大;同时税制结构也出现了向间接税倾斜的趋势,在劳动力和资本的税负已无增长空间的情况下,发达国家今后还会把间接税作为税收收入的增长点;从公平和效率的角度考虑,还有可能进一步降低公司所得税和个人所得税的税率。     

The Distributional Impact of Pension System Reforms: An Application to the Italian Case

Between 1992 and 1995, the Italian pension system was deeply reformed, and it is now moving from an earnings‐related to a contribution‐based scheme. The pre‐1992 system was generous and redistributive; however, often redistribution operated from the poor to the rich, notably because the benefit formula was based on the last years of earnings, thus benefiting workers with steep earnings profiles. The new contribution‐based scheme may enhance equity by removing (some of) the inequities implicit in the previous system. Simulations calibrated on Italian male employees show that the contribution‐based scheme reduces inequality among all groups considered, with the exception of college graduates employed in the private sector. When taking into account the average level of the benefit as well as its distribution, the analysis shows mixed results depending on the worker's number of years of contribution and on their retirement age, as well as on the steepness of their earnings profile.     

Corporate Tax Consolidation and Enhanced Cooperation in the European Union*

We assess the economic impact of introducing consolidation with formula apportionment in the European Union and consider alternative enhanced cooperation agreements. We find that the consolidation is likely to yield a small aggregate welfare gain in Europe. However, not all countries benefit. A coalition of winning countries reduces the welfare gain and may induce a process of adverse selection which destroys the possibility of cooperation. We find that a coalition of similar countries (in terms of the size of their multinational sector) is more feasible in achieving agreement and is actually preferred by those countries over a Europe‐wide reform.