A Fuzzy Stochastic Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making Approach for Selection Problems

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the fuzzy and stochastic approaches as well as multi-attribute group decision-making techniques can be effectively utilized for selection problems in different kinds of uncertainty situations. A group of the decision makers describes a value for an alternative with respect to an attribute by the use of linguistic variables. The rating of each alternative is aggregated, which can be expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers. Then Monte Carlo simulation is applied to generate the performance distribution of alternatives with respect to different attributes in an uncertain environment. Finally, a stochastic compromise ranking technique, known as the VIKOR technique, is developed to evaluate probability distributions for each alternative on each attribute and to prioritize them. The proposed fuzzy stochastic approach is suitable to compromise a solution among the conflicting tangible and intangible attributes under the group decision-making process. In addition, an application of the proposed approach is provided to solve the important risk selection problem in a highway project. The results illustrate its real-life applicability and suitability in discrete group decision-making under uncertainty.     

The Use of Ranking Veto Concept to Mitigate the Compensatory Effects of Additive Aggregation in Group Decisions on a Water Utility Automation Investment

The use of additive models for aggregating group decisions implies they have a compensatory effect in the process of aggregating all decision makers’ (DMs’) preferences. In this kind of model, the final result may produce some extremely undesirable alternatives for one or more DMs. Such alternatives may emerge with a higher ranking than desirable ones, thus generating conflicts and regrets. To overcome this problem the concept of ranking veto is introduced based on a reduction factor combined with the utility of the alternative in order to penalize conflicting alternatives and reduce disagreements in an additive model. A water utility problem was considered as a numerical application to illustrate the model. A decision group method based on MAUT, utility thresholds and a reduction factor is proposed to support group decision in selecting regions that will receive investments in automation over the next 4 years.     

Selection of a Representative Value Function for Robust Ordinal Regression in Group Decision Making

In this paper, we introduce the concept of a representative value function in a group decision context. We extend recently proposed methods UTA^GMS-GROUP and UTADIS^GMS-GROUP with selection of a compromise and collective preference model which aggregates preferences of several decision makers (DMs) and represents all instances of preference models compatible with preference information elicited from DMs. The representative value function is built on results of robust ordinal regression, so its representativeness can be interpreted in terms of robustness concern. We propose a few procedures designed for multiple criteria ranking, choice, and sorting problems. The use of these procedures is conditioned by both satisfying different degrees of consistency of the preference information provided by all DMs, as well as by some properties of particular decision making situations. The representative value function is intended to help the DMs to understand the robust results, and to provide them with a compromise result in case of conflict between the DMs.     

Allocating Profit Among Rational Players in a Fuzzy Coalition: A Game Theoretic Model

In this paper, the problem of allocation of the profit, obtained from a fuzzy coalition, among its players is considered. It is argued that this allocation is influenced by satisfaction of the players in regards to better performance and success within a cooperative endeavour. Our model is based on the real life situations, where possibly one or more players compromise on their payoffs in order to help forming a coalition. We have developed a dynamic approach to obtain a suitable solution to the corresponding cooperative fuzzy game. Further, the notion of a penalty among the bargaining players is introduced. This would inflict them to reasonable demands only.     

论TRIPS协定下商标注册的使用要求——兼评我国相关义务的履行及商标法的第三次修改

TRIPS协定下商标注册包含的使用要求具有重要的法理意义,这也是美国商标法的直接体现。其中,TRIPS协定第15条第3款是对WTO成员国内立法的妥协,体现为一项选择性义务。TRIPS协定第15条第1款还包含了通过使用获得商标注册的显著性要求的规定,第16条第1款包含了对在先使用商标的特别保护要求。我国在商标注册使用要求方面不抵触TRIPS协定最低义务要求,但在商标法第三次修改时应谨慎对未驰名商标保护给予扩大保护。     

A Distance-Based Collective Weak Ordering

A group decision-making approach can be seen as a two stage process. The first stage allows for multi-cirteria evaluation of the alternatives and the second aims at deriving a collective weak ordering from the partial orderings supplied by the members after the first stage. The problem of combining the weak orderings to form a collective ranking is investigated. An axiomatic structure relating to the concept of distance between binary relations is developed. An algorithm for deriving the collective weak ordering is proposed, based on the idea of ranking first the least dominated alternatives.     

Ordered Weighted Disagreement Functions

In this paper a preference aggregation procedure is proposed for those cases in which decision-makers express their preferences by means of a ranking of alternatives. Among the most commonly applied methods for this purpose are those based on distance measures between individual and collective preferences, which look for the solution that minimizes the disagreement across decision-makers. Some models based on the minimization of the distance between rankings include weights to adjust the relative importance of the agents in the final decision, although in those cases, the weights are related with an a priori evaluation of the individuals and not with the behaviour of the agents in the group decision making process. In the model proposed here, a weighted disagreement function whose emphasis is on the ordered position of the individuals’ disagreement values is developed. In order to solve the problem, a mixed-integer linear programming model is constructed.     

The key risk indicators of road traffic crashes in Serbia,Niš region

Traffic crashes are a serious public health and socio-economic problem, and they are one of leading causes of death of males in Serbia. In order to determine the main causes of road traffic crashes in Ni? region, Republic of Serbia, nine key risk indicators of road traffic crashes are identified, organized into four groups (number and structure of crashes, consequences of traffic crashes, temporal and spatial location of traffic crashes, causes and sanctions), and described in detail. The indicators are ranked based on group fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), where experts from insurance companies, professionally engaged in the process of risk assessment, with different previous experience present different impact on the final ranking. In relation to the most influential factors in the assessment of traffic crashes, improper and unadjusted vehicle speed, overtaking and passing, as well as the physical condition of the driver have the highest effect.     

A multiobjective decision support system for multiresource forest management

A multiobjective and/or multiperson decision support system for analyzing multiresource forest management problems is developed in this paper. The procedure includes formulating the problem in a multiobjective and group decision making framework, and solving it using two solution techniques which consist of a distance-based compromise programming (CP) and a cooperative game theoretic approach of the Nash equilibrium type. The problem consists of five forest resources management objective functions to be maximized. Solving the problem using the two solution techniques enables determining a satisfactory compromise solution of the five forest resource management objectives. Sensitivity analysis of the two techniques shows compromise programming to be more sensitive to changes in the weight and the p-parameter of the technique while the cooperative game theoretic approach is relatively robust with respect to changes in the worst utility set.     

Characterization of the Row Geometric Mean Ranking with a Group Consensus Axiom

An axiomatic approach is applied to the problem of extracting a ranking of the alternatives from a pairwise comparison ratio matrix. The ordering induced by row geometric mean method is proved to be uniquely determined by three independent axioms, anonymity (independence of the labelling of alternatives), responsiveness (a kind of monotonicity property) and aggregation invariance, which requires the preservation of group consensus, that is, the pairwise ranking between two alternatives should remain unchanged if unanimous individual preferences are combined by geometric mean.     

An Integrated Group Decision-Making Method Dealing with Fuzzy Preferences for Alternatives and Individual Judgments for Selection Criteria

Organizations often require decisions to be made by a group, and decision makers often have fuzzy preferences for alternatives and individual judgments when attempting to reach an optimal solution. In order to deal with the fuzziness of preference of decision makers, this paper proposes an integrated fuzzy group decision-making method. This method allows group members to express fuzzy preferences for alternatives and individual judgments for solution selection criteria. It also allowed for the weighting of group members. The method then aggregates these elements into a compromise group decision which is the most acceptable for the group as a whole. This method has been implemented and tested. An example is presented to illustrate the method.     

Aggregation and Disaggregation of Preferences for Collective Decision-Making

Group decisions are of longstanding interest to researchers from a wide spectrum of disciplines. Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) can play a vital role in situations where multiple persons are involved, each having their own private perceptions of the context and the decision problem to be tackled. In such an environment the conflict between the members of the planning group is not an unusual situation. Multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods may be a useful tool in coping with such interpersonal conflicts where the aim is to achieve consensus between the group members. This paper combines two well-known multicriteria methods, based on the notion of aggregation of preferences, in order to construct a consensus seeking methodology for collective decision-making.     

Do real payments really matter? A re-examination of the compromise effect in hypothetical and binding choice settings

Numerous empirical studies have confirmed the existence of the compromise effect, which stipulates that options positioned between extreme alternatives in a product space are perceived as more attractive, hence becoming more likely to be chosen by consumers. However, literature on the topic frequently addresses the limited realism of prior work due to the artificial designs that were used. In a laboratory-based replication study, we examine the compromise effect across several categories in a more market-like scenario, in which experienced consumers make unforced decisions between real brands. In particular, we investigate whether the compromise effect varies in strength across the choice settings, depending on whether a hypothetical choice setting or a binding setting (in which subjects face buying obligations in terms of real payments for products) has been applied. While our results prove the robustness of the compromise effect for both choice frames, its strength differs significantly. Specifically, the compromise effect is evidently not as strong when real payments are introduced in binding choice settings. In addition, analysis of moderating factors confirms that compromise effects are stronger for categories where subjects are more in agreement about the relative quality of the options.     

Multicriteria Group Decision-Making Method Using Vector Similarity Measures For Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers

Based on the extension of the Jaccard, Dice, and cosine similarity measures, three vector similarity measures between trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (TIFNs) are proposed in the vector space and are applied to the fuzzy multicriteria group decision-making problem, in which the criteria weights and the evaluated values in decision matrix are expressed by TIFNs. Through the weighted similarity measures between each alternative and the ideal alternative, the ranking order of all the alternatives can be determined and the best one(s) can be easily identified as well. A practical example of the developed approaches is given to select the investment alternatives. The decision results of different similarity measures demonstrate that the three similarity measures have better similarity identification. The illustrative example shows that the proposed methods are applicable.     

电子商务平台出口影响因素及其溢出效应——基于消费者关键词搜索视角的研究

跨境电子商务平台上汇集了消费者对商品的"碎片化"需求,具体表现为消费者搜索大量表述各异的关键词。搜索同一个关键词的消费者具有相同的需求从而形成了特定的细分市场,因此本文从依据关键词划分的细分市场角度出发,在价格和评分的基础上引入搜索排名作为电商平台出口影响因素,由于跨境电子商务平台上广泛存在着交叉销售行为,本文还分析了上述影响因素对企业其他商品出口的溢出效应。研究结果表明:商品的排名提升、价格下降和评分提高不仅能增加其细分市场出口量,还能增加企业其他商品的出口量;其中商品排名提升的影响是通过增加商品点击量和提高消费者购买意愿来实现的;在消费者有品牌偏好或明确购买目标的细分市场中,商品排名的作用会有不同程度的减弱;当商品和消费者需求越匹配时,商品排名提升对促进出口的作用越大。     

“Fact or artifact? Empirical evidence on the robustness of compromise effects in binding and non-binding choice contexts”

In this article, the compromise effect (CE) is investigated according to which the choice share of a particular product is expected to increase when it is in an intermediate position in a subset of a product line. In a laboratory-based replication study, we tested CE both in hypothetical non-binding settings most commonly used in previous research on CE as well as in settings where experienced consumers make unforced and binding purchase decisions between real brands of two particular categories. While results prove robustness of the compromise effect even in the binding choice context, its magnitude is significantly reduced, hence indicating a hypothetical bias. Thus, since the CE is evidently less prevalent in the more realistic binding choice setting, compromise effects must be considered overrated to a certain degree in the previous studies on hypothetical decisions.     

Developing Group Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator Weights for Group Decision Support

A few single decision-making methods under uncertainty (SDMUU) are available in the literature. The reason for such scarcity seems to be mainly due to too insufficient information to induce a reasonable result for effective decision support. Moreover their final outcomes on the same SDMUU problem may be different depending on which method is applied. A group decision-making method under uncertainty (GDMUU) extends a SDMUU in a sense that a group of individuals, each expressing different opinions, work together to solve a relevant problem. As in a SDMUU, we find that just a few methods are available to solve a GDMUU problem. In the paper, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method, originally devised for use with the SDMUU problem, is considered to deal with a GDMUU problem where individuals of a group express their degree of optimism in terms of attitudinal characters. We first find the extreme points corresponding to the attitudinal character and then solve a quadratic mathematical program which minimizes a squared distance from each extreme point identified. Thus the resulting OWA operator weights for the group are located at the center of the weights-space constructed by attitudinal characters. This idea is further extended to deal with uncertain attitudinal character expressed in the form of interval in situations where it is difficult to reliably obtain a precise attitudinal character due to time pressure and a limited domain knowledge and so on.     

A Calibrated Group Decision Process

In practice most organisational decisions are made by groups that bring into the problem multiple perspectives, both complementary and contradictory. When having a group of decision makers, usually individuals’ preferences are either led to consensus or are aggregated with the use of some function like the median, the arithmetic or geometric mean. We focus in the second case, where individual’s preferences need to be aggregated. Our approach is based on the fact that when two decision makers are asked to give their preference between a pair of criteria using a specific scale, it is possible that they will give slightly different answers, even when they actually have the same opinion. This difference will not affect the case of a single decision maker, as it will be consistent throughout the whole process. However, it can affect a group decision when the values will be used as an input for the aggregation function. A novel approach is presented that enhances group decision making through a group calibration process. The proposed process adjusts individuals’ preferences based on their answers on a set of standardized questions prior to the aggregation phase. The method focuses The whole concept is applied to the group analytical network process method and it is illustrated through a telecommunications project case. The decision under examination concerns the selection of the right place for deploying a new telecom service of a multinational-based telecommunications company where a group of geographically dispersed decision makers form an ad-hoc virtual team in order to select the location for a new technical support centre.     

对我国银行资金流动性过剩的分析

今年"两会"期间,温家宝总理在《政府工作报告》中指出"银行资金流动性过剩问题突出,引发投资增长过快,信贷投放过多的因素仍然存在。"并明确提出2007年要"继续实行稳健的货币政策,综合运用多种货币政策工具,合理调控货币信贷总量,有效缓解银行资金流动性过剩问题。"近年来,流动性过剩已成为全球性的问题,是由全球经济结构不平衡所造成的。     

Common Ground, Complex Problems and Decision Making

Organisations increasingly have to deal with complex problems. They often use multidisciplinary teams to cope with such problems where different team members have different perspectives on the problem, different individual knowledge and skills, and different approaches on how to solve the problem. In order to solve those problems, team members have to share their existing knowledge and construct new knowledge. Theory suggests that negotiation of common ground can positively affect team decision making on the solution of complex problems, by facilitating knowledge sharing across perspectives. In a small scale study with student groups, external representations supported by a specific negotiation ontology were used to facilitate negotiation by encouraging participants to make their beliefs and values explicit. Results showed that the external representations supported clarifying contributions to group members and increased group participation in discussions.