中国基础设施投资的最优规模与最优次序——基于1996-2008年各省市地区面板数据分析

本文克服各项基础设施同时回归导致的多重共线性问题,基于基础设施的边际产出与最优规模分析框架,采用中国1996-2008年各省市地区面板数据实证研究发现:中国电力、燃气和水的生产与供应业、交通运输、仓储和邮电通信业、水利、环境和公共设施管理业等各项基础设施和政府总投资的边际产出分别为5.765、2.520、1.420和1.276;最优规模分别为4.66%、3.29%、5.02%和20.95%;各项基础设施的实际投资均低于最优规模。因此,为使政府投资收益最大化可按边际产出大小顺序优先次序投资;而根据各项基础设施投资的缺口和紧迫程度,则应按实际投资与最优规模差距由大到小顺序进行投资。     

中国上市公司季度盈利能力的综合分析

从行业角度出发,利用多元统计分析的方法,对我国上市公司盈利能力进行综合分析,结果显示,不同行业上市公司之间的盈利能力是有区别的,而采掘业的盈利能力连续三年始终排在首位,批发、零售业居其后,而交通运输、仓储、电力、煤气、水的生产及供应、传播与文化、社会服务业的盈利能力在逐渐下滑,下滑是否是由于金融危机的影响,留待以后进行研究。     

大学生网上购物研究

从行业角度出发,利用多元统计分析的方法,对我国上市公司盈利能力进行综合分析,结果显示,不同行业上市公司之间的盈利能力是有区别的,而采掘业的盈利能力连续三年始终排在首位,批发、零售业居其后,而交通运输、仓储、电力、煤气、水的生产及供应、传播与文化、社会服务业的盈利能力在逐渐下滑,下滑是否是由于金融危机的影响,留待以后进行研究。     

社保基金股票投资组合的行业偏好初探

全国社会保障基金是价值型投资者,行业配置对其具有重要意义。通过考察2008年末全国社会保障基金的股票委托投资组合在行业配置上总体的分布情况,分析出该基金的受托人在股票市场处于周期性底部区域时偏好投资于周期型行业,尤其是传播与文化产业,交通运输与仓储业,电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业,以及房地产业,并得出了在这一时段受托人的行业配置风格与该基金的投资原则和该基金作为价值型机构投资者的定位相符的结论。     

中国交通运输基础设施资本回报率的分解

资本回报率是交通运输基础设施投资效率的重要反映,也是分析交通运输基础设施影响经济增长的有力依据.本文估算了全国和分省交通运输基础设施的资本存量和资本回报率,并着重对1979-2013年全国资本回报率及其影响因素进行了分解分析,发现影响中国交通运输基础设施资本回报率的主要因素是产出资本比,其次是产出价格变动和资本价格变动,而折旧率可视为几乎没有影响.     

基于EVA我国上市公司资本结构与经营绩效关系的实证研究

选取了我国沪市制造类,水电煤气供应类,交通运输、仓储类,信息技术类,批发零售类和综合类等六类共648家上市公司,以其2004～2006年连续三年年报数据为依据,基于EVA对其资本结构与经营绩效的关系进行实证分析。研究表明,除水电煤气供应行业外,资本结构与企业绩效为显著负相关关系;企业规模与企业绩效有显著相关关系;股权集中程度与企业绩效无关。     

鼓楼区发展服务业的现状、思路与对策

服务业,即第三产业,是指以生产非实物产品为主的行业,在我国是指国民经济中除第一产业(农,林.牧、渔业)、第二产业(采掘业、制造业、电力、煤气及水的供应业和建筑业)以外的所有行业.     

香港公用事业的管理

香港的公用事业,包括交通运输、通讯、能源供应和食水供应等四个方面,具体分为公共汽车、电车、缆车、渡轮、电力、煤气、电话、电讯、自来水、隧道(狮子山隧道、香港仔隧道和机场隧道)、海底隧道、铁路、地下铁     

我国交通基础设施建设对经济增长的影响研究

基于柯布—道格拉斯生产函数模型,利用总量数据和面板数据探究我国交通基础设施投资对经济增长的影响。研究表明,我国交通基础设施建设投资对经济增长有长期、稳定的促进作用,并未出现剧烈波动和显著下降的现象,其贡献率约为12%;交通基础建设投资效率存在区域差异,人均产出与交通基础设施贡献度间的关系表现为U型曲线。当前,在我国经济步入新常态的背景下,应加快推进较高水平的交通基础设施投资,在其投资布局上将区域经济发展水平作为重要的决策依据。     

基础设施产业外资问题研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

近年来全球基础设施产业外来直接投资蓬勃兴起。跨国公司的参与通过技术扩散、产业竞争、产业合作以及服务供应等途径可能改进东道国基础设施产业的生产效率、可靠性和质量,但在电力和水务等特定产业,这些积极的产业影响并不确定。这种不确定性引起了针对国家经济安全和政策挑战的担心。本文还结合我国基础设施产业外来直接投资的现状和问题提出了政策启示。     

Benefits Of Communications Infrastructure Capital In U.S. Economy

In this paper we empirically estimate the contribution of the communications infrastructure to the growth of output and productivity at the dis-aggregate industry and at the aggregate economy levels. The estimated value of the marginal benefits or the shadow price of the communications infrastructure capital is positive in each of 34 industries representing the major industrial sectors of the U.S. economy. This effect captures network externality benefits and can be interpreted as a willingness to pay by each industry for communications infrastructure capital services over and above their direct payments for communications services. These results suggest that an increase in communications infrastructure capital services reduces cost in all the industries and as a consequence that of the entire economy. The relatively high value of estimated total marginal benefits for the aggregate economy indicates a high social rate of return to the investments in communications infrastructure.     

Liberalizing the energy markets of Western Europe – a computable equilibrium model approach

Using a computable equilibrium model, the short-run effects of a radical liberalization of the West European natural gas and electricity markets are examined. In each model country, oil, gas, coal and electricity are produced, traded and consumed. There are world markets for oil and coal, and well-integrated competitive markets for gas and electricity in Western Europe. Gas and electricity are transported and traded across markets under the assumption of ideal third-party access regimes for transportation and limited capacities in the transportation networks. It is found that relative to the data year 1996, radical liberalization reduces the average end-user price of natural gas by around 20%, and the average end-user price of electricity by around 50%. The supply of electricity increases by around 20%, mainly due to increased coal power production. After such liberalization, coal power emerges with the largest market share of electricity production in Western Europe.     

Analysis of the optimal spatial distribution of natural gas under ‘transition from coal to gas’ in China

China has been attempting to realise green sustainable economic development. Thus, China has proposed and begun to implement the ‘switching from coal to gas’ policy to realise the energy structure transition but neglected to consider seasonal natural gas demand fluctuations, gas supply shortages, the backward gas transportation and storage infrastructure. This paper constructs a model of China’s natural gas distribution system by incorporating these four factors: ① supply factors including domestic natural gas fields, liquid natural gas receiving stations, internationally piped gas sources, ② demand factors including domestic regional demands, ③ real natural gas transportation pipeline systems in the country, and ④ the pricing mechanism of natural gas. Optimal spatial natural gas distribution with maximum social welfare under the three conditions are simulated, respectively: the ① fixed price system, ② market pricing mechanism, and ③ seasonal fluctuations. The simulation results indicate substantial changes would occur in China’s natural gas system during the switch from coal to gas, and the natural gas infrastructure requires further improvement. This paper also provides references for the natural gas storage facility location selection in China.     

Natural gas,trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world

Natural gas is the key non-renewable source of energy for a low-carbon economy. The research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world. We establish long-run dynamics with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries. The long-run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies. Further, we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption, output and trade in the short-run. Given the significance of natural gas as the low-emission source of energy, we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply, reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market. With trade integration, majority of these countries need to incorporate these initiatives to improve the technologies such as combined cycle power plant technology and value-added chemical production technology to achieve sustainable economic growth.     

Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

Aggregate infrastructure capital stock and long-run growth: Evidence from Finnish data

In this paper, Bayesian methods and the Finnish aggregate infrastructure capital series from 1860 to 2003 are used to explore how government infrastructure policy affects long-run output growth. We use Finnish data, since to the best of our knowledge the Finnish land and water construction investments series is the best available sufficiently long time series on aggregate infrastructure investments. The Finnish data provide strong and robust evidence indicating that permanent changes in government infrastructure policy have permanent effects on the growth rate of output.     

基础设施影响农村经济发展的统计分析

Based on statistical analysis, this paper states that four types of rural infrastructure as roads, electrcity,communications, and education have statistically significant effects on agricultural production, nonagricultural production, and farmers‘ income in China. However, the specifics and the degrees of these influences are different.Therefore, different policies have to be implemented respectively to make full use of the limited funds in China.Meanwhile, the maturity level of rural infrastructure as with rural economic development has regional discrepancy.The levels of maturity decrease from east to west. it is urgent that the current weak situation of the rural Infrastructure in western China needs to be improved.     

Pricing flexibility under rate-of-return regulation: Effects on network infrastructure investment

When a commodity market relies upon a regulated network service industry—e.g., telecommunications, electricity, or natural gas transmission—economic efficiency in that commodity market is a crucial consideration for regulatory design. This is because insufficient infrastructure investment relative to network demand results in congestion. The extraction of associated rents has distortionary effects on commodity spot market prices. Greater regulatory flexibility in network pricing can alleviate such issues by cultivating the incentives needed for stakeholders to invest in transmission capacity. To illustrate this effect I derive and numerically solve stylized optimality conditions for access and usage prices for a gas pipeline operator under alternative regulatory models. My results have general implications for regulation in network infrastructure industries, as energy and telecommunications markets are expected to expand considerably over the coming decades.     

中国钢铁行业能源内部的替代弹性分析

本文运用中国钢铁行业滞后一期的产出代替劳动和资本变量,把钢铁行业能源投入要素分解为煤炭、石油、天然气和电力的投入,建立了一个超越对数生产函数模型,用岭回归估算了中国钢铁行业各能源品种投入要素的产出弹性、替代弹性。结果表明:煤炭与石油、煤炭与天然气、煤炭与电力的替代弹性在1左右,中国钢铁行业可通过用石油、天然气、电力替代煤炭来实现其行业全要素能源效率的提高。