Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?

We urge macroeconomists to abandon the 'natural rate' as an analytical device on the ground that it has become a source of great and growing confusion. But we press them to recognise that it has great potential as a policy tool provided we grasp the central idea of a hypothetical unemployment rate, which can be compared with the actual unemployment rate. We integrate three hypothetical unemployment rates with the help of an exploratory macro model and then present a quarterly series for each for Australia for the period 1986(2) to 1997(2). We explain how such series could help in policy-making.     

Time to default in the UK mortgage market

This paper employs duration analysis to investigate the timing of default in the UK mortgage market. Our analysis is performed on an ex ante basis, in that our explanatory variables are available to mortgage lenders when the loan is first made. We estimate both standard Weibull distributions and generalizations of the Weibull that permit non-monotonic hazard functions. The models fit the data well, suggesting that we have captured the major sources of variation in duration. We find that ‘cash flow’ variables, such as salary and interest rate paid, play the largest role. Surprisingly, loan-to-value ratios are either insignificant or influence default times in a counter-intuitive direction.     

因时而变：时间压力视角下反馈寻求时机对创造力的影响机制研究

反馈寻求与创造力关系已被证实会受到策略、反馈源、效价等因素影响,但忽视了寻求时机对创造力的作用。随着企业竞争格局加剧,员工将反馈信息转化为创造力的时效性显得尤为重要。由于反馈寻求时机的构念界定与特点描述并不明晰,关于其对创造力的作用机制尚未得出明确结论。为此,首先通过质性分析探索反馈寻求时机的内涵、特点,并进行量表重构;其次,根据解释水平以及双元学习等理论,从时间视角出发,探索时间压力下即时与延时寻求反馈对个体创造力的作用机制。分析结果表明：即时和延时寻求反馈均显著正向影响个体创造力;双元学习中介于即时/延时寻求反馈与个体创造力,即时与延时寻求反馈分别通过利用式、探索式学习促进个体创造力提升;时间压力正向调节即时寻求反馈与利用式学习关系,负向调节延时寻求反馈与探索式学习关系。     

Time series approaches to Italian regional convergence

This article investigates the evolution of the gap between Italian regions and Italy as a whole during the period of 1980 to 2007. We tested for the presence of the stochastic and β-convergence hypotheses using different time series approaches. The former was studied, first, for the entire sample period and then, with an exogenous instantaneous break in the series. The presence of β-convergence, instead, was estimated considering a known and an unknown trend break date model. Our results show that most of the regions do not converge in an ‘actual’ way, since they do not present a stochastic and β-convergence simultaneously.     

对投资理论的再认识

人们常常把投资看作是一种原因或结果蕴涵在一般经济理论中加以阐述，而忽略了投资是一种过程的整体研究，致使投资理论尚未体系化，更未能对经济实践有所解释或指导。笔者认为，造成这种状况的原因是人们对投资概念理解的偏差，由此使投资理论与其他经济理论（如资本理论）交织在一起，而没有把投资作为研究主题。本文试图在分析经济理论中的投资理论以及现行的投资概念的基础上，提出一个新的投资概念，以明确投资理论的研究范畴。     

Time of the essence

In most industries, ranging from information systems development to construction, an overwhelming proportion of projects are delayed beyond estimated completion time. This fact constitutes somewhat of a puzzle for existing theory. The present paper studies project delays and optimal contracts under moral hazard in a setting with time to build. Within this setup, project delays are found to be most likely to happen at early stages of development and intimately connected to the degree of commitment of the procurer and the class of contracts that can be enforced. The first-best, optimal spot contracting and optimal long-term contract scenarios are analyzed, as well as commonly encountered additional constraints on the long-term contract.     

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

This paper provides a new approach to forecasting time series that are subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks occurring over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if any) by means of a hierarchical hidden Markov chain model. Predictions are formed by integrating over the parameters from the meta-distribution that characterizes the stochastic break-point process. In an application to U.S. Treasury bill rates, we find that the method leads to better out-of-sample forecasts than a range of alternative methods.     

准时化生产方式的新思维

一种新的生产方式的产生,对人类社会的影响是不言而喻的,而一种新的生产方式的产生很多时候又是建立在对传统思维方式挑战、由此建立新的思维方式的基础之上的.准时化生产方式的产生正是在对传统制造业的大量大批流水生产方式的不足进行弥补的基础之上产生的,由于其具有的战略优势,它将成为21世纪制造业生产方式的主流之一.     

家族企业制度建立的最优时点选择模型

企业的本质是生产要素之间交易的结合点,管理制度就是对企业主与员工之间的信任关系进行治理。作者构建一个制度建立最优时点选择模型,在模型中通过比较新旧制度对企业内部信任关系治理产生的交易收益大小,讨论企业制度建立的最优时点。通过对模型的扩展,文章还分析了社会文化、劳动力市场效率和企业主权威度对制度建立最优时点的影响。     

Working Time as Gendered Time

Household-labor time and market-labor time are organized in part through the social structure of unequal gender relations. Generally, women do more household work than men, women's market work is undervalued, and the greatest rewards for market work accrue to men. The career model of employment is biased in favor of men who have few household responsibilities. Even noncareer seniority-sensitive job paths assume male incumbency with limited competition from household responsibilities. In this article we discuss the gendered underpinnings of the organization of time in contemporary Western society by critically examining household-labor time and the masculine models of career and noncareer employment. In addition to the important feminist goal of pay equity, we argue for a feminist politics of time that promotes alternative work-time arrangements for women and men to foster gender equality in the market and at home.     

低碳经济时代大学生低碳生活适应性研究

大学生是践行低碳生活的先锋队。本课题组的调查显示：虽然大学生的环保意识已明显提高,但环境问题还没引起大学生的足够重视;他们虽然对低碳经济和低碳生活有了一定的了解,认可度也比较高,但有55%的学生会不适应或是不愿意选择低碳生活方式;目前学生的生活仍然倾向＂高碳＂特征。所以,教育管理和研究机构要迅速制定大学生低碳生活准则,高校要大力宣传低碳生活理念,建立学生低碳生活方式的检查监督机制,引导大学生做好低碳生活的传播者和倡导者。     

Distorted Time Preferences and Time-to-Build in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy Industry

We study the welfare-theoretic consequences of diverging social and private time-preference rates and time-to-build for the transition to a low-carbon energy industry. We show that time-to-build, a prevalent characteristic of capital accumulation in the energy sector, amplifies the distortion induced by the split discount rates. Thus, these two characteristics create in a mutually reinforcing way less favorable circumstances for the introduction of new clean energy technologies as compared to the social optimum, even if welfare losses from emissions are internalized. We discuss resulting policy implications with particular emphasis on the energy sector.     

Time to change. Rating changes and policy implications

The recent financial crisis manifested the criticism to rating agencies of being slow in adjusting their rating to current conditions. This paper examines the timeliness of rating changes and identifies factors which result in ‘stickiness’ of rating actions. Knowledge of the stickiness of rating agencies is a first step in designing a more appropriate rating system. Stickiness is characterized by not adjusting the rating even when a market-based estimate of default probability changes. Extending an econometric model of friction the migration policy is modelled in terms of thresholds which have to be crossed by default probability estimates before an up- or downgrade occurs. Default probability estimates have to change by two notches before the rating agency reacts. The timeliness differs across the rating spectrum and over the years. During periods with high defaults and for low credit quality firms agencies tend to rate more timely.