Child labor, family income, and the Uruguay Round

Conclusion We are no longer limited to qualitative discussions of the merits of a social clause in the GATT against child labor. Future debates should be in quantitative terms. Child labor can contribute up to 25 percent of family income-contributions that the ILO regards as critical to their survival. Child laborers have few alternatives if they lose their jobs as a result of a social clause on labor standards. It is reasonably clear that child labor falls away quickly with economic development. However, multilateral trade agreements against child labor such as those proposed for inclusion in the WTO (and ILO) do not promote economic development. The contrary is more likely to be the case: they may reduce the range of alternatives available to children and their parents as producers, consumers, and breadwinners in developing countries.     

Public Procurement and Foreign Direct Investment Across France,Germany, Italy and the UK

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an important factor of economic development during the last decades. FDI contributes to the economic growth of the host economy through learning, diffusion of technology, positive externalities and capital inflows. Attracting FDI is currently an objective in its own right for many countries and this paper aims to identify policies affecting the multinational firm’s decision to establish a subsidiary. After accounting for labour productivity and trade openness, cross-section analysis, both industry-wise and country-wise, indicates that public procurement, especially “buy national” policies, and agglomeration economies are statistically significant determinants of FDI. Although our findings pertain to four large European economies, e.g. France, Germany, Italy and the UK, they constitute relevant policy guidelines for developing countries as well.      

Trade and Labor Standards

The purpose of our paper is to explore the different views of the issues of international labor standards and to explore the available options for addressing these issues. We conclude that: (1) there is no convincing case on theoretical or empirical grounds for incorporating labor standards into the WTO and into U.S. trade agreements; (2) the surest way to improve labor standards is for the United States and other industrialized countries to maintain open markets and to encourage the economic growth of their developing country trading partners; and (3) steps should be taken to support the activities of the International Labour Organization (ILO) to provide inducements and technical assistance to help developing countries raise their labor standards.     

International labour migration in the Asian-Pacific region: patterns,policies and economic implications

"This paper reviews the literature on international labour migration from and within the Asian-Pacific region. It deals with patterns and characteristics of migration flows, government policies towards labour migration, and economic implications of labour migration for both labour-exporting and importing countries in the region. The indications are that, despite gradual slowing down of labour flows to the western industrial countries and the Middle East, labour migration will continue to be a major economic influence on surplus-labour countries in the region. As an integral part of the growth dynamism in the region, labour migration has now begun to take on a regional dimension, with immense implications for the process of industrial restructuring in high growth economies and the changing pattern of economic interdependence among countries."     

Offshoring and the Elasticity of Labour Demand

This paper examines the impact of offshoring on labour demand and labour demand elasticities for a sample of 40 countries over the period 1995–2009 using the World Input–output Database (WIOD). Estimating the conditional labour demand model we find that offshoring impacts negatively labour demand, and in particular the demand for low- and medium-educated labour, with some evidence indicating that offshoring has tended to increase labour demand elasticities. Of particular interest are results for the subsamples of developed and developing countries. Most notably, we find that the negative effects of offshoring in developed countries are largest for high-educated labour, an outcome which we show is due to the offshoring of developed countries with other developed countries.     

对发展中国家的贸易与美国制造业的就业变动

本文利用1997～2006年美国制造业的面板数据,从静态和动态的角度实证检验了美国制造业与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业总量的影响。估计结果表明,考虑进、出口贸易对技术创新的驱动作用以后,进、出口贸易对就业的影响与理论预期存在不一致性,进口贸易不仅没有通过替代国内生产而减少劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,反而促进了该部门的就业增长;出口贸易也没有通过产出扩大效应而增加劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,出口贸易对就业的促进效应仅仅体现在技术密集制造部门。由于美国劳动力市场中存在价格效应、规模效应和劳动力需求的趋势效应,与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业的影响呈现明显的滞后性和动态调整特征。     

A Tale of Two Countries and Two Stages: South Africa,China and the Lewis Model

The paper compares the economic progress of two countries, South Africa and China, in relation to the Lewis model. These economies are chosen because they have interesting similarities and also interesting differences. At the start of economic reform in China and with the advent of democracy in South Africa, both countries had surplus labour: they were at the first, labour-surplus, stage of the Lewis model. It is shown that, since then, South Africa has continued to experience surplus labour: the unemployment rate has risen. By contrast, China’s labour market is shown to have tightened, and there is evidence that China has entered the second, labour-scarce, stage of the Lewis model. The difference lies in their growth rates. There are sections explaining why the South African economy has grown slowly and why the Chinese economy has grown rapidly, in relation to the growth of their labour forces. The Lewis model provides an enlightening framework for explaining how widely the fruits of economic development can be shared.     

Energy Dependence in Developing Countries: Does the Level of Income Matter?

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in four developing countries. The four countries include two lower-middle income economies, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, and two upper-middle income economies, Brazil and Uruguay. The study attempts to answer one critical question: Is the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth sensitive to a country’s level of income? In order to account for the omission-of-variable bias, the study incorporates exports as an intermittent variable between energy consumption and economic growth—thereby creating a simple multivariate model. Using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing procedure, our results show that while energy consumption Granger-causes economic growth in upper-middle income countries, in lower-middle income countries it is economic growth that drives energy consumption.     

Commodity boom-bust cycles and the resource curse in Australia: 1900 to 2007

The Australian economy experienced very frequent and sizeable terms of trade shocks. These shocks at times were more pronounced than commodity exporting developing countries and disproportionately benefited the extreme top end of income distribution. Did they derail overall economic progress? Circumstantial evidence suggests that they did not, but hard econometric evidence appears to be rare. In this paper, I revisit the Australian resource curse question from a long-run perspective. Using time series data on commodity prices, real GDP, real wages, non-farm GDP, manufacturing share of GDP, and manufacturing share of employment covering the period 1900 to 2007, I find very little evidence of a resource curse. Commodity booms in general and positive agricultural price shocks in particular appear to have impacted the rest of the economy positively both in short- and long-run. The positive effect is primarily led by expansion in manufacturing. This is perhaps reflective of trade protection, labour and credit market flexibility, and relatively open skilled migration in Australia especially during the post-war period.     

Interaction between structural and cyclical shocks in production and employment

Interaction between Structural and Cyclical Shocks in Production and Employment. — A major aim of recent empirical modelling of the business cycle is to identify the relative importance of aggregate supply and demand shocks. This paper uses the methodology of unobserved (or structural) components time series models for the identification of technology and demand shocks in a two-equation system of structural labour productivity and industrial output. It allows us to introduce the correlation between the structural and cyclical shocks such that the mutual dependency of these shocks can be estimated explicitly. The data is quarterly time series of labour productivity in industry and industrial output for Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States. Our results show that the covariance of the dynamics of structural and cyclical shocks appears to be important in these countries.     

North-South interdependence: The case of the Federal Republic of Germany

This study examines economic relations between West Germany and the developing countries in the fields of trade, capital flows and migration of labour. Activity in most fields has expanded enormously since the mid-1960s; in addition the traffic has become markedly less one-way. For the purposes of analysis the developing countries are differentiated according to their economic capacity; prospects for co-operation with West Germany appear to differ markedly according to their stage of development. So German development policy, for its part, needs to employ a variety of different strategies. The more highly developed the partner country, the more the field can be left to private initiative, supported by a liberal foreign trade regime.     

International Labour Migration in East Asia: trends, patterns and policy issues

This paper examines emerging patterns of labour migration in East Asia and related policy issues from the perspective of labour-importing countries. Following a survey of the characteristics of labour flows stemming from, but more importantly occurring within, the region, it probes inter-country differences, both in the timing of the entry of migrant workers and the degree of dependency on migrant labour in the context of rapid economic growth and labour market change. There is clear evidence that labour migration is now a structural feature of the economic landscape in these countries. The policy challenge is to design market-based systems for making the new reliance on labour inflows consistent with changing domestic labour market conditions and the priorities of national development policy, while minimising social resentment and adverse implications for political relations with neighbouring labour-sending countries.     

Public capital formation and labor productivity growth in Mexico

This paper addresses the important question whether public investment spending on economic infrastructure enhances economic growth and labor productivity in Mexico. Following the lead of the endogenous growth literature, it presents a modified production function which explicitly includes the positive or negative externality effects generated by additions to the public capital stock. Using cointegration analysis, the paper proceeds to estimate a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1955–94 period that incorporates the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and public capital (as opposed to the flows) and the economically active population (EAP) (rather than the rate of population growth). The results suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending on economic infrastructure—as opposed to overall public investment spending—have a positive and highly significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth. In addition, the estimates suggest that increases in government consumption expenditures may have a negative effect on the rate of labor productivity growth, thus suggesting that the composition of government spending may also play an important role in determining the rate of labor productivity growth. Finally, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on economic and social infrastructure to meet targeted reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP.     

Comments on S. Edwards: “Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: a Latin American perspective”

I discuss Sebastian Edwards’ most recent paper with great pleasure. As so much of the work of this distinguished economist, this paper provides new insights on a burning issue in international economics. Here Edwards provides empirical evidence on the resilience to external shocks of countries that lack a national currency (“monetary-union” or MU countries). The paper starts by reviewing the issues and literature relevant on exchange-rate regimes, dollarization, and MU in Latin America, with an emphasis on the question if countries in the region satisfy key optimal currency area criteria. Then the paper provides extensive new evidence on economic performance in MU countries, in comparison to countries with a national currency, using a large world panel sample. Performance tests are conducted for the comparative likelihood of MU countries of sudden stops in capital flows (SS) and large current (deficit) reversals (CAR), as well as their ability to absorb terms-of-trade shocks, SS, and CAR. The results are generally negative and significant for the comparative performance of MU countries. To set the stage, I start my comments by documenting first how country selection of exchange-rate and monetary regimes is quickly evolving in the world during the last decades, discussing subsequently how economists’ views follow suit (Section 1). Then I discuss some aspects of Edwards’ paper, focusing in particular on the data and model specification (Section 2). I end with brief implications for exchange-rate and monetary regime choice in Latin America.     

Boosting the Employment Rate of Older Men and Women

European countries need to expand employment among older individuals. Many papers have examined this issue from different angles. However, very few seem to have considered its gender dimension properly, despite evidence that lifting the overall senior employment rate requires significantly raising that of women older than 50. The key issue examined by this paper is whether employers are willing to employ more older workers, in particular older women. The answer depends to a large extent on the ratio of older individuals’ productivity to their cost to employers. To address this question we tap into a unique firm-level panel of Belgian data to produce robust evidence on the causal effect of age/gender on productivity and labour costs. We take advantage of the panel structure to identify age/gender-related differences from within-firm variation. Moreover, inspired by recent developments in the production function estimation literature, we address the problem of endogeneity of the age/gender mix, using a structural production function estimator (Olley and Pakes in Econometrica 64(6):1263–1297, 1996; Levinsohn and Petrin in Rev Econ Stud 70(2):317–341, 2003) alongside IV-GMM methods where lagged value of labour inputs are used as instruments. Our results indicate a small negative impact of larger shares of older men on the productivity-labour cost ratio. An increment of 10%-points of in their share causes a 0.17–0.69%-point contraction. However, the main result is that the equivalent handicap with older women is larger, ranging from 1.3 to 2.0%-points. This is not good news for older women’s employability. And the vast services industry does not seem to offer working conditions that mitigate older women’s disadvantage, on the contrary.     

Technology and employment in the production of cotton cloth

This paper makes use of two well-known UN studies of the integrated spinning and weaving of cotton cloth in order to examine the relationship between technology and employment in developing countries. In particular the paper: (a) considers the choice of technology in the production of a given volume of cotton cloth in Western Europe, Latin America and Africa; (b) estimates and discusses the elasticity of capital-labour substitution in such production: and (c) examines some aspects of job creation, factor prices and economic efficiency. The variation in ‘optimal’ technology choice across wage areas is found to be rather narrow and to lie in the upper part of the capital-labour spectrum. The variation in profitability across technologies, however, is found to be much less than that of employment in all three areas. The limited range of ‘optimal’ technologies is partly explained by the elasticity of substitution which lies between 0.2 and 0.25 for Europe; 0.25 and 0.33 for Latin America; and 0.33 and 0.50 for Africa. A certain prodigality in the use of both men and machines in the developing regions is also part of the explanation of the relative similarity in optimal technology choice in the three wage areas considered. In the light of this prodigality and the low elasticity, consideration is given to the question of increasing developing country employment in a state enterprise and a private firm respectively. Not surprisingly, it is found that it would pay to exploit the scope for substitution in the state factory if more employment were sought, although the difference in total costs by ignoring such scope could be relatively small. It is further found that the magnitude of factor price changes required to induce a profit-maximizing businessman to provide the required volume of employment could be dauntingly large. It is noted that increased efficiency in the developing textile industry could result in increased unemployment.     

The potential trade effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia

The Potential Trade Effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia.- This paper analyzes some of the potential economic effects of free trade agreements between the EU and Russia and the other European CIS countries using standard indicators of trade patterns. It confirms that it would not be feasible for the EU to conclude such an agreement with Russia alone. It is also shown that, if the current high tariff levels are maintained in the CIS countries, they may not benefit from an agreement with the EU. More generally, the authors question the economic motivation for countries such as Russia in seeking free trade agreements with industrial countries which already have low levels of external protection.     

Development and inappropriate or appropriate technology∗

It will not be possible to meet the basic needs of the poor in developing countries within the existing technostructure. The technology produced in the high—‐income countries is generally inappropriate for developing countries, being developed to suit conditions in the former. An appropriate technology more productive than a traditional one, but less disruptive than an inappropriate one, is therefore required. Such a technology is better suited to the factor endowments, levels of income, and the social and cultural conditions of developing countries. If real development is to occur in South Africa, priority must be given to the search for and use of smaller scale, more labour intensive methods of production that must be made accessible to all groups.     

American agricultural assistance and the new international economic order

Combining ethical, political and economic elements, this paper studies the relationship between American food aid and agricultural assistance and the evolution of demands made by developing countries for a new international economic order. The ethical viewpoint is based on John Rawls' theory of ‘distributive justice’ and argues that the ‘Right to Food Resolution’ does not meet the developing countries' calls for redistribution. After analysing the political and economic differences in outlook of the developed and developing countries, it is concluded that the conduct of American agricultural assistance policies towards the developing countries has failed to appreciate the needs expressed in their demands for a new order.     

A REVIEW OF THE CONCEPT OF THE “DUAL ECONOMY”*

The primary object of this paper is to present a methodological study which is concerned with how to clarify and evaluate the characteristics of that social and economic structure which is called “dual economy” in today's developing countries. It attempts a critical review of the concepts developed by J. H. Boeke, J. van Gelderen, J. S. Furnivall, H. Frankel, H. Myint, G. Myrdal and C. Geertz, among those who have taken the view of “social dualism.” It concludes that the concept of a dual economy should be perceived in terms of “colonial social dualism” as a system; and that it is solely from this point of view that the nature and direction of economic development in the context of economic nationalism in developing countries can adequately be explained.