开放经济下的产业安全问题探析

本文认为,随着经济全球化进程的不断深化,开放经济、引进外资已经成为发展中国家促进本国经济发展的基本国策。但是如果不加限制地扩大外资的规模也会产生负面影响,即出现产业控制倾向,进而引发产业安全问题,这是事关国家经济安全的重大问题。对产业安全问题的研究,无论在现实经济运行还是在理论研究中,都具有非常重要的意义。随着国家经济结构的调整和产业升级的进程,产业安全的内涵和外延也将会有所拓展,金融安全、能源安全、网络安全、幼稚产业保护、经济结构、产业结构调整等都将成为产业安全研究所应关注的问题。     

National Security Export Control Regimes: Determinants and Effects on International Business

Countries restrict exports for a number of reasons ranging from national security, foreign policy to the preservation of scarce resources. Most of the restrictions are imposed on military and high‐technology products. This article focuses on national security controls exercised on dual‐use goods, that is, commercial products with current or potential military applications. The article develops a typology of paradigms for national export control regimes: high state–low business, low state–high business, high state–high business, and low state–low business. It then introduces a theoretical model of the economic and political determinants and effects of such paradigms. The study presents national case studies and examines the effects of the four paradigms on international business. The article fills important gaps in our understanding of national export control regimes and their implications for managers of international business firms. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sovereign wealth funds: National security risks in a global free trade environment

The proliferation of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) has resulted in an unstable political, legal, and regulatory environment for this form of foreign direct investment (FDI). This article explains SWF growth over the last half‐century; discusses issues surrounding SWF “transparency” and host‐country national security risk; reviews the legal and regulatory structures governing FDI in major national economies; examines proposed regulatory approaches to structure the FDI environment; and concludes with a discussion of SWF regulatory policy recommendations addressing corporate governance principles, national security restrictions on equity investment, and investment reciprocity, and suggests recommendations for executives considering engaging an SWF investment partner. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响

20世纪以来,俄罗斯经历了乌克兰危机、西方经济制裁、国际油价下跌等外部因素的冲击,经济安全遭受严重威胁,在此背景下的俄罗斯政治经济战略势必波及中俄经贸合作,进而影响丝绸之路经济带建设。本文从贸易合作和对外直接投资合作方面,基于计量模型剖析俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响过程及关联因素。研究表明俄罗斯国家经济安全危机提升了中国在俄贸易伙伴国中的地位,促使俄与中国产能合作的意愿强烈,直接投资和产能合作逐渐成为推动中俄经贸合作向纵深发展的强劲动力;俄罗斯国家经济安全危机对中俄罗贸易有显著负向影响,中俄政治关系对贸易合作有显著正向影响。这是提高中国对俄罗斯投资、提升高新技术产品在俄罗斯进口比重的机遇期,亦是推进丝绸之路经济带的重要机遇期。经济强势崛起的俄罗斯和经济体系全面崩溃的俄罗斯对丝绸之路经济带的推进均有重要影响,在与其发展战略协作伙伴关系过程中,中国恰到好处地拿捏平衡其中的大国利益边界至关重要。     

Economic performance over time: Does porter's diamond hold at the national level?

This research examines the conditions that contribute to the performance of countries and their industries in international markets. Building on Porter's dynamic diamond, 1960 and 1985 data on 49 countries are used to develop country-level factors related to national economic performance. Three factors were identified: infrastructure/demand, competitive investment, and education. The analysis considers how these factors are related to gross domestic product, net exports, and foreign direct investment. It also assesses changes over time and differences between industrialized and developing countries. The relationships between the three factors and GDP were substantially the same for both industrialized and developing countries, but not for net exports and foreign direct investment. These findings suggest that the relationships between the factors and national performance have changed over time and that there are important differences between developing and industrialized countries.     

《中欧全面投资协定》的公平竞争规则:关切、安排与应对

《中欧全面投资协定》旨在取代中国与26个欧盟成员国之间的双边投资协定,在中欧之间构建全面、综合、高水平、自由化的双边投资制度安排,其谈判完成具有历史性意义。公平竞争规则涉及国有企业、补贴、产业政策等敏感领域,曾一度是谈判难点。竞争中立在一些区域自贸协定中扩展到投资领域,表现为对国有企业的投资母国施加特殊规制性安排。中国对特殊安排做出重要承诺,但并未接受有实质影响的额外约束,既促成谈判收官,也能够保障国有企业海外投资的核心利益。欧盟近期的外资和法律政策呈现阶段性保守的新动态,以国家安全为名的《欧盟外资审查条例》对高科技、战略性领域的关切具有所有制歧视色彩,针对外国补贴可能引起内部市场扭曲的《关于外国补贴方面建立公平竞争环境的白皮书》对国企的海外投资有潜在风险。为此,我们应在国内层面进一步厘清政企关系,对“国家安全”进行清晰界定,在多边、双边、区域层面继续推进新一轮高水平的对外开放,同时加快升级外商投资国家安全审查机制,并完善公平竞争审查机制,标本兼治,内外兼修,趋利避害。     

外商直接投资对经济增长的影响分析

近年来,外商直接投资作为国际化经济的显著特征之一日益发展。它作为外资企业谋求经济利益的主要经济活动之一,与贸易并行的国际经济活动的一部分。以中国、巴基斯坦及日本为例,利用宏观经济数据,用计量经济模型,定量比较分析外商直接投资对经济增长的影响。结果表明:外商直接投资与贸易、人力资本等因素促进中国和巴基斯坦的经济增长,但是促进效果不同。     

Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Nexus?

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the impact of foreign capital inflows on economic growth in Nigeria for 1980–2015 period. It employs Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL)-bounds test, and finds a cointegration relationship between foreign capital inflows and growth. Specifically, foreign portfolio investment has positive impact on growth, while the impact of foreign loans is negative. Nevertheless, foreign direct investment and foreign aid have insignificant impact on growth, suggesting that Nigeria cannot rely on foreign direct investment and foreign aid as vehicles to stimulate growth. Rather, an increase in foreign portfolio investment or reduction in foreign loans has beneficial effects on the economy.     

Effects of direct foreign investment

There has been a considerable controversy in the Indian economic literature regarding the relative merits of direct foreign investment and official development assistance. No systematic study¹, however, is available on the effects of direct foreign investment in India. Therefore this article discusses this subject for the period 1951–66.     

Financial Liberalisation and Growth in China’s Economic Reform

This paper summarises China’s financial liberalisation experience and examines the contributions of financial resources on economic growth during the post‐reform period. Financial liberalisation has resulted in the reallocation of the four sources of total investment in fixed assets: state budget appropriation, national bank loans, self‐raised funds, and foreign investment. We find that the growth of GDP and industrial production are positively related to the growth of self‐raised funds and foreign investment. We conclude that the use of foreign investment and funds raised by the enterprises themselves are more efficient than the government’s appropriation and provision of bank loans.     

Social and Political Risks: Factors Affecting FDI in China's Mining Sector

Political risk can be defined as the potential for uncertainty and harm to business/economic operations that arise from political (governmental and other) behavior and events. These risks typically stem from factors such as economic structures, government institutions, policies, and societal characteristics, and are becoming more of a concern to prospective investors in a changing global political economy. This article seeks to expand upon the framework of political risk analysis by looking at “softer,” nonquantifiable risk factors. Through the analysis of foreign business experiences in China, we aim to demonstrate, via a qualitative case study of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Chinese mining sector, that in addition to typical financial, operational, and geological factors, firms should be better aware of the particular sociopolitical and cultural risks that can harm their investments in a given industry. This study draws on primary fieldwork, focuses on micropolitical risks to the industry, and stresses that multinational corporations (MNCs) could be more cognizant of the many societal factors that can influence an investment success. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Corruption,Foreign Direct Investment,and International Marketing in the Western Balkans

Corruption is one of the major issues the Western Balkans is facing, challenging both domestic and foreign companies in doing business. This article examines the role of corruption in hindering foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Western Balkans during the 1992–2012 time frame, using generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations applied to dynamic panel data. The empirical data point to the negative role of corruption for the attraction of FDI to the Western Balkans. This research also suggests that corruption is negatively related with the income level in the region, where countries suffering higher levels of corruption have lower incomes per capita. The other channels in which corruption hinders economic development in the Western Balkans include distorted composition of government expenditure, negative current account balances, tax evasion, lack of competitiveness, and low levels of economic innovation. This article suggests that engaging in international marketing is the best way for the Western Balkans to increase economic competitiveness, improve skills, advance levels of technology, and reduce levels of corruption. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Impact of Corruption on the Development of Information and Communications Infrastructures in Bulgaria and Romania

Abstract

Bulgaria and Romania joined the European Union in January of 2007. Joining the EU is expected to promote the candidate country's economic growth, provide access to western technology, increase employment and attract foreign investments, the collective result of which is expected to be social, economic and technological advancement. In a perfect world where all factors contribute favorably those goals can be achieved. However, the detrimental impact of corruption on achieving national goals must also be addressed. This article examines linkages between information infrastructures and social development in Bulgaria and Romania as well as investment needs and financing were addressed with the objective to improve National Information Infrastructures (NII), expected payoffs from NII improvements were identified; the role of corruption in retarding information infrastructure development was also investigated. Using regression analysis the relationship between information infrastructures, social development, corruption, and economic development in Bulgaria and Romania were compared to those of the EU10 countries admitted into the EU in 2004 as well as to those in the original EU15 countries. It is concluded that given present conditions in Romania and Bulgaria development financing will have to come from internal and from World Bank sources rather than from foreign direct investment.     

国际贸易与技术进步关系初探

本文主要从国际贸易与技术进步的关系的角度探讨技术进步的决定因素,在柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,用劳动生产率的增长代表技术进步的变化,同时将外贸依存度和外资依存度作为衡量技术进步的内生变量,采用1985-2004年的年度数据进行计量分析。本文的模型结论如下:(1)资本对经济增长的贡献要远大于劳动力的贡献;(2)国内投资对技术进步的促进作用要大于外商直接投资。因此,要想更快地发展我国经济,一方面要加大资本的投入,另一方面要加强自主创新,尤其是国内技术的自主创新,加强引进技术的消化吸收和利用。     

FDI Inflow and Human Development: Analysis of FDI's Impact on Host Countries' Social Welfare and Infrastructure

We examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the mediating effects of country national governance on the welfare and knowledge infrastructure of host countries. Based on a five‐year anchored panel data of 175 countries producing over 9,000 observations, we find that in general FDI has a positive influence on both host country welfare and knowledge infrastructure and the national governance positively mediates these relationships.¹ © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The macroeconomics of commercial policy and the trade balance: A policy perspective

Given the continuing growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States, there is a growing interest in examining its impact on the rate of economic growth. The immense literature on economic growth in the United States is composed of studies that concentrate on measuring the domestic variables that affect U.S. economic growth. However, the impact of foreign direct investment on the economic growth of the United States has not received the attention that is deserves. The purpose of this study is: (1) to examine the determinants of economic growth in the United States over time, and (2) to see if there is any time-series support for the FDI-led growth hypothesis in the United States. To achieve these goals the study uses a model that is based on the postulates of de Mello. Employing a 40-year period of annual data, the model is estimated by using the Beach Mackinnon technique which corrects for autocorrelation. The estimation results suggest the following conclusions: 1. The major determinants of economic growth in the United States are total factor productivity growth, domestic investment growth, and foreign direct investment growth. 2. Causal relationships between foreign direct investment growth and economic growth is uni-directional, running from foreign direct investment to economic growth. 3. Causal relationships between foreign direct investment growth and total factor productivity growth is uni-directional, running from foreign direct investment to total factor productivity. These findings suggest that foreign direct investment growth has a significant impact on the United States economic growth. Additionally, foreign direct investment has a significant impact on total factor productivity in the United States, further contributing to the United States’ economic growth. This calls on the U.S. policy makers to devise policies that are conducive to increasing the amount of foreign direct investment in this country.     

美国国家安全体制下的中国海外投资保障研究——基于中海油收购优尼科案分析的视角

中海油(CNOOC)收购美国优尼科(UNOCAL)案是近年来我国所进行的最大的一次海外并购活动,由于美国国会要求对该收购进行严格的国家安全审查,最终迫使中海油放弃了此次收购计划。认真分析该案不仅有助于了解美国的国家安全审查规则和程序,也有助于我们采取因应措施,保障我国在海外投资中的利益。当前国际金融危机的背景下,美国政府推出了一系列的措施来刺激经济,对外资的进入相对放松了限制,这给中国投资者"走出去"提供了难得的机遇和挑战。因此研究这个问题也极具现实价值。     

中国区域一体化协议发展的特点与战略研究

大国的经济外交时代已然到来，而外商直接投资在中国实现工业化和经济发展的过程中起着至关重要的作用。因此，应从中国自身的区域一体化协议的发展特点出发，将外商直接投资因素包含到制定区域经济一体化的战略过程中去，在此基础上研究并制定适合中国的区域一体化协议发展战略，主要是：有选择地开展与发达国家的区域一体化谈判，加强与西亚地区的区域经济合作和在区域一体化协议中重点突出服务业投资自由化。     

Restructuring FDI policy in emerging economies: The republic of Korea case

This article presents several frameworks for examining the effect of a national financial crisis as a stimulus for economic reform and applies them to the Korean case 1997–2001. The author lists significant dimensions of reform and restructuring, presents a schema showing macro reform measures and some possible micro ramifications regarding a country's policies toward incoming foreign direct investment, and extends the schema to the concept of a trade‐off between macro and micro determinants of a country's attractiveness to foreign direct investment. There is also a chart highlighting the extent of government allowance of foreign equity participation. The author uses all these concepts to analyze the Republic of Korea's response to the financial crisis of 1997–1999. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

山东省与江苏省对外直接投资差异及影响因素研究

山东、江苏作为中国的经济大省,其对外直接投资已成为推动经济发展的重要因素。基于2008—2017年山东省17地市、江苏省13地市对外直接投资面板数据,利用泰尔指数对两省对外直接投资存在的总体区域间差异进行衡量,并针对对外直接投资差异的相关影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:工业发展水平、人力资源成本、研发水平和金融发展规模对山东省对外直接投资影响显著,经济发展水平、出口贸易和外商直接投资对山东省对外直接投资影响不显著;人力资源成本、出口贸易对江苏省对外直接投资影响显著,研发水平、工业发展水平、经济发展水平、外商直接投资以及金融发展规模影响不显著,分析后提出相关建议。