Is the Average Investor Smarter than the Average Euro?

In this study, we collect a unique data set of Spanish domestic equity funds for the period 1999–2006 to test the existence of the well-known “smart money” effect. Our focus is to test whether superior performance follows fund flows, demonstrating investor skills, and whether the results are robust for aggregate portfolio analysis and for individual fund analysis. Empirical evidence shows that investor abilities reported by aggregate portfolio analysis are not very evident from a fund-level perspective. This study provides two major contributions to the literature: the separate consideration of purchases and redemptions, and the proposal of a “smart investor” effect which considers investor movements instead of traditional money flows. Results show that investors’ selling decisions are less smart than their buying decisions and that investors, as individuals, are not significantly smarter than money.     

The relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in Asian markets: A quantile regression approach

This paper uses the data of six Asian countries to estimate the relationship between stock price index and exchange rate. According to the portfolio balance effect, these two variables should be negatively related. However, since the evidence from traditional ordinary least squares estimation is not favorable, the quantile regression model is adopted to observe the various relationships between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results show an interesting pattern in the relation of these two markets in Asia, which indicates that the negative relation between stock and foreign exchange markets is more obvious when exchange rates are extremely high or low.     

The effect of estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice

This paper determines the effect of estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice under uncertainty. In most realistic problems, the parameters of return distributions are unknown and are estimated using available economic data. Traditional analysis neglects estimation risk by treating the estimated parameters as if they were the true parameters to determine the optimal choice under uncertainty. We show that for normally distributed returns and ‘non-informative’ or ‘invariant’ priors, the admissible set of portfolios taking the estimation uncertainty into account is identical to that given by traditional analysis. However, as a result of estimation risk, the optimal portfolio choice differs from that obtained by traditional analysis. For other plausible priors, the admissible set, and consequently the optimal choice, is shown to differ from that in traditional analysis.     

The performance of model based option trading strategies

This paper analyzes returns to trading strategies in options markets that exploit information given by a theoretical asset pricing model. We examine trading strategies in which a positive portfolio weight is assigned to assets which market prices exceed the price of a theoretical asset pricing model. We investigate portfolio rules which mimic standard mean-variance analysis is used to construct optimal model based portfolio weights. In essence, these portfolio rules allow estimation risk, as well as price risk to be approximately hedged. An empirical exercise shows that the portfolio rules give out-of-sample Sharpe ratios exceeding unity for S&P 500 options. Portfolio returns have no discernible correlation with systematic risk factors, which is troubling for traditional risk based asset pricing explanations.     

Currency substitution, capital mobility and money demand

This paper re-examines the currency substitution (CS) issue by specifying a general portfolio balance (PB) model where domestic residents' demand for foreign money is distinguished from their demands for foreign non-monetary assets. The latter possibility, which reflects international capital mobility as opposed to CS per se, is already a key feature in the open-economy macro literature. The inclusion of foreign money leaves the usual asset demand functions unchanged (in the PB model that ignores CS), at least as far as the appropriate rate-of-return arguments and their signs are concerned. Although this suggests that CS is of limited importance in macro modelling, it implication for the estimation of money demand functions is pursued. An initial attempt is made to empirically isolate the separate efects of high capital mobility and currency substitution for Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The results, while not conclusive due to high multicollinearity problems, bring into question the empirical as well as the theoretical relevance of currency substitution.     

An annual money demand and supply model for the U.S.: 1924–1940/1949–1966

This paper describes the monetary sector in the Hickman-Ceen medium-range forecasting model, which is estimated on annual data from 1924 to 1966. A characterization of the individual bank as a profit maximizing firm is used to derive a ‘portfolio-balance’ model of the money supply mechanism. The estimation results: suggest that, for the sample period at least, M2 is the appropriate definition of money; corroborate earlier findings that there is no evidence of a so-called ‘low-level liquidity trap’ in the Thirties; confirm the reliability of earlier annual- data estimates of the demand for money; and provide indirect evidence that non-monetary disturbances to macroeconomic equilibrium were relatively unimportant during the sample period.     

Portfolio and financing adjustments for U.S. banks: Some empirical evidence

This paper presents a model of the portfolio and financing adjustments of U.S. banks over the business cycle. At the core of the model is a moral hazard problem between depositors/bank regulators and stockholders. The solution to this problem takes the form of shared management of the bank. Stockholders manage the bank's portfolio and the regulator manages the financing of the portfolio. The model predicts that portfolio adjustments are made to conform to the risk aversion of shareholders and financing adjustments are made to offset changes in portfolio risk. Regression evidence for 1955–2000 fails to reject these predictions.     

Markowitz投资组合模型的最小二乘算法

本文从一个新的视角来研究Markowitz均值—方差模型。通过将Markowitz均值—方差模型表述为约束最小二乘问题,继而使用约束最小二乘问题的算法研究了协方差矩阵正定和半正定时模型的求解问题,我们给出了计算投资组合有效前沿及最小方差组合的新算法。实证分析表明：最小二乘算法在计算稳定和计算速度方面优于传统算法。     

Are paper winners gamblers? Evidence from Australian retail investors

This study examines stock market gambling using a comprehensive set of investor characteristics and past portfolio performance measures. We find that retail investors overinvest in ‘lottery stocks’, stocks with gambling‐like properties. Significant portfolio underperformance is the result of gambling through lottery stocks. Investors are more likely to gamble following recent portfolio paper gains, regardless of realised performance, providing new evidence that paper gains trigger a house money effect. Investors trading greater values or holding more stocks, and older and female investors, are less likely to invest in lottery stocks.     

Demand for money in open economies

The demand for real cash balances deduced from an underlying portfolio model of the financial market is shown to depend upon domestic variables and foreign monetary developments. The model is estimated using quarterly postwar data for Canada, Germany, UK and US. There is clear evidence that demand for money is affected not only by changes in domestic variables such as permanent income, domestic interest rate and price expectations but also by fluctuations in exchange rate expectations and foreign interest rates. The conclusion, that domestic monetary policy is fairly ineffective and domestic financial markets are highly vulnerable to changes in foreign financial and monetary developments need to be modified in light of the results presented in this paper.     

ASSET-ALLOCATION DECISIONS WHEN RISK IS CHANGING

Various risk estimation methods have been proposed in response to evidence that risk is changing. We investigate the effect of alternative risk-estimation methods in the context of asset-allocation decisions that seek to minimize portfolio risk. The risk measures considered include the traditional fixed-window method, exponential smoothing, and GARCH. Our findings confirm that the choice of risk measure can make a significant difference to the efficiency of asset-allocation decisions and therefore to investment outcomes and fund rankings. We find that the traditional fixed-window method is rarely optimal and that measures that account for volatility clustering are generally preferable.     

Valuation of Portfolio Credit Derivatives with Default Intensities Using the Vasicek Model

We present a methodology for valuing portfolio credit derivatives under a reduced form model for which the default intensity processes of risk assets follow the one-factor Vasicek model. A closed-form solution of joint survival time distribution is obtained. The solution is applied to value credit derivatives of a credit default swap index and collateralized debt obligation. The limitation of methods using the Vasicek model is discussed. We propose that the method is valid and efficient for a portfolio with small-scale correlated risk assets, for which the acceptable size is much greater than for the traditional method. Numerical examples and parameter analysis are also presented.     

Financial capital movements and central bank behavior in a two-country,short-run portfolio balance model

This paper analyzes financial capital movements in a two-country, short-run, portfolio balance model which includes two securities that are imperfect substitutes. Following a disturbance, equilibrium is, in general, reattained, but the effects on interest rates, money supplies, and international reserve holdings depend on the monetary and reserve asset management policies of the two central banks. Special attention is focused on the case in which one central bank holds its international reserves in the form of ‘key currency’ securities, thereby sterilizing for the ‘key currency’ country. There are several applications of the central result that, for any disturbance, the less changes in international reserves are allowed to affect money supplies, the larger the change in reserves required to reestablish equilibrium.     

The Three‐Factor Model: A Practitioner's Guide

The three‐factor model (3FM) has slowly but steadily become a popular alternative to the CAPM for measuring risk from the perspective of both corporate finance and portfolio management. The evidence clearly shows a negative relationship between market capitalization and returns, and a positive relationship between the book‐to‐market ratio and returns. Under the assumption that size and value are risk factors, the 3FM incorporates a market risk premium, a size premium, and a value premium into a model that aims to assess risk in a more comprehensive way, and ultimately to provide a more reliable estimation of required return. The required return produced by the 3FM has corporate finance applications (such as cost of capital estimation, project evaluation, and firm valuation) as well as portfolio management applications (such as performance evaluation). This article discusses the foundations and intuition behind the 3FM, as well as its application to the estimation of the cost of equity and excess returns.     

Asset Pricing and Expected Inflation

This paper provides an equilibrium model in which expected real returns on common stocks are negatively related to expected inflation and money growth. It is shown that the fall in real wealth associated with an increase in expected inflation decreases the real rate of interest and the expected real rate of return of the market portfolio. The expected real rate of return of the market portfolio falls less, for a given increase in expected inflation, when the increase in expected inflation is caused by an increase in money growth rather than by a worsening of the investment opportunity set. The model has empirical implications for the effect of a change in expected inflation on the cross-sectional distribution of asset returns and can help to understand why assets whose return covaries positively with expected inflation may have lower expected returns. The model also agrees with explanations advanced by Fama [5] and Geske and Roll [10] for the negative relation between stock returns and inflation.     

Should investors include Bitcoin in their portfolios? A portfolio theory approach

Many papers in recent years have examined the benefits of adding alternative assets to traditional portfolios containing stocks and bonds. Bitcoin has emerged as a new alternative investment for investors which has attracted much attention from the media and investors alike. However relatively little is known about the investment benefits of Bitcoin and therefore this paper examines the benefit of including Bitcoin in a traditional benchmark portfolio of stocks and bonds. Specially, we employ data up to June 2018 and analyse the potential out-of-sample portfolio benefits resulting from including Bitcoin in a stock-bond portfolio for a range of eight popular asset allocation strategies. The out-of-sample analysis shows that, across all different asset allocation strategies and risk aversions, the benefits of Bitcoin are quite considerable with substantially higher risk-adjusted returns. Our results are robust to rolling estimation windows, the incorporation of transaction costs, the inclusion of a commodity portfolio, alternative indices, short-selling as well as two additional optimization techniques including higher moments with (and without) variance-based constraints (VBCs). Therefore, our results suggest that investors should include Bitcoin in their portfolio as it generates substantial higher risk-adjusted returns.     

Cash demand,liquidation costs and capital market equilibrium under uncertainty

In this paper, the portfolio and the liquidity planning problems are unified and analyzed in one model. Stochastic cash demands have a significant impact on both the composition of an individual's optimal portfolio and the pricing of capital assets in market equilibrium. The derived capital asset pricing model with cash demands and liquidation costs shows that both the market price of risk and the systematic risk of an asset are affected by the aggregate cash demands and liquidity risk. The modified model does not require that all investors hold an identical risky portfolio as implied by the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin model. Furthermore, it provides a possible explanation for the noted discrepancies between the empirical evidence and the prediction of the traditional capital asset pricing model.     

Reciprocal social influence on investment decisions: behavioral evidence from a group of mutual fund managers

In this paper, I analyze reciprocal social influence on investment decisions in an international group of roughly 2,000 mutual fund managers who invested in companies in the DAX30. Using a robust estimation procedure, I provide empirical evidence that the average fund manager puts 0.69 % more portfolio weight on a particular stock if his or her peers, on average, assign a weight to the corresponding position that is 1 % higher compared to other stocks in the portfolio. The dynamics of this influence on choice of portfolio weights suggest that fund managers adjust their behavior based on the prevailing market situation and are more strongly influenced by others in times of an economic downturn. Analyzing the working locations of the fund managers, I conclude that more than 90 % of the magnitude of influence stems from social learning. Although this form of influence varies a great deal over time, the magnitude of influence resulting from the exchange of opinions is more or less constant.     

On measuring the nearness of near moneys revisited

In this paper we re-examine the theoretical foundations and empirical estimation of models which incorporate a CES utility function to study the nearness of money substitutes. We show that previous studies using these models have been subject to a number of theoretical and empirical flaws. The result of these flaws has been to overestimate the degree of substitutability between money and near money assets. We show that when these errors are corrected, estimates of substitution elasticities are several times smaller than even those of the most recent studies and therefore are more in line with estimates from more traditional demand for money studies.