External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate

We examine the link between the net foreign asset position, the trade balance and the real exchange rate. In particular, we decompose the impact of a country's net foreign asset position (‘external wealth’) on its long-run real exchange rate into two mechanisms: the relation between external wealth and the trade balance; and, holding fixed other determinants, a negative relation between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. We also provide additional evidence that the relative price of nontradables is an important channel linking the trade balance and the real exchange rate.     

Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel,wealth effect and agent heterogeneity

As far as the control of inflation is concerned, the interest rate is the most important monetary instrument. This paper examines the effectiveness of the interest rate policy in controlling inflation. The model utilized in this paper considers both demand and supply side effects of interest rate policy. These effects are used to derive not only the relevant impulse response functions but also the welfare loss to the society that arises from the supply side shocks. Based on their ability to control inflation and minimization of the overall welfare loss to the society, three policies are compared: (i) monetary policy with commitment, (ii) Taylor's rule, and (iii) inflation targeting. We argue that, in the presence of a cost channel, it is imperative that the interest rate policy is used with restraint. Our results also suggest that ignoring the cost channel of monetary policy can lead to significant under-estimation of the social welfare loss.     

Investment,interest rate rules,and equilibrium determinacy

Summary. By adding endogenous investment to a flexible-price, money-in-the-utility-function model, this paper studies the role that physical capital plays in stabilizing the real side of the economy when the monetary authority follows interest-rate feedback rules. We show that with inelastic labor supply equilibrium uniqueness is ensured under both active and passive monetary policies. For the case where money affects both preferences and technology, the uniqueness result remains true under active monetary policy. With endogenous labor supply, the uniqueness result holds again regardless of the stance of monetary policies for the case with separable leisure, but indeterminacy remains likely under both active and passive monetary policies when leisure is nonseparable.Received: 19 December 2001, Revised: 12 May 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: E52, O42.We are grateful to Jess Benhabib and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. Correspondence to: C.K. Yip     

The nominal rate of interest, the rate of return on money, and inflationary expectations

This paper offers two modifications to the standard comparative-static analysis that help explain why nominal interest rates may either over- or under-adjust to a change in inflationary expectations, even in full general equilibrium: the inclusion of the real rate of return to money balances in commodity demand functions, and the presence of differing costs of obtaining information. In brief, the first factor may explain why nominal interest rates could over-adjust to a change in inflationary expectations, while the second may substitute for real balance effects in limiting the upward adjustment of nominal rates.     

Noisy information, interest rate shocks and the Great Moderation

In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the Great Moderation is partly the result of a less activist monetary policy. We simulate a New Keynesian model in which the central bank can only observe a noisy estimate of the output gap and find that the less pronounced reaction of the Federal Reserve to output gap fluctuations since 1979 can account for a substantial part of the reduction in the standard deviation of GDP associated with the Great Moderation. Our simulations are consistent with the empirically documented smaller magnitude and impact of interest rate shocks since the early 1980s.     

Estimating the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money in low interest rate environments

We estimate the time profile of the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money that is theoretically derived from a money-in-the-utility-function (MIUF) model. This semi-elasticity increases to infinity as interest rates fall to zero. Therefore, the use of this semi-elasticity has an advantage when examining the highly interest-elastic demand for money in low interest rate environments. Using Japanese and U.S. data, we find that the semi-elasticity increases exponentially in low interest rate environments. For example, the highest value of the semi-elasticity in Japan is observed in 2005, and is approximately 350 times larger than the value in 1990.     

Fixed capital cost,depreciation multiplier and the rate of interest

Suppose in an economy with zero interest rate five new trucks are bought and afterwards the fleet is renewed by investing the annual depreciation quotas. The service life of a truck is four years. What will be the stationary size of the fleet? The assumed answer is four trucks. The correct answer is eight trucks. The difference is measured by a coefficient called depreciation multiplier. The value of the depreciation multiplier is examined for three typical time profiles of fixed assets, and its limits are found to be 1 ?μ?2. It is then shown how the rate of interest can be interpreted as a rate of growth in an economy with unchanged technology. If the rate of interest is made equal to the rate of growth of the economy, the ratio of discounted values of brand new fixed assets and fixed assets of balanced age-distribution is equal to the ratio between gross and net capital in the growing economy with no interest rate.     

Unit roots,interest rate spreads,and inflation forecasts

Recent research suggests that long-term interest rate spreads provide information that can be useful in forecasting inflation, but that the spread between the three-month and six-month Treasury bill rates appears to have little forecasting ability. This paper uses the concepts of unit roots and cointegration to examine the failure of the short-term T-bill spread to forecast inflation. The results suggest that the interest rate spread has little forecasting value because inflation and the interest rate spread exhibit distinctly different time-series properties.     

Inflation,money, interest rate,exchange rate,and casuality: the case of Egypt,Morocco, and Tunisia

This study provides further evidence of the inflationary efects of the rates of growth of money supply, gross domestic product, efective exchange rate, and imported inflation for Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia using quarterly data from 1964 to 1990. In addition, it examines the Granger causality between inflation and money supply as well as between inflation and the real exchange rate in the countries under consideration. Most of the results are consistent with extant theory and empirical evidence.     

Labor market search, sticky prices, and interest rate policies

What accounts for the significant real effects of monetary policy shocks? And what accounts for the persistent and hump shaped responses of output and inflation in response to such shocks? These questions are investigated in a model that incorporates labor market search, habit persistence, sticky prices, and policy inertia. While habit persistence and price stickiness are important for the hump shaped output response and the long, drawn out inflation response, respectively, labor market frictions increase the output response and reduce the inflation response relative to an otherwise similar model based on a Walrasian labor market. Significantly, policy inertia itself is found to be the most important factor in accounting for the magnitude of the output effects of policy shocks in the model.     

Zero lower bound,ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis

We explore whether the ECB’s interest rate setting behaviour changed during the financial crisis by estimating reaction functions over the period 1999–2010, allowing for a smooth transition from one set of parameters to another. The estimates show a swift change in the months following the collapse of Lehman brothers. The ECB appears to have cut rates more aggressively than expected solely on the basis of the worsening of macroeconomic conditions, consistent with the theoretical literature on optimal monetary policy in the vicinity of the zero bound.     

Symmetric versus asymmetric interest rate adjustment mechanisms: The prime rate,below-prime lending and the commercial paper rate

Alternative interest rate adjustment mechanisms are considered to explain variation in the spread between the prime rate and the commercial paper rate and the phenomenon of below-prime lending.     

Exchange rate indeterminacy in portfolio balance, Mundell-Fleming and uncovered interest rate parity models

With full stock/flow accounting respected, the two-country openeconomy portfolio balance model has just two independent equationsfor asset market clearing. It can determine home and foreigninterest rates but not the exchange rate. If asset market equilibriavary smoothly over time, the balance of payments equation inthe Mundell–Fleming model is not independent and cannotset the exchange rate either. The familiar fixed reserves/‘floatingrate’ vs endogenous reserves/‘fixed rate’dichotomy does not exist, and ‘fundamentals-based’econometric models of the exchange rate are bound to fail. Analternative is a two-country IS/LM model with exchange ratedynamics added. Its dynamic properties under uncovered interestrate parity are briefly explored.     

Financial frictions,interest rate dynamics,and international business cycle synchronization

A two‐country real business cycle model with national endogenous borrowing constraints and working capital requirements can account for the high level of international co‐movements. The effects of technology shocks are transmitted internationally through the dynamics of the interest rate. Specifically, the borrowing mechanism brings about a wedge between the real interest rate and the expected marginal product of capital, such that interest rates fall following positive technology shocks. A lower interest rate induces more investment by Foreign firms, which in turn contribute to greater synchronization of economic activities across countries. Moreover, terms of trade amplify the effects of technology shocks.     

On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters

It is not uncommon to observe the published forecasts of economic commentators closely bunched together over long periods of time. In our case, the phenomenon is observed for eight national panels of economists who report monthly forecasts. A framework is developed that conveniently nests within it several simple, yet plausible forecasting rules, and allows us to explore the extent of the clustering phenomenon. First version received: June 1999/Final version received: February 2001     

A clarification of the interest rate parity theorem

Recognition of the role of market-makers in the euro-deposit and exchange markets, makes it necessary to re-formulate the interest rate parity theorem's predicted equilibrium relationship between forward exchange rates and interest rates in terms of a set of inequalities, rather than an equation. A euro-bank quotes typically for two-way business in euro-currency deposits swaps, outright forward exchange and spot exchange. It must decide whether to quote for each directly or indirectly, by combining quotes from two or more of the other markets. Where indirect (satellite) quotation prevails the inequalities collapse into continuous identities. Market conditions which favour direct compared to indirect quotation are assessed.