Price Momentum and Trading Volume

This study shows that past trading volume provides an important link between 'momentum' and 'value' strategies. Specifically, we find that firms with high (low) past turnover ratios exhibit many glamour (value) characteristics, earn lower (higher) future returns, and have consistently more negative (positive) earnings surprises over the next eight quarters. Past trading volume also predicts both the magnitude and persistence of price momentum. Specifically, price momentum effects reverse over the next five years, and high (low) volume winners (losers) experience faster reversals. Collectively, our findings show that past volume helps to reconcile intermediate-horizon 'underreaction' and long-horizon 'overreaction' effects.     

A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets

We model a market populated by two groups of boundedly rational agents: "newswatchers" and "momentum traders." Each newswatcher observes some private information, but fails to extract other newswatchers' information from prices. If information diffuses gradually across the population, prices underreact in the short run. The underreaction means that the momentum traders can profit by trend-chasing. However, if they can only implement simple (i.e., univariate) strategies, their attempts at arbitrage must inevitably lead to overreaction at long horizons. In addition to providing a unified account of under- and overreactions, the model generates several other distinctive implications.     

我国证券投资基金动量和反向投资策略实证研究

本文依据行为金融学的理论与方法,选取2006第1季度到2008年第4季度十二期的数据,选择30只股票型开放式证券投资基金作为研究样本,通过ITM模型对开放式基金动量和反向两种投资策略进行实证研究。针对得出的结果进行了理论上的分析,并结合我国股市现状,为进一步提高基金投资业绩提出了建设性的意见。     

中国金融机构利率衍生产品交易:业务体系的框架性设计

本文在考察各国中央银行衍生产品交易监管法规的基础上,结合中国金融市场的各种特征与发展趋势,对中国金融机构开办利率衍生产品交易所需的业务体系框架进行了总体性设计,对业务体系中的市场风险控制、信用风险控制等关键问题结合中国实际提出了解决思路与具体规划。     

The Impact of Legal and Political Institutions on Equity Trading Costs: A Cross-Country Analysis

We conjecture that macro-level institutions affect equity tradingcosts through their impact on information risk and investorparticipation. In a study of trading costs for 412 NYSE-listedAmerican Depository Receipts (ADRs) from 44 countries, we findthat, after controlling for firm-level determinants of tradingcosts, effective spreads and price impact of trades are significantlylower for stocks from countries with better ratings for judicialefficiency, accounting standards, and political stability. Tradingcosts are significantly higher for stocks from French civillaw countries than from common law countries. Overall, we concludethat improvements in legal and political institutions will lowerthe cost of liquidity in financial markets.     

International Momentum Strategies

International equity markets exhibit medium-term return continuation. Between 1980 and 1995 an internationally diversified portfolio of past medium-term Winners outperforms a portfolio of medium-term Losers after correcting for risk by more than 1 percent per month. Return continuation is present in all twelve sample countries and lasts on average for about one year. Return continuation is negatively related to firm size, but is not limited to small firms. The international momentum returns are correlated with those of the United States which suggests that exposure to a common factor may drive the profitability of momentum strategies.     

Tax Expense Momentum

We investigate the joint hypothesis that (1) tax expense contains information about core profitability that is incremental to reported earnings and (2) that information is reflected in stock prices with a delay. We find that seasonally differenced quarterly tax expense, our proxy for tax expense surprise, is related positively to future returns. This anomaly is separate from previously documented pricing anomalies based on financial and tax variables. Additional investigation reveals that tax expense surprise is related positively to changes in future quarterly earnings and tax expense, and both those future changes are related positively to future returns. While the returns to investing in predictable future earnings changes has been documented before, these results suggest that predicting changes in future tax expense also generates incremental future returns.     

Rational Momentum Effects

Momentum effects in stock returns need not imply investor irrationality, heterogeneous information, or market frictions. A simple, single-firm model with a standard pricing kernel can produce such effects when expected dividend growth rates vary over time. An enhanced model, under which persistent growth rate shocks occur episodically, can match many of the features documented by the empirical research. The same basic mechanism could potentially account for underreaction anomalies in general.     

Predatory Trading

This paper studies predatory trading, trading that induces and/or exploits the need of other investors to reduce their positions. We show that if one trader needs to sell, others also sell and subsequently buy back the asset. This leads to price overshooting and a reduced liquidation value for the distressed trader. Hence, the market is illiquid when liquidity is most needed. Further, a trader profits from triggering another trader's crisis, and the crisis can spill over across traders and across markets.     

Value and Momentum Everywhere

We find consistent value and momentum return premia across eight diverse markets and asset classes, and a strong common factor structure among their returns. Value and momentum returns correlate more strongly across asset classes than passive exposures to the asset classes, but value and momentum are negatively correlated with each other, both within and across asset classes. Our results indicate the presence of common global risks that we characterize with a three‐factor model. Global funding liquidity risk is a partial source of these patterns, which are identifiable only when examining value and momentum jointly across markets. Our findings present a challenge to existing behavioral, institutional, and rational asset pricing theories that largely focus on U.S. equities.     

Market States and Momentum

We test overreaction theories of short-run momentum and long-run reversal in the cross section of stock returns. Momentum profits depend on the state of the market, as predicted. From 1929 to 1995, the mean monthly momentum profit following positive market returns is 0.93%, whereas the mean profit following negative market returns is −0.37%. The up-market momentum reverses in the long-run. Our results are robust to the conditioning information in macroeconomic factors. Moreover, we find that macroeconomic factors are unable to explain momentum profits after simple methodological adjustments to take account of microstructure concerns.     

Momentum and Credit Rating

This paper establishes a robust link between momentum and credit rating. Momentum profitability is large and significant among low‐grade firms, but it is nonexistent among high‐grade firms. The momentum payoffs documented in the literature are generated by low‐grade firms that account for less than 4% of the overall market capitalization of rated firms. The momentum payoff differential across credit rating groups is unexplained by firm size, firm age, analyst forecast dispersion, leverage, return volatility, and cash flow volatility.     

Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors

We document strong positive correlation between changes in institutional ownership and returns measured over the same period. The result suggests that either institutional investors positive-feedback trade more than individual investors or institutional herding impacts prices more than herding by individual investors. We find evidence that both factors play a role in explaining the relation. We find no evidence, however, of return mean-reversion in the year following large changes in institutional ownership—stocks institutional investors purchase subsequently outperform those they sell. Moreover, institutional herding is positively correlated with lag returns and appears to be related to stock return momentum.     

林业碳汇助推绿色奥运

6月15日,全国进入2008年节能宣传周,在此期间,北京市开展了一系列的节能宣传活动,其中以“2008年北京市绿色照明工程启动仪式暨高效照明产品进社区”宣传活动尤为引人注目。本次活动推出的节能灯最大限度地让利于民,“仅仅消费一元钱就能使用高效的节能灯”,这是北京市第一次采用财政手段支持涉及广大消费者的终端节能产品,使高效省电的节能灯在北京每个家庭亮起来,真正做成了一项名副其实的“亮化工程”。本刊就此采访了北京市发展和改革委员会环资处处长杨智慧。     

Trading strategies generated pathwise by functions of market weights

Finance and Stochastics - Twenty years ago, E.R. Fernholz introduced the notion of “functional generation” to construct a variety of portfolios solely in terms of the individual...     

Momentum in Residential Real Estate

This paper examines whether there is return momentum in residential real estate in the U.S. Case and Shiller (American economic review 79(1):128–137, 1989) document evidence of positive return correlation in four U.S. cities. Similar to Jegadeesh and Titman’s (Journal of finance 56:699–720, 1993) stock market momentum paper, we construct long-short zero cost investment portfolios from more than 380 metropolitan areas based on their lagged returns. Our results show that momentum of returns in the U.S. residential housing is statistically significant and economically meaningful during our 1983 to 2008 sample period. On average, zero cost investment portfolios that buy past winning housing markets and short sell past losing markets earn up to 8.92% annually. Our results are robust to different sub-periods and more pronounced in the Northeast and West regions. While zero cost portfolios of residential real estate indices is not a tradable strategy, the implications of our results can be useful for builders, potential home owners, mortgage originators and traders of real estate options.     

Learning from Trading

The incorporation of diverse information into asset prices isempirically examined in an actual securities market with multiplerounds of trade. Using prices of Israeli index and nominal bondsof equal maturity, we calculate implied expectations of inflationthat has already occurred but for which the official statistichas not yet been announced. Learning is defined as the convergenceof these expectations to the actual level of inflation in theperiod after the end of the month but before the announcementof the official statistic. We find that the variance of theinflation expectation errors decreases with trading days inthis period. The decline in the variance suggests that investorslearn, by repeatedly observing prices, about the distributionof other investors' information. We also find a positive relationbetween the dispersion of relative price changes and the sizeof the inflation-expectation errors on the first round of trade.The correlation diminishes as investors learn about the distributionof inflation information in the economy.     

美国的内线交易法

<正>从事股票交易的人都知道,他投资的公司任何可能影响股票价格的动态都是极其宝贵的,因为它或是带来丰厚的利润,或是造成巨大的损失。因此,股票持有人要随时把握公司的财政动态,及时买入或卖出股票。但是,如果有人利用工作之     

Optimal Liquidity Trading

A liquidity trader wishes to trade a fixed number of shares within a certain time horizon and to minimize the mean and variance of the costs of trading. Explicit formulas for the optimal trading strategies show that risk-averse liquidity traders reduce their order sizes over time and execute a higher fraction of their total trading volume in early periods when price volatility or liquidity increases. In the presence of transaction fees, traders want to trade less often when either price volatility or liquidity goes up or when the speed of price reversion declines. In the multi-asset case, price effects across assets have a substantial impact on trading behavior.We are grateful to Prajit Dutta and Larry Glosten for numerous conversations and comments and to Marc Lipson for help with the Plexus data. Comments and suggestions of the referee and the editor, Josef Zechner, helped us improve the paper. We also thank the participants of the Chicago Board of Trade 13th Annual European Futures Research Symposium 2000 and the participants of the EFA Annual Meetings 2001.