Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability

The Basel Capital Accord (pillar 3) states that disclosure of information (transparency) is essential to financial stability. This study analyzes, through inflation reports, the disclosure of information from the Central Bank of Brazil concerning the credit market. We consider credit risk and capital buffers as measures of financial stability in this analysis. Furthermore, in order to measure the perception of the monetary authority on the credit market, we built two indices based on the central bank’s communication on credit development. We performed a panel data analysis based on a sample of 125 banks for the period from June 1999 to September 2014 (7000 observations). The findings suggest that central bank communication regarding expectations concerning the credit market contributes to financial stability. Therefore, this kind of communication of central banks (about credit development) may constitute an important macroprudential tool to improve financial stability.     

Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context

In this paper, output gaps that include financial cycle information are evaluated against policy analysis models used by the Colombian central bank. This is an important feature, since policy-related models are the only relevant yardstick and emerging economies (such as Colombia) have been historically more vulnerable to financial imbalances. Unlike previous works, finance-neutral gaps were evaluated in a monetary policy context exactly as it is routinely performed by a central bank. The distribution of output gap revisions is analyzed and a metric to compare real-time robustness across models is developed. This metric constitutes a novel way to summarize the distribution of real-time uncertainty around output gaps, and policymakers should employ it for comparison purposes. Also, the real-time policy performance of finance-neutral gaps is studied, separating suggested ex post from operational ex ante usefulness. The results suggest that finance-neutral gaps are neither more robust in real time nor more operationally useful than the benchmark estimates. These results have important implications for policymakers and for the relevant literature.     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and capital mobility: The role of the recent financial crisis

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle has long been debated as it relates to the important topics of capital mobility and how to determine levels of investment. Adopting a recursive approach and panel techniques, this paper explores the impacts of the recent financial crisis on the validity of the puzzle. The OECD’s saving-investment correlation dropped to a record low just before the 2008 crisis began, reflecting the perceived ‘end’ of the FH puzzle in some studies. But since the onset of the crisis, our results indicate that this correlation has increased, suggesting the puzzle’s return. The puzzle for net capital-importing and net capital-exporting countries differs, with the relationship being more significant for the exporters compared to the importers, reflecting the asymmetry in terms of the degree of shocks across countries.     

The effects of foreign exchange and monetary policies in Russia

This paper examines the effects of Russian foreign exchange and monetary policies under conditions of abundant natural resources during the period 1999–2011 using structural VAR models. The results suggest that monetary policy shocks, which are identified as money supply disturbances, have a persistent effect on real output, and more than half of the volatility in real output can be explained by changes in the money supply. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that stock prices are a more significant transmission channel of monetary policy than bank loans.     

International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries

We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have a greater effect than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.     

Hoarding international reserves versus a Pigovian tax-cum-subsidy scheme: Reflections on the deleveraging crisis of 2008-2009, and a cost benefit analysis

We outline the case for supporting self-insurance by imposing a tax on external borrowing in a model of an emerging market. Entrepreneurs finance tangible investments via bank intermediation of foreign borrowing, exposing the economy to negative fire-sale externalities at times of deleveraging; a risk that increases with the ratio of aggregate external borrowing to international reserves. Price taking economic agents ignore their marginal impact on the expected cost of a deleveraging crisis. The optimal borrowing tax reduces the distorted activity, external borrowing, and induces borrowers to co-finance the precautionary hoarding of international reserves.     

The impact of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior: Evidence from the lab

We investigate the effect of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior in experimental asset markets. We introduce the possibility of investing in interest bearing bonds to the widely used laboratory asset market design of Smith et al. (1988). Treatment groups face a variable interest rate policy which depends on asset prices, while control groups are subjected to a constant interest rate. We observe a strong impact of our interest rate policy on liquidity in the stock market but only a small impact on bubbles. However, we find that announcing the possibility of reserve requirements significantly reduces bubbles.     

Exchange rate dynamics and their effect on macroeconomic volatility in selected CEE countries

To understand the potential for forming an optimum currency area it is important to investigate the origins of macroeconomic volatility. We focus on the contribution of real exchange rate shocks to macroeconomic volatility in selected Central and Eastern European countries. The contribution of real exchange rate shocks relative to other shocks allows us to evaluate whether the real exchange rate is a source of volatility or a buffer against shocks, as the theory suggests. The identification of the contributions is based on variance decomposition in two-country structural VAR models, which are identified by the sign restriction method. For most of the countries in the sample, shocks are predominantly symmetric relative to their effective counterpart, although the role of non-symmetric shocks is non-negligible. In general, for all the countries considered except Bulgaria and Slovenia, the real exchange rate does not generate large volatility over the business cycle and, with the exception of Bulgaria and Romania, is mostly driven by the non-symmetric shocks. These results are consistent with the real exchange rate having a shock-absorbing nature.     

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and staggered price and wage determination in a model with firm-specific labor

We develop a DSGE model with firm-specific labor where wage and price setting are subject to Calvo-type staggering. This is in general an intractable problem due to complicated intertemporal dependencies between price and wage decisions. However, the problem is significantly simplified if we, in line with empirical evidence, assume that prices can be changed whenever wages are. We show that the price- and wage-setting relationships are substantially altered by the introduction of firm-specific labor. Specifically, the inflation response is substantially dampened, whereas the wage inflation response is increased as compared to models with freely mobile labor. These distinctive features of the model with firm-specific labor are supported by empirical evidence from a structural VAR.     

Real estate collateral value and investment: The case of China

Previous research on the United States and Japan finds economically large impacts of changing real estate collateral value on firm investment that amplified the business cycles of those countries. Working with unique data on land values in 35 major Chinese markets and a panel of firms outside the real estate industry, we estimate investment equations that yield no evidence of a collateral channel effect. Further analysis indicates that China’s debt is not characterized by the frictions that give rise to collateral channel effects elsewhere. Essentially, financially constrained borrowers appear able credibly to commit to repay debt in China. While there is no impact on investment via the collateral channel, our results should not be interpreted as implying there will be no negative fallout from a potential real estate bust on the Chinese economy. There likely would be, but through different channels.     

Property rights protection,financial access and corporate R&D: Evidence from a large representative sample of Chinese firms

The motivation of this paper is to explore why corporate R&D investments are significantly different under similar institutional backgrounds. Our estimates not only confirm a positive relationship from property rights protection (hereafter PRP) to corporate R&D, but also show the mediation effect of financial access on this positive relationship. Thus, we use financial access to explain the variant effect of PRP on corporate R&D. With exogenous instrumental variables, our estimates are robust to endogeneity issues.     

There is no smoke without a fire: The effect of government interventions in less advanced economies

The lack of liquidity in the interbank market during the crisis of 2007–2011 led governments to impose different policies to rescue their countries’ banking sectors. While in advanced countries interventions in the banking sector were mostly related to a lack of liquidity and significant asymmetric information regarding counterparty risk, in many less advanced countries they had a precautionary motive. In our article, we investigate the effectiveness of policy interventions on healthy banking markets, with possible negative spill-over effects from other countries. To this extent, we use an event study methodology to test the effect of liquidity and financial sector policy announcements on interbank spread changes in six Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries over the period between 2007 and 2011. We find that standard liquidity interventions did not provide effective stabilization. In fact, our evidence suggests that the spread widened after their announcement, probably as a result of the negative signal and consequently increased risk aversion of banks. In such situations, regulators should consider policy instruments that aim to decrease uncertainty in the market.     

Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area

In this paper, we analyse the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany within the euro area with several seasonal methods. We draw a distinction between movements within Germany, circulation outside Germany but within the euro area and demand from non-euro-area countries. Our approach suggests that only about 20% of euro notes issued by Germany are used for transactions in Germany. The rest is hoarded (10%), circulates in other euro area countries (25%) or is held outside the euro area (45%).     

对贵阳某大桥桥台溶洞的稳定性分析与评价

贵州是我国岩溶地区分布的主要区域之一,在岩溶区处理路桥基础稳定性分析与评价是目前工程建设过程中面临的重点技术难题,尤其在处理大桥桥台溶洞方面,缺乏对溶洞应力应变稳定性的认识。文章以贵阳某大桥桥台溶洞为例,在调查研究区桥台溶洞工程地质环境条件的基础上,通过评价场地溶洞的岩土体力学性质,利用定性和定量两种方法对桥台溶洞进行系统的稳定性分析与评价,从而保证桥台溶洞的稳定性和工程的整体质量。     

The impact of oil prices and the financial market on cost efficiency in the insurance and Takaful sectors: Evidence from a stochastic frontier analysis

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) insurance industry, including conventional insurance and Takaful, has witnessed remarkable growth during the last decade. However, the economies of this region rely on oil as the primary stream of revenue and lack development in financial markets. This could affect the insurance industry. For this reason, this paper examines the impact of oil prices and the financial market on the cost efficiency of the insurance and Takaful sectors in GCC countries using a stochastic frontier cost function with data from 2009–2016. The results show that the relationship between oil prices and efficiency changes from positive to negative when the prices increase, whereas the relationship between the financial market and efficiency is negative. No clear evidence of the impact of oil prices on efficiency arises from the differences between conventional insurance and Takaful. However, there are differences regarding the financial market, with a negative impact on conventional insurance and a positive one on the Takaful business. The results of this study have implications for regulators and management. The Takaful industry is rapidly growing compared to conventional insurance in the GCC and, therefore, the financial market may have added benefits for the GCC region. However, caution is required in relation to the impact of the financial market on conventional insurance. Furthermore, management may require the development of strategies to deal with the nature of GCC economies to avoid shocks to oil prices.     

Promotion systems and career development in Thailand: a case study of Siam Cement

This paper examines the promotion systems and career development of managers of Siam Cement Public Company Limited, the largest manufacturing conglomerate in Thailand. Since the 1980s, the company has grown into a full-blown conglomerate and is widely considered to be Thailand's most modernized corporation. In the aftermath of the 1997–8 Asian crisis, the meltdown forced the company and other debt-addicted business groups to streamline their debts and organization structures drastically. However, just five years later, the company had bounced back into profitability and first-class corporate governance, and stands firmly in the front rank. Undoubtedly, the company's successful recovery and its current strengths have been driven by the capability and dedication of its managers. This paper focuses on interviews with the company's personnel managers during 1999–2001, and on the personnel profiles of 128 managers (general manager level), in order to examine Siam Cement's human resource management policies and practices, and to draw from this its overall strategies for the development of managerial careers. The main finding was that well-planned recruitment, competitive promotion, concrete performance appraisal and wide-ranging training and development programmes, including job rotation and sending managers to study abroad, are all essential career development strategies.     

The prospect of decent work,decent industrial relations and decent social relations in China: towards a multi-level and multi-disciplinary approach

Abstract

Decent Work is a key initiative launched by the International Labour Organization in 1999. The initiative is to promote decent and productive employment with decent conditions of freedom, equality, security and human dignity. In reviewing academic literature on decent work, existing studies have been conducted primarily from a legal and political economic perspective. It is also largely situated outside any national industrial relations framework, both theoretically and practically. Decent work is an advocacy initiative of ILO, but the promotion of universal values embodied in the notion (e.g. equality, fairness, justice and dignity) needs to be tailored to specific societal contexts. Drawing on existing academic literature, this review article examines ideological, institutional and cultural distances between decent work and the reality of employment in China. It argues that achieving decent work requires an ideological transition of ‘traditional’ Chinese work ethics and a cultural transition from collectivism and altruism towards individualism and an emphasis on individual rights. This study also examines and highlights regulatory enforcement deficits and the inadequate role of the trade union in facilitating the advancement of decent work at various levels. Finally, the article argues that the study of decent work should be mainstreamed as an integral part of decent industrial relations and ultimately, decent social relations. It calls for a multi-level and multi-disciplinary approach to examining the historical, political, economic, ideological and cultural context of specific countries in fulfilling the ‘Decent Work’ agenda.     

The managerial prerogative and the employee's duty to work: a comparative study of functional flexibility in working life

This paper presents a discussion of the general reasons for conducting comparative research, the need for a socio-legal functional approach and the motives for subjecting Swedish, English and German labour law to study. Anna Christensen's theory of the normative field of law is discussed and applied to the field of comparative labour law research. The focus of the research is the legal regulation of the managerial prerogative (especially the employer's right to direct and allocate work) in the light of the increasing trend towards greater flexibility in employment.     

生态性、公益性与经济性的协调——以济南青龙山为例

协调城市自然景观与周边土地利用的关系以实现社会的可持续发展,是城市规划中面临的重要问题.以济南青龙山城市自然景观为例,通过对其周边土地利用现状及存在问题的分析,提出了生态性、公益性和经济性的协调机制,探讨了该机制的协调原则和措施,为城市自然景观的保护和城市化地区生态安全格局的构建提供了参考.     

The influence of telecenters on rural life and their success correlates: Lessons from a case study in Iran

New information and communication technologies (ICTs) are fast becoming an inevitable and necessary part of rural development projects in Asian countries. Since 2004, about 10,000 Rural ICT Offices have been opened in Iran to improve the lives of those living in rural communities. This research aimed at investigating the influence of the Mazijan ICT Office on the lives of villagers and its success correlates. Data was collected through archival records, observations, structured face-to-face interviews with 210 users, semi-structured face-to-face interviews with the office operator, and six local officials and leaders. Findings were contrasted with the literature to provide more generalized lessons. Results revealed that the Mazijan office was successful in some aspects especially in reducing the need for travels, but not successful in creating job opportunities. Significant positive relationships were found between users' ICT literacy, satisfaction with the services and extent of using services with the extent to which their lives were influenced by the office. The main lessons for promoting the success of telecenters included careful considerations to be given to rural ICT capacity building, improvement of rural telecommunication infrastructures, and providing multiple low-cost and financially viable services.