Construction of an economic index to measure the causes of economic insecurity

This paper is an updated study on the causes of economic insecurity in the United States. The authors have constructed an aggregate composite index that measures objectively the major causes of economic insecurity (CEI) in the United States. The CEI index consists of 11 variables that can cause economic insecurity. The time period under investigation is 1960 through 2001. A rising CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity in the United States have increased in relative importance, which results in an increase in economic insecurity. Conversely, a falling CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity have declined in relative importance, which results in a reduction of economic insecurity. However, despite substantial economic growth in the American economy from 1960 through 2001, the CEI index overall showed little improvement. The major conclusion is that the CEI index was 9 percent higher in 2001 than it was in 1960. This result was due largely to the increase in divorce, violent crime, rising out-of-pocket expenditures for health care, inflation, and unemployment. The results for subperiods are dramatically different, and we think more interesting, than the overall results. During the 1960s, there was a small decline in the CEI index. The 1970s showed a dramatic increase in the CEI index, which reflected both high unemployment rates and inflation rates during this period. The 1980s experienced fluctuating levels in the index but little overall change, and the 1990s experienced a sharp decline in the CEI index due largely to a robust economy. The CEI index has increased more recently, which reflects largely the recent 2001 business recession. The correlation coefficient of the CEI index with the University of Michigan's well-known Index of Consumer Sentiment is ?676. This figure shows that as the CEI index rises, consumer sentiment about the American economy becomes pessimistic and negative.     

Macroeconomic performance index: a new approach to calculation of economic wellbeing

Since the rise of the global financial crisis, there has been revival of interest in performance indexes that measure the overall stance of the economy and the wellbeing of households. Such indexes typically consist of inflation, growth, employment and long-term interest rates. We develop such an index by appending exchange rate and weighting each variable by the inverse of its variance in order to prevent the more volatile variable to dominate the index. We call this macroeconomic performance index (MPI) and argue that such an index better explains the overall economic stance especially in emerging economies. We generate the index using data from three emerging economies, namely Turkey, Brazil and Poland. Our analysis indicates that the index has a nonlinear structure and hence we analyse its behaviour using threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. It is observed that MPI captures the economic stance and main economic incidents quite successfully in each subject country. To further see the relevance of the MPI, we run TAR cointegration analysis with consumer confidence indexes (CCIs) for the subject countries with TAR cointegration test. The results indicate long-term relationship between the MPI and CCI in all three countries.     

美元指数趋势性变动影响因素的计量分析

长期以来,作为世界主要货币的美元的历次趋势性波动都对全球不同的经济体造成较强的影响。1982—1985年,美元指数的走强,致使拉丁美洲出现债务危机;20世纪90年代,美元指数的走弱,促使日本出现泡沫经济;1996年,美元的再次走强,使得东亚、东南亚再次受到金融危机侵袭;最近几年,由于美元指数出现趋势性走弱,以至于对中国的通货膨胀产生了较大的影响。为了更深刻地研究通货膨胀的本质以便有效地出台相关治理政策,准确地研究美元指数变动的影响因素意义重大。因此,运用多元回归的方法,旨在说明美国宏观经济指标对美元指数变动的影响程度要弱于相关对手货币对美元指数的影响,进而寻求到能够有效防范金融危机发生的措施。     

Political constraints to growth in an economic union

This paper studies the political economy of growth in an economic union such as the EU. In the spirit of Acemoglu, Aghion and Zilibotti [Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P. and Zilibotti, F., 2006a, Distance to frontier, selection and economic growth, Journal of the European Economic Association, 4:1, 37–74; Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., and Zilibotti, F., 2006b, Growth, development and appropriate versus inappropriate institutions, mimeo MIT.], as the economy approaches the world technology frontier, structural reforms that increase competition in intermediate goods sectors are necessary to boost innovation and productivity growth. Reforms, however, raise the opposition of incumbents and, therefore, are politically difficult to implement. When there are important cross-border policy spillover effects, national governments are more easily captured by vested interests, as they fail to internalize the benefits of reforms on the rest of the union. In this situation, productivity growth may be sluggish and the economy can fail to converge to the frontier. On the other hand, when policy is chosen by a union government (or a collective body that takes into account union welfare), the internalization of spillovers raises the perceived benefit of reforms and, consequently, lowers the ability of lobbies to obtain high levels of protection.     

Towards an economic theory of the multiproduct firm

This paper outlines a theory of the multiproduct firm. Important building blocks include excess capacity and its creation, market imperfections, and the peculiarities of organizational knowledge, including its fungible and tacit character. A framework is adopted in which profit seeking firms are seen to diversify in order to avoid the high transactions costs associated with using various markets to trade the services of various specialized assets. Neoclassical explanations of the multiproduct firm are shown to be seriously deficient.     

On the physical quality of life index and evaluating economic welfare between nations

This paper tests for the statistical relationship between the Physical Quality of Life Index and an index of per capita gross national product for 150 nations and concludes that both provide essentially similar welfare rankings. We utilize principal components methodology to estimate PQLIs for 150 countries and find that, due to intercorrelation between the variables in the PQLI, the first principal component explains about 95% of the generalized variance.     

Structural economic dynamics: an alternative approach to North-South models

This paper isolates the mechanisms responsible for the difficultiesfacing poor regions in growing faster than rich ones. The analysisof uneven development is carried out in a framework where changesin demand composition are consistent with Engel's Law. The standpointof the analysis is the interaction between technical progress—whichproduces responses in per capita income—and changes ofper capita consumption. The paper focuses on one case in whichpreferences are homothetic and there is capital dependence,showing that the latter assumption is sufficient to explainthe inequalities between poor and rich regions. When dealingwith the case of non-homothetic tastes, adverse movements inthe terms of trade and the international demonstration effect,which are both due to the inelastic demand for goods producedby poor regions, are the mechanisms responsible for uneven development.     

On an absolute measure of distributional change

This paper tries to combine Kolm's ideas on the measurement of inequality with the recent work of Cowell on the generalized entropy families of income distribution and change indices. A ‘leftist’ measure of income distributional change is proposed, which is invariant to equal absolute changes in all incomes and which has other interesting properties.     

绿色经济制度体系--推进循环经济发展的制度创新

从本质上说，发展循环经济就是在生产、流通、消费、分配的每一个环节实现废弃物减量化、资源化、无害化，实际上就是废弃物资源的有效配置问题。基于此，本文以界定废弃物是资源为前提，从微观经济学角度，通过探讨废弃物资源有效配置机制，透析当今资源短缺和环境恶化的制度根源，寻求实现废弃物资源有效配置即发展循环经济的制度切入点——绿色经济制度体系，以期为循环经济的发展奠定经济学理论基础。     

拉丁美洲1990年代经济改革特点--以墨西哥经济改革为例

拉丁美洲在20世纪90年代前后开始的全面经济改革,新自由主义属性显著。在这一过程中,墨西哥的新自由经济改革颇具代表性。因此,以墨西哥的加工贸易和国有企业私有化为例,分析拉丁美洲经济改革中的特点以及出现的问题。     

Improving the performance of an economic system: Controlling chaos

In this paper we use a simple model of evolutionary market dynamics to illustrate how chaotic behavior can be controlled by making small changes in a parameter that is accessible to the decision makers. This approach is commonly referred to as `targeting' – one can easily switch from a chaotic evolution of the market to any desired regular motion. We show that complex dynamics leads to inferior performance in our model and that an application of such a correction mechanism by the decision makers of the firms yields a considerable improvement in the system's economical properties in terms of profits and profitability. We present numerical simulations in order to illustrate the effectiveness of this method.     

Institutions hold consumption on a leash: an evolutionary economic approach to the future of consumption

As first suggested by Keynes (1930), much thinking about the future of consumption starts with claims about future income, technology or demographics, perhaps concocted in a growth model, and then considers what consumption will look like, as a separate question, given those priors. A different approach starts one step further back with inquiry into the type of institutions that would produce such evolutionary growth. You then ask how those same institutions would shape consumption. I argue that the future of consumption depends on income and innovation, which themselves depend on the evolution of institutions. I suggest that this is an evolutionary economic approach to the future of consumption.     

对建设银行“客户评级覆盖率”指标的思考

建设银行要求除“速贷通”和“低风险业务”外的对公所有客户都必须进行客户评级。评级中存在的主要问题是推翻上调评级问题以及季末突击评级问题。应该通过建立经营条线和风险条线客户评级责任人制度、建立客户经理和风险经理AB角制度、建立客户评级到期提示制度、建立客户评级提前申报制度、建立客户评级失效与相关员工绩效工资考核分配制度等措施来完善“客户评级覆盖率”评级指标。     

Measuring China’s trade liberalization: A generalized measure of trade restrictiveness index

Neither simple average nor import-weighted average tariff indexes are ideal measures of tariff barriers. In this paper, we propose a generalized trade restrictiveness index (GTRI) that extends Feenstra’s (1995) tariff restrictiveness index (TRI) by relaxing the crucial assumption of a small open economy. We show that the GTRI can be measured using import tariffs, import shares, and the corresponding import and foreign export elasticities. We then apply the GTRI to examine how trade restrictiveness has evolved in China from 1997 to 2008, the period in which China entered the WTO. The GTRI indicates a higher level of protection than simple and import-weighted averages, but lower than the TRI. We further show a negative correlation between tariffs and product export supply elasticity, indicating that strategic trade policy was being pursued prior to China’s WTO accession. Finally, we calculate the welfare loss and terms-of-trade gain due to tariff protection. The overall tariff pass-through increases from around 28% to almost 47% because of the WTO.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of time-varying parameters: an application to the Athens Stock Exchange index

The problem of maximum likelihood estimation of time-varying parameters is considered. A hierarchical approach is proposed that involves, first, the estimation of the model order and parameters when they are assumed time-invariant. Second, for each parameter, an autoregressive (AR) model, with constant coefficients, is developed. This allows the parameters to change over time. Finally, the estimates of the AR coefficients for each parameter are used as initial conditions to a time-varying model with AR coefficients, which are allowed to change over time subject to some regularity constraints. This approach is then applied to the Athens Stock Exchange index, where the dominant forces affecting this index are analysed.