Construction of an economic index to measure the causes of economic insecurity

This paper is an updated study on the causes of economic insecurity in the United States. The authors have constructed an aggregate composite index that measures objectively the major causes of economic insecurity (CEI) in the United States. The CEI index consists of 11 variables that can cause economic insecurity. The time period under investigation is 1960 through 2001. A rising CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity in the United States have increased in relative importance, which results in an increase in economic insecurity. Conversely, a falling CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity have declined in relative importance, which results in a reduction of economic insecurity. However, despite substantial economic growth in the American economy from 1960 through 2001, the CEI index overall showed little improvement. The major conclusion is that the CEI index was 9 percent higher in 2001 than it was in 1960. This result was due largely to the increase in divorce, violent crime, rising out-of-pocket expenditures for health care, inflation, and unemployment. The results for subperiods are dramatically different, and we think more interesting, than the overall results. During the 1960s, there was a small decline in the CEI index. The 1970s showed a dramatic increase in the CEI index, which reflected both high unemployment rates and inflation rates during this period. The 1980s experienced fluctuating levels in the index but little overall change, and the 1990s experienced a sharp decline in the CEI index due largely to a robust economy. The CEI index has increased more recently, which reflects largely the recent 2001 business recession. The correlation coefficient of the CEI index with the University of Michigan's well-known Index of Consumer Sentiment is ?676. This figure shows that as the CEI index rises, consumer sentiment about the American economy becomes pessimistic and negative.     

WHY WAS UNEMPLOYMENT IN POSTWAR BRITAIN SO LOW?*

Why was Unemployment in Postwar Britain So Low? This paper takes a fresh look at the low unemployment in postwar Britain, which is seen as exceptional rather than the norm. During the 1950s and 1960s low unemployment was reconciled with stable inflation through the exercise of wage restraint. Yet the postwar settlement which underpinned this wage restraint also allowed the entrenchment of restrictive practices, which inevitably slowed the growth of productivity and the feasible real wage, thus contributing to Britain's relative economic decline.     

Measuring the New Economy: An International Comparative Perspective

The advances made in the production and use of information and communication technology (ICT) during the past decades may have potentially large effects for long term economic growth. Indeed the substantial acceleration in real GDP growth in many OECD countries, but in particular in the United States, during the second half of the 1990s has led to suggestions that a "new economy" has emerged. In this new economy the old economic rules were supposed to have become invalid. For example, traditional concerns about the limits of maximum production capacity might disappear as the marginal costs of producing ICT goods and services are virtually nil. Moreover, the trade-off between inflation and unemployment could be reduced due to a more efficient inventory management.     

Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis

This paper studies the relation between inflation and economic development. The literature is largely silent regarding both the theoretical and empirical perspectives that undeveloped countries endure higher average inflation than developed economies. We present a simple theoretical model linking the inflation phenomenon to the tradition of development economics. Empirical evidence is garnered to test the hypothesis that economic development engenders a downward bias to inflation rates. Through the feasible-GLS estimator in a panel of 65 countries from 2001 to 2011, we aim at listing a number of variables most commonly used to explain differences in the stage of economic development across countries and identifying the most statistically relevant ones to account for differences in inflationary patterns. While our results show that inflation is inversely correlated with the level of the technological content of the economy (measured by share of high-tech exports), human capital and cyclical unemployment, it is directly related to the degree of inflation persistence and terms of trade growth. However, our findings still present an inverse and low correlation between inflation persistence and economic development, implying that development-sensitive variables allowed into the model can only partially account for the differences in inflation at different levels of economic development.     

On the measurement and analysis of aggregate economic activity for China: the coincident economic indicators approach

This paper reviews some of China's high-frequency economic indicators and our principal findings on their selection and use. Our aim is to develop a composite index of coincident economic indicators (coincident economic index, CEI) which can be used to obtain timely information on the present state of the China's economy and provide an appropriate measure to analyze China's short-term macroeconomic dynamics. Notably, combining industrial production, retail sales, manufacturing employment, income of financial institutions and passenger traffic volume, they work well as the method for dating business cycles for China. It shows that, over the past two decades, there was one marked recession which occurred in 1988:8 to 1989:12. In addition to this business cycle chronology we also develop a growth cycle chronology based on the deviations from trend of the CE which shows that there have been four cyclical slowdowns since 1986. Whereas GDP growth lacks cyclical movements and appears to be dominated by trend and irregular movements, in contrast to GDP, the CEI works well as a measure of cyclical dynamics and can contribute to the analysis of short-term fluctuations of Chinese economic activity relative to its long-term growth.     

UNEMPLOYMENT PERSISTENCE AND THE NAIRU: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

This paper estimates the United States and euro area NAIRU in a Bayesian framework. We set out a simple structural model explaining unemployment by demand and supply factors, which are treated as unobserved variables that have observable effects on measured unemployment, output and inflation. The model allows for unemployment persistence and a time-varying core inflation rate. The results show that although cyclical shocks are very persistent, most of the increase in European unemployment is driven by structural factors. The degree of persistence is lower in the United States but demand shocks seem to be more important in explaining variation in unemployment.     

Nexus between economic sanctions and inflation: a case study in Iran

Conventional studies have applied dummy variables to analyse the relationship between economic sanctions and inflation while we construct an index which is called Trade-Financial Sanctions (TF index). TF Index is a liner combination of indices which includes trade openness and foreign investment by applying the principal component model. Through the TF index and market exchange rate the impact of economic sanctions on inflation is analysed in the three phases of sanctions; free sanctions, heavy sanctions, and light sanctions. The results illustrate that the TF index decreases inflation when the Iran’s economy experiences free sanctions or light sanctions relative to when the economy is in heavy sanctions. Heavy sanctions create instability in the market exchange rates and widening the gap between the market and the official exchange rates. Furthermore, economic sanctions increase expected inflation among the people and drive higher inflation. Therefore, these results suggest that the government should work more seriously to solve the main obstacles of trade and investment inflows imposed by the economic sanctions.     

Commentary on economic valuations of biodiversity

Our planet's biodiversity is in steep decline. Assigning economic values to the impacts of this decline can be very useful in overcoming economic-based objections to sustainable policies at all levels of government. However, economic valuations that are not based on sound scientific analysis threaten to undermine the credibility of ecological valuations in general and could also lead policy makers to misallocate the limited resources available for conservation efforts. Researchers at Cornell University have introduced a valuation into several peer-reviewed journals that asserts that each individual bird in the United States has an average economic value of $30, and they use this valuation to estimate the economic impact of various causes of bird mortality. The $30 valuation is explained with a single sentence that lacks any discernible scientific analysis and can at best be considered a symbolic valuation. While this valuation garnered widespread media attention, it creates a dangerous precedent and could ultimately do more harm than good to native bird populations. As such, further discussion of the role of symbolic valuations in the scientific literature is warranted.     

Regional analysis of the impact of inward foreign direct investment on economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry

This article empirically investigates the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on regional economic growth in the Chinese electronic industry (CEI). Utilizing a provincial-level panel data spanning the period 1989 to 2009, we specify and estimate an endogenous economic growth model for the CEI. Empirical results indicate that, for the coastal region, FDI inflows have been growth enhancing, while in the central and western regions the impact of FDI on economic growth is mixed, depending on the channel of capital flow. Results also indicate that exports, human capital, science and technology investment and fixed asset investment are growth enhancing, while unemployment and foreign R&D investment are growth impeding in the CEI.     

Exploring the causes of the slowdown in remittances to Mexico

This article explores the slowdown of remittances to Mexico and the role that may have been played by some key variables from the United States economy. The findings show that several measures of United States economic activity and different proxies for the unemployment of Mexican nationals living in the United States do not appear to have a strong impact on remittance transfers. On the other hand, this study finds that United States housing variables do seem to affect remittance transfers. In particular, there is a special prominence of the impact shown by the number of housing starts in the United States. Overall, the results seem to suggest that there is not a single United States economic factor that is responsible for the decrease of remittances to Mexico but rather a combination of factors. Among these factors, the decrease in United States housing activity seems to play a major role.     

Does Inflation Grease the Wheels of Adjustment? New evidence from the US economy

This paper presents a new interpretation of the Phillips curve that rests on the process of nominal wage adjustment in a multi-sector economy. Nominal demand growth causes inflation in sectors with full employment, but it speeds up the process of employment creation in sectors with unemployment. As a result, demand-pull inflation is associated with both a reduction in the duration of unemployment and the economy wide average rate of unemployment. The paper provides empirical evidence from the US economy consistent with this claim.     

Trade,capital accumulation and structural unemployment: an empirical study of the Singapore economy

This paper studies the factors responsible for the secular decline of Singapore's unemployment rate over the period 1966-2000 in an environment of low and stable inflation rates. We introduce wage bargaining and unions into a specific-factors, two-sector economy with an export sector and a non-tradable sector to obtain an endogenous natural unemployment rate. Increases in the relative export price and capital stock in the export sector are predicted to reduce structural unemployment. These hypotheses could not be rejected based on structural estimations and co-integration regressions. Empirically, capital accumulation in the export sector explains most of the decline in Singapore's unemployment rate.     

The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation

"This paper analyzes the impact of the Baby Boom generation on macroeconomic relationships in the United States. Using quarterly postwar data, it finds that measures of population age composition influenced real interest rates, income, inflation, and unemployment. The demographic variables complement or dominate other economic variables in reduced-form macroeconomic specifications. The paper also projects how the aging of the generation may influence future macroeconomic activity."     

Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey

We construct economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey based on newspaper coverage frequency. The EPU index reflects the frequency counts of articles in major Turkish newspapers that contain specific terms related to economy, policy and uncertainty. The EPU index rises around national elections (2002, 2007 and 2015), domestic uncertainty periods (2008 and 2013), domestic and global financial crisis periods (2001 and 2009) and the Euro area debt crisis in 2011. The investigation of the impact of EPU on economic activity reveals that policy uncertainty has adverse impacts on economic growth, consumption and investment in Turkey. Remarkable is that high uncertainty leads to a greater investment decline than output and consumption.     

The recent rise of profits in the United States

Profitability in the United States has been rising since the early 1980s, and by 1997 was nearing its postwar peak in the mid-1960s. The profit share has also recovered from its postwar low in the early 1970s. In this paper, I examine the role of the change in the profit share and capital intensity on movements in the rate of profit between 1947 and 1997. Its recent recovery is traced to a rise in the profit share in national income and a decline in the capital-output ratio.     

Macroeconomic Policy in Australia Since the Sixties

This article reviews macroeconomic policy in Australia since the 1960s. It is argued that economic thinking by Australian governments progressed from a Keynesian approach to a classical approach in 1975 and then to a Keynesian-classical synthesis in 1983. To the usual major indicators of macroeconomic performance, unemployment and inflation, the article adds a third indicator, called thrift. Thrift is a measure of how society is allocating its resources between current and future consumption. The record of thrift for Australia since the 1960s is described and evaluated.     

中国被忽视的非正规经济：现实与理论

中国的“非正规经济”就业人员（即没有工作保障,缺少福利和不受国家劳动法保护的劳工）已占今天2．83亿城镇就业人员总数中的1．68亿,比正规就业人员要多出一倍半。但是,今目的中国国家统计机构尚未真正正视非正规经济就业人员统计。其部分原因是当前的主流经济（以及社会）理论——即主要来自20世纪60年代在美国盛行的“二元经济”理论、“三部门理论”和“橄榄型”社会结构理论——的误导。这些理论共同构成了50年代和60年代风行美国的“现代化”模式。本文扼要论述该模式的关键论点,进而回顾70年代和80年代发展经济学“革命”中有关学者对其所作的批评,以及后来新古典经济学在美国新保守主义领导下进行的“反革命”辩驳,重在揭示论争双方的意识形态化偏颇,并突出各自的洞见,提倡适当结合双方正确的见解,由此建立去意识形态化的理论观点,以助于理解今天非正规经济的现实。     

The Regressive Recovery: Distribution,Inequality and State Power in Britain's Post-Crisis Political Economy

This article interrogates the underlying mechanisms at the heart of Britain's post-crisis political economy. We argue that the contemporary economic recovery has been characterised by a dynamic of ‘regressive redistribution’: a socially regressive dynamic of state-led economic restructuring that has worked through two axes at the centre of the recovery. The first axis, a monetary policy framework centred upon Quantitative Easing, has driven asset-price inflation to the benefit of the wealthiest asset holders. The second axis centres upon the politics of regressive labour market restructuring which has provoked widespread wage deflation. In combination, these two axes have been central to defining the contours of the Britain's post-crisis political economy paradigm: characterised by rising asset wealth for the few, and falling living standards alongside increasing economic insecurity for wage earners. The opportunity to change path from the trends of deepening inequality that defined the pre-crisis era has not been taken. Instead, the prevailing policy paradigm of the post-crisis period – discursively unified and sustained by David Cameron's government – has intensified the regressively redistributive dynamics at the core of the neo-liberal project. Ultimately, this is likely to further entrench structural weaknesses in Britain's economy in the years ahead.     

SEIGNIORAGE, DOMESTIC DEBT, AND FINANCIAL REFORM IN CHINA

This paper describes the institutional features of China's hybrid economy that have allowed the government to earn high levels of seigniorage. It quantifies both the financial benefits and implicit costs to the government of extracting seigniorage from the economy. The analysis, which is based on the inside/outside money model of Gurley and Shaw (1960), indicates that seigniorage earnings in the period 1987—1994 were large, but were earned at the cost of a rising implicit government debt and potential future inflation. The paper also outlines how the Chinese government's ability to earn seigniorage in the future may decline as the economy becomes fully monetized and as reform alters the economy's unique institutional structure.     

Policy implications of a non-linear Phillips curve in a stochastic environment

When the Phillips curve is non-linear, fluctuations of the unemployment rate below the mean will have a larger impact on the inflation rate than fluctuations above the mean. This paper shows that this causes conventional measures of the “natural unemployment rate” to underestimate the mean unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation in the long run. More importantly, it reveals a potential long-run trade-off between unemployment and economic stability.