中国宏观经济形势评价与分析

今年上半年,宏观经济运行保持了增长比较快、效益比较好、价格比较稳的良好局面,实现了“十一五”规划的良好开局。同时,经济生活中也存在一些突出矛盾和可能影响经济社会发展全局的重大问题,主要是：投资增长偏快,货币供应量偏高,对外贸易顺差偏大,房地产价格上涨过快等。解决这些问题,需要妥善协调各方面的宏观调控政策,加强政策配套,努力实现宏观调控政策效果的总体最优。在宏观调控中,应注意把短期问题的解决与长期发展目标的实现结合起来,促进经济持续平稳较快发展。     

不妨"高出高进"——解决外贸顺差问题应更多地从扩大进口上寻求出路

近来,不断有一些学者发表文章认为我国出口持续增长以及外贸顺差的持续扩大是"对外贸易的结构和增长方式不合理"所致,把当前外贸顺差过大带来的压力归咎于所谓的"外贸出口的过快增长",并且把解决外贸顺差过大的出路寄望于抑制出口上.笔者认为这是一种非常有害的观点,其症结在于:未能认识到我国外贸顺差持续扩大的根本原因并非出口过快增长所致,而是由于"奖出限入"传统观念和近年来宏观经济环境与相关政策所导致的进口增速滞后;未能认识到像中国这样的发展中大国,在特定发展阶段同样需要经历一个对外贸易"高出高进"的过程;未能认识到解决外贸顺差持续扩大问题,需要更多地从扩大进口上寻求出路.     

中国宏观经济形势评价与分析(2006年1～6月)

今年上半年，宏观经济运行保持了增长比较快、效益比较好、价格比较稳的良好局面，实现了“十一五”规划的良好开局。同时，经济生活中也存在一些突出矛盾和可能影响经济社会发展全局的重大问题，主要是：投资增长偏快，货币供应量偏高，对外贸易顺差偏大，房地产价格上涨过快等。解决这些问题，需要妥善协调各方面的宏观调控政策，加强政策配套，努力实现宏观调控政策效果的总体最优。在宏观调控中，应注意把短期问题的解决与长期发展目标的实现结合起来，促进经济持续平稳较快发展。     

对目前经济发展态势的判断和分析

从整体看,今年,黑龙江省1-4月的经济发展态势很好,增长很快.这个形势得益于三个主、客观条件的支撑:一是"努力快发展、全面建小康"这个思路得到全省上下的接受和共识,变成行动,带来快发展这样一个好势头;二是振兴东北老工业基地的政策效应已经进入显露期,拉动了经济增长;三是中央一号文件关于农民增收的"一免两补"政策,促进了农民的生产积极性.     

我国人口政策对经济发展的长远影响作用

我国在经历了"不限制人口增长、节制生育"的人口政策演变过程后,到20世纪80年代初,确立一对夫妇只生育一个孩子的人口政策,有效控制了人口过快增长,缓解了人口压力,提高了妇女的社会地位和妇幼保健水平,改善了青少年的教育。但人口老龄化、人口性别比例失衡、独生子女问题、劳动年龄人口数量下降、经济发展动力减弱以及家庭规模结构与功能变化等问题日渐突出。借鉴日本、印度的人口政策,我国要把人口问题放在经济和社会发展的全局中考虑,制定适合国情的人口政策,提高人口素质,应从加大社保投入、适时微调生育政策、分类实施放开二胎等方面调整人口政策。     

浅析青少年足球运动员的体能训练

青少年在生长发育过程中机体各器官系统生长发育的速度是不均衡的,时而快时而慢呈现波浪式地增长,是一个既有阶段性变化,也有连续性递增的相互作用的过程.在各阶段必须"对症下药",决不能使用笼统的、成人的方法来训练.针对这一问题,对体能训练内容与方法的实施进行探讨.     

论转变我国外贸发展方式

我国的对外贸易依然呈现出诸多问题,货物贸易出口产品和技术结构层次较低问题、外贸中存在的资源环境问题成为其中的焦点。特别是我国产品的"低技术、低附加值"问题,迫切需要得到解决。因此,本文在对我国外贸发展方式存在的问题进行深入分析后,有重点,有针对性地提出了转变我国外贸发展方式的对策:进一步优化进出口结构,继续实施科教兴贸战略;加快加工贸易转型升级;适量扩大进口规模,抑制顺差过快增长;协调环境保护与中国外贸可持续发展政策。     

中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟.在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异.完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高.同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉.     

浅论中国未来经济增长的前景和潜力

党的十七大报告明确提出了促进国民经济又好又快发展的任务。从"又快又好"到"又好又快",不是简单的字序调整,而是发展观的转变,是要让"快"服从"好",坚持"好"中求"快"。改革开放以来,中国经济已经连续29年取得了奇迹般的增长成绩,但在快速增长的同时,经济运行中的一些问题日益突出,如城乡、区域经济社会发展仍然不平衡、资源环境也亮起了红灯等等。有些专家学者以之为据,对今后中国经济能否持续高速增长表示担忧。国外的一些研究机构也断言,中国经济增长不久将呈现回落之势。到底应该如何看待中国经济未来的发展前景?本文对此进行探讨。     

促进中小企业发展之路

许多经济学家都认为,不管是发达国家,还是发展中国家,国民经济的真正支柱是中小企业,只有扶持中小企业发展的经济政策,才能带来就业机会,才能拉动经济增长.由于大型企业在我国国民经济中同样也有重要地位,我们的政策应是"大、中、小"并兴,一方面"抓大",扶持大企业、企业集团的成长,另一方面在"放小"的过程中,不光要"放",而且也应扶持中小企业的发展.     

Economic growth and labor investment efficiency

We examine the relationship between economic growth and labor investment efficiency. Using a sample of US firms from 1991 to 2019, our findings suggest that labor investment inefficiency increases with the expansion of economic activities. Although economic growth increases labor overinvestment, it also decreases labor underinvestment. The magnitude effect of economic growth is more pronounced for labor overinvestment. Labor investment inefficiency is noticeable during low economic policy uncertainty. Economic growth-induced labor investment inefficiency is pronounced for (1) large firms, (2) high labor intensity firms, and (3) firms with overinvestment in non-labor investments. Further, economic growth negatively (positively) influences the firm's future performance for labor overinvested (underinvested) firms. Our findings remain robust to alternative specifications.     

非控股股东网络权力的投资角色定位

以企业的投资效率为研究视角,考察非控股股东网络权力这一外部治理机制对企业行为的影响。研究发现:非控股股东网络权力的投资角色主要表现为"治理",在对非效率投资行为进行细分后发现,网络权力高的非控股股东可以缓解投资不足并抑制企业的投资过度;影响机制的检验显示,非控股股东网络权力主要通过抑制控股股东掏空、经理人过度投资行为以及投资机会的控制来缓解投资不足,从而提升投资效率;在企业股权融资风险较高、信息和法律环境较差时,非控股股东网络权力对企业投资行为的治理作用更突出。以上结论不仅丰富了非控股股东网络权力这一新兴学术领域的认知,对投资者和监管者也具有重要的参考价值。     

Vice or Virtue? The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Executive Compensation

We empirically examine the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on CEO compensation using a large sample of the US firms from 1996 to 2010. We develop and test two hypotheses, the overinvestment hypothesis based on agency theory and the conflict–resolution hypothesis based on stakeholder theory. We find that the lag of CSR adversely affects both total compensation and cash compensation, after controlling for various firm and board characteristics. Our estimates show that an interquartile increase in CSR is followed by a 4.35% (2.78%) decrease in total (cash) compensation. We also find an inverse association between lagged employee relations and CEO compensation. Our results are robust to the correction for endogeneity using instrumental variable approach. Taken together, our results support the conflict–resolution hypothesis, but not the CSR overinvestment argument.     

企业投融资互动机制下的信贷违约风险——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

本文以中国上市公司为样本,实证分析了在负债融资与投资决策相互作用的机制下企业信贷违约风险的变化规律.实证结果表明,整体上投资支出会促进信贷违约风险,负债融资会对其产生抑制;在负债融资导致的过度投资情形下,企业投资对信贷违约风险的促进作用将更明显,而过度投资会抑制企业最优负债融资水平,从而带来更低的最优信贷违约风险;短期负债融资会促进企业信贷违约风险的增加.文章为信贷违约风险控制探寻了一种从企业微观财务决策角度进行分析的全新视角.     

AN OVERINVESTMENT CYCLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE?

Prior to the Asian crisis, easy liquidity conditions contributed to credit expansion and overinvestment in the East Asian economies until they were hit by a deep recession. Similarly to the developments in the tiger economies in the 1990s, Central and Eastern European (CEE) grew rapidly from 2001 to 2007, due to foreign capital inflows. But the current global financial turmoil and economic downswing pulled the CEE economies into the maelstrom of the crisis. With the Asian experience in mind, the aim of this paper is to analyze whether overinvestment due to easy liquidity conditions possibly emerged and contributed to the crisis in CEE.     

融资约束、过度投资与现金流的价格敏感性

已有研究证实了盈余管理、会计稳健性以及边际投资收益递减规律均可能影响应计成分的持续性,揭示了资本市场对盈余的应计成分不存在“功能锁定”现象,但鲜有研究关注盈余的现金流成分与股价关系的影响因素。文章发现,过度投资会显著地降低现金流的价格敏感性,且对于现金持有水平高及融资约束程度高的公司,过度投资对现金流价格敏感性的影响更为显著。文章的研究结论一方面从经营活动现金流的价格敏感性视角揭示了过度投资的负面经济后果,另一方面也证实了市场对经营活动现金流同样不存在“功能锁定”现象。     

Monetary Policy,Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View

‘Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin’. Charles Kindleberger's book Manias, Panics and Crashes points out that speculation and crises have always been present: the world economic crisis of the 20th century, the South Sea bubble in the 18th century, and the tulip mania in the first part of the 17th century. Starting with the Japanese bubble in the 1980s we take the reader on a tour through 20 years of bubbles in emerging markets and industrial countries which have recently culminated in the 2007/08 US subprime market crisis. We explain the global stock market and real estate booms based on the real and monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek, Wicksell and Schumpeter, arguing that ample liquidity supply originating in the large industrialised countries has contributed – independent from the exchange rate regime – to overinvestment cycles in new and emerging markets around the globe. The policy implication is to keep interest rates not too low for too long in response to bursting bubbles.     

Optimum pricing of mutual guarantees for credit

The main finding of this paper is that under financial market impediments and asymmetric information, a mutually guaranteed and correctly schemed and priced insurance credit contract should have an abnormal actuarial profit. Such a contract improves welfare by simultaneously eliminating underinvestment (UI) and overinvestment (OI) and by reducing the probability of the insurer’s ruin. This solution is relevant for mutual credit insurance agencies and international or governmental agencies interested in increasing the value creation of small and medium enterprises that suffer from limited access to equity and debt markets.     

基于管理者过度自信的企业投资异化研究综述

企业的投资异化现象普遍存在于各国的企业中,这种异化会给企业及其利益相关者带来损失。随着行为金融学的兴起,近年来,从管理者过度自信角度研究企业投资异化问题成为学术界一个研究的热点,逐步形成了一些理论模型,得出了相应的研究结论。就该领域主要的理论研究和实证研究,从管理者过度自信所引起的过度投资、投资不足、过度并购以及由此带来的价值损毁等问题,对相关文献进行了回顾和评述,并对未来的研究方向进行了一定的展望。     

Institutional investors' corporate site visits and corporate investment efficiency

This study examines the association between institutional investors' corporate site visits (CSVs) and the visited firms' investment efficiency. Using unique CSVs' data from China, this study provides empirical evidence that institutional investors' CSVs lessen the visited firms' corporate investment inefficiency, including both over- and underinvestment. The negative relationship between CSVs and investment inefficiency is less pronounced for firms with higher quality financial reporting and better corporate governance. In addition, CSVs show a decrease in corporate overinvestment by monitoring the risk-taking activities of younger CEOs and expansionary firms, and supervising the use of excess free cash flows. Meanwhile, CSVs could mitigate underinvestment by reducing managerial shirking from entrenched CEOs, such as dual or longer-tenured CEOs. The possible economic mechanism behind this association is that CSVs increase institutional shareholding percentages. All the main findings are robust to a battery of endogeneity and robustness tests.