Farmers in a deregulated dairy regime: Insights from Ireland's New Entrants Scheme

While the impending review of the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is set to have an impact on all farming sectors across Europe, particularly transformative change is sought by policies relating to dairy farmers. EU milk quota abolition in 2015 will fundamentally revise the terms of dairy production, transitioning from policies of subsidy and protection to a scenario where farmers will produce milk on the open market. Dairy quota abolition essentially represents an economic but also socio-cultural disruption for a sizeable cohort of farmers, requiring adaptation to more market-driven production strategies. Agricultural policy-makers in EU member states are demonstrably preparing for this imminent change and dairy farmers are considering and strategising their responses at farm-level. Our focus in this paper is the interplay between quota abolition and farm-level decision-making in the pre-abolition period. Drawing from a broader mixed-methodological and multi-disciplinary research project, this paper uses qualitative narrative analysis to identify the key determinants arising in dairy farmers’ decision-making processes. How are farmers currently strategising their responses to dairy quota deregulation? Using the qualitative Biographic Narrative Interpretive Method (BNIM), we examine the range of factors determining how a particular group of dairy farmers are strategising their positions on the impending open dairy market. Our analysis highlights how, in the advent of a deregulated dairy production regime, dairy farmers are carefully deliberating their responses at farm level, drawing from policy and market related information, their own personal speculations, and conventional wisdom shared with other members of the farming community. We find that the dairy farmers are influenced not only by motivations to increase productivity and scale but by a tenacious approach to farm sustainability and resilience that is informed by past experiences of farming and seeks to preserve and promote socio-cultural farming values. The paper is of particular interest to policy makers and academics interested in the interchange between policy and farmer behaviour, particularly in the context of current CAP reform.     

Dryland salinity: economic, scientific, social and policy dimensions

A broad range of information relevant to salinity is reviewed in order to critically evaluate existing and prospective policy responses. The review includes issues of hydrogeology, farmer perceptions and preferences, farm-level economics of salinity management practices, spill-over benefits and costs from salinity management, and politics.
The technical challenge of preventing salinity is far greater than previously recognised. The farm-level economics of currently available management practices for salinity prevention are adverse in many situations. Off-site benefits from on-farm practices are often small and long delayed. Past national salinity policies have been seriously flawed. While current policy proposals include positive elements, they have not sufficiently escaped from the past.     

Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions

Considerable disagreement exists about the most appropriate characterization of farm-level yield distributions. Yet, the economic importance of alternative yield distribution specifications on crop insurance valuation has not been well documented. The results of this study demonstrate that large differences in expected payouts from popular crop insurance products can arise solely from the parameterization chosen to represent yield distributions. The results suggest that the frequently unexamined yield distribution specification may lead to economically significant errors in crop insurance policy rating and assessment of expected payouts from policies.     

Measuring progress in agricultural sustainability to support policy-making

The concept of sustainability is one of the forefront issues in discussions of the challenges facing global agriculture, given the mounting pressure to increase food production in both socially responsible and environmentally friendly ways. From the perspective of Irish agriculture, sustainable intensification is of particular relevance, given ambitious targets to increase milk production in the context of European Union (EU) milk quota removal in 2015. A series of farm-level sustainability indicators are developed here using the Teagasc National Farm Survey FADN (Farm Accountancy Data Network) data for Ireland from 2012. Three dimensions, reflecting the multifaceted nature of sustainability (environmental, economic and social) are considered. Given the environmental challenges inherent in the sustainable intensification of agriculture, it is encouraging to observe that the more intensive, top performing farms (in an economic sense) emit relatively less greenhouse gases when compared to their less intensive counterparts. Conversely, the better performing farms in economic terms tend to have a higher nitrogen surplus per hectare on average. This is consistent with their higher rates of production intensity, but poses a challenge in terms of sustainable intensification and expansion. That said this analysis demonstrates that the nitrogen use efficiency of milk production is positively correlated with economic performance, with more intensive farms producing relatively more milk per kilogram of nitrogen surplus. From the perspective of social sustainability, demographic traits also tend to be positively correlated with economic performance. Given a growing recognition of the need for interconnected policy in the area of sustainability, this research should help inform policy debates and provides a guide for the undertaking of similar assessments elsewhere.     

Organic farming for local markets in Kenya: Contribution of conversion and certification to environmental benefits

Organic farming is a way to address environmental issues. In Kenya, organic production for domestic markets based on local certification represents a solution to both economic and environmental issues. We propose to address this latter issue. Indeed, no quantitative studies have been dedicated to these systems’ impacts on the environment. However, their theoretical benefits can be weakened, first by their functioning based on internal control and indirect external control, and second by the risk of self-selection since farmers using low levels of synthetic inputs have less effort to make in order to enter in conversion process. Thanks to unique farm-level survey data along with the propensity score matching method, we assess the producer-level effects of organic certification for fruits and vegetables on agro-ecological practices. We show that conversion and certification are associated with organic farming techniques and positive perceptions of different statements about environmental values. However, we do not notice any additional effects of certification compared to conversion alone. Although economic issues are important, we focus on environmental issues that appear as important for smallholders. In a context with no public regulation, conversion-only farmers and locally certified farmers could be a lever for a more sustainable agriculture.     

Data, Information, and Rural Environmental Policy: What Will the Next Ten Years Bring?

The next ten years will see an acceleration of three current trends: (1) the growing use of geographical information systems, (2) increasingly detailed farm-level record keeping, tracking the location and timing of fertilizer, pesticide, and water use, and (3) increased reporting requirements for farm-level chemical use. Combined, these changes will reduce the costs of monitoring and regulating farmer behavior. Yet, they may also allow information to substitute for both inputs and for regulation. Improved linkage of agronomic, economic, and environmental data can help ago-environmental subsidy programs achieve greater environmental benefits at lower budgetary cost and can help in the design of more flexible, less costly environmental regulations.     

Spatial Yield Risk Across Region, Crop and Aggregation Method

A researcher interested in crop yield risk analysis often has to contend with a lack of field- or farm-level data. While spatially aggregated yield data are often readily available from various agencies, aggregation distortions for farm-level analysis may exist. This paper addresses how much aggregation distortion might be expected and whether findings are robust across wheat, canola and flax grown in two central Canadian production regions, differing mainly by rainfall, frost-free growing days and soil type. Using Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation data from 1980 to 1990, this research, regardless of crop or region analyzed, indicates that (i) spatial patterns in risk are absent; (ii) use of aggregate data overwhelmingly under-estimates field-level yield risk; and (iii) use of a relative risk measure compared to an absolute risk measure leads to slightly less aggregation distortion. Analysts interested in conducting farm-level analysis using aggregate data are offered a range of adjustment factors to adjust for potential bias.     

Peasant farmer behavior and cereal technologies: Stochastic programming analysis in Niger

Peasant farmers in Sahelian West Africa adjust to rainfall uncertainties in the agricultural season by making decisions sequentially as a function of the evolving rainfall patterns. Understanding such flexibilities in farmer decision-making is central to technology introduction. This paper determines how sequential decision-making under weather uncertainty affects the adoption and farm-level effects of cereal technologies in Niger. The study also draws policy implications for a price floor to arrest the substantial fall in cereal prices in good rainfall years when farmers have more grains to sell. The methodology used is Discrete Stochastic Programming. This paper shows that the ability of peasant farmers to adapt cropping and resource-management strategies to the rainfall patterns is the basis for their survival in this high-risk environment. Model results show that by (a) carrying a portfolio mix of varieties of varying maturities, and (b) making sequential decisions based upon rainfall expectations, farmers can adapt to the production uncertainties. Breeding programs should therefore be diversified to develop not only early-maturing cultivars, but also improved intermediate and long-season varieties.     

Utilising farm-level panel data to estimate climate change impacts and adaptation potentials

We combine farm accounting data with high-resolution meteorological data, and climate scenarios to estimate climate change impacts and adaptation potentials at the farm level. To do so, we adapt the seminal model of Moore and Lobell (2014) who applied panel data econometrics to data aggregated from the farm to the regional (subnational) level. We discuss and empirically investigate the advantages and challenges of applying such models to farm-level data, including issues of endogeneity of explanatory variables, heterogeneity of farm responses to weather shocks, measurement errors in meteorological variables, and aggregation bias. Empirical investigations into these issues reveal that endogeneity due to measurement errors in temperature and precipitation variables, as well as heterogeneous responses of farms toward climate change may be problematic. Moreover, depending on how data are aggregated, results differ substantially compared to farm-level analysis. Based on data from Austria and two climate scenarios (Effective Measures and High Emission) for 2040, we estimate that the profits of farms will decline, on average, by 4.4% (Effective Measures) and 10% (High Emission). Adaptation options help to considerably ameliorate the adverse situation under both scenarios. Our results reinforce the need for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Agricultural Policy in the 21st Century: Economics and Politics

This paper provides a framework for thinking about agricultural policy, why and how it is introduced, and how it changes over time. This framework suggests that agricultural policy will be influenced by both concerns for efficiency and lobbying. While agricultural policy will not always be effective, it will be relatively stable, at least in terms of its broad outlines. Underlying this broad stability, however, will be considerable small‐scale change as program and policy details shift in response to a changing environment. When policy changes in a major way, which it almost always will, the shift will be abrupt—a punctuation. These abrupt changes come as attention is eventually paid to areas and/or issues that are increasingly understood to be not working. While there is considerable room for economic analysis in the policy process, it will not be the main driver; this role belongs to politics—the ability to change the discourse around a policy issue in such a way that different evaluations and interpretations of the policy and its impact are created. Based on the analysis in this paper, it is argued that supply management is more likely to see significant change than business risk management programs, since more attention seems to be currently directed at the former issue. It is also argued that although proponents of local food, organic production, and urban agriculture have had some success at getting attention focused on these issues, this success will not translate into any major policy changes, in part because markets for these products are developing and appear to be working reasonably well.     

Effectively communicating economics to policy makers*

Many economists are concerned with communicating the results of economic analysis or the implications of economic theory to policy makers. Our effectiveness in doing this varies widely for different individuals and different issues. The present paper is an attempt to provide practical advice to enhance this effectiveness. It considers policy adoption in the light of published literature about the adoption of innovations by small business managers. A small survey of policy makers and policy advisors was conducted, providing a number of practical tips and insights.     

Contract theory and agricultural policy analysis: a discussion and survey of recent developments*

This paper surveys some recent developments in contract theory and illustrates how this theory might be useful for conceptualising policy issues related to vertical coordination and contracting in the agro‐food industry. The article begins by surveying contract theory to identify key economic distortions that can potentially justify government involvement. Next, the general ingredients of agricultural contracts that are most likely to create inefficiencies are discussed. Finally, controversial aspects of real‐world agricultural contracts are highlighted and lessons from the theory are used to determine whether government intervention is justified. Actual legislation that has been proposed in the USA is analysed where appropriate and topics that await further research are also discussed.     

对土地政策参与宏观调控的几点认识

从土地公有制以及土地政策对经济增长、产业结构以及经济布局的调控两个方面论证了土地政策参与宏观调控的可行性.通过对货币政策在此次宏观调控作用不明显的分析,提出了土地政策参与宏观调控的必要性.同时分析了土地政策参与宏观调控在实施环境方面和实施过程中存在的包括土地利用规划、土地产权、土地政策参与宏观调控的时间、力度等问题,并提出解决问题的思路.     

Profitability and Efficiency of High Nature Value Marginal Farming in England

The UK Brexit vote triggered a new wave of policy developments for a future outside the EU. In this context, we analyse the business performance of English hill and upland farms, characterised by marginal economic conditions but also high nature value (HNV). The analysis aims to help identify farm-level management and policy options for greater economic, environmental and social sustainability. Business performance is measured as technical efficiency and the occurrence and persistence of abnormal profits, estimated through stochastic frontier analysis and static and dynamic panel-data methods. The results help indicate rationales for recent trends including farm enlargement, farm family diversification, and agri-environment scheme entry. The single farm payment is found to be negatively associated with farm technical efficiency while agri-environmental subsidies were positively associated to short-term farm profitability. Farm adaptation and resilience during a period of likely turbulence in external circumstances is discussed in light of these findings, as well as potential parallels with marginal HNV areas across Europe.     

Farm-level efficiency and productivity measurement using panel data: wool production in south-west Victoria

In this article we explore some issues surrounding the use of farm-level efficiency and productivity estimates for benchmarking studies. Using an eight-year balanced panel of Victorian wool producers we analyse annual variation between estimates of farm-level technical efficiency derived using Data Envelopment Analysis and Malmquist estimates of Total Factor Productivity. We find that farms change their relative rank in terms of efficiency across years. Also, unlike aggregate studies of Total Factor Productivity, we find at best erratic and modest growth, a worrying result for this industry. However, caution is needed when interpreting these results, and for that matter, benchmarking analysis as currently practised when using frontier estimation techniques like Data Envelopment Analysis.     

SENSITIVITY OF FARM PLANS UNDER RISK-AVERSE BEHAVIOUR: A NOTE ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS

This study demonstrates that the intensity of farm-level land use can be extremely sensitive to minor reductions in expected farm income when the risk-averse farmer makes utility maximising decisions. The study uses directly elicited utility functions for farmers in the North of England in conjunction with MOTAD generated E, V frontiers. The results imply that instability encourages the use of less intensive farming methods and therefore could actually assist the achievement of environmental policy goals.     

农户环境友好型农业技术选择行为及异质性基于离散选择实验的研究

目的 中国是世界上最大的化肥和农药使用国,农业绿色发展面临严峻挑战,这与缺少国家层面和农田管理层面为农户专门设计的环境友好型技术及配套激励政策不无关系。方法 文章利用离散选择实验（Discrete choice experiment,DCE）,以环境友好型农业技术（Agri-environmental technologies,AETs）及配套政策为基础设计农业环境政策方案（Agri-environmental schemes,AES）。用混合Logit模型（Mixed Logit model,MXL）来揭示农户在假想的AES情景下对AETs的选择行为及影响因素,证实农户偏好异质性的存在。后续条件Logit模型（Conditional Logit model,CLM）引入交互变量进一步揭示农户的偏好异质性来源。结果 研究表明补偿额度及农户社会经济变量是影响其参与AES的主要因素,且相对于退出保持现有耕种方式不变农户更偏好于实施AES。该研究还证实了农户对AETs选择偏好存在异质性,因此灵活的政策设计是AES顺利实施的重要保障。结论 鉴于对农户选择偏好及异质性的充分了解,政策制定者可以科学地制定和微调农业环境政策,设计AES以最大限度地减少各类农户反对意见,吸引绝大多数农户采纳AETs实践,提高项目参与率。     

Deforestation and land use change: sparse data environments

Understanding determinants of land use in developing countries has become a priority for researchers and policy makers with a wide range of interests. For the vast majority of these land use issues, the location of change is as important as its magnitude. This overview paper highlights new economic approaches to modeling land use determinants that combine non‐traditional data sources with novel economic models and econometric techniques. A key feature is that location is central to the analysis. All data elements include an explicit location attribute, estimation techniques include the potential for complications from spatial effects, and results are location‐specific. The paper reviews the theory underlying these models. Since this paper is intended to provide the potential new researcher with an introduction to the challenges of this analysis, we present an overview of how remotely‐sensed data are collected and processed, describe key GIS concepts and identify sources of data for this type of econometric analysis. Finally, selected papers using these techniques are reviewed.     

Land contamination risk management in Cameroon: A critical review of the existing policy framework

Land affected by contamination from human activities has been identified as a major environmental problem in developed countries and there are established mechanisms for identifying, prioritising, characterising, assessing and remediating the land so that risks to human health and environmental receptors are minimised. However, comparative mechanisms and approaches for sustainable land management are often lacking in developing countries such as Cameroon. This paper presents a critical review of the existing policy framework in Cameroon in relation to environmental management, particularly land contamination.It is established that in Cameroon, there is an acute lack of comprehensive information on land contamination from economic development and industrialisation, inadequate legal and institutional framework, weak enforcement capacity and unsatisfactory coordination between various stakeholders towards sustainable land management practices. The coastal town of Douala, which has the highest level of industrial activity in the sub region is used to demonstrate how dealing with land contamination is a public health priority and requires attention in the context of sustainable development. The United Kingdom (UK) regulatory policy framework on land contamination risk management is used to show how land contamination issues and risk management approaches, including conceptual site models, could be introduced into the sustainability discourse in Cameroon. A number of recommendations including proposals for a radical overhaul of the current regulatory policy framework are formulated and presented. Specifically, the creation of an independent Cameroon Environment Protection Agency (CEPA) that will be the main regulatory body responsible for developing and implementing the policy proposals in this paper is advocated.     

FOOD,TECHNOLOGY AND EMPLOYMENT: THE FARM-LEVEL POST-HARVEST SYSTEM IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The prevention of food loss in the farm-level post-harvest system has become an objective of food policy in many developing countries. This objective is founded on the allegations that food losses are high, that technology is available to prevent or reduce these losses and that, as a consequence, hungry people will be less hungry. This paper first reviews the development of this policy objective. It then goes on to argue that this formulation of post-harvest policy is inaccurate and frequently misleading. Evidence on the levels of food loss under traditional practices, and on the costs and benefits of technical change, show that at farm level cost reduction is the chief influence on technological choice; from a social perspective, employment and hence income distribution considerations are often the decisive factor in evaluating new techniques.