THE COST OF INCOME REDISTRIBUTION IN AUSTRALIA

This paper analyses the effect of raising effective marginal tax rates on the income of the representative household in each gross income decile in Australia by one percentage point, and distributing the proceeds of the tax increase either in the form of an equal grant, or as an equal payment to members of households in the lower half of the income distribution. The effectiveness of the program in redistributing income is measured as the ratio of total gains in disposable income to households in target deciles to losses in non-target groups, or as the proportional reduction in the poverty gap. The cost is measured as the ratio of the sum of the income-equivalent of changes in the welfare of non-target groups to those of target groups, or as the ratio of income-equivalent losses to gains.     

On The Distributional Effects Of Reducing Capital Taxes*

This article asks whether household heterogeneity and market incompleteness have quantitatively important implications for the welfare effects of tax changes. We compare a representative‐agent economy to an economy in which households face idiosyncratic uninsurable income risk. The income process is consistent with empirical estimates and implies a realistic wealth distribution. We find that capital tax cuts imply large welfare gains in the representative‐agent economy. However, when households are heterogeneous, substantial redistribution during transition means that only a minority will support capital tax cuts, whereas most households can expect large welfare losses.     

Environmental taxes with heterogeneous consumers: an application to energy consumption in France

This paper constructs a model with four groups of households who have preferences over labor supply, consumption of polluting (energy related) and non-polluting (non-energy) goods, and emissions. It quantifies the model for the French economy and computes its optimal tax equilibria under nine second-best tax regimes. We find that the redistributive role of environmental taxes requires the polluting goods to be taxed at a rate much below their marginal social damage. These goods may even require an outright subsidy if the society values equality ‘a lot’. Secondly, if environmental taxes that have an exclusively externality-correcting role, they benefit all types—although the gains are rather modest. The gains and losses become more substantial when environmental taxes have a redistributive role as well. Third, setting the environmental tax at its Pigouvian level, rather than its optimal externality-correcting-cum-redistributive level, benefits the high-income group at the expense of the low-income groups. Fourth, nonlinear taxation of polluting goods, and nonlinear commodity taxation in general, is a powerful redistributive mechanism. Fifth, introducing environmental taxes in the current French tax system, with its suboptimal income taxes, results in substantial welfare gains for the highest income group and a sizable loss for the least well-off persons.     

The impact of the Indonesian income tax reform: A CGE analysis

This study evaluates the impacts of Indonesia's recent income tax reforms on key macroeconomic variables, as well as the impacts on poverty and income distribution. It was found that the reductions in personal income tax and corporate income tax increase economic growth under a balanced budget assumption. The policy reforms also lead to a small reduction in the incidence of poverty. However, the policies also lead to an increase in income inequality because the tax cut is more beneficial to households in the highest income categories. It is recommended that future tax cuts should target the urban and rural poor.     

THE IMPACT OF CAPITAL GAINS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME IN BELGIUM

In an earlier paper, we presented estimates of capital gains for a number of categories of assets owned by Belgian households. The purpose of the present paper is to see how the distribution of disposable income between socio-economic groups is modified when one adopts a "broadened" definition of income which includes capital gains corrected for losses of purchasing power.
The main result of the study is that at current prices, the adoption of a broadened definition of income strongly increases disparities between socio-economic groups. However, when one takes into account losses in purchasing power, conclusions differ according to the period analyzed. For the years 1953–68, it appears that the distribution of broadened disposable income is more unequal than the distribution of disposable income. For the years 1969–77 when inflation was high, the adoption of a broadened definition of income has reduced disparities, with the important exception of old age pensioners.     

The sustainability of economic transformation

The paper analyzes the feasibility of sustaining both macroeconomic stability and political support during economic transformation. Macroeconomic stability requires that state sector losses plus public infrastructure investment be financed by tax revenue plus any external assistance. Political sustainability depends on the income gains and losses experienced by three groups—state sector workers, private sector workers, and private savers/investors. The aggregate income gains from allowing heterogeneous workers to make occupational choices consistent with their comparative advantages can outweigh or significantly offset the short-run economic efficiency costs of maintaining political support for the transformation. Successful transformation may depend on external assistance, but this need will diminish over time.     

Some aspects of the taxation of capital gains

The analysis of the effects of capital gains taxation requires a careful modelling both of the details of the tax code and the imperfections in the capital market. Under the standard assumptions concerning perfect capital markets and under the standard idealizations of the tax code, there are several strategies by which rational investors can avoid note only all taxes on their capital income, but also all taxes on their wage income; these strategies leave individuals' consumption and bequests in each state of nature and at each date unchanged from what they would have been in the absence of taxes. Although certain detailed provisions of the tax code may limit the extent to which rational investors can avail themselves of these tax avoidance activities, there are ways, in a perfect capital market, by which the effects of these restrictions can be ameliorated. Accordingly, any analysis of the effects of capital taxation must focus on imperfect capital markets.If individuals face limitations on the amounts which they can borrow and/or if there are limitations on short sales, then under some circumstances there is a locked-in effect (individuals do not sell securities which they would have sold in the absence of taxation); but under other circumstances individuals are induced to sell securities that they otherwise would have held, in order to take advantage of the asymmetric treatment of short-term losses and long-term gains. A policy of realizing gains as soon as they become eligible for long term treatment dominates the policy of postponing the realization of capital gains, provided the gains are not too large.A simple general equilibrium model is constructed within which it is shown that the taxation of capital gains may increase the volatility of asset prices, and lead individuals not to trade when they otherwise would. While the analysis casts doubt on the significance of the welfare losses resulting from these exchange inefficiencies, there are circumstances in which the tax leads to production inefficiencies, e.g. terminating projects at other than the socially optimal date.Finally, we argue that the focus of some recent policy debates on the short-run revenue impact of a decrease in the tax rate on capital gains is misplaced: even when the short-run revenue impact is positive, consumption may increase (thus exacerbating inflationary pressures) and private savings may decrease (thus leading to a lower level of investment in the private sector). Moreover, there is some presumption that the long-run revenue impact is negative.Our analysis has some important implications for empirical research. In particular, it suggests that the impact of the tax is not adequately summarized by a single number, such as the ‘effective tax rate’ representing the average ratio of tax payments to capital gains. Moreover, the impact of the tax cannot be assessed by looking only at reported capital gains and losses.     

A TALE OF TAX POLICIES IN OPEN ECONOMIES

To evaluate fiscal policy reforms for Euro‐area countries, this article develops and calibrates a small open economy model. Debt reduction reforms require higher tax rates in the short term in exchange for lower rates in the long term as the debt‐servicing burden falls. Using the capital income tax to implement such a policy leads to welfare gains; the consumption tax, a very small welfare gain; and the labor income tax, a welfare loss. Holding fixed the long‐run debt–output ratio, offsetting a lower capital income tax with either a higher labor income or consumption tax generally yields welfare gains.     

The consequences of an unknown debt target

Several proposals to reduce U.S. debt reveal large differences in their targets. We examine how an unknown debt target affects economic activity using a real business cycle model in which Bayesian households learn about a state-dependent debt target in an endogenous tax rule. Recent papers use stochastic volatility shocks to study fiscal uncertainty. In our setup, the fiscal rule is time-varying due to unknown changes in the debt target. Households infer the current debt target from a noisy tax rule and jointly estimate the transition probabilities. Three key findings emerge from our analysis: (1) limited information about the debt target amplifies the effect of tax shocks through changes in expected tax rates; (2) the welfare losses are an order of magnitude larger when both the debt target state and transition matrix are unknown than when only the debt target state is unknown to households; (3) an unknown debt target likely reduced the stimulative effect of the ARRA and uncertainty about the sunset provision in the Bush tax cuts may have slowed the recovery and led to welfare losses.     

MACROECONOMIC AND REDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF CONSUMPTION TAXES IN THE USA*

This paper studies the effect of an increase in consumption taxes using a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations calibrated to the US economy. When the proceeds are used to reduce income taxes, the reform raises the aggregate capital and labour supply in the long run. Workers increase labour supply immediately in response to the reform, while consumption rises only gradually. The tax reform also transfers wealth from old consumers to young consumers. As a result, while future generations experience significant welfare gains, current generations, particularly old consumers, tend to experience sizable welfare losses. When the proceeds are used for a lump‐sum transfer, the aggregate capital and labour both decrease in the long run. This reform is welfare‐improving for the current low‐income households.     

Open borders

There is a large body of evidence indicating that cross-country differences in income levels are associated with differences in productivity. If workers are much more productive in one country than in another, restrictions on immigration lead to large efficiency losses. The paper quantifies these losses, using a model in which efficiency differences are labor-augmenting, and free trade in product markets leads to factor price equalization, so that wages are equal across countries when measured in efficiency units of labor. The estimated gains from removing immigration restrictions are huge. Using a simple static model of migration costs, the estimated net gains from open borders are about the same as the gains from a growth miracle that more than doubles the income level in less-developed countries.     

ASSESSING THE WELFARE IMPACT OF TAX REFORM: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2001 U.S. TAX CUT

This paper implements a relatively simple methodological approach to estimate the impact on family welfare of a specific tax reform. The measured impact can differ greatly from simple marginal tax rate comparisons, and conclusions about the distribution of the welfare impact can vary depending on the basis of comparison. For example, absolute welfare gains from the 2001 U.S. tax reform were concentrated among the highest and lowest income families, whereas welfare gains measured as a share of pre‐tax income are found to be nearly monotonically declining in income.     

Income tax deductions for losses as insurance revisited

Kaplow (1992) shows that allowing income tax deductions for losses as partial insurance is undesirable in the presence of private insurance markets. This paper revisits the issue by considering a model that integrates Kaplow (1992) with Stiglitz (1982). We address the following question: Whether the income tax deduction for losses is part of an optimal income tax system. We show that introducing the income tax deduction for uninsured losses to complement an optimal nonlinear labor income tax will Pareto-improve welfare, provided that: (i) information is incomplete for the government as in the Stiglitz framework, and (ii) the premium for private insurance is unfair or moral hazard is present.     

The incidence of import liberalization with and without a value added tax: an application to bangladesh

This paper examines the impact of import tariffs and tariff-replacing indirect taxes on the welfare of households grouped by the size distribution of income. A computable general equilibrium model for Bangladesh is simulated to examine the removal of quantitative restrictions and tariffs as well as the replacement of trade taxes with a value added tax (VAT). Import liberalization alone expands the manufacturing sector and increases the welfare of lower income households. If a uniform VAT is placed on both imports and all non-agricultural production in order to replace the lost tariff revenue for the government, some of the gains from import liberalization are diminished. If exports are exempted from the VAT, the gains are sustained to a greater degree. With a combination of tariff liberalization, quota markups, and the VAT, the economy goes through a contraction and the welfare of all households is reduced.     

城镇居民间接税负担的演变

本文研究了进入新世纪以来,税收收入高速增长对于城镇不同收入家庭间接税负担的影响.收入越高的家庭负担的间接税越多,但是税收占收入的比例却是低收入家庭的比例大于高收入家庭的比例,间接税是累退的.从2000年到2005年,所有家庭的税收负担比例都增加了,税收累退的程度没有变化.通过把税收负担变化分为税收征管和经济结构引起的实际税率变化和家庭消费结构变化两部分,本文发现实际税率提高是近年来所有家庭税收负担增加的主要原因.     

Give and Take Between Households and the State: Development and Application of A Benefaction–Contribution Ratio

This study defines a “Benefaction–Contribution Ratio” (BCR), describing the extent to which households are net beneficiaries of or contributors to the economy in relation to income and consumption. Such issues are central to assessment and targeting of policies such as social welfare and taxation. We apply the ratio to 21,144 South African households. South Africa employs various taxation‐funded social grants and subsidized services. A central question is how such transfers affect real household income and consumption. We find that the constitution of social transfers as a function of tax adjusted earned income significantly augments household buying power. Furthermore, we hypothesize and find a negative curvilinear shape which has implications for design of taxation and welfare. This constitution and distribution of this ratio may be useful for international benchmarking and household planning, and as an economic predictor of outcomes such as job seeking, entrepreneurial behavior, family planning, migration, and tax evasion.     

Reported gross income and marginal tax rates: estimation of the behavioural reactions of Spanish taxpayers

This article estimates, for the Spanish personal income tax, the elasticity of reported gross income to marginal tax rates. The identification of this elasticity has been performed using the reform approved by Law 35/2006, which came into force in January 2007. The elasticities obtained suggest the existence of important efficiency costs, with significant regional differences. The average elasticity estimated for Spain as a whole is 0.676. However, this elasticity is highly dispersed throughout the Spanish administrative regions, which indicates the unequal power of distortion of the tax. Thus, households whose principal source of income is salary display an elasticity of 0.337, compared to 0.682 for households whose main income source comes from business or savings. Lastly, a positive correlation is also detected between elasticity and income level: an elasticity of 3.6 is reached for taxpayers with an annual gross income exceeding 100 000€.     

Should Sales Taxes Be Imposed on E‐Commerce?

We study the impact of E‐commerce across state lines in the United States on tax revenue, public good provision, and real income. In particular, in light of the unenforceable nature of interstate taxation, we evaluate the potential gains from coordinating sales and income state taxes among sovereign jurisdictions. We find that the revenue at risk is small and that the welfare gains or losses of any countervailing policy measures, in particular those associated with the Streamlined Sales Tax Project, are even smaller.     

On Measuring Inequity in Taxation Among Groups of Income Units

In this paper a method for analyzing the fairness of an income tax system when portioning the population into heterogeneous socio‐economic groups is proposed. The equitable tax system is defined by the three axioms given by Kakwani and Lambert in 1998 and, as they suggest, inequity is evaluated by the negative influences on the redistributive effect of the tax associated with axiom violations. Measuring the extent of axiom violations among households belonging to different groups, we improve the Kakwani and Lambert analysis, which is able to detect only the existence of overall inequities. We propose a method that allows for evaluation of the contribution of each group to the overall inequity. Moreover, the adopted method enables disentangling the directions of violations. The obtained results allow us to judge how axiom violations discriminate among groups in their reciprocal relationships. An application to the 2010 Italian income tax reveals that inequities disproportionately penalize the household typologies. More precisely, unfairness affects households with children more severely than the other household groups.     

Household Transport Demand in a CGE-framework

The main objective of this study is to improve the modelling of household demand for transport services in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The new extended model is then used for numerical calculations to test how the Swedish economy reacts to a carbon target. Special attention will be given to distributional effects and the connection between labour supply and work journeys in a sparsely populated country like Sweden. A differentiation between trip purposes and trip length, a complementary relationship between work journeys and labour supply, and a subdivision of households by density of population and income influence the numerical results. Our main conclusions from the analysis of a carbon target are that if the carbon tax revenue is recycled by decreasing the employers’ social contribution fee, welfare costs are lower than with lump-sum replacements of tax revenue to households. The welfare cost may be reduced even further if work journeys are not additionally taxed as compared to the base year. However, the lower total welfare cost is obtained at the expense of making society more unequal, since both labour tax recycling (cuts in employers’ social contributions) and exempting tax on work journeys will make low income groups carry a higher burden. An increased carbon dioxide tax is also shown to increase welfare differences between sparsely populated areas and city regions in Sweden.