On estimation of the CES production function—Revisited

Estimation of the non-linear Constant Elasticity of Scale (CES) function is generally considered problematic due to convergence problems and unstable and/or meaningless results. These problems often arise from a non-smooth objective function with large flat areas, the discontinuity of the CES function where the elasticity of substitution is one, and possibly significant rounding errors where the elasticity of substitution is close to one. We suggest three (combinable) solutions that alleviate these problems and improve the reliability and stability of the results.     

On the relationship between the value of the mark and German production

This study employs Johansen's cointegration technique to determine the long-run relationship between exchange value of the DM and German production. It is shown that depreciation of the DM has a long-run expansionary impact on German production. This conclusion is based on a new method of selecting the order of VAR and the appropriate cointegrating vector simultaneously.     

Optimal fiscal policy in the Uzawa-Lucas model with CES production

This paper devises an endogenous growth model with human capital in the Uzawa-Lucas framework in which the average human capital has a positive external effect on the goods sector. Unlike previous works, this paper assumes that output is produced with a CES technology and analyzes the existence, uniqueness, and stability of equilibrium. Also, a fiscal policy is devised that is capable of providing the required incentives to optimize the competitive equilibrium. In order to correct the market failure caused by the externality, the authors introduce a subsidy to human capital and analyze how it can be financed in an optimal way. Some simulation results are presented.     

On the relationship between hierarchy and type morphisms

Here, we establish a relationship between hierarchy and type morphisms. Both concepts have been used to relate the types in one structure to types in a second “larger” structure. In general, the two concepts may differ, in the sense that a hierarchy morphism need not be a type morphism. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition under which the two concepts coincide. We go on to provide situations under which this condition must be satisfied.     

Technological change in energy systems: Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R&D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R&D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does.     

On the existence of a regulated production function

This paper examines the generalization of the regulated production function. It characterizes the set of admissible regulatory constraints that are compatible with the existence of a regulated production function in a sufficiently weak framework to encompass the usual rate-of-return constraints à la Averch and Johnson and value constraints.     

略论生态经济学与可持续发展经济学的关系

对生态环境的狭义理解，决定了可持续发展经济学与生态经济学是大范畴与小范畴的关系，这种关系决定了它们之间有许多共同的地方，但又存在着许多差别，因此它们之间存在互补的关系，正确处理这种关系，就能促进两者的共同发展。     

On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth

Using a large panel data set from both developed and developing economies and employing the PSTR and dynamic GMM techniques, this study highlights two aspects of the inflation–growth relationship. First, it analyzes the nonlinearity of the relationship and identifies several thresholds for the global sample and for various income-specific sub-samples. Second, it identifies some country-based macroeconomic features that influence this nonlinearity. Our empirical results substantiate both views and validate the fact that inflation–growth nonlinearity is sensitive to a country׳s level of financial development, capital accumulation, trade openness and government expenditures. Moreover, these country-specific characteristics result in some marked differences in this nonlinear relationship.     

On the relationship between financial inclusion and bank performance

This study examines the relationship between various financial inclusion measures and banks' performance across multiple countries with varying institutional, regulatory and income levels. To construct an aggregate bank performance index, we employ principal component analysis, which utilises a set of critical indicators summarised by the CAMEL rating system, including banks' solvency, asset quality, efficiency, profitability and liquidity. Our primary findings indicate that different measures of financial inclusion exhibit varying associations with bank performance. Specifically, there is a trade-off between bank performance and credit deepening, especially in high-income nations. Conversely, in low-income nations, higher financial inclusion, measured by deposits to GDP, number of deposits, and number of borrowers, does not affect bank performance adversely. Banks in low-income nations could achieve significant gains by improving financial access and enhancing regulatory environments.     

On the relationship between population change and sustainable development

This paper investigates the relationship between population growth and economic growth, through the study of fertility choices and their effects on natural resources. It aims at analyzing the interactions between endogenous fertility choices and the environment and their link to the sustainable matter. We analyze a growth model driven by natural resources and without production, where agents have jointly to determine consumption and fertility, taking into account the effects of their decisions on the dynamics of natural resources. We adopt the most optimistic view on natural capital (it generates endogenous growth) and the weakest notion of sustainable paths (all variables are positive): in such a framework we expect that sustainable paths exist. We instead show that this is not always true. In fact, even if renewal capacity of natural resources is unbounded, not always can a sustainable path be found: this depends on the difference between the stationary fertility rate and the mortality rate. If the stationary fertility is lower than the mortality rate, a sustainable path will not be found, and in such a case public intervention is necessary in order to address the economy along a sustainable path. This can simply be done through policies affecting public attention to environmental protection or the intensity of the dilution effect.     

On the relationship between fertility and public national debt

Public debt and fertility are two issues of major concern in the current economic policy debate, especially in countries with below-replacement-fertility and large debt (which appears further enlarged as a consequence of the recent world financial distress 2008–2009). In this paper we show that, at the steady state, public debt is in general harmful for fertility, in that debt issuing almost ever crowds fertility. The relationship is however reversed if debt is sufficiently low and the share of capital (labor) in the economy is sufficiently low (high). Hence, our analysis would recommend that developed, capital intensive economies (such as OECD countries) aiming at a fertility recovery should reduce national debt, while developing, labor intensive economies, aiming at reducing fertility, should increase (reduce) national debt only if they are debt virtuous (vicious).     

On the relationship between body mass index and marital dissolution

The economic literature on body mass index (BMI) and marital dissolution uses simple correlations to suggest that it is the latter that alters the former. We argue here that the opposite is also possible because the higher the BMI, the lower the remarriage potential and the greater the demand for health care, which should decrease the probability of marital dissolution. We empirically explore the role of BMI on marital dissolution showing that those who are overweight are more likely to stay married. This is maintained when we examine causality by exploiting the exogeneity of the dates during which data are collected combined with BMI’s seasonality. Although BMI appears to stabilize marriage, this implies a reduction in the bargaining power of individuals with a high BMI in marriage, which, according to our findings, has a greater impact on White women.     

On the short-run relationship between the income distribution-growth and debt-growth regimes

This paper examines the short-run relationship between the income distribution-growth and debt-growth regimes using a simple, post-Keynesian, demand-driven model. While mechanisms of wage-led and profit-led growth have been revealed, their relationship with debt-led and debt-burdened growth is yet to be clarified, because arguments on these growth regimes were developed separately. This paper shows that the growth regimes transform as the regime-switching parameters in the IS balance change. By way of theoretical analysis, this paper presents some important implications for (i) the possibility of the combination of growth regimes; (ii) the features of post-Keynesian economic analysis of income distribution, debt, and demand-led growth, which sharply contrast with the basic neo-classical theory; and (iii) theoretical validation of recent empirical results. Moreover, this paper also suggests some policy implications or lessons for the combination of economic growth regimes.     

On the aggregate production function and its presence in modern macroeconomics

The aim of this article is to assess some possible consequences on modern macroeconomics following by the acceptance of the neo-classical paradigm in its representation of productive processes through the aggregate production function. In the first part of the paper we will reconsider the analytical meaninf of the aggregate production function, and in particular of its'hidden’ elements in order to remind the reader of their evident, albeit silenced limitation. In the second part we will recal that profound traces of this obsolete paradigm are well present in modern macoreconomics, where the aggregate production function is still an unavoidable tool, and we will argue that damaging consequences arise in some of the major macroeconomic fields, like growth and cyclical fluctuations.     

On the relationship between aggregate merger activity and the stock market

This paper presents substantial evidence to show that the well documented correlation between aggregate merger activity and indices of share prices is unstable, and thus of little predictive value. Further, Granger causality testing suggests that such correlations are spurious, reflecting other more fundamental forces which jointly determine movements in both series.     

On testing the stability of input-output relationships in the Indian economy

Scepticism is often expressed about plan models for their reliance on input-output relationships based on not-very-recent data. An attempt is made in this paper to demonstrate, with Indian data, that temporal changes in input-output relationships in general are likely to be small. In a few crucial cases, however, the changes may be more than nominal and adjustments for intra-sectoral product mix and technological changes would be necessary for minimising the errors in intermediate demand projections. While the applicability of these findings to economies with a slow rate of growth seems plausible, the same cannot be said for other developing economies experiencing a much faster rate of growth.     

On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999–August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly time-varying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads' determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.