我国通信部门对经济增长的外溢效应——基于面板数据和动态Feder模型

首先梳理了通信部门对经济增长的外溢性影响的特点,然后选取动态Feder模型,运用1995—2008年我国省级面板数据,对我国通信部门与经济增长之间的关系进行定量分析。结果表明:整体而言,我国通信部门对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,表现为通信部门自身促进经济增长的直接效应,以及通信部门通过技术、信息等多渠道产生的较强的外溢效应;从区域层面看,东、中部地区通信部门的外溢效应显著大于西部地区。     

Towards an information economy : The case of Singapore

Recent empirical studies have documented the emergence of information-based economies in developed countries within Europe, the U.S.A., Japan, and Australia. Casual observations suggest that the newly industrializing country of Singapore is proceeding towards a similar trend. The primary purpose of this paper is to account for the share of Singapore's national product which originates from informational activities. In particular, we define and estimate the size of Singapore's information sector within an input-output framework. Our results indicated that a sizable portion of Singapore's economy is information-based. In view of the significant penetration of informational activities in economic production, advances in communication technology and concomitant improvements in information-handling capabilities are bound to affect factor productivities and incomes with consequences for a country's pattern of employment and production structure. It is anticipated that an economics of communication becomes necessary for an awareness of communication technology as a choice variable in economic planning. We conclude our discussion with an assessment of the admissability of an information sector concept in economic analysis and the usefulness of empirical studies based on such a concept.     

低碳技术是否能成为新一轮经济增长点?——低碳技术与IT技术对经济增长影响的比较研究

技术进步是经济增长的重要决定因素。本文从投资、有效劳动投入量及生产率这三方面剖析了低碳技术与IT技术对经济增长的不同影响机制,分析了在保持当前技术发展速度的前提下,低碳技术将成为新一轮经济增长点的原因,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国经济在改革发展中呈现效率驱动型特征——二论对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的理论解释

现有文献表明,大多数学者认为改革以来中国经济快速增长属于要素投入驱动型增长．不可能持续。对此,本文在以前结构转换研究的基础上,指出通常使用的索洛增长因素核算方程中隐含的效率提高类型与实际不符,由此可导致严重低估实际的综合效率提高;而由Klenowand Rodriguez—Clare（1997）发展的核算方法才是封中国经济增长因素进行分解的正确方法。然後对以此方法对中国经济增长因素分解测算的结果进行了详细分析,据此得出了三个基本结论：第一、改革以来中国经济实现了效率提高型快速增长,综合效率提高作出了主要贡献,要素投入也有一定的贡献,但比重较小;第二、改革以来中国经济的增长模式不同于改革前,後者的特征被再次证明主要是依靠要素投入;第三、改革以来中国经济的综合效率提高,主要来源于二元结构转换效应和经济体制转轨效应,教育和科研开发的贡献属于成长中的因素。所以,也不同于发达市场经济的常规增长方式。这些就是中国式综合效率提高驱动型经济增长的特征。     

服务业的经济增长效应研究——来自我国东部地区的实证检验

服务业发展水平是衡量一个国家或地区发展水平的重要标志,且已成为各国经济发展的新动力。采用东部地区的省级面板数据,实证检验了服务业对区域经济增长的影响。研究表明,东部地区快速发展的服务业有力地促进了经济的增长。     

中国省级区域经济增长及差距的经验研究

在考虑人力资本要素的基础上,将中固30个省份1990-2005年的经济增长分解为效率变化、技术进步和资本积累,分别考察了三者对经济增长的贡献,然后使用绝对收敛方程分析了它们的收敛效应.结果显示,1990-2005年中国30个省份的技术效率为0.8;经济增长的77%是由要素投入增加推动的,TFP对经济增长的贡献在23%左右;技术进步是推动TFP增长的重要因素,也是地区问经济差距扩大的主要原因.缩小地区之间经济增长的差距不仅需要要素积累,还需要增强落后区域的技术进步能力.     

New technologies and productivity growth in the euro area

This paper provides an overview of the available evidence on the importance of information and communication technologies (ICT) for developments in average labour productivity (ALP) growth in the euro area. The contribution of ICT to ALP growth is found to have increased both in terms of production and investment over the 1990s (up to 2001). However, there is no evidence of significant positive spillover effects from the use of ICT on ALP growth. This implies that there is no reason to believe that potential output growth in the euro area has increased significantly in recent years on account of new technologies. Comparing developments in the euro area and the United States, it appears, however, that ICT capital cannot account for much of the difference in ALP developments over the 1990s. This suggests that cyclical developments and, in particular, the structure of the economy are more important for explaining the difference in performance.First version received: March 2002/Final version received: May 2003We thank Bart van Ark, Neale Kennedy, Gerard Korteweg, Ad van Riet, Marcel Timmer, two anonymous referees and participants at the 17th Congress of the European Economic Association, Venice August 2002 for their comments. All errors and omissions remain ours, of course. We thank Erikos Velissaratos for his help in acquiring data on investment in ICT and Colin Webb for providing us with the OECD STAN database. This paper represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank, the European Commission or their staff.     

Hiding in Plain Sight: A Note on Public Goods,Information Technology,and Productivity

This research note advances a conjecture that may help to explain the “paradox” of productivity and information technology (IT). Conventional measures of the economic output of the IT sector may substantially understate the actual value of IT because software is a public good, which is largely unpriced. I provide a simple exploratory calculation that lends plausibility to this explanation. I hope that this conjecture may inspire research by those with greater expertise in the evolution of software.     

The Costs of Inflation Revisited

Neoclassical treatments of inflation understate the costs associated with inflation, even at very low levels. A comparative institutions perspective that recognizes the epistemological properties of prices and the institutional process by which inflation takes place, reveals the costs of inflation to be both larger and more widespread than standard treatments suggest. This paper makes use of insights from Austrian economics, public choice theory, and the new institutional economics to argue that inflation imposes costs by undermining the coordinative properties of the price system. Not only are there the direct costs of increased economic error, but actors also divert resources away from direct want-satisfaction into attempts to either prevent or cope with the increased degree of uncertainty inflation imposes. These resource costs are best understood from a comparative institutions perspective, as traditional measures of economic well-being, such as GDP, cannot distinguish between exchanges that directly satisfy wants, and exchanges that are attempts to correct or prevent utility-diminishing activities. The analogy between these coping costs and rent-seeking behavior is explored. In addition, inflation imposes costs by undermining the coordinative properties of markets and inducing actors to, on the margin, prefer to seek wealth or allocate resources through the political process.     

信息系统使用行为和绩效之间的关系研究

针对目前我国信息系统在企业应用水平低下的现状,本文通过文献梳理对于信息系统用户的使用行为以及个人绩效的相关研究进行了回顾与总结,从个体层面阐述了国外信息系统采纳后行为研究在理论发展及实证研究的现状,总结国内外的相关研究,将信息系统使用行为分为使用频率、使用路径及使用融合三种,同时对三种使用行为与绩效之间的关系进行了分析,其中使用路径和使用融合对个人绩效有显著影响,使用频率对使用路径有显著影响,使用路径对使用融合有显著影响,并采用云南省烟草公司的案例中的实证数据分析进行了验证。最后,总结了研究结果的实践意义及未来研究发展的方向,期望可以为国内现代企业提升员工信息系统使用水平及个人工作绩效提供参考。     

进口贸易与中国经济增长互动关系探析

进口贸易在国民经济增长中的作用尚未引起到人们的高度重视。近年来,随着国际经济环境的变化和中国经济的发展,人们开始重新审视进口贸易对经济增长的作用。进口贸易促进经济增长,最显著的传导机制是通过提高全要素生产率促进经济增长。目前中国需要调整贸易战略、重视进口贸易在经济增长中的作用,并优化进口贸易结构,在适度保护的基础上通过开展进口贸易促进经济增长。     

我国西部地区经济增长中的技术因素分析

利用1978—2010年我国西部地区12省市的数据,测算了我国西部地区的资本、劳动力和TFP对经济增长的贡献率。结果显示:当期我国西部地区的经济增长主要源于资本投入;但是,由于资本对经济增长的贡献太大,因此TFP呈相对平稳下降趋势,TFP对经济增长的作用还不是很明显。指出:若2010—2020年西部地区TFP对经济增长的贡献率为37.1%,则西部地区能实现以技术进步带来可持续增长。最后提出西部地区实现经济可持续增长的政策建议。