Randomized Response, Statistical Disclosure Control and Misclassificatio: a Review

This paper discusses analysis of categorical data which have been misclassified and where misclassification probabilities are known. Fields where this kind of misclassification occurs are randomized response, statistical disclosure control, and classification with known sensitivity and specificity. Estimates of true frequencies are given, and adjustments to the odds ratio are discussed. Moment estimates and maximum Likelihood estimates are compared and it is proved that they are the same in the interior of the parameter space. Since moment estimators are regularly outside the parameter space, special attention is paid to the possibility of boundary solutions. An example is given.     

建设工程实施阶段的工程质量DEA评价

在建立工程质量评价指标体系的基础上,构建了工程质量评价DEA评价模型,给出了工程质量评价模型的步骤及评价标准,并以某单位工程在施工阶段的12个分部工程为例,进行了建设项目的质量实证评价,对有效的分部工程进行排序,对非有效的分部工程针对不足的地方提出了改进措施。通过评价,可以总结出在管理过程中的经验与教训,以便管理者进行剖析与总结,从而有效地对工程质量进行控制。     

标准体系方法论中程序模块的理论和方法

本文对标准体系方法论中核心程序模块的理论和方法进行了深入的分析,研究建立了标准体系目标分析的纵横目标分析方法,建立了标准体系的三维目标空间,构建了结构化和概念化的标准对象系统,建立了目标关联的标准需求分析方法,定位了标准适用性分析的对象和判据项目,在标准体系结构设计方面引入了标准体系拓扑结构,丰富了标准体系结构设计的选择,给出了技术标准、管理标准、工作标准区分的要点,制定了标准体系表的编制方法,确定了标准体系研究报告和编制说明的编写方法等,明确了标准体系构建的成果形式。     

当代城市化机理模型研究的比较与融合

纵观我国城市化的研究,基础性的理论研究相对较少,建立的模型多以静态为主,缺乏动态演化特征,特别是定量的机理性数学模型和模拟并不多见,研究的方法也创新不足.首先从发展经济学和空间经济学两种经济学视角对城市化主要研究模型进行评述,其次从基于agent建模(ABM)的复杂科学途径对当代我国城市化研究的主要内容展开剖析,认为我国城市化研究需要方法的创新与融合,指出结合经济学研究成果和ABM动态化的优势,进行以新古典城市化理论为基础的"广义"和以新经济地理学为基础的"狭义"融合尝试,是城市化机制研究瓶颈的突破.按照"经济学演绎模型与推导一基于agent的计算实验一实证分析与计量检验一政策分析与评估"的研究思路是一个值得探索的方向.     

青岛滨海广场研究与分析

滨海广场是城市最具特色的"会客厅",从某种意义上说,体现了滨海城市的风貌和灵魂,展示了滨海城市生活模式和文化内涵。本文对青岛滨海广场进行实地考察研究,对广场使用现状进行评价,对滨海广场建设取得的成果给予肯定,同时剖析广场存在的问题,提出改造建议。     

Computer‐Aided Statistical Instruction—Multi‐Mediocre Techno‐Trash?

The very soul of statistics are data, but few students actually collect data as part of their statistical journey. The impediments to real data collection exercises are very real—they are logistically difficult to set up, expensive, and may not work because of extraneous events outside the control of the instructor. Computer‐aided laboratories are a way to bring many of the benefits of actual data collection to students at a fraction of the cost and can be easily controlled by the instructor. There are many computer‐aided modules available—indeed a search on Google gave over 1 million hits. Some modules are good but many are mediocre. What separates the gems from the trash?     

国有企业员工退出行为的博弈分析

建立了国有企业员工退出行为的过程模型,提出了员工退出行为的两个过程即员工心理体验过程和员工与企业的互动过程,并对互动过程进行了博弈分析,指出了现实中员工与经理人博弈的低效率均衡,提出了解决这种不合理均衡的对策建议。     

国外住房保障制度比较研究

分析了美国、英国、德国、日本、韩国、新加坡等国家城市中低收入者住房保障体系的主要特色。重点分析了美国从供需两方面进行补贴的保障模式、英国的混合产权补贴方式、日本的住房保障三大支柱,同时,还比较了德国、韩国和新加坡三国住房保障体系的差异。概括出这些国家城市中低收入者住房保障体系的主要特征和存在的矛盾,即从补贴卖方到补贴买方的转变,根据发展阶段确定需要补贴的卖方以及以需求补贴为主导的特色补贴模式。最后,对国外城市中低收入者住房保障体系进行了评价,指出了公房建设与国民经济发展、政府与民间团体以及政府与城市中低收入者之间存在的三大矛盾。     

A general method for addressing forecasting uncertainty in inventory models

In practice, inventory decisions depend heavily on demand forecasts, but the literature typically assumes that demand distributions are known. This means that estimates are substituted directly for the unknown parameters, leading to insufficient safety stocks, stock-outs, low service, and high costs. We propose a framework for addressing this estimation uncertainty that is applicable to any inventory model, demand distribution, and parameter estimator. The estimation errors are modeled and a predictive lead time demand distribution obtained, which is then substituted into the inventory model. We illustrate this framework for several different demand models. When the estimates are based on ten observations, the relative savings are typically between 10% and 30% for mean-stationary demand. However, the savings are larger when the estimates are based on fewer observations, when backorders are costlier, or when the lead time is longer. In the presence of a trend, the savings are between 50% and 80% for several scenarios.     

金融工具会计

金融工具会计的主要问题集中在确认和计量方面。金融资产的初始计量应为:将支付的对价作为取得金融资产的初始入账金额;金融资产的后续计量应为:企业发起但不是为交易而持有的贷款和应收款项按成本计量,持有至到期的投资按摊余成本计量,可供出售金融资产和交易性金融资产按资产负债表日的公允价值计量。确定金融资产公允价值的优先顺序为:公开活跃市场上该项资产的市价、参考市场上类似交易资产的价格、采用期权定价法或资本资产定价法。     

On Testing for the Nullity of Some Skewness Coefficients

Three tests for the skewness of an unknown distribution are derived for iid data. They are based on suitable normalization of estimators of some usual skewness coefficients. Their asymptotic null distributions are derived. The tests are next shown to be consistent and their power under some sequences of local alternatives is investigated. Their finite sample properties are also studied through a simulation experiment, and compared to those of the √ b ₂-test.     

Evaluating GARCH models

In this paper, a unified framework for testing the adequacy of an estimated GARCH model is presented. Parametric Lagrange multiplier (LM) or LM type tests of no ARCH in standardized errors, linearity, and parameter constancy are proposed. The asymptotic null distributions of the tests are standard, which makes application easy. Versions of the tests that are robust against nonnormal errors are provided. The finite sample properties of the test statistics are investigated by simulation. The robust tests prove superior to the nonrobust ones when the errors are nonnormal. They also compare favourably in terms of power with misspecification tests previously proposed in the literature.     

基于结构元理论的复Fuzzy数

在文献[2—6]的基础上,给出了基于结构元理论的复Fuzzy数,定义了两个复模糊数的距离、大小关系、上下界及四则运算等,并探讨了复Fuzzy数项数列的收敛性,给出了数列收敛的充要条件及收敛的唯一性、有界性、保号性等结论。     

Asymptotic theory for heterogeneous dynamic pseudo-panels

Dynamic pseudo-panel models with inter-cohort parameter heterogeneity are studied. The population is divided into cohorts and the cohort sample means are used as a heterogeneous panel. Least squares and instrumental variables estimators are considered. Multidimensional limits are analyzed as the cross-sectional and temporal dimensions of the data pass to infinity, allowing for both stationary and nonstationary cases. Monte-Carlo simulations on the finite-sample performance of the estimators in these two dimensions are conducted and these, in conjunction with the asymptotic results, are used to make recommendations for practical implementation of the techniques. An empirical illustration finds heterogeneity in consumption growth rates among Taiwanese birth cohorts.     

城市现代化的特征与路径

城市是经济活动开展的空间载体,大量的生产要素聚集于城市中以获得规模效应;由于聚集带来的知识溢出,城市成为创新和技术成熟的摇篮。为此,城市被认为是现代化和经济增长的引擎。从城市经济学的角度分析了当前我国城市在现代化道路上存在的问题,并结合国内外经济学理论和实证研究的重要结论,总结了城市现代化的主要特征,对我国城市现代化所应遵循的路径进行了探讨。     

形状记忆功能高分子材料的研究现状和进展

通过对形状记忆功能高分子材料制作和表征方法方面,以及国内外发展现状进行研究总结,得出形状记忆聚合物的发展趋势。     

火电厂烟气再循环MGGH改造项目中的换热器本体吊装方案

安徽马鞍山万能达有限公司#3、#4机组MGGH烟气再循环改造工程为东方电气集团东方锅炉股份有限公司EPC总承包项目。烟气冷却器模块和烟气再热器模块均为东方锅炉厂设计、制造。其中,单台炉烟气冷却器模块共42排,前6排材质为20G,后36排为ND钢,分四组,共24块,重283t。烟气再模块共36排,前24排材质为双面不锈钢(2205),后12排为ND钢,共15块,重204t。     

减小电网非线性负载谐波畸变率的方法

本文主要介绍在工业控制电网中由非线性负载所造成的谐波电流畸变问题所采用的4种技术,给出了相应的检测系统框图,做了电力系统电能质量监测系统测试的数据进行建模仿真实验,这种方法具有较高精度和较好的实时性,在电气化铁道供电系统中推荐使用。     

基于不同类型消费者的再制造策略研究

本文对一个垄断制造商的再制造策略进行了研究。首先根据消费者对于再制造产品的接受程度把消费者分为两类，然后根据不同类型消费者的特点，给出了在不同的价格策略下，再制造产品和新产品的需求函数。据此本文建立了制造商的最优决策模型，并分别给出了制造商的最优价格策略。最后通过数值分析对结果进行了进一步的验证。     

我国城市低碳建筑发展缓慢的原因分析

分析了低碳建筑的内涵,论述了低碳建筑与低碳城市的关系。认为我国城市低碳建筑所以发展缓慢,是相关法规不完善、相关政策缺乏可操作性、相关政策落实不到位、执行人员存在认知偏差等所致。基于此提出了推动我国城市低碳建筑发展的政策建议。