经理人长期激励方案与股东利益的一致性研究

基于EVA(经济增加值)设计长期激励契约和激励比率,引导经理适度举债经营和投资决策能使双方利益趋于一致问题而建立的3个命题进行的逻辑推理证明:(1)在新兴的中国资本市场,高管激励机制不要盲目搬用西方激励方法,长期激励方案具有引导经理准确应用融资优序理论并适度举债,既能激励经理更为努力工作,又能将经理利益与股东利益更紧密融合在一起;(2)合理确定长期激励比率和建立适当的奖励薪酬金额上下限模型,为具体设计激励方案提供理论依据;(3)长激励方案能引导经理的投资决策选择投资项目的条件与股东财富最大化一致.     

Payout Policy Relevance and Accounting‐based Valuation

DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006) (D&D) argue ‘payout policy is not irrelevant and investment is not the sole determinant of value, even in frictionless markets’. Consistent with this view, we argue that the concept of a perfect capital market in Miller and Modigliani (1961) (M&M) and Fama and Miller (1972) can be extended to allow for managerial moral hazard if managers are assumed not to participate in securities trading. An updated version of the M&M valuation model is presented and the possibility of managerial free cash flow (FCF) retention through operating expense manipulation and sub‐optimal investment policies is discussed. Our analysis supports D&D's argument that payout policy is relevant and indicates that value relevance of payout depends on the quality of earnings measurement and the optimality of investment policy. Following this, we develop a framework for analyzing valuation and informational roles of payout in accounting‐based valuation models and apply this framework to the Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1996) models. This analysis shows how these models permit payout valuation relevance due to managerial FCF retention but not payout informational relevance. Finally, we consider how the Feltham and Ohlson (1996) model can be extended to incorporate time variation in expected profitability of capital investment caused by time variation in managerial FCF retention activities and show that this explicitly affects payout value relevance. We conclude that the development of models where payout plays an explicit valuation role due to issues of moral hazard is an important direction for future research.     

Time to build,option value,and investment decisions

Investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially. For example, the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information. Traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project. This paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments. We determine the effects of time to build, opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision. For reasonable parameter values, we show how a simple NPV rule can lead to gross errors.     

SIGN TESTS FOR ACTUAL INVESTMENTS WITH LATTER PERIOD NET CASH OUTFLOWS

Easily calculated sign tests are presented for analyzing the net present value characteristics and the number of internal rates of return of two important practical cases of cash flow patterns with multiple sign changes. Using two tables which summarize the test procedures, it is possible for a decision maker to economically proceed from simple to more advanced procedures (as needed) when analyzing these cash flow patterns. Also considered is a deceptive feature of certain investment projects which have cash flows with multiple sign changes and a unique internal rate of return. A sign test is presented for ruling out this potential problem.     

Technological advances and the decision to invest

Technological advances impact a firm’s investment decision, as they affect the investment cost. They can also affect the profitability due to demand shocks. We study a firm’s optimal investment decision when technological advances occur as surprises and induce uncertain reductions in the investment cost and in earnings. Despite this complex setting we derive closed-form solutions for the investment option value and the investment threshold. When technological advances only impact the investment cost, we demonstrate significant contributions compared to existing research, which restricts the analysis by keeping the expected investment cost path constant. For example, we show that, albeit the investment threshold is constant, the option value is very sensitive in the expected impact of technological advances. Leaving the restrictive setting, we obtain more intuitive results, e.g. that more frequent technological advances increase the option value. When technological advances impact future earnings we find important long-term effects: the investment threshold increases, whereas the option value decreases. Finally, earnings volatility postpones investment, while uncertainty due to technological advances expedites investment.     

Optimal Sequential Investment When Capital is Not Readily Reversible

When investment opportunities arrive one at a time and are reviewed sequentially, a corporation's optimal policy differs from a standard net present value rule if the corporation exercises control over an industry state variable and control is costly. The first condition presupposes a degree of market power for the firm; the second occurs if corporate investment decisions are imperfectly reversible. To address the problem of optimal investment in this context, a firm's investment decisions are modeled as a Markov reward process. The causes of economic irreversibility are discussed and general propositions concerning the optimal investment policy are derived. These propositions are then applied to the optimization of an exploration program by an oligopolistic firm (a price leader). Under particular demand and distributional assumptions, solutions for the optimal decision rule and the value of the exploration program are obtained and their properties examined.     

A neural‐network‐based decision‐making model in the peer‐to‐peer lending market

This study proposes an investment recommendation model for peer‐to‐peer (P2P) lending. P2P lenders usually are inexpert, so helping them to make the best decision for their investments is vital. In this study, while we aim to compare the performance of different artificial neural network (ANN) models, we evaluate loans from two perspectives: risk and return. The net present value (NPV) is considered as the return variable. To the best of our knowledge, NPV has been used in few studies in the P2P lending context. Considering the advantages of using NPV, we aim to improve decision‐making models in this market by the use of NPV and the integration of supervised learning and optimization algorithms that can be considered as one of our contributions. In order to predict NPV, three ANN models are compared concerning mean square error, mean absolute error, and root‐mean‐square error to find the optimal ANN model. Furthermore, for the risk evaluation, the probability of default of loans is computed using logistic regression. Investors in the P2P lending market can share their assets between different loans, so the procedure of P2P investment is similar to portfolio optimization. In this context, we minimize the risk of a portfolio for a minimum acceptable level of return. To analyse the effectiveness of our proposed model, we compare our decision‐making algorithm with the output of a traditional model. The experimental results on a real‐world data set show that our model leads to a better investment concerning both risk and return.     

Technical Analysis as a Rational Tool of Decision Making for Professional Traders

The psychological background of technical analysis usage is investigated to further explain the popularity and common usage of technical analysis as an investment decision tool. Attitudes toward technical analysis of professional futures market traders and neophyte investors, represented by finance students, were examined. Technical analysis is one of the most popular methods supporting investment decisions and it is much more popular among future market traders than among neophyte investors. The concept of processing information was used to explain this phenomenon. Neophyte investors are more experiential and intuition-driven while using technical analysis models, while futures market traders are more rationally driven. Technical analysis methods help professional traders on futures markets, which are less transparent than regulated stock markets, to process information; those methods are perceived by them as rational, cognitive tools supporting their decision making.     

Equilibrium Models in Real Estate Research: A Survey

Equilibrium analysis is a valuable tool in real estate investment research. In this survey, I show how equilibrium models have been used to estimate the required risk premium for different classes of real estate, to explain real house prices, and to determine investment rental market adjustment and valuation (as well as to predict future rent, price, and value developments). Equilibrium analysis has also increased our understanding of differences in coupon or rental rates on loans or leases with and without various optionlike features. Because the work on leases has lagged that on loans or mortgages, application of the mortgage research methodology to leases is an especially fertile area for research.     

Bridging Sustainability and Finance: The Value Driver Adjustment Approach

Even though most large corporations view sustainability considerations and concerns as having the potential to affect their revenue and profits, and studies have shown that sustainability can affect stock returns, investors and corporate managers continue to struggle to incorporate such concerns into their financial decision‐making. As a consequence, the valuation effects of sustainability issues are not fully reflected in either the valuation of companies by investors or in capital investment decisions by corporate managers. The author argues that sustainability can be integrated into both of these kinds of financial decision‐making by linking it to business models, competitive positions, and value drivers using what the author calls a “value‐driver adjustment” (VDA) approach. The basic idea is simple: material sustainability issues affect business models and competitive positions, which in turn affect the company's value drivers—notably, sales, margins, and capital. The VDA approach explicitly considers these linkages by taking three steps: (1) identifying a company's material sustainability issues; (2) analyzing how these issues are expected to affect the company's business model and competitive position; and (3) quantifying the effects of such changes in business model and competitive position on the company's value drivers, including its cost of capital. In the first part of the article, the author provides an investor perspective that shows how sustainability can be integrated into investment decisions by asset managers. There he explains how and why ESG integration has so far failed to become mainstream, and what needs to be done to make it successful. The second part of this article takes the corporate perspective and shows how sustainability can be linked to value drivers using much the same ingredients as in asset management, but slightly different tools that can help corporate managers incorporate sustainability concerns into strategy and operations, including the finance function. And in closing, the author brings together corporate and investor perspectives while showing how sustainability programs can be used to make the relationship between companies and their shareholders both stronger and longer‐lasting.     

Organizational forms and investment decisions

This paper analyzes investment rules for various organizational forms that are distinguished by the characteristics of their residual claims. Different restrictions on residual claims lead to different decision rules. The analysis indicates that the investment decisions of open corporations, financial mutuals and non-profits can be modeled by the value maximization rule. However, the decisions of proprietorships, partnerships, and closed corporations cannot in general be modeled by the market value rule.     

Investment incentives,debt, and warrants

This paper models and characterizes investment incentive problems associated with debt financing. The decision problem of residual claimants is explicity formulated and their investment policies are characterized. The paper also analyzes the use of conversion features and warrants to control distortionary incentives. These claims reverse the convex shape of levered equity over the upper range of the firm's earnings, and this mitigates the incentive to take risk. It is shown that, under certain conditions, such claims can be constructed to restore net present value maximizing incentives and simultaneously meet the financing requirements of the firm.     

ESG Investing in Graham & Doddsville

The author describes how and why the world's best “business value investors” have long incorporated environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into their investment decision‐making. As the main source of value in companies has increasingly shifted from tangible to intangible assets, many followers of Graham & Dodd have delivered exceptional investment results by taking an “earnings‐power” approach to identifying high‐quality businesses—businesses with enduring competitive advantages that are sustained through significant ongoing investment in their core capabilities and, increasingly, their important non‐investor “stakeholders.” While the ESG framework may be relatively new, it can be thought of as providing a lens through which to view the age‐old issue of “quality.” Graham & Dodd's 1934 classic guide to investing, Security Analysis, and Phil Fisher's 1958 bestseller, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, both identify a number of areas of analysis that would today be characterized as ESG. Regardless of whether they use the labels “E,” “S,” and “G,” investors who make judgments about earnings power and sustainable competitive advantage are routinely incorporating ESG considerations into their decision‐making. The challenge of assessing a company's sustainable competitive advantage requires analysis based on concepts such as customer franchise value, as well as intangibles like brands and intellectual property. For corporate managers communicating ESG priorities, and for investors analyzing ESG issues, the key is to focus on their relevance to the business. In this sense, corporate reporting on sustainability issues should be viewed as analogous to and an integral part of financial reporting, with a management focus on materiality and relevance (while avoiding a “promotional” approach) that is critical to credibility.     

Antitakeover provisions and investment in mergers and acquisitions: A causal reevaluation

In this study, we are the first to reevaluate causally the effects of antitakeover provisions (ATPs) on the likelihood and quality of investment in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). We do so by exploiting instrumental variables to circumvent evidential endogeneity in ATPs. Our causal analysis is new to reveal that higher levels of ATPs are associated with lower propensity for investment in M&A and, after accounting for unobservable factors that affected the decision to invest in M&A, with investment that is more likely to be both value enhancing to shareholders and personally riskier to managers. Our findings support theory and evidence in other corporate contexts that gives weight to the possibility that ATPs curb risk related agency conflict. Our collective findings of a (positive) surprise also provide substantiation for known information about ATPs having value relevance for market perception of the quality of investment in M&A.     

R&D Investments with Competitive Interactions

In this article we develop a model to analyze patent-protected R&D investment projects when there is (imperfect) competition in the development and marketing of the resulting product. The competitive interactions that occur substantially complicate the solution of the problem since the decision maker has to take into account not only the factors that affect her/his own decisions, but also the factors that affect the decisions of the other investors. The real options framework utilized to deal with investments under uncertainty is extended to incorporate the game theoretic concepts required to deal with these interactions. Implementation of the model shows that competition in R&D, in general, not only increases production and reduces prices, but also shortens the time of developing the product and increases the probability of a successful development. These benefits to society are countered by increased total investment costs in R&D and lower aggregate value of the R&D investment projects.     

基于期权博弈的PPP项目特许权期决策模型

运用期权博弈方法,从无政府担保基本情形出发,构建 PPP 项目特许权期决策模型,考量政府参与风险分担对特许权期的影响。结果表明,收益波动率一定的情况下,特许权期随着政府最低收益担保期望价值的增加而减少;而在政府最低收益担保期望价值一定的情况下,特许权期随着收益波动率的增加而增加。鉴此,政府应根据项目的风险收益情况实施弹性特许权期制。     

Relevant Criterion Rates in Capital Budgeting*

This paper develops, using graphical analysis, a series of models relating immediate investment opportunities to various investment opportunity costs and the costs of financing. The block nature of much long-term finance is recognized in the analysis and the situations in which different concepts are relevant to the establishment of criterion rates, when capital rationing does not exist, are identified. The author recommends that, in the absence of capital rationing or strongly held expectations of increases in financing costs in the near future, in practice criterion rates he based on the weighted average cost of the marginal set of finance.     

Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown Challange

In response to the demand for a single, generally accepted real options methodology, this article proposes a four‐step process leading to a practical solution to most applications of real option analysis. The first step is familiar: calculate the standard net present value of the project assuming no managerial flexibility, which results in a value estimate (and a “branch” of a decision tree) for each year of the project's life. The second step estimates the volatility of the value of the project and produces a value tree designed to capture the main sources of uncertainty. Note that the authors focus on the uncertainty about overall project value, which is driven by uncertainty in revenue growth, operating margins, operating leverage, input costs, and technology. The key point here is that, in contrast to many real options approaches, none of these variables taken alone is assumed to be a reliable surrogate for the uncertainty of the project itself. For example, in assessing the option value of a proven oil reserve, the relevant measure of volatility is the volatility not of oil prices, but of the value of the operating entity—that is, the project value without leverage. The third step attempts to capture managerial flexibility using a decision “tree” that illustrates the decisions to be made, their possible outcomes, and their corresponding probabilities. The article illustrate various kinds of applications, including a phased investment in a chemical plant (which is treated as a compound option) and an investment in a peak‐load power plant (a switching option with changing variance, which precludes the use of constant risk‐neutral probabilities as in standard decision tree analysis). The fourth and final step uses a “no‐arbitrage” approach to form a replicating portfolio with the same payouts as the real option. For most corporate investment projects, it is impossible to locate a “twin security” that trades in the market. In the absence of such a security, the conventional NPV of a project (again, without flexibility) is the best candidate for a perfectly correlated underlying asset because it represents management's best estimate of value based on the expected cash flows of the project.     

The Cost of Capital and the Relevance of Non-diversifiable Risk

The conventional solutions to the corporate investment decision have been seriously challenged by recent developments in portfolio theory. In this paper, the author argues that, assuming the security market is composed of efficient diversifiers, there is no need, in the evaluation of investment projects, to adjust the time value of money to take account of risk. He concludes that the appropriate cut-off rate for any investment is equal to the yield on a 'risk-free' security such as undated or long-dated Government Stock.