ECONOMETRIC APPROACHES TO EMPIRICAL MODELS OF EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION

Abstract. This paper identifies four principal econometric approaches to the estimation and testing of asset market models of exchange rate determination: the traditional, static reduced-form approach; the error correction and co-integration, dynamic reduced-form approaches; the simultaneous equations approach; and large scale, multi-equation macroeconometric simulation models. Each of these econometric approaches is evaluated with respect to its theoretical validity and the comparative properties of the empirical results obtained. This leads to the conclusion that although there may be little to choose between the different theoretical exchange rate models, there may be grounds for favouring a multi-equation, simultaneous estimation procedure for this class of models.     

EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONES: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability. We discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models. In an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the Krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes, this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models, such as imperfect credibility, intra‐marginal interventions and sticky price models. It was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate, its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential, and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than U shaped. This implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities, ‘honeymoon effect’, ‘smooth pasting’ and marginal interventions has vanished. Exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra‐marginal interventions, with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band.     

A THEORETICAL APPROACH TO STERILIZED FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION

In this paper, we survey prominent theories that have shaped the literature on sterilized foreign exchange interventions. We identify three main strands of literature: (1) that which deems interventions futile; (2) that which requires some market friction (i.e. limited arbitrage) in order for interventions to be effective; and (3) that which advocates the use of interventions as long as they convey signals on the stance of future monetary policy. We contribute to the literature in three important ways. First, by reviewing new theoretical models that have surfaced within the last decade. Second, by further penetrating into the theory of interventions in order to analyze the key features that make each model distinct. And third, by only focusing on sterilized operations, which allows us to sidestep the effects induced by changes in the stock of money supply. In addition, the models that we present comprise both a macro and microstructure approach so as to provide a comprehensive view of the theory behind exchange rate intervention.     

WORDS, DEEDS AND OUTCOMES: A SURVEY ON THE GROWTH EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

Abstract.  Recent studies on the growth effects of exchange rate regimes offer a wide range of different, sometimes contradictory results. In this paper, we systematically compare three prominent contributions in this field. Using a common data set, a common specification and common estimation methods, we argue that the contradictory findings can be explained by the fact that these studies use regime classifications which reflect fundamentally different aspects of exchange rate policy.     

POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE,SAVING, CAPITAL FLOWS AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract This paper surveys the existing literature on the effects of population age structure on saving, capital flows and the real exchange rate. We build on previous surveys of age structure and saving behaviour by including extensive discussion of international linkages, specifically the impact on capital flows and real exchange rates. We also point to unresolved issues that need to be addressed given that population aging has serious policy implications in the developed economies these days.     

INTEREST RATE PASS‐THROUGH: A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE LITERATURE

The interest rate pass‐through describes how changes in a reference rate (the monetary policy, money market or T‐bill rate) transmit to bank lending rates. We review the empirical literature on the interest rate pass‐through and systematize it by means of meta‐analysis and meta‐regressions. Using the pass‐through to corporate lending rates as the baseline, we find systematically lower estimated pass‐through coefficients in studies that focus on the pass‐through to consumer lending rates and rates on long‐term loans. Also studies estimating the pass‐through by averaging all lending rates into one category report a lower pass‐through. Importantly, the interest rate pass‐through is significantly influenced by the country's macro‐financial environment. In economies with deepening stock markets, the estimated pass‐through strengthens significantly. Interestingly, after the global financial crisis, the pass‐through weakened across the board, including because of growing trade openness and supply chain financing, rising volatility and stock market turnovers, as well as declining central bank independence. Inflation targeting frameworks, if in place, helped diminish this pass‐through weakening.     

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONETARY AND MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

The emergence of macroprudential policies, implemented by central banks as a means of promoting financial stability, has raised many questions regarding the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. Given the limited number of studies available, this paper sheds light on this issue by providing a critical and systematic review of the literature. To this end, we divide the theoretical and empirical studies into two broad channels of borrowers – consisting of the cost of funds and the collateral constraint – and financial intermediaries – consisting of risk‐taking and payment systems. In spite of the existing ambiguity surrounding coordination issues between monetary and macroprudential policies, it is argued that monetary policy alone is not sufficient to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. Hence, macroprudential policies are needed to supplement monetary. In addition, we find that the role of the exchange rate is critical in the implementation of monetary and macroprudential policies in emerging markets, while volatile capital flows pose another challenge. In so far as how the arrangement of monetary and macroprudential policies varies across countries, key theoretical and policy implications have been identified.