我国碳排放权交易市场构建条件分析

文章从我国经济可持续发展、国际减排压力、科学减排模式和全面参与减排等方面分析了我国建立碳排放权交易市场的必要性;又从政法环境、技术条件和实际经验三方面探讨了我国碳排放权交易市场建立的可行性;最后通过构建模型分析了碳排放权交易市场条件下我国企业成本效益情况;认为我国已具备建立碳排放权交易市场的条件,通过市场机制调节可以更好地履行企业和国家的减排责任。     

论全球温室气体减排责任的公正分担——基于罗尔斯正义论的视角

对公正减排进行界定并达成共识对于推动全球温室气体减排谈判来说至关重要。作者认为,罗尔斯的正义论可以应用到国际领域中来,其正义原则的理论进路也使得在气候变化领域建立一种超越国家利益的伦理共识成为可能。根据罗尔斯的正义论,可以推导出如下减排原则:一是人均平等排放原则,即无论所属国国籍、种族、肤色以及经济水平,每个人均拥有通过一定碳排放来提高生活水平的平等权利和通过限制碳排放来保护全球环境的平等义务;二是差别原则,即在保证人类社会持续应对气候变化的能力这一条件下,允许不平等的减排安排,只要它有利于最少受惠者的最大利益。这两个原则分别界定了减排的标准与实现方式,旨在使高排放国家与低排放国家在历史累计排放和当前排放方面最终趋于人均一致。落实这一理念的适当减排方案应基于工业化进程的动态二个趋同法。     

论全球温室气体减排责任的公正分担——基于罗尔斯正义论的视角北大核心CSSCISSCI

对公正减排进行界定并达成共识对于推动全球温室气体减排谈判来说至关重要。作者认为,罗尔斯的正义论可以应用到国际领域中来,其正义原则的理论进路也使得在气候变化领域建立一种超越国家利益的伦理共识成为可能。根据罗尔斯的正义论,可以推导出如下减排原则:一是人均平等排放原则,即无论所属国国籍、种族、肤色以及经济水平,每个人均拥有通过一定碳排放来提高生活水平的平等权利和通过限制碳排放来保护全球环境的平等义务;二是差别原则,即在保证人类社会持续应对气候变化的能力这一条件下,允许不平等的减排安排,只要它有利于最少受惠者的最大利益。这两个原则分别界定了减排的标准与实现方式,旨在使高排放国家与低排放国家在历史累计排放和当前排放方面最终趋于人均一致。落实这一理念的适当减排方案应基于工业化进程的动态二个趋同法。     

全球碳排放责任划分原则研究述评

全球气候谈判中各国的分歧焦点之一在于对国家碳排放责任的界定，建立公平有效可行的碳排放责任划分原则关系着各国的利益，并深刻影响着各国减排政策。目前由IPCC等机构所定义的“生产者”碳排放责任划分原则经过长期理论和实践发展已成为广为接受的责任划分原则，然而该原则的弊端也逐渐显现。基于完善该原则的考虑，“消费者原则”、“收益原则”及“共担责任原则”等原则相继被提出。综合比较各责任原则及其实证方法，有利于中国寻求更加公平的碳排放划分原则并为合理界定中国的碳减排责任提供理论依据。     

正义原则与国际合作应对气候变化的激励机制——从法哲学与经济学的交叉视角

人类生产与生活过程不可避免地排放大量温室气体,逐年累积的结果导致改变大气成分,由此引起全球气候向着不利于人类可持续生存与发展的方向转化。温室气体破坏了人类社会安排,并且各国所受的冲击程度不尽相同。从经济学的角度判断,由于有些国家因气候变化所得的收益大于调整成本,有些国家所得收益不足以抵消支付的调整成本,因此,要求国际合作减排的赢家向输家支付边际成本,一定程度上可以起到激励作用,推动各国缩小分歧、共担责任。积极参与国际合作减排是我国应尽的国际义务,但是我国要与历史上的排放大国展开有理有利的谈判,实现减排负担的公平分配是我国当前应对全球气候变化权利义务失衡现象的务实对策。     

中国碳交易试点省市碳排放权的初始分配研究——基于 Boltzmann 分布

本文构建了一个基于Boltzmann分布的碳排放权初始分配模型,利用相关研究数据估计了总量减排指标下,中国6个碳交易试点省市2000-2010年的碳排放权初始分配问题.实证研究表明：Boltzmann分布是碳排放权在6省市之间的“最概然分布”.目前,碳排放权初始分配后,6省市之间暂时不会进行碳排放权交易.如果未来更多的省市参与碳交易,那么该模型下上述情况将会发生变化.实证结果表明了该方法的公平性与可行性.     

高排放强度省区2020年碳强度目标情景分析——以甘肃省为例

本文基于国家碳排放强度降低的目标需求,对高排放强度省区2010-2020碳排放情景进行了分析。选取甘肃省为研究案例,分析了2005-2010年碳排放的基本状况和碳排放强度降低原因,根据不同的经济发展速度、能源强度和减排目标设定了6种不同的2010—2020年碳排放情景,并就2020年40%～45%减排目标与北京、上海、宁夏、内蒙古、山西、全国平均水平进行了比较,结果表明:在2020年实现碳排放强度降低40%～45%目标下的6种发展情景中,2020年,甘肃省人均碳排放量为11.26tCO2～14.73 tCO2/人;能源强度为1.383吨标煤/万元～1.529吨标煤/万元,相对2005年降低32.28%～38.76%。     

碳排放权交易会计确认问题的思考

气候变化是人类面临的公共问题,为此,各国家都开始实行节能减排政策。国家间的合作使碳排放权具有了商品的性质,使碳排放权交易成为可能,国际碳排放权交易市场由此产生。然而,国内外对碳排放权交易的会计确认问题存在诸多争议。文章从创新的角度对碳排放权交易的会计确认问题提出自己的见解,希望对深入研究碳排放权交易会计确认计量问题有所启示。     

中国在当前国际碳排放权交易中最优出口规模研究

国际碳排放权交易是在应对全球气候变化过程中提出的以成本最小化方式实现污染排放控制的环境政策机制。目前,中国主要通过清洁发展机制(CDM)来参与国际碳交易,并出口相应的核证减排量。CDM项目在我国发展迅速,出口的核证减排量呈显著上升态势,然而本文认为,当前CDM项目的开发并不是越多越好。因为碳减排的空间是有限的,考虑未来减排压力和减排成本的增加,当前碳排放权的出口量存在最优规模问题。本文通过建立两阶段最优化模型,对这一问题进行了详细讨论。在此基础上结合当前国际碳交易现状,指出了中国参与其中遭遇的问题与相应启示。     

上海市行业碳排放权分配及其减排成本最小化方案研究

文章基于ZSG-DEA模型，应用上海市各行业实际数据，遵循公平和效率原则讨论了在给定2025年上海碳排放总量的情况下，各行业碳排放权分配方案，并使用行业间碳减排成本最小化决策模型对既定减排目标下的碳排放成本进行优化处理。文章重点关注了具有上海特色的九大战略性新兴产业，从工业中将战略性新兴产业与传统工业区分开来进行分析，并通过ZSG-DEA的多次迭代，将初始情况下给建筑业、交通运输、仓储和邮政业以及批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业多分配的碳排放配额重新分配给碳排放效率较高的其他行业，以提高碳排放权的利用效率，且研究结果基本符合预期。     

Carbon emissions and income inequality

We find that the distribution of income matters to aggregatecarbon dioxide emissions and hence global warming. Higher inequality,both between and within countries is associated with lower carbonemissions at given average incomes. We also confirm that economicgrowth generally comes with higher emissions. Thus our resultssuggest that trade-offs exist between climate control (on theone hand) and both social equity and economic growth (on theother). However, economic growth improves the trade off withequity, and lower inequality improves the trade off with growth.By combining growth with equity, more pro-poor growth processesyield better longer-term trajectories of carbon emissions.     

低碳经济发展的全球治理与合作研究

低碳经济发展的全球治理与合作体系主要由国际谈判与决策机制(政府间治理框架)、国际碳排放权交易体系(市场经济体系新规范)、国际低碳技术扩散系统(基于知识产权保护的低碳创新技术应用)等三方面构成,其中,政府间治理框架主体的多样性和诉求的复杂性决定了决策过程的曲折性。在市场经济体系新规范中,发达国家利用现行国际经济、贸易、金融机制的优势话语权控制甚至垄断主要交易市场及交易品种,碳排放作为又一项重要的国际资源,发展中国家正逐渐丧失对资源开发、市场定价、交易过程的控制权,并面临资源价值控制权与主导权的再一次弱化。在国际低碳治理体系技术体系中,基于全球治理共识下的低碳技术在全球范围内的技术扩散、技术转移与技术溢出效应逐渐显现,但技术权力决定的利益诉求对低碳技术流动的制约作用也同时凸显。     

How Will China Move towards Becoming a Low Carbon Economy？

China is facing increasing pressure from the international community to curb its greenhouse emissions. The next 15-20 years are important for China＇s social and economic development, but this is also a key period for controlling global greenhouse gas emissions. In considering the development path of China＇s economy, policy-makers are confronted by the issue of global climate change. Reducing carbon emissioms is now a worldwide task. For China, opportunities and challenges coexist. Post-Kyoto climate regime must provide incentives for China＇s transition to becoming a low carbon economy based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.     

Estimation of China＇s Embodied CO2 Emissions during 2000-2009

The problem of CO₂ embodied in international trade has attracted increasing attention in China. To analyze this issue, the present paper directly calculates emission factors for 15 industries in 2002, 2005 and 2007. We then examine a consumption‐based system and a single‐region input–output model to estimate China's embodied emissions during 2000–2009. Our results show that, when a consumption‐based system is adopted, China's emissions are lower than those reported by some international organizations. The rapid growth in China's exports is a key determinant of China's rising total emissions. All countries should strengthen their cooperation in improving their current greenhouse gas inventories. Furthermore, China needs to encourage trade in low‐carbon products and technology.     

日本碳交易的机制与成效

随着国际社会对气候问题重视的不断加深,二氧化碳排放权交易日益受到各国的关注,碳交易在全球迅速发展。日本碳交易的发展存在着诸多的困难与不确定性,但是,日本凭借自身的外交、节能减排技术等有利条件,不仅在积极推动国际碳交易发展中加强了国际关系,而且,通过不断完善碳交易机制,创建碳交易平台,促进国内外的碳交易制度的完善,取得了一定的环境和经济效益。     

Regional allocation of carbon dioxide abatement in China

This paper aims to identify which provinces will be allocated more (less) of a carbon dioxide reduction burden within China's pledge to reduce its carbon intensity at the Copenhagen conference. Using an extended Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model incorporating an undesirable output, the CO₂ reduction potential and marginal abatement costs are estimated for 29 provinces over the period 1995–2007. The CO₂ Abatement Capacity Index (ACI) is constructed based on weighted equity and efficiency indexes. We find that there exists a large gap in potential reduction capability and marginal abatement cost among the eastern, middle and western regions. The eastern region has the least inefficient emission and the highest marginal abatement cost, while the western region has the largest potential reduction capability and the lowest marginal cost faced in reducing CO₂ emissions. The difference in potential CO₂ abatement among the provinces results from different industry structures, energy compositions and degrees of the openness of trade. The ACI ranking and the final allocation among provinces depend on the policy-makers' preferences regarding equity and efficiency.     

基于MRIO模型的中国对外贸易隐含碳及排放责任研究

国际贸易中的隐含碳对全球碳排放责任的界定和气候政策的制定有重要的影响。由于生产技术差异对国际贸易模式有很大影响,在经济全球化背景下,对外贸易隐含碳的测算需要考虑贸易伙伴生产技术水平和能源结构之间的差异。本文建立多区域投入产出模型测算中国对外贸易隐含碳并比较其生产和消费排放责任后发现,中国对外贸易隐含碳净出口占中国碳排放的11.77%～19.93%,中国的生产碳排放从1995年的29.2亿吨增加到2009年的70.8亿吨,而消费碳排放在1995年和2009年分别只有24.7亿吨和61.8亿吨。文章进而采用结构分解分析和碳排放贸易条件解释这一现象,并将其具体到主要贸易伙伴,从而证明目前的国际碳排放核算体系引起了消费和全球生产系统的分离。经过贸易调整后的基于消费的碳排放核算体系不仅可为减排责任的分担提供一个新途径,而且可为利用贸易政策实现减排提供新的思路。     

刍议碳排放交易市场的构成及发展展望

碳交易市场的建设和完善是国际气候问题解决方案的基础和市场保障。本文以国际碳交易市场的发展为分析对象,依次分析了这个特殊的无形产品市场的供给方、需求方、交易商品、交易货币、市场的法律依据和运行机制以及最新发展动态等内容,并对与国际碳交易市场相关的清洁发展机制实施有效性、自发市场问题以及总量限额必要性问题进行了分析;最后,本文也针对目前中国碳交易市场最新发展状况提出相关政策建议,指出当务之急要解决的三个问题是碳汇产品定价方式、各级碳交易市场的兼容性以及试点企业的选择问题。     

碳排放量和能源利用效率不公平及其原因探析——基于中国37个规模以上工业行业数据研究

＂高排放（高消耗）低产出＂是社会公平正义在经济学领域出现偏颇的映照。文章引入福利经济学领域洛伦茨曲线和基尼系数,发现我国行业碳排放量与能源利用效率差距很大,基尼系数分别为0.59、0.49;并利用分位数回归探索行业碳排放行为存在不公平的关键因素在于要素禀赋结构不合理,行业投资拉动型增长方式是碳排放行为不公平的根源;进一步测算行业碳排放量存在拐点,当且仅当单位能耗低于1.6-1.7万吨标准煤/亿元;1/3左右的行业能源效率需进一步改进,主要集中在能源采选业、以能源加工为主的冶炼业和以能源使用或转变为主的发电、制水、制气和化工等重工业领域。最后提出促进行业能源利用效率提高,实现能源分配公平的政策建议。     

The U.S. proposed carbon tariffs, WTO scrutiny and China’s responses

With governments from around the world trying to hammer out a post-2012 climate change agreement, no one would disagree that a U.S. commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions is essential to such a global pact. However, despite U.S. president Obama’s announcement to push for a commitment to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2020, in reality it is questionable whether U.S. Congress will agree to specific emissions cuts, although they are not ambitious at all from the perspectives of both the EU and developing countries, without the imposition of carbon tariffs on Chinese products to the U.S. market, even given China’s own announcement to voluntarily seek to reduce its carbon intensity by 40–45% over the same period. This dilemma is partly attributed to flaws in current international climate negotiations, which have been focused on commitments on the two targeted dates of 2020 and 2050. However, if the international climate change negotiations continue on their current course without extending the commitment period to 2030, which would really open the possibility for the U.S. and China to make the commitments that each wants from the other, the inclusion of border carbon adjustment measures seems essential to secure passage of any U.S. legislation capping its own greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the joint WTO-UNEP report indicates that border carbon adjustment measures might be allowed under the existing WTO rules, depending on their specific design features and the specific conditions for implementing them. Against this background, this paper argues that, on the U.S. side, there is a need to minimize the potential conflicts with WTO provisions in designing such border carbon adjustment measures. The U.S. also needs to explore, with its trading partners, ccooperative sectoral approaches to advancing low-carbon technologies and/or concerted mitigation efforts in a given sector at the international level. Moreover, to increase the prospects for a successful WTO defence of the Waxman-Markey type of border adjustment provision, there should be: 1) a period of good faith efforts to reach agreements among the countries concerned before imposing such trade measures; 2) consideration of alternatives to trade provisions that could reasonably be expected to fulfill the same function but are not inconsistent or less inconsistent with the relevant WTO provisions; and 3) trade provisions that should allow importers to submit equivalent emission reduction units that are recognized by international treaties to cover the carbon contents of imported products. Meanwhile, being targeted by such border carbon adjustment measures, China needs to, at the right time, indicate a serious commitment to address climate change issues to challenge the legitimacy of the U.S. imposing carbon tariffs by signaling well ahead that it will take on binding absolute emission caps around the year 2030, and needs the three transitional periods of increasing climate obligations before taking on absolute emissions caps. This paper argues that there is a clear need within a climate regime to define comparable efforts towards climate mitigation and adaptation to discipline the use of unilateral trade measures at the international level. As exemplified by export tariffs that China applied on its own during 2006–08, the paper shows that defining the comparability of climate efforts can be to China’s advantage. Furthermore, given the fact that, in volume terms, energy-intensive manufacturing in China values 7 to 8 times that of India, and thus carbon tariffs have a greater impact on China than on India, the paper questions whether China should hold the same stance on this issue as India as it does now, although the two largest developing countries should continue to take a common position on other key issues in international climate change negotiations.