Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

This commentary responds to some of the issues raised in Zia Sardar's paper “Welcome to Postnormal Times” noting and attempting to explain points of difference and similarity. From Sardar's invocation of the 3C's of complexity, chaos and contradiction emerges the idea that our postnormal times might be likened to the strange times following the Great Plague that gave rise to the Alliterative Revival. Speculating further, it is questioned whether, in such strange times, utopian futures studies substitute for prayer.     

非常时期见精神——行业抗非典实录

今春以来,一场突如其来的非典疫情席卷我国,横 行肆虐,严重威胁每一个人的身体健康和生命安全,也 打乱了我们正常的工作和生活秩序。在严峻的考验面 前,注册会计师行业、注册资产评估师行业的各级协会、 执业机构和广大从业人员,积极响应党和国家全民防治 非典的号召,与全国人民一道,同心协力,共抗非典,涌 现了许多感人事迹,充分体现了行业的团队精神和凝聚 力,展示了全行业的社会责任意识和奉献精神。 行业协会—关注行业 关爱会员 奉献社会 四月下旬,我国部分地区发生非典疫情后,根据中 央的部署…     

金融业迎接服务时代

服务已经成为当今各行业最为热门的概念之一。作为最典型的服务业之一,金融业的服务可以划分为两个层次:第一个层次的服务对应着传统制造业的产品,即金融机构的各种主营业务,例如存款、贷款、转账汇款、有价证券买卖、财产保险、信托等,以及在此基础上进行一定深加工而形成的更为复杂的组合产品,例如综合理财计划、银行卡业务等,很多情况下我们已经开始直乎其为金融产品;第二个层次的服务则对应着传统制造业的售前、售中、售后服务,虽然和第一个层次相比这个层次的服务处于从属地位,但同样重要,其中包括围绕着金融产品展开的各种信息咨询、…     

Uncertain times and the insider perspective

This paper examines insiders' informational privilege by studying the nexus between aggregated self-reported insider trades and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU). We demonstrate that firm insiders act in response to the first signs of uncertainty as it appears in the media, and high-ranked managers, such as CEOs and CFOs, react more promptly than other insiders. Our findings further support the idea that insiders' indirect informational advantages allow them to interpret the significance of public information for cash flows more accurately in their own companies. Our study is the first to examine insiders' behavior using pure public information; it is also the first to exclude the influence of private information completely. We also consider various measures of EPU, including global and categorical indices representing economic, political uncertainty, while taking the financial crisis period into account.     

Postnormal times revisited

Postnormal times (PNT) have been characterised by complexity, chaos and contradictions. But PNT theory has come under criticism for (allegedly) suggesting that ‘the world has entered an Omega phase’, using Alliterative Logic, and being western in nature. This paper answers some of the critics of PNT, provides further evidence of postnormal phenomenon, and examines the current trends that are taking us towards a postnormal ‘extended present’. Finally, it explores what PNT implies for futures studies and what it means to ‘be postnormal’.     

做无愧于时代的主流媒体

非常荣幸《第一财经日报》能够成为交通银行首届交银经济学家论坛的合作媒体。首届交银经济学家论坛是由交通银行创设的、良好沟通的高层次平台。聆听了一天的论坛，我们对于中国的货币政策、流动性、资产价格、国际收支与人民币汇率以及商业银行战略转型这些当今中国非常重要的金融业的热点问题都有了非常丰富的收获。20位演讲嘉宾展示了他们扎实的学术功底和对现实问题的深刻关注。     

商业汇票业务进入电子化时代

2009年10月28日,由中国人民银行（以下简称＂人民银行＂）批准建立的电子商业汇票系统（Electronic Commercial Draft System,ECDS）正式上线运行,这是继大额实时支付系统、小额批量支付系统、全国支票影像交换系统、境内外币支付系统之后．人民银行建设运行的又一个重要跨行支付清算系统。     

Leading in times of trauma

An employee is diagnosed with cancer or loses a family member unexpectedly. An earthquake destroys an entire section of a city, leaving hundreds dead, injured, or homeless. At time like these, managerial handbooks fail us. After all, leaders can't eliminate personal suffering, nor can they ask employees who are dealing with these crises to check their emotions at the door. But compassionate leadership can facilitate personal as well as organizational healing. Based on research the authors have conducted at the University of Michigan and the University of British Columbia's CompassionLab, this article describes what leaders can do to foster organizational compassion in times of trauma. They recount real-world examples, including a story of personal tragedy at Newsweek, natural disasters that affected Macy's and Malden Mills, and the events of September 11, 2001. During times of collective pain and confusion, compassionate leaders take some form of public action, however small, that is intended to ease people's pain and inspire others to act. By openly demonstrating their own humanity, executives can unleash a compassionate response throughout the whole company, increasing bonds among employees and attachments to the organization. The authors say compassionate leaders uniformly provide two things: a "context for meaning"--creating an environment in which people can freely express and discuss how they feel--and a "context for action"--creating an environment in which those who experience or witness pain can find ways to alleviate their own and others' suffering. A leader's competence in demonstrating and fostering compassion is vital, the authors conclude, to nourishing the very humanity that can make people--and organizations--great.     

Postformal priorities for postnormal times: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

This essay is a postformal rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar's Welcome to Postnormal Times. I have no quarrel with Sardar's conclusion that these times are postnormal, nor do I disagree with many of his observations, but our standpoints regarding implications are somewhat contradictory. Paradoxically, rather than jump into an old paradigm form of debate with Sardar's interpretations of postnormalcy, this rejoinder is a playful postformal response. I celebrate our complementary views as expressions of the complex truths of multiperspectivality. First I question the meaning of normal and postnormal in the context of such notions as “the pathology of normalcy.” Secondly I begin to explore the postnormal circumstances from a postformal perspective. This involves discussion of notions of progress, development, evolution and co-evolution from different points of view as an opener to coming to terms with complexity. I then explore how concepts such as complexity and paradox can be understood as paths to wisdom; how active imagination can be engaged in the service of life; and how engaged imagination can unfold new normative narratives of alternative futures. Such imaginaries of hope are vital for the wellbeing of young people. The essay closes with a call to embrace the richness of complexity and play with—rather than fear—the paradox of planetary pluralism.     

Lookback options and diffusion hitting times: A spectral expansion approach

Lookback options have payoffs dependent on the maximum and/or minimum of the underlying price attained during the options lifetime. Based on the relationship between diffusion maximum and minimum and hitting times and the spectral decomposition of diffusion hitting times, this paper gives an analytical characterization of lookback option prices in terms of spectral expansions. In particular, analytical solutions for lookback options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) diffusion are obtained.Received: 1 October 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J35, 60J60, 60G70JEL Classification: G13The author thanks Phelim Boyle for bringing the problem of pricing lookback options under the CEV process to his attention and for useful discussions and Viatcheslav Gorovoi for computational assistance. This research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants DMI-0200429 and DMS-0223354.     

后金融危机时代的外汇理财走向

全球金融危机对我国商业银行影响最直接、反应最明显的是外汇业务,尤其以商业银行的直接境外投资业务和代客外汇理财业务为甚.当前,金融危机的迷雾还未完全散去,购买银行外汇理财产品也许是零收益或负收益.目前形势下如何投资?个人外汇投资者是否需要调整投资策略?手中的外币资产该怎么处理?这些问题让广大持有外汇的中小投资者感到困惑和无所适从.其实不必过分恐慌和担忧,只要方法得当,同样可以通过外汇理财积累财富.     

虚拟化时代来临

由于新业务不断涌现,数据中心虚拟化应运而生。虚拟化和多核技术使得企业可以在现有机房放入更多服务器和存储设备。此外,目前数据中心内部大量的CPU、服务器、存储和网络设备也对机房的电力和制冷管理提出了新的挑战,能源的压力使得数据中心的能源消耗备受关注。     

Welcome to postnormal times

All that was ‘normal’ has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterised by three c's: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks to individuals, society and the planet. Postnormal times demands, this paper argues, that we abandon the ideas of ‘control and management’, and rethink the cherished notions of progress, modernisation and efficiency. The way forward must be based on virtues of humility, modesty and accountability, the indispensible requirement of living with uncertainty, complexity and ignorance. We will have to imagine ourselves out of postnormal times and into a new age of normalcy—with an ethical compass and a broad spectrum of imaginations from the rich diversity of human cultures.     

An empirical assessment of the Feltham-Ohlson models considering the sign of abnormal earnings

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the Feltham-Ohlson models, distinguishing between firms with positive and negative abnormal earnings. Abnormal earnings persistence and conservatism parameters differ for these two groups; this implies different earnings prediction models and valuation functions for both profit-making and loss-making firms. The analysis refers to the period 1991-1999 and uses a sample of Spanish firms quoted on the Madrid S.E. The results suggest that our contextual approach is more useful than the non-contextual one to predict future abnormal earnings and explain current prices. Although the Ohlson (1995) model is accurate in forecasting future abnormal earnings and stock prices, the results improve when firms with negative abnormal earnings are valued using a temporary model and firms with positive abnormal earnings using a more permanent one. The Feltham and Ohlson (1995) model generates the lowest forecast errors in the prediction of positive abnormal earnings, but it produces the least accurate results in forecasting prices.