适度宽松货币政策下的商业银行信贷政策取向

本文介绍了货币政策和信贷政策的概念,以及相互间的关系。对我国实行适度宽松货币政策的背景以及实施后所取得的实际效果进行了分析;而后对商业银行在适度宽松货币政策下如何开展信贷业务提出意见,即商业银行的信贷政策应符合国家经济政策和产业政策的要求,在支持重点项目建设和区域经济发展的同时,兼顾中小企业的资金需要,坚持"绿色信贷",优先支持节能减排项目,以此促进国民经济又好有又快的发展。     

信贷结构优化问题研究——基于呼伦贝尔市个案实证分析

本文结合呼伦贝尔市的实际情况,对经济运行中信贷结构的特点和问题进行了总结并提出建议。人民银行分支行作为贯彻和落实货币政策的具体执行者,找准贯彻执行适度宽松货币政策的立足点至关重要。     

对经济金融状况的后续估计及若干宏观政策的调整

在当前实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策的背景下,本文对当前经济和金融形势进行了全面分析,并对后续若干宏观政策可能调整情况作出估计。     

适度宽松货币政策下对区域信贷资源配置失衡问题的思考:以粤东四市为视角

在国家一系列经济刺激政策的作用下,适度宽松货币政策在总量上得到贯彻落实.但从结构来看,区域信贷资源配置出现失衡,主要表现为地区间、机构间、行业间不平衡以及信贷期限不平衡.本文分析了信贷资源配置失衡的原因及危害,有针对性地提出了推行"一定比例的新增存款投放当地"的金融政策,增加自下而上配置信贷资源的主动性、提高产业规划引导区域产业发展的作用、打造优良的区域金融生态环境等对策建议.     

适度宽松货币政策效应的差异性分析——以安徽省为例

为深入分析货币政策在安徽的实施效果以及与全国的差异,本文建立了全国层面以及安徽层面的货币政策传导VAR模型,对货币政策在全国和安徽的影响力进行实证分析,结果表明我国货币政策效应具有较强的区域差异性,安徽省短期内对全国统一的货币政策响应较快,但长期来看政策敏感度略低于全国整体水平。鉴于此,在经济企稳回暖的关键时刻,提高货币政策敏感度和执行效率仍然是当前货币政策工作的重点。     

银行信贷调整的经济增长效应研究

银行信贷创造货币的功能通过资本深化带动了经济增长。1994~2000年间,中国实施紧缩信贷的政策,银行信贷增长率每降低1%,经济增长率降低0.79%,从紧的信贷政策对抑制1992~1993年的经济过热起到了一定的作用,但是也使这一阶段经济增长一度低迷。2001~2007年,银行信贷增长率每增加1%,经济增长率增加0.2%,稳健的信贷政策对经济增长产生了明显的影响。因此,当前实施的"适度宽松"信贷政策必定会给经济增长带来积极的影响。     

定量宽松还是信贷宽松?——基于伯南克货币救助政策创新的思考北大核心CSSCISSCI

进入21世纪还不到10年,日本和美国就先后采取了区别于传统调控机制的新型货币政策——定量宽松政策和信贷宽松政策,以解决自己国家内部的持续通货紧缩问题或全面金融危机问题。本文分别就这两种货币政策的主要内容结合具体国家的实际执行情况展开研究,并从实施目的、运作机理及衡量与监测状态三方面分析了两种政策的不同。     

定量宽松还是信贷宽松?——基于伯南克货币救助政策创新的思考

进入21世纪还不到10年,日本和美国就先后采取了区别于传统调控机制的新型货币政策——定量宽松政策和信贷宽松政策,以解决自己国家内部的持续通货紧缩问题或全面金融危机问题。本文分别就这两种货币政策的主要内容结合具体国家的实际执行情况展开研究,并从实施目的、运作机理及衡量与监测状态三方面分析了两种政策的不同。     

当前适度宽松货币政策之冷思考

国际金融危机对世界经济带来了沉重的打击,同时对我国的经济也带来了很大的负面影响,在对待这个危机方面,我国采取了积极的应对措施。但是国际金融形势的不明朗,同时由于我国经济回稳的基础还不是那么牢固,宏观经济走向还不是那么清晰,存在很大的不确定性。在分析了当前适度宽松的货币政策的必要性,当前货币政策存在的潜在风险,最后提出了防范风险的措施。     

当前适度宽松货币政策之冷思考

国际金融危机对世界经济带来了沉重的打击,同时对我国的经济也带来了很大的负面影响,在对待这个危机方面,我国采取了积极的应对措施。但是国际金融形势的不明朗,同时由于我国经济回稳的基础还不是那么牢固,宏观经济走向还不是那么清晰,存在很大的不确定性。在分析了当前适度宽松的货币政策的必要性,当前货币政策存在的潜在风险,最后提出了防范风险的措施。     

The Trade Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Nonfinancial Manufacturing Firms in Turkey

This study investigates the trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission in Turkey by using a large panel of corporate firms and includes detailed information on balance sheets and income statements of firms that regularly reported to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey during the period 1996-2008. The study suggests that the composition of external finance differs considerably across firm types based on size and export performance under tight and loose financial conditions. Small and medium-size manufacturing firms and firms with a low export share are less likely to have access to bank finance, especially in tight periods. In addition, financially constrained firms with limited access to bank finance (small, low-export-share firms) tend to substitute trade credits for bank loans more aggressively in tight periods as monetary policy tightens. The large volume of trade credit on firms' balance sheets and its positive response to contractionary monetary shocks imply that the trade credit channel might subdue the traditional credit channel of monetary transmission.     

信贷配给理论与货币政策中介目标的选择

信贷配给理论研究不对称信息条件下自由竞争信贷市场运行机制,为货币政策变动影响实际经济的可能途径提供了比传统理论更为丰富的论证。信贷配给的客观存在限制了利率作为中介目标发挥的传导作用。中国经历着从非均衡信贷配给到均衡信贷配给的过程,信贷对货币政策的有效性会产生重要影响。因此,中国应采取组合的方式选择货币政策中介目标,以更有效地传导货币政策意图,更好地实现货币政策最终目标。     

Price- vs. Quantity-Based Monetary Policies and Credit Substitution Asymmetry

The literature on the informal credit channels of the transmission of monetary policy overlooks the distinction between price- and quantity-based policies. This article contributes to filling this gap by investigating the asymmetric effects of the two types of policies on trade-credit substitution for bank credit using data from the largest emerging economy, China. China presents an ideal experimental context, as the country has implemented both types of monetary policies in the past decades. We find strong evidence that quantity-based monetary policy has stronger effects on credit substitution in China. This evidence is robust under both static and dynamic specifications, which remains intact after the disentanglement of the interdependency of the two types of policies. By subgrouping, we find that large and state-controlled firms play the central role in creating the substitution asymmetry. Furthermore, international evidence indicates that India also witnesses substitution asymmetry skewed to quantity-based policies. The findings suggest the need for further reform of China’s financial system toward a market-based system to enhance the effectiveness of the proposed monetary policies.     

央行沟通、宏观经济环境与企业投资——利率渠道、信贷渠道与预期渠道货币政策的对比分析

本文对比研究央行沟通对企业投资的短周期引导能力。结果显示:在短周期内由于传导时滞,利率渠道的货币政策难以引导企业增加投资;信贷渠道的货币政策对企业投资有一定的引导作用;央行沟通能够通过预期渠道引导企业投资,但单独实行央行沟通的引导作用仍然有限。如果在进行央行沟通的同时配合信贷政策影响企业持有现金,就可能在短周期引导企业增加投资。此外,企业财务杠杆会减弱央行沟通的效果,企业投资价值对央行沟通效果没有显著影响。     

数字金融、银行信贷渠道与货币政策传导

作为新兴金融业态,数字金融发展会对既有金融体系带来怎样的冲击和影响?聚焦于货币政策传导机制这一宏观命题,立足于我国以银行信贷渠道为主导的数量型中介,运用我国商业银行、A股上市公司的微观面板数据,本文深度剖析了数字金融发展与货币政策银行信贷渠道传导之间的内在联系和影响机理。研究发现:(1)数字金融发展显著弱化了货币政策银行信贷渠道的传导效应,采用工具变量法克服内生性和控制影子银行变量等一系列稳健性检验后的结果依然支持该结论。(2)具体而言,数字金融削弱银行信贷渠道传导效果是通过改变银行资产负债结构和弱化实体企业对银行贷款的依赖而实现的。(3)上述弱化效应在以城市和农村商业银行为主的中小型金融机构以及低资本、低流动性和低报酬的银行中尤为突出。     

Optimal Monetary Policy with Countercyclical Credit Spreads

We study optimal monetary policy in a New‐Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with a credit channel and relationship lending in banking. We show that borrowers' bank‐specific (deep) habits give rise to countercyclical credit spreads, which, in turn, make optimal monetary policy depart substantially from price stability, under both discretion and commitment. Our analysis shows that the welfare costs of setting monetary policy under discretion (with respect to the optimal Ramsey plan) and of using simpler suboptimal policy rules are strictly increasing in the magnitude of deep habits in credit markets and market power in banking.     

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Money and Credit

We investigate the extent to which monetary policy can enhance the functioning of the private credit system. Specifically, we characterize the optimal return on money in the presence of credit arrangements. There is a dual role for credit: it allows buyers to trade without fiat money and also permits them to borrow against future income. However, not all traders have access to credit. As a result, there is a social role for fiat money because it allows agents to self‐insure against the risk of not being able to use credit in some transactions. We consider a (nonlinear) monetary mechanism that is designed to enhance the credit system. An active monetary policy is sufficient for relaxing credit constraints. Finally, we characterize the optimal monetary policy and show that it necessarily entails a positive inflation rate.     

Policy Uncertainty and Bank Mortgage Credit

We document that banks reduce the supply of mortgage loans when policy uncertainty increases in their headquarter states as measured by the timing of U.S. gubernatorial elections. The reduction is larger for term-limited elections and close elections. We utilize high-frequency, geographically granular loan-level data to address an identification problem arising from changing local loan demand: (i) we estimate a difference-in-difference specification with state/time or county/time fixed effects; (ii) banks reduce lending outside their home states as well when their home states hold elections; and (iii) we observe important cross-sectional differences in the way banks with different characteristics respond to policy uncertainty.     

LPR改革对居民消费信贷的影响分析

作为利率市场化的关键一步,贷款市场报价利率(LPR)形成机制的改革有助于提高利率传导效率,并以市场化手段推动降低实体经济融资成本。这同样会对居民部门消费需求产生影响。特别是在居民杠杆率增长快、资产流动性不足、信贷渠道发挥的作用相对有限的背景下,以LPR为基础的贷款定价方式改革不仅有助于优化跨期消费决策,缓解偿债压力,强化直接利率效应,还可以通过提升企业经营效率以及居民收入,加强间接收入效应。     

我国货币政策信贷传导渠道的实证分析

为应对国际金融危机的挑战和解决国内经济运行中的突出矛盾,我国的货币政策已发生了根本性的转变,即从偏紧缩的政策转为促进经济增长的适度宽松的政策。本文通过采用向量自回归模型、冲击反应分析和预期误差项方差分解等方法,发现信贷传导渠道是我国货币政策的重要传导渠道,并且信贷传导渠道具有有效性。