"民工荒"并不能说明我国经济到了"刘易斯转折点"

本文从微观角度考察农民工的劳动供给行为,认为“民工荒”现象是农民工在一定工资预期下的理性行为,并不意味着“刘易斯转折点”的到来。由于生活、教育、医疗等基本保障的需要,农民工还没有能力在劳动供给上自由选择,只有当农村劳动力进一步转移后,“刘易斯转折点”才会真正到来,经济增长方式才会发生根本变化。     

“民工荒”我国经济到了并不能说明“刘易斯转折点”

本文从微观角度考察农民工的劳动供给行为,认为“民工荒”现象是农民工在一定工资预期下的理性行为,并不意味着“刘易斯转折点”的到来。由于生活、教育、医疗等基本保障的需要,农民工还没有能力在劳动供给上自由选择,只有当农村劳动力进一步转移后,“刘易斯转折点”才会真正到来,经济增长方式才会发生根本变化。     

中国进入“刘易斯拐点”了吗？——对“民工荒”的思考

长期以来,国内对“刘易斯拐点”理论存在着一些理解的偏差,必须正确理解才能更好地认识“民工荒”现象。“民工荒”现象本质上是制度缺失、权利缺失和中间劳动力领域结构性短缺综合作用的结果。我国目前仍存在大量的剩余劳动力,“民工荒”并不能表明我国已进入“刘易斯拐点”,而工资上涨也只是对廉价劳动力的补偿。     

治结构性就业难还需加大教育投入 警惕招工难、就业难演变为人才短缺

正过去的中国是一个典型的二元经济,最大特点是拥有无限供给的劳动力。而我们现在却在劳动力供给上面临两个转折点:第一个是我们从2004年开始,在沿海地区出现了民工荒的现象,需要注意的是,这场民工荒不是临时性、周期性的,而是一直持续至今长达10年的招工难。由于劳动力短缺,因此这10年来,中国低端劳动者的工资一直在持续上涨。     

治结构性就业难还需加大教育投入 警惕招工难、就业难演变为人才短缺

过去的中国是一个典型的二元经济，最大特点是拥有无限供给的劳动力。而我们现在却在劳动力供给上面临两个转折点：第一个是我们从2004年开始，在沿海地区出现了民工荒的现象，需要注意的是，这场民工荒不是临时性、周期性的，而是一直持续至今长达10年的招工难。由于劳动力短缺，因此这10年来，中国低端劳动者的工资一直在持续上涨。     

“刘易斯拐点”、开放经济与中国二元经济转型

"民工荒"和工资上涨现象引起较多关于"刘易斯拐点"的争议。本文从开放经济与二元经济关系的视角出发,指出中国的二元经济转型是城镇化、工业化和经济开放过程的并存。同时,中国的刘易斯拐点仍未到来,工资差距仍在行业和地区间存在,并吸引剩余劳动力向东部地区的劳动密集型制造业和服务业转移。而外部冲击、城镇化和工业化不匹配等现象的存在,是造成剩余劳动力与"民工荒"现象并存的主要原因。基于284个地级市宏观层面数据的实证分析支持上述结论。     

安徽应对刘易斯拐点的对策建议

劳动力供应由过剩向短缺转变、工资开始上涨的时点即＂刘易斯拐点＂。由于中国经济的持续发展,以及计划生育政策效应,青壮年劳动力供给已开始出现供不应求现象,工资普遍上涨,中国＂刘易斯拐点＂已经悄然到来。＂刘易斯拐点＂对于经济、社会发展、转型具有标志性意义,安徽是传统农业、劳动力大省,应抓住机遇,顺势而为,积极应对。     

中国经济未来趋势长期向好

2008年中国经济的走向颇具戏剧性。6月以前政府还在为CPI不断上涨头疼，采取从紧的货币政策抑制投资增长过快、贸易顺差过大和流动性过剩，8月学界还在讨论刘易斯拐点来临后如何应对劳动力短缺。转眼之间，流动性开始短缺，不少企业资金链断裂，存在数年的“民工荒”不见踪影，取而代之的是大批农民工提前返乡，就业一跃成为政府和社会最为关注的严重问题。     

农民工为何逃离城市

无限供给的廉价劳动力一直被视为我国竞逐世界工厂的核心竞争力,一直被某些官员视为吸引外商投资的一大利器,然而这一两年来广东、福建等东南沿海一带却出现了前所未有的"民工荒",这究竟是怎么一回事?对此,国家统计局局长李德水强调指出,我国局部地方发生"民工荒"现象的根本原因是农民工工资太低。国家对珠江三角洲地区农民工收入的-份调查数据显示,该地区的农民工工资20多年不变,平均月工资只有600元左右。     

浅析"民工荒"原因与对策

"民工荒"的出现,是我国劳动力市场发生变化的一个重要反映,但绝不意味着我国劳动力总量已经不能满足经济发展的要求,而是对传统的劳资关系提出了新的挑战和对劳动力市场要求劳动力资源优化配置的一种反映.农民工供需比例和结构的不协调,供需均衡被打破,”民工荒”现象再次出现了.要解决”民工荒”问题,必须从根本上消除对农民工的歧视以及从体制上改善农民工进城务工的环境.     

Wage increases, wage convergence, and the Lewis turning point in China

We examine the wage trends of ordinary workers and the wage convergence between unskilled and skilled workers in China. First, we find that wages in all non-agricultural sectors, wages of migrant workers, and wages of hired workers in the agricultural sector have increased dramatically since 2003. Second, through comparing wage differentials between migrant and urban resident workers and between heterogeneous education groups within migrant workers, and by investigating the changes in the contribution of the returns to education to wage differentials, we find that the wages of unskilled and skilled workers have converged. Both the increasing wage trends and wage convergence are interpreted as evidence supporting the hypothesis that China has passed what can be called the Lewis turning point in the industrial sector. We conclude that the sustainability of economic growth in China requires an upgrading of labor market institutions to accommodate the merging of the rural and urban labor forces.     

China has reached the Lewis turning point

In the past several years, labor shortage in China has become an emerging issue. However, there is heated debate on whether China has passed the Lewis turning point and entered a new era of labor shortage from a period of unlimited labor supply. Most empirical studies on this topic focus on the estimation of total labor supply and demand. Yet the poor quality of labor statistics leaves the debate open. In this paper, China's position along the Lewis continuum is examined though primary surveys of wage rates, a more reliable statistic than employment data. Our results show a clear rising trend of real wages rate since 2003. The acceleration of real wages even in slack seasons indicates that the era of surplus labor is over. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development model.     

中国刘易斯拐点的异象、人口红利与经济增长

中国经济由二元模式向一元模式转变过程中必然会面临刘易斯拐点问题.文章对中国的刘易斯拐点异象给出了一个理论说明,解释了“民工荒”与农村大量剩余劳动力并存现象的一个重要原因是劳动生产率的人力资本差异.本文还指出中国三十多年来之所以能通过高投资驱动经济增长主要是得益于充裕的人口红利,近几年,“民工荒”使得从表面上看人口红利行将消失,但是实际上农村大量剩余劳动力是潜在的巨额人口红利,应最大限度地加以利用,本文提出了一系列有利于将潜在人口红利转化为现实人口红利的措施,并指出短期内在无法实现经济增长方式根本性转变的条件下,充分利用人口红利的重要意义.     

Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view

This paper assesses the applicability of two alternative theories in understanding labor market developments in China: the classical view featuring a Lewis turning point in wage growth versus a neoclassical framework emphasizing rational choices of individuals and equilibrating forces of the market. Empirical evidence based on multiple data sources fails to validate the arrival of the Lewis turning point in China, showing continuous and coordinated wage growth across rural and urban sectors instead. Consistent with the neoclassical view, we find that rural workers expanded off-farm work when mobility restrictions were lifted, interprovincial migration responded to expected earnings and local employment conditions, and returns to education converged gradually to the international standard. These findings suggest major progresses in the integration of labor markets in China.     

农村剩余劳动力转移难的的原因及对策研究

中国农村剩余劳动力数量大是制约中国经济发展的一个重要因素,十七届三中全会的召开以及新的土地流转政策的出台加速了农村剩余劳动里的增长,本文从中国农村剩余劳动力的现状入手,分析转移难的农村剩余劳动力的整体素质低、在转移的过程中缺乏政策支持以及劳动力市场制约等原因,从职业教育的角度出发,以大力发展农村职业教育为重点来促进农村剩余劳动力转移。     

Solution to the Dilemma of the Migrant Labor Shortage and the Rural Labor Surplus in China

Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.     

农村富余劳动力的有序转移：重庆调查

农村富余劳动力的转移是破解"三农"问题、实现城乡统筹发展的有效途径。对重庆的调研表明,长期以来形成的城乡分割的二元结构、农村劳动力就业素质偏低和现行的土地营理政策等是制约农村富余劳动力有序转移的重要因素。加快农村富余劳动力有序转移,促进城乡统筹发展,应采取完善农民工外出就业制度、加强农村劳动力转移就业职业技能培训、健全土地管理政策和现行土地流转制度、加大农村基础设施投入、促进县域经济和小城镇发展以及完善政府行政管理体制等方面的保障措施。     

就业选择对区域间农民收入差异的影响：江苏的证据

江苏省农村居民家庭收入差距具有区域差异性、农业贡献递减性和工资性来源主导性等基本特征。就业选择对收入区域差异影响的分析表明,劳动力产业转移的收入效应单调递增,不同劳动力转移模式的收入效应各异,行业技术密集度的收入效应为正。缩小农村居民收入差距应发展县域经济,推动农村劳动力最大限度地向非农产业转移;细化劳动力市场,提高农村劳动力就业层次;拓展人力资本投资渠道,提升就业稳定性和收入水平:加大政府引导干预力度,完善农村劳动力就业的外部环境。     

Hukou System Reform and Unification of Rural-urban Social Welfare

Using a political economy analytical framework, the present paper examines the hukou system reform in China. The potential unification of the social welfare system of rural and urban areas is discussed. The paper reviews the progress of hukou system reform since 2004. It is suggested that since China met its Lewis turning point in about 2004, and a labor shortage became a limiting factor in production, there has been stronger demand for hukou system reform. In the meantime, various levels of government have a point where incentives are compatibile for carrying out reforms. The paper also explores some limitations of the currently implemented reform in certain regions and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.