尼斯主题酒店：让投资升值

在新加坡尼斯酒店集团（La Nice Hotels＆Resorts）北京的办公室,《国际融资》杂志记者采访了该酒店集团董事局主席张志明先生。张先生是尼斯酒店集团的投资人,更是一位享有酒店管理最高荣誉——美国酒店业协会颁发的酒店行政管理师（CHA）的资深专家。当年,香港获此殊荣的仅有6位,而大陆却为空白。凭借他三十多年的酒店工作经验,他发现中国主题酒店诺大的发展空间可以让尼斯酒店在创意及管理上的造诣与优势发挥到极致,于是,他毅然决然地卖掉了公司在国外所有酒店管理项目,全力以赴发展在大陆的主题酒店管理项目。他很自信尼斯的创意可以让酒店投资升值,尼斯的管理可以让酒店获取可持续发展的利润空间     

Performance of impact investing: A value creation approach

The purpose of this article is to present an overview about the origins of value creation in impact investing and propose a measure of value creation. According to this point of view, impact investing, i.e. investing in enterprises with a both social and financial objective can be justified only if those enterprises can provide for a higher performance than with a simple portfolio diversification (separate investment in two types of activity). After an overview about the sources of value creation in impact investees as well as about a discussion on existing methods, we propose a method to measure multidimensional value creation.     

Managing ethical risk: How investing in ethics adds value

In September 1999, the University of Notre Dame hosted a conference entitled “Measuring and Managing Ethical Risk: How Investing in Ethics Adds Value”. The motivations for hosting the conference and the papers presented there are summarized. Several themes that are present in the papers are discussed. These include the gains from combining the anthropological approach to business ethics with the neoclassical economics approach, the central role of trust in business ethics, the role of ethics in the corporation, and the function of the legal system in setting and enforcing ethical standards for the financial system.     

Myopic loss aversion and margin of safety: the risk of value investing

Abstract

Most modern financial markets use a continuous double auction mechanism to store and match orders and facilitate trading. In this paper we develop a microscopic dynamical statistical model for the continuous double auction under the assumption of IID random order flow, and analyse it using simulation, dimensional analysis, and theoretical tools based on mean field approximations. The model makes testable predictions for basic properties of markets, such as price volatility, the depth of stored supply and demand versus price, the bid–ask spread, the price impact function, and the time and probability of filling orders. These predictions are based on properties of order flow and the limit order book, such as share volume of market and limit orders, cancellations, typical order size, and tick size. Because these quantities can all be measured directly there are no free parameters. We show that the order size, which can be cast as a non-dimensional granularity parameter, is in most cases a more significant determinant of market behaviour than tick size. We also provide an explanation for the observed highly concave nature of the price impact function. On a broader level, this work suggests how stochastic models based on zero intelligence agents may be useful to probe the structure of market institutions. Like the model of perfect rationality, a stochastic zero intelligence model can be used to make strong predictions based on a compact set of assumptions, even if these assumptions are not fully believable.     

Growth vs value investing: Persistence and time trend before and after COVID-19

Value investing and growth investing allow economic experts to adopt different investment strategies depending on their chosen specialty; the two investment types have been conditioned by the pandemic, changing the trend of investments and their results. This research aims to analyze the behavior and trends of the different investment strategies before and after the health crisis. We use methodologies based on fractional integration and cointegration to analyze the persistence and trend of the series and their relationship in the long run. We find that the shock is long-lived and causes a change in trend; however, we find no evidence of mean reversion. In addition, we use multivariate wavelet analysis to analyze the correlation between both time series, concluding that a growth-based investment strategy is more successful than a value-based investment strategy. We use neural networks to corroborate our results.     

Inferring fundamental value and crash nonlinearity from bubble calibration

Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in general, not directly observable and it is poorly constrained to calculate. Further, it is not possible to distinguish between an exponentially growing fundamental price and an exponentially growing bubble price. In this paper, we present a series of new models based on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette (JLS) model, which is a flexible tool to detect bubbles and predict changes of regime in financial markets. Our new models identify the fundamental value of an asset price and a crash nonlinearity from a bubble calibration. In addition to forecasting the time of the end of a bubble, the new models can also estimate the fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity, meaning that identifying the presence of a bubble is enabled by these models. In addition, the crash nonlinearity obtained in the new models presents a new approach to possibly identify the dynamics of a crash after a bubble. We test the models using data from three historical bubbles ending in crashes from different markets. They are the Hong Kong Hang Seng index 1997 crash, the S&P 500 index 1987 crash (Black Monday) and the Shanghai Composite index 2009 crash. All results suggest that the new models perform very well in describing bubbles, forecasting their ending times and estimating fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity. The performance of the new models is tested under both the Gaussian residual assumption and non-Gaussian residual assumption. Under the Gaussian residual assumption, nested hypotheses with the Wilks' statistics are used and the p-values suggest that models with more parameters are necessary. Under the non-Gaussian residual assumption, we use a bootstrap method to obtain type I and II errors of the hypotheses. All tests confirm that the generalized JLS models provide useful improvements over the standard JLS model.     

The value of information and optimal organization

The article addresses the issue of optimal organization of production. I compare three organizational forms: centralization (one agent produces different inputs), decentralization (each of two agents produces a different input and contracts directly with the principal), and delegation (two agents produce different inputs, the principal contracts with one of them only). The optimal organizational form depends on the degree of complementarity/substitutability between the inputs in the final use. The degree of complementarity/substitutability also determines whether delegation is payoff equivalent to the two‐agent mechanism from the point of view of the principal. In the context of delegation, I consider which of the two agents should serve as the primary contractor. I also address the issue of collusion between the agents in a decentralized organization and characterize the conditions under which a stake of collusion exists.     

Deviations from optimal CEO ownership and firm value

The transaction cost theory of managerial ownership and firm value predicts that deviations from optimal managerial ownership reduce firm value. This paper empirically tests the transaction cost theory by studying the relation between deviations on either side of optimal CEO ownership and firm value. We find that both above-optimal and below-optimal deviations reduce firm value. We find that a change in CEO ownership is associated with a higher (lower) abnormal return if it moves the ownership towards (away from) the optimal level. These findings are consistent with the transaction cost theory of managerial ownership and firm value.     

Enhancement of value investing strategies based on financial statement variables: the German evidence

This paper examines the added-value of combining traditional valuation ratios with each other as well as with some financial statement variables in the German stock markets during the 2000–2015 period. The results show that combination pays off and, moreover, that the benefits of combination are greater in Germany than in most other developed stock markets. Particularly, we find strong evidence of the added-value of using Piotroski’s F-score as a supplementary selection criterion for value stocks as well as for low-accrual stocks. Our results show further that the F-score also boosts the efficacy of other valuation ratios besides the book-to-price ratio. In addition, the inclusion of F-score besides a relative value measure tends to increase the average market equity of portfolio firms. The decomposition of the full-sample-period performance into separate bull- and bear-period performance shows clearly that the better performance of F-score-boosted portfolios is mostly attributable to their outperformance during bearish periods, even though on average, they also generate higher bull-period returns than the comparable value portfolios formed without F-score. The use of F-score as a supplementary criterion also increases the proportion of stocks that earn above-market-average returns during the subsequent holding period. For the first time in the financial literature, we also document a strong relationship between high F-score stocks and momentum stocks.     

投资天使及其投资要诀

如何使所选项目的投资回报率高达1000％?数以万计的富人如何寻找投资项目?如何判断投资项目?如何决策投资项目? 请看     

Style investing and firm innovation

We document that transient, dedicated and quasi-indexed institutional investors exhibit a high degree of within-group heterogeneity with respect to their investment styles (i.e., growth, value, and balanced). We find that growth institutional investors enhance firm innovation in terms of R&D expenditures, R&D intensity, quantity and quality of patents and patent radicalness while value institutional investors impede innovation. Balanced investors have no significant association with innovation. Findings are consistent with style investing literature that growth and value styles are substitutes. Using investment styles, we present evidence that reconcile literature’s mixed findings on how transient and dedicated investors affect R&D and innovation, and why quasi-indexed investors, the largest group among all investors, have an insignificant effect. We also show that the effect of institutional investors depends on the firm’s relative level of innovativeness.     

Short trading and short investing

Short selling is measured in the literature as both constraint (e.g., lending fees) and activity (e.g., trades). We show that these two measures capture separate effects, which we characterize into two different strategies. The first strategy, “short trading,” has minimal constraints, weekly scale return predictability and average risk. The second strategy, “short investing,” has high constraints, multi-month return predictability and higher risk. Moreover, each strategy incorporates different types of information. Short trading includes short-lived information while short investing includes more long-lived, fundamental information. This diversity in short sellers has implications for both theoretical and empirical research.     

The effect of takeovers on the fundamental value of acquirers

This paper develops a new methodology to examine the financial impact of acquisitions, designed to address whether takeovers yield a positive net present value for the acquiring company. Specifically, we employ the residual income valuation method to compare the fundamental value of the acquiring company before acquisition with the fundamental value after acquisition.We apply this methodology to 303 UK acquisitions completed during 1985–1996, and compare the results with the effects of takeover on profitability and short‐ and long‐run share returns. We find that the impact of acquisition on fundamental value is slightly negative but statistically insignificant. This result differs from the effect of takeover on profitability, which is significantly positive, and the effect of takeover on share returns, which is significantly negative.     

Modelling mean reversion of asset prices towards their fundamental value

In this paper we extend the study of mean reversion behavior by modelling the fundamental value as a stochastic process. The market value of the asset is then modelled as a mean reverting Ornstein Uhlenbeck process towards the fundamental value. Solving backwards, we determine the functional form of the regression equation of changes in asset prices and returns to changes to the fundamental value. Using earnings and dividends as proxies for the fundamental value we test our model empirically. In general, other than the shortest horizon of 1-year, our model shows good explanatory power. Since our model is compatible with Campbell and Shiller (1988) framework in the earnings case and Fama and French (1988) model in the dividend case, the performance of our model has been compared with those two models. In comparison, the performance of our model is comparable to that of Campbell and Shiller and compares favorably with Fama and French.     

Short selling activity,price efficiency and fundamental value of IPO stocks

In this study, we take advantage of the unique features of the Taiwan stock market, where short selling is forbidden within the first six months following an IPO. We examine the effects of short selling on IPO price efficiency and the relation between short selling activities and the fundamental value of IPO stocks. We find that price efficiency is improved with increased short selling after the lifting of short sale constraints on IPO stocks. We also show that short sellers tend to target IPO stocks with low fundamental ratios, but simultaneously avoid stocks with high transaction costs. In addition, we provide empirical evidence that short sellers focus more on temporary price fluctuations rather than temporary fluctuations in fundamentals.     

On the positive fundamental value of money with short-sale constraints

This paper is concerned with the pricing of money in a framework with restrictions on trading, under an extension of the standard-asset pricing theory that recognizes both tangible and intangible returns. It is argued that the underlying motivations for demanding money give content to its fundamental value and the bubble component. This approach is illustrated by analyzing the case where no short-sales are allowed, as two examples from the literature are made used to assert that money is a pure pricing bubble. Owing to this setup exhibits technically incomplete financial markets, the fundamental value of money is not uniquely defined over the set of generalized state-price processes. Then, these examples are shown to comprise an extreme case, as money is a pure store of value for the state-prices chosen (i.e., it is a pricing bubble). Instead, the fundamental value of money can be positive for other state-prices, representing the role of money in the trading process. Therefore, money should not be considered the equivalent of a pure pricing bubble.      

Factor investing and currency portfolio management

Currency-specific pricing factors are pervasive in international asset pricing. However, portfolio and risk management based on forex factors, instead of individual currencies, are rarely discussed. This paper tries to fill this gap by modelling dynamic correlations and non-normality among forex factors. By considering the four most popular forex factors: the dollar risk factor, the carry trade factor, the currency momentum factor, and the currency value factor, we find that a dynamic conditional correlation copula (DCC-copula) model with skewed-t kernel fits the joint distribution well. We show that, for risk-averse investors who focus on factor investing or employ the forex factors to resize the specific risk exposure, ignoring the tail dependence structure of forex factors brings significant costs.     

Style investing,comovement and return predictability

Barberis and Shleifer (2003) argue that style investing generates momentum and reversals in style and individual asset returns, as well as comovement between individual assets and their styles. Consistent with these predictions, in some specifications, past style returns help explain future stock returns after controlling for size, book-to-market and past stock returns. We also use comovement to identify style investing and assess its impact on momentum. High comovement momentum portfolios have significantly higher future returns than low comovement momentum portfolios. Overall, our results suggest that style investing plays a role in the predictability of asset returns.     

Momentum investing and the asset allocation decision

This study examines the active asset allocation decisions of Australian multisector fund managers to determine whether active fund managers engage in momentum strategies. We find evidence supporting the existence of momentum investing in active asset allocation strategies. This evidence exists in the Australian Equities, Australian Fixed Interest and Listed Property asset classes. Interestingly, balanced funds adopt contrarian strategies in the International Equities asset class. We also examine whether there is any association between a fund's market timing skill and the execution of momentum strategies. Our results show that fund managers with no market timing skill are momentum investors.     

Analytic value function for optimal regime-switching pairs trading rules

We introduce a regime-switching Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (O–U) model to address an optimal investment problem. Our study gives a closed-form expression for a regime-switching pairs trading value function consisting of probability and expectation of the double boundary stopping time of the Markov-modulated O–U process. We derive analytic solutions for the homogenous and non-homogenous ODE systems with initial value conditions for probability and expectation of the double boundary stopping time, and translate the solutions with boundary value conditions into solutions with initial value conditions. Based on the smoothness and continuity of the value function, we can obtain the optimum of the value function with thresholds and guarantee the existence of optimal thresholds in a finite closed interval. Our numerical analysis illustrates the rationality of theoretical model and the shape of transition probability and expected stopping time, as well as discusses sensitivity analysis in both one-state and two-state regime-switching models. We find that the optimal expected return per unit time in the two-state regime-switching model is higher than that of one-state regime-switching model. Likewise, the regime-switching model’s optimal thresholds are closer and more symmetric to the long-term mean.