The Schumpeterian role of financial innovations in the New Economy's business cycle

Alan Greenspan claims that modern financial innovations, especiallyfinancial derivatives, were major contributors to a Schumpeterianprocess of ‘creative destruction’ which produceda high-growth ‘New Economy’ and opposes their regulation.A different perspective emerges when it is recognised that the‘New Economy’ followed the general contours of aSchumpeterian business cycle, and the role of modern financialinnovations is examined in that context. The authors argue thatthe primary role of financial derivatives has been in contributingto ‘reckless finance’ and speculative excesses inthe second phase of that cycle, and that Schumpeter would favoursubjecting the use of derivatives to more regulation.     

The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point detection. Focusing on three countries, the US, UK and Spain, we furthermore provide evidence that although potentially informative from an overall perspective in business cycle modelling, the significance of signals contained in house prices may not be symmetric across the identified high growth and low growth states. In addition, we suggest a possible range of values for house price deflation which may trigger a recession the following period.     

The foundations of trust: macro and micro

This comment on Beugelsdijk's (2006) critique of trust and itsmeasurement argues that it misses the mark, and that there isneither a theoretical nor an empirical foundation for thinkingthat the macro and micro foundations of trust or its measurementare different from each other. Generalised trust is more thana simple illusion hiding behind institutional structures.     

Post-crisis business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy

ABSTRACT

Business investment in the euro area strongly declined during the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. It has not yet rebounded to its pre-crisis trend despite the very expansionary monetary policy measures of the ECB. We analyse the sluggish recovery in business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy in three steps. We investigate the main factors that have impeded business investment since the Global Financial Crisis. We empirically analyse how business investment has developed compared to typical patterns during other financial crises. Based on these results, we then discuss how effective monetary policy has been in stimulating business investment since the Global Financial Crisis. We conclude that business investment in the euro area has developed broadly in line with typical post-crisis patterns. Monetary policy significantly contributed to stabilize business investment at the beginning of the crises. In the aftermath of the crises, however, there seems to be little scope for monetary policy to further stimulate investment.     

An experimental analysis of cooperation and productivity in the trust game

In the standard trust game the surplus is increased by the risk taking first mover while cooperation by the second mover is a one-to-one transfer. This paper reports results from experiments in which the reverse holds; the first mover’s risky trust is not productive and the second mover’s cooperation is productive. This subtle difference significantly lowers the likelihood of trust but increases the likelihood of cooperation conditional on trust. Evidence is presented that the change in trust is consistent with first movers failing to anticipate the later result. Drawing upon the analogy that the trust game represents a model of exchange, the results suggest that markets should be organized so that the buyer moves first and not the seller as in the original trust game.

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Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply

Summary. We establish conditions under which indeterminacy can occur in a small open economy business cycle model with endogenous labor supply. Indeterminacy requires small externalities in technologies with social constant returns to scale, independently of the intertemporal elasticities in both consumption and labor. Received: December 12, 2001; revised version: May 17, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"The paper has benefited from discussions with Jess Benhabib and Mark Weder, as well as from the comments of an anonymous referee. Correspondence to: Q. Meng     

浙江中小企业自主创新问题对策研究

提高中小企业自主创新能力对浙江经济具有重要的现实意义。本文简要回顾了浙江中小企业发展的概况,分析了中小企业自主创新的特点和存在的问题。在此基础上,提出浙江中小企业提高自主创新的对策建议。     

A note on the theory and measurement of trust in explaining differences in economic growth

This paper takes issue with the trend to attribute differencesin economic growth rates to differences in interpersonal trust.I discuss the World Values Survey (WVS) measure that is usedto operationalise trust at the macro level. I hypothesise thatthere is a mismatch between the theoretical argument and theempirical operationalisation of trust. Instead of measuringtrust, the WVS measure may instead proxy the well-functioningof institutions. I provide circumstantial evidence for thisthesis by a principal components analysis of trust and institutionsand a robustness test of Zak and Knack's (2001. Trust and growth,Economic Journal, vol. 111, 295–321) seminal study ontrust and economic growth.     

Inequity aversion and trustees' reciprocity in the trust game

The introduction of inequity concerns into the Trust Game gives rise to complementary concepts of conditional trustworthiness and unconditional untrustworthiness. When the inequity concern is not accounted for, unconditional untrustworthiness is overestimated. The high proportion of trustees adopting the equal division behavioural norm suggests that an unequal distribution of show-up fees may deter trustors from placing trust, and may eventually reduce the incentive to cooperate for both players. It also follows that increases in income inequality can explain declines in self-reported trust in high-income countries.     

新疆房地产业发展问题研究

房地产业在促进新疆经济增长,改善居民居住环境,提升投资环境和促进社会和谐等方面起着重要作用.该文从新疆房地产投资情况、供需情况、住房结构情况、住房价格情况4个方面对新疆房地产业的发展现状进行了阐述,分析发现新疆房地产业所存在的问题主要表现为空置房面积偏大、区域发展不平衡等4个阻碍房地产业发展的因素,提出采取加大行业监管力度、加快住房结构调整、引导空置房租赁、降低房价等对策建议,促进新疆房地产业的健康发展.     

The New Keynesian business cycle achievements and challenges

The New-Keynesian (NK) business cycle model has presented itself as a potential “workhorse” model for business cycle analysis. This paper seeks to assess afresh the performance of the baseline NK model and its various extensions. The main theme of the paper is that although the dynamic NK literature has secured a robust defence to criticism arising, inter alia, on account of lack of microfoundations, it still has a long way to go in terms of providing a fully satisfactory model of the business cycle. In this regard, it is conjectured that explicitly accounting for the role of heterogeneity in business-cycle dynamics could lead towards a viable solution.

OECD pension reform: The role of demographic trends and the business cycle

Using a new real-time dataset from Beetsma et al. (2020) containing all pension reform measures in 23 OECD countries between 1970 and 2017, we demonstrate that, in contrast to what one might a priori expect, the timing of pension reform measures coincides with business cycle shocks and not with current or projected demographic shocks. The OECD-wide demography only explains the general reform trend. We rationalize this finding using a political-economy model with two-sided adjustment costs to explain a lack of response of pension reform measures to changes in demographic indicators.     

Trust and trustworthiness in games: An experimental study of intergenerational advice

This paper investigates the development of conventions of trust in what we call intergenerational games, i.e., games played by a sequence of non-overplapping agents, who pass on advice on how to play the game across adjacent generations of players. Using the trust game of Berg et al. (1995) as our experimental decision problem, advice seems to decrease the amount of trustthat evolves when this game in played in an inter-generational manner in that it decreases the amount of money sent from Senders to Returners. Ironically, advice increases trustworthinessin that Returners tend to send more back. Further, subjects appear to follows conventions of reciprocity in that they tend to Send more if they think the Returners acted in a “kind” manner, where kind means the Sender sent more money than the receiver expected. Finally, while we find a causal relationship running from trustworthiness to trust, the opposite can not be established. We note that many of our results can only be achieved using the tools offered by inter-generational games. The inter-generational advice offered provides information not available when games are played in their static form. Combining that information with elicited beliefs of the Senders and Returners adds even more information that can be used to investigate the motives that subjects have for doing what they do. Electronic supplementary material Electronic supplementary material is available for this article at and accessible for authorised users. JEL Classification C91 · C72 Resources for this research were provided by National Science Foundation grants SBR-9709962 and SBR-9709079 and by both the Center for Experimental Social Science and the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics at New York University. We would like to thank Shachar Kariv for both his comments and research assistance. We also thank Mikhael Shor and Judy Goldberg for research assistance, and Yevgeniy Tovshteyn for computer programming.     

企业多元化经营的动机及风险分析

专业化战略和多元化战略到底哪一种好，是人们争论的热点问题。本文通过分析企业选择多元化战略的动机、实施多元化经营中存在的风险，阐明了企业实施多元化经营战略的利与弊端，对今后企业选择经营战略具有借鉴意义。     

The role of risk in contract choice

Structuring contracts to share risk in light of incentive problemsis the central premise of contract theory, yet the risk-sharingimplications have rarely been thoroughly tested using micro-levelcontract data. In this article we test the major implicationsof a principal-agent model of contracts using detailed dataon more than 4000 individual contracts from modern North Americanagriculture. On a case-by-case basis, our evidence fails tosupport the standard principal-agent model with risk aversionas an explanation of contract choice in modern North Americanfarming. At the same time, we find some support for models thatassume risk-neutral contracting parties and stress multiplemargins for moral hazard and enforcement costs.     

家族企业高管团队信任与战略决策关系

选取不同发展阶段的家族企业为研究样本,采用深度访谈收集一手数据,结合差序格局理论、高阶理论、战略决策过程理论等国内外研究成果,运用扎根理论,辅以NVivo10质性分析软件进行数据分析。研究发现,不同发展阶段的家族企业,由于高管团队的构成不同,表现出理性信任与特殊信任的不同信任类型,而理性信任更有利于提升家族企业的战略决策效果。此外,家族企业的高管信任类型决定了高管团队的决策参与和决策互动程度,进而影响了决策质量和决策承诺。     

组织公平与信任对知识共享的影响研究

文章基于初创小微型企业的组织公平和信任对知识共享的重要性,对组织公平和信任对知识共享影响机制的研究现状进行了梳理和分析,构建了初创小微型企业组织公平和信任对知识共享影响机制的概念模型,采用初创小微型企业的调查数据,对模型和变量间关系进行了实证检验。实证研究结果表明:初创小微型企业程序公平与同事信任对知识共享意愿无显著正向影响关系,而制度公平对知识共享意愿有显著正向影响关系;员工对主管信任对知识共享意愿有显著正向影响关系;员工对组织信任对知识共享意愿有显著正向影响关系。基于实证结果,初创小微型企业通过组织公平和信任来促进知识共享,初创小微型企业要从培养员工与主管、员工与组织彼此间信任关系;鼓励员工提案或建议制度,建立公开的提案制度并维护制度公平,同时配合奖励政策;公开化及透明化的管理决策过程,提高初创小微型企业员工对公平的认知,最终提升初创小微型企业员工的知识共享意愿。     

The role of trust in the 2008 financial crisis

Financial transactions require trust. This paper analyzes the role of trust in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. In order to find a role for trust, we need to find a role for trust in a standard economic model which differs from the rational expectation of the equilibrium outcome. It is argued that trust dropped dramatically in the Fall of 2008. The consequences and effects of this drop in trust are discussed.     

The co-evolution of business incubation and national innovation systems in Taiwan

Incubation has already proven to be of great value in promoting small and medium enterprise (SME) entrepreneurship activities and technological development in developed and developing countries. Incubation not only provides a diversified and integrated service for entrepreneurial ventures but also contributes upward to regional and national innovation and economic growth. Building upon the logic of co-evolution theory, this paper argues that incubation acts at the meso-level as a critical interface between macro-innovation systems and micro-business ventures. These multi-directional coupling elements in innovation ecology co-evolve to achieve collective interests and excellence, which in turn may stimulate technological development and social change. Important processes/mechanisms, including a policy kit and action, strategic networking, supportive associations, knowledge and intellectual capital management, among others, are discussed. Drawing on the national innovation system (NIS) and business incubation (BI) experience in Taiwan, we discuss the future prospects of incubation and innovation policies, including industrializing and globalizing incubation activities and virtual business incubation.