Do voluntary disclosures of bad news improve liquidity?

Can managers improve market liquidity and lower the cost of capital by providing voluntary earnings guidance? This study examines the impact of profit warnings on market liquidity and finds that voluntary disclosure of bad news actually improves market liquidity. By conducting an empirical study over the period 1995–2010 on NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX listed firms, we find that firms that issue profit warnings show enhanced market liquidity during the post-announcement period. We show that profit warnings reduce information asymmetry and lower bid-ask spreads and increase trading volumes. These results are invariant to daily (short run) and monthly (long run) data after controlling for firm specific attributes. The results have major corporate policy implications. By voluntarily disclosing negative earnings guidance by managers, firms will experience significant improvement in market liquidity, thereby lowering the cost of capital. Our results are even more profound for firms that release bad news with extremely negative stock market impact. In other words, voluntary disclosure of bad news is good for market liquidity.     

Market Reaction to Goodwill Impairments

This paper examines the information content of goodwill write-downs under International Accounting Standard (IAS) 36 (Impairment of Assets) and Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 142. We investigate whether the informational value depends on the reliability of the news. Using a sample of 564 goodwill write-down announcements issued from 2005 to 2009, we find a negative capital market reaction to announcements of unexpected goodwill write-offs. Our results indicate that investors react more negatively when a country's level of legal protection is low and allows more management discretion. We further report that market reaction is associated with managers explaining the write-down decision and depends on the verifiability of these explanations. Investors react more negatively when an unverifiable internal explanation is given and less negatively when a verifiable external explanation is provided. We do not find significant differences between write-down announcements under SFAS 142 and IAS 36.     

Optimal Licensing Contracts and the Value of a Patent

We extend Kamien and Tauman's (1986) analysis of the value of a patent. We find that an inventor can always design a fixed fee plus royalty contract such that his revenue is equal to the profit a monopoly endowed with the innovation could make on the market. This implies that the social value of a patent can be strictly negative whenever the patented innovation is of bad quality. We also explain why a principal can have an interest in using performance-based contracts although the principal and the agents are risk-neutral, information is symmetric, and agents' actions are verifiable.     

定期报告预约披露日期的信息含量

沪深两交易所从2002年初开始对外公布上市公司向其预约的定期报告披露日期,本文研究了这一日期是否包含对投资者有用的信息。我们发现,在交易所公布预约日期时,公司的预约披露日期越早,则其异常回报越高,反之则低。市场的这种反应可以用随后公布的实际会计业绩好坏加以解释。我们还考察了市场的这种反应在横截面上的差异,对发布过”好消息”的预警公告及规模较大的公司,市场的反应程度较低;同时还发现预约披露日期的信息含量并未被”坏消息”的业绩预警公告所取代,这说明预约披露日期对“坏消息”的预警公司起到了进一步的证实作用。     

Do Analysts Strategically Employ Cash Flow Forecast Revisions to Offset Negative Earnings Forecast Revisions?

We investigate whether analysts use cash flow forecasts to reduce the impact of earnings forecast revisions (EFRs) on market participants. In particular, we focus on conflict between an analyst's concurrent cash flow and earnings forecast revisions. We hypothesize and find that analysts are more likely to issue a positive cash flow forecast revision when they issue a negative earnings forecast revision concurrently, but not the opposite, particularly for Fortune 500 firms. Furthermore, our supplementary analyses suggest that (1) some analysts optimistically bias cash flow forecasts when they issue negative earnings forecast revisions; (2) the market pays less attention to the historical accuracy of analyst cash flow forecasts, so analysts have some latitude to present their cash flow forecasts in an optimistic way; and (3) the market reacts mainly to the direction, not the magnitude, of cash flow forecast revisions. Overall, these findings suggest that analysts may strategically use cash flow forecasts in conjunction with earnings forecasts to maintain good management relationships.     

Is there an equilibrating relationship between house prices and replacement cost? Empirical evidence from Berlin

It is a feature of competitive markets with forward-looking participants that a good’s benefit and its production cost are equalized in equilibrium and that no resources are wasted during the adjustment process. For housing markets, there is mixed evidence whether they meet this standard of allocative efficiency. Based on a unique data set with rich information on prices and cost, we examine the market for single-family houses in Germany’s capital Berlin. At the aggregate market level, we find that prices and cost tend to equalize in the long run. Short-run adjustment appears to be sufficiently fast and properly anticipated to prevent systematic excess profit opportunities. At the cross sectional level of individual houses, we find support that resources are allocated efficiently between different market segments. Taken together, our results provide sufficient evidence that the market in Berlin is efficient.     

Pricing Experience Goods: The Effects of Customer Recognition and Commitment

In a two‐period model of nondurable experience goods, we compare the profit and social welfare effects of behavior‐based price discrimination (BBPD) and price commitment (PC) (relative to time‐consistent pricing) in a monopoly. We find that when the static, full‐information monopoly price is higher (lower) than the mean consumer valuation, PC yields higher (lower) profits and social welfare than BBPD. We also identify the market conditions under which BBPD does not increase firm profits and provide an explanation as to when the firm should discriminate against its first‐time and repeat customers, respectively.     

同步性、隐性保险与商业银行市场约束——来自中国上市商业银行的经验证据

本文采用Demirgüc-Kunt&Huizinga(2004)的研究模型,验证了在中国上市商业银行中是否存在市场约束效应以及同步性和隐性保险对市场约束的影响。研究发现了中国上市商业银行存在市场约束的证据,表现为银行风险增加时,存款增长率降低,说明风险越大的银行越难吸收到存款;而且银行股价的同步性越低这一相关关系的敏感度越高,说明银行向市场披露的自身信息越多,市场约束的效果越明显;而政府的支持则会降低存款增长率与风险关系的敏感度,证明了隐性保险的存在会减弱存款人风险监督的激励。     

Media Coverage and the Stock Market Valuation of TARP Participating Banks‡

We examine the impact of media coverage of the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) under the Troubled Assets Relief Program on the equity market valuation of participating bank holding companies (CPP banks). We document substantial negative coverage of the CPP and its participants over the five quarters following the program's initiation. We find that the extent of negative media coverage about the CPP exerted substantial downward pressure on the stock returns of CPP banks, decreasing their valuation relative to bank holding companies not participating in the program. We show that our findings cannot be explained by differences in the banks’ financial viability at the CPP's initiation, new information about their performance being released to the market after the CPP's initiation or preceding stock returns causing the negative media coverage. Our findings highlight the importance of investor sentiment, as reflected by the tone of media coverage, in banks’ valuation during a period of high uncertainty in financial markets.     

A reexamination of the market efficiency hypothesis: Evidence from an electronic intra-day,inter-dealer FX market

Researchers acknowledge that the evidence of autocorrelation (price dependency) in daily/weekly asset returns provides no conclusive evidence against the market efficiency hypothesis since the holding period of actual speculative positions may be less than a day. Using a high frequency (up to one hundredth of a second), transaction-based, electronic foreign exchange (FX) brokerage data set, we show that dealers in this market tend to close their speculative positions in less than a minute. We provide evidence that there is a significant negative autocorrelation in the rate of return on DM/USD exchange rate. However, when we sample data at frequencies shorter than a minute, profits are infeasible for two reasons: (1) the structure of the autocorrelation pattern is not consistent enough; (2) the largest potential speculative profit derived from the autocorrelation pattern is smaller than the regulated tick size. Our results support the market efficiency hypothesis as dealers have evidently engaged potentially profitable speculation based on price dependency.     

Cross-sectional variation in the stock market reaction to bond rating changes

Previous research has found that the stock market reacts negatively to bond rating downgrades and that downgrades tend to follow periods of negative returns, indicating that at least some downgrades are partially predictable. Hypothesizing that the reaction to a downgrade depends on both the implications for cash flows and the degree of surprise, we explore how the reaction to downgrade announcements varies across bond issues. We find that the equity market reacts much more negatively to bond rating downgrades to and within the speculative bond category than to downgrades within the investment grade category. Within the speculative category, the reaction is stronger, the lower the old and new ratings are. The reaction to multiple-level downgrades is not very different from that to single-level downgrades. The market reaction is also stronger if the firm has experienced negative pre-downgrade abnormal returns. Our evidence indicates that downgrades are viewed by the market as providing information on likely future earnings before interest charges, not just likely future interest charges. It is also consistent with Billett's (1996) hypothesis that low rated debt makes a firm less attractive as a takeover target.     

Endogenous vertical structure and trade policy in an import-competing market

We examine the endogenous determination of a vertical market in an import-competing market with import tariff. We show that if firms commit to vertical organization before the government's commitment to trade policy, the home and foreign firms choose vertical separation and vertical integration, respectively, at equilibrium under Bertrand competition. Under Cournot competition, the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium entails both firms separating their retailers. Comparing profits between Bertrand competition to Cournot competition, we find that upstream manufacturer's profit can be higher under Bertrand competition with integration than under Cournot competition with separation when comparing foreign upstream manufacturer's profit.     

衍生品交易盈亏披露会影响瞬时股价吗？——基于2020年A股上市公司的分析

对2020年A股上市公司披露信息中含衍生品交易盈亏信息的数据进行多期双重差分分析，发现衍生品信息无论利好还是利空，皆存在显著负面的公告溢价。衍生品披露当日瞬时股价、3～5个交易日窗口期的累计异常收益率显著下跌，且衍生品信息不会显著影响该股票长期价值。细分披露类型发现，定期披露的衍生品信息导致的瞬时股价波动较小，且具有更显著的公告盈余漂移。     

Market Implications of the Audit Quality and Auditor Switches: Evidence from China

Independent audits enhance the credibility of corporate financial reports and assist investors to make rational decisions in the capital market. Nonetheless, the utility of the auditing function depends upon the quality of audits, which is determined by the independence and expertise of auditors. Hence, auditor choice and switch will not only affect an audit's quality, but will also influence decisions made by investors and other market participants. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how investors respond to the quality of audits and auditor switches in the Chinese context. Empirical results show that the quality of an audit and switching to a larger auditor have a positive (negative) impact on earnings response coefficients (ERCs) for firms with positive (negative) abnormal earnings. In contrast, switching to a smaller auditor has a negative (positive) impact on ERCs for firms with positive (negative) abnormal earnings. These results suggest that large auditing firms (Top 10) in China are perceived as more effective for curbing income-increased earnings management, which leads to higher (lower) ERCs for clients with positive (negative) abnormal earnings. Firms' switching to a larger auditor may signal high-quality earnings. Therefore, investors more often increase stock prices when firms have positive abnormal earnings and less often depreciate prices for negative abnormal earnings. Similarly, switching to a smaller auditor may signal lower earning quality, resulting in opposite market responses. In general, the empirical evidence suggests that audit information is valued by the capital market in China. Large auditing firms have been able to product-differentiate themselves within the Chinese stock market.     

Compensation Schemes and Labor Market Competition: Piece Rate versus Wage Rate

We investigate the choice of compensation scheme by firms. Our basic model shows that the unique equilibrium choice for profit maximizing duopsonists in a labor market is for one firm to offer a wage rate and for the other to offer a piece rate. This result arises because the firms recognize that, by offering different compensation schemes, they induce self-selection among workers, which thereby decreases the intensity of competition in the labor market. We find this asymmetry to be robust to allowing for firing, free entry, and a class of more general compensation schemes. When we broaden our model to permit firms to be differentiated in the eyes of workers (either geographically or by "other working conditions," e.g.), we find that our results are preserved when differentiation is low, but that both firms choose to offer a piece rate when differentiation is high.     

Welfare impacts of a non-profit firm in mixed commercial markets

Utilizing a model that allows for the welfare of the commercial NPO’s stakeholders directly in terms of their consumer surplus, and indirectly in terms of NPO profits, we explore the impact of changes in the NPO’s “social concern” for consumers on market efficiency. Three separate Cournot mixed market scenarios are analyzed: competition between the NPO and a private for-profit firm, competition between the NPO and a public firm, and a market scenario that includes all three firms. We find that the technical efficiency of the NPO vis-à-vis the profit maximizer is crucial in determining whether social welfare rises or falls as the NPO places more weight on their stakeholders’ surplus. In particular, if the NPO is less technically efficient than the profit maximizer or public firm, somewhat paradoxically social welfare may fall as the NPO shows a greater social concern for consumers. In other words, a movement away from pure profit maximizing behavior by a NPO may well be detrimental in these mixed commercial markets. We also show the additional sources of revenue available to a NPO may decrease the overall welfare in these mixed market situations.     

The effect of operational slack,diversification, and vertical relatedness on the stock market reaction to supply chain disruptions

This paper empirically examines whether operational slack, business diversification, geographic diversification, and vertical relatedness influence the stock market reaction to supply chain disruptions. The results are based on a sample of 307 supply chain disruptions announced by publicly traded firms during 1987–1998. Our analysis shows that firms with more slack in their supply chain experience less negative stock market reaction. The extent of business diversification has no significant effect on the stock market reaction. Firms that are more geographically diversified experience a more negative stock market reaction. We find that firms with a high degree of vertical relatedness experience a less negative stock market reaction. These results have important implications on how firms design and operate their supply chains to mitigate the negative effect of supply chain disruptions.     

提高盈利预测审计质量,规范上市公司盈利预测行为

随着我国市场经济的逐步建立,证券市场的发展、盈余预测信息已成为影响股价的一个重要因素.本文对上市公司盈利预测信息的研究,目的在于规范上市公司合理进行盈余预测、提高上市公司盈利预测信息的可靠性,为投资者进行投资决策提供依据,以促进我国证券市场的健康发展.本文从盈利预测审计的角度出发,提出强化注册会计师的审计监督,以保证上市公司盈利预测的可靠性,从而保证投资者的合法权益.     

基于扩散指数模型的房地产市场景气循环研究——以北京市为例

基于扩散指数模型构建房地产市场景气循环指标体系，采用北京市住宅市场与经济基本面的历史数据，计算不同时期北京市房地产市场的扩散指数，绘制北京市房地产市场的景气循环曲线，并根据景气循环曲线与历史数据对北京市未来房地产市场的景气情况进行预测。最后，提出在上述市场预测情况下的市场调控策略。     

担保网络影响分析师盈余预测偏差吗？

以2008—2018年沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,采用社会网络分析法考察上市公司担保网络对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现,上市公司加入担保网络会显著增加分析师盈余预测偏差,降低预测准确度,这种负面效应在双向担保、跨省融资担保、长期处于担保网络以及位于担保网络结构洞位置的上市公司中更加明显,而上市公司选择退出担保网络则有效降低了这种负面影响,提高了分析师盈余预测准确度。进一步研究发现,会计信息可比性是担保网络影响分析师盈余预测偏差的一条重要作用路径。调节效应分析结果显示,高质量的内部控制、良好的公司治理等内部治理机制与媒体监督、机构投资者治理等外部治理机制均能够有效降低担保网络上市公司对分析师盈余预测偏差的消极影响。研究结果有助于进一步梳理企业间复杂关系对资本市场信息传递效率的影响,为资本市场各方参与者有效缓解担保网络的消极影响提供了经验证据与政策方向。