IMF and economic reform in developing countries

In this paper we assess the IMF approach to economic reform in developing countries. The impact of IMF program participation on economic growth has been evaluated empirically in a cross-country literature, with little evidence of IMF programs having been successful. This suggests that a fresh approach is in order. However, the cross-country approach is unlikely to provide a sound basis for drawing clear conclusions, so we review IMF programs from a different perspective, involving a broader literature on development strategy. In particular, it is widely accepted that a common characteristic of IMF programs is a high degree of policy rigidity. This is in contrast with studies which hold that unleashing an economy's growth potential hinges on a set of well-targeted policy interventions aimed at removing country-specific binding constraints. The process of locating constraints that bind involves growth diagnostics and policy trialing. This approach maintains that not all distortions are equally important and, by extension, not all policy reforms. From this point of view, IMF programs based on a list of standard conditionalities will not accomplish much. But policy trialing is more relevant to actors and entities with a broader, and more microeconomic, focus such as national policymakers and the World Bank. It is in choices among competing projects and programs that trial and error is most likely to be necessary. Nevertheless, reforms of the IMF such as the “streamlining initiative” should start from a good understanding of the reasons for adherence to policy orthodoxy. We discuss underlying institutional and organizational reasons for policy rigidity and consider some suggested reforms.     

Developing a multiple-criteria decision analysis for green economy transition: a Canadian case study

ABSTRACT

Identifying planning strategies for the transition to a green economy is a formidable challenge. We proposed a novel multiple-criteria decision analysis model which can quantitatively identify the socio-economic and environmental impacts of various government and public policies. We applied the model to four practical scenarios in Canada for determining the optimal final demand that maximizes the country's GDP and employment while minimizing GHG emissions for small, short-term changes. As a result, the model suggested potential ways to simultaneously achieve a GDP growth of 2.5 billion CAD and creation of over 25,000 new jobs, and a saving of 2514 kt CO₂. As per the final demand, the electrification of domestic heating and transport should be more promoted. The proposed analysis tool will provide decision-makers with the ability to explore the design and effects of policy reforms, regulatory changes, and targeted public expenditure strategies, thereby overcoming barriers towards a green economy.     

De-industrialization and comparative advantage in the global value chain

We investigate the causes of de-industrialization and potential for re-industrialization using trade-linked input–output data from WIOD. By introducing a new global value chain measure of comparative advantage, we relate a sector's share in domestic final demand to that in production and separate the direct effect of trade on its income share. This method identifies the declining share of manufacturing value added in domestic final expenditures to be the main cause of de-industrialization. Differences in comparative advantage between countries do matter, especially in the case of employment shares, but have a limited impact via the direct trade effect on value added. The findings point to a peculiar paradox of industrial policy: precisely when it is successful in raising competitiveness and hence productivity growth of manufacturing, it also furthers the global decline of relative prices in manufacturing. In contrast to the national objectives of re-industrialization, effective industrial policies accelerate de-industrialization in the global economy.     

Estimating the discount rate policy reaction function of the monetary authority

This paper estimates a policy rule that explains the sign and the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) discount rate changes. It sets out a two-sided Type II Tobit model and develops a procedure for its estimation, considering the discrete and censored nature of the changes. The results suggest that the Fed has conducted discount rate policy counter-cyclically to influence output and to curb inflation, and that the Fed's response to policy indicators varies over monetary regimes. Furthermore, consistency is found between the model prediction of the discount rate change and a classification based on whether the change is technical or non-technical. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What's in new BoE boss Bailey's in-tray?

• ▀ The new BoE governor takes the job at a time when the economy is struggling to generate momentum. His first big call will be over whether the central bank should continue its divergent stance of resisting calls to loosen policy.
• ▀ With little room to support the economy with interest rate cuts, the next downturn could force the MPC to dive deeper into the use of unconventional monetary policy tools with all the uncertainties and controversies that implies.
• ▀ Governor Bailey will also need to tackle new problems, including the run-down of the BoE's balance sheet, overseeing the financial sector's future post-Brexit, and pressures to address climate change.
• ▀ But with the new governor bound by the BoE's remit, and fiscal and microeconomic policy likely to play a bigger role in stabilising the economy, the economic significance of the position should not be overstated.

     

India's Evolving Economic Model:

Abstract Over the course of the past 50 years, India has developed as a stable economy. Economic policies of the Indian government have guided and shaped India into a mixed economy. Political stability has been a significant factor in this process. The United States and European economic and political systems had a significant impact on evolution of India's economic model. Financial and economic reforms since 1991 have accelerated the pace of change toward an open market economy both in its internal operations and in its linkages with the global markets. India's economic future is now promising as it moves forward on its unique path of economic policy.     

WILLIAM HUSKISSON AND THE RHETORIC OF FREE TRADE

The British economy was wedded to protectionism at the turn of the nineteenth century, and the disruptive impact of the Napoleonic Wars served to bolster the case for duties on foreign imports. Notwithstanding this unpropitious climate, major strides were taken in the march towards freer trade in the 1820s. This article underlines William Huskisson's significance in this transition, ascribing particular importance to the manner in which he presented his economic reforms and, relatedly, his intellectual legacy in the decades after his death.     

China's One‐Child Policy: Some Unintended Consequences

This paper gives a brief overview of China's family planning policy which, although recently relaxed, still controls a large swath of the population. Unofficially known as the ‘one‐child policy’, it resulted from the social strife of the 1970s coupled with a Malthusian pessimism concerning the capability of the still largely closed and isolated Chinese economy to care for itself. We discuss the motivations for the policy, the unfortunate demographic future that it will create, and some policy reforms that can be undertaken today.     

Public-sector pay in China: 1949–2001

Despite the quantitative and qualitative significance of the public sector in China, insufficient studies have been carried out to advance our knowledge of its pay policy and practice and any changes that may have taken place in the wake of the market economy. This paper provides an overview of the three major reforms in China's public-sector pay in the last five decades and assesses its likely impact on public-sector employees' income in relation to that of workers in enterprises. It focuses on the role of the state in the pay determination process, factors influencing the wage distribution, changes in pay structure and grading systems and causes for earning differentials. It reveals a very different approach to pay determination from those more familiarly seen in the UK and indeed Europe and the US. The exploration of the conflicts and tensions characteristic of the public-sector pay system in China will enhance our understanding of the pressures and dilemmas facing different governments.     

Bogotá's Left Turn: Counter-Neoliberalization in Colombia

For the political left, decentralization has increased both the appeal and the importance of governing the city, and yet sharp constraints limit the left's transformative potential when it controls that level of government alone. Bogotá is an important case in point under the recent mayoral administration of Gustavo Petro (2012–15), a demobilized guerrilla leader who sought to implement a series of urban policy reforms that together represent one of the most substantively radical and intellectually coherent attempts to challenge neoliberalism in all of Latin America. Focusing on the four policy arenas through which Petro hoped to transform the city (environment, housing, transport, and trash collection), the article documents the veto power of the firms whose privileges he threatened, as well as the tools through which they derailed reform. In contrast to the failure of his political economy agenda, Petro was indeed able to enact a number of progressive social policy reforms precisely because they did not threaten the profitability of the city's entrenched growth machine.     

Monetary Targets and the World Economy: A Progress Report

The recent changes in the value of the dollar and the talk of an interest rate ‘war’ demonstrate again that the world finds it difficult to cope with rapid exchange rate movements. In some ways the experience - and the reactions to it - are similar to the events of 1978. As now, the world was in a recession (though on a milder scale) and there were fears that exchange rate problems would obstruct economic recovery. The main difference is that in 1978 it was the strength of the Deutschmark which caused concern whereas this time the problems are associated with the rise in the value of the dollar. In a Briefing Paper in Economic Outlook, February 1978, ‘Monetary Targets and the World Economy’ we suggested that the problem arose from inconsistencies between national monetary policies and exchange rate objectives. In general, countries dislike exchange rate changes - in either direction - and there were problems because countries would not accept the exchange rate consequences of their own or other countries' monetary policies. We estimated the required monetary policies for stable exchange rates and suggested specific national monetary targets for 1978 which would at least move the world economy towards consistent monetary policies. In this Economic Viewpoint we return to those ideas. We consider what happened in 1978 and we also revise the underlying monetary rules. More recent experience suggests that although there has been some progress towards the convergence of monetary policies there will continue to be trend changes in exchange rates. It is also clear that there will be short-term fluctuations around these trends. We believe that greater convergence of monetary policies would be desirable but failing that it is important that countries should avoid abrupt changes in monetary policy. It is also important that countries should become accustomed to exchange rate changes. They should direct monetary policy towards their objectives for inflation and should not be diverted from it by temporary or permanent changes in their exchange rates.     

China's Interest Rate Pass‐through to Commercial Banks Before and After Interest Rate Liberalisation

On 23 October 2015, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) completed the process of interest rate liberalisation. This study examines China's interest rate pass‐through to the lending rate of commercial banks before and after interest rate liberalisation. Based on data from Q3, 2007 to Q2, 2016, the study shows that the interest rate pass‐through from policy rate to lending rate, which was effective before October 2015, lost effectiveness thereafter. PBoC interventions, the ‘Impossible Trinity’ theory and institutional factors may contribute to this ineffectiveness of the policy rate pass‐through, which may also be related to the higher premium for risk required by banks and to the worsening of their financial condition. The study also offers policy advice in response to the declining effectiveness of China's interest rate pass‐through.     

THE ERRONEOUS USE OF CHINA'S POPULATION AND PER CAPITA DATA: A STRUCTURED REVIEW AND CRITICAL TEST

Hundreds of studies in economics misinterpret China's subnational population and per capita data. The most widely used population counts are of hukou registrations from each province, prefecture, county, or city rather than of the people living in each place and generating local gross domestic product. Over 220 million people have left their place of registration, while almost none had when reforms began, creating time-varying errors in estimates of per capita income of subnational units. We survey empirical articles in blue ribbon journals, in development journals, and in regional and urban economics journals that use China's subnational data. Over 80% of articles use these data erroneously; most commonly the wrong population or employment counts are used to measure the size of subnational units, and per capita data are calculated with the wrong denominator for how variables are interpreted. We provide examples of errors from each group of journals, and a critical test of one highly cited study. Specifically, we show that if hukou registrations are erroneously used to measure the local population, following existing practice, conclusions about driving forces for urban area expansion are reversed. We give recommendations for more careful use of China's subnational population and per capita data.     

China's Approach to Social Market Economics: The Chinese variant of Market Socialism Seeks to Escape from the Difficulties of Central Command Planning

Abstract . The paradigm of a social market economy provides a rational basis for resolving structural socioeconomic changes, as presently evidenced in the People's Republic of China. China's approach to socioeconomic change, labeled as “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics,” resembles a modified version of Eucken's paradigm of a social market economy.¹ The Chinese paradigm, leaning on that of Walter Eucken, provides for a “limited”free market, which not only accommodates economic growth and change, but which also makes allowance for some degree of human, especially economic freedom, and dignity. Eucken's model is based on a sound institutional and legal framework which he considered to be essential for a viable modern market economy. China's new socioeconomic program is moving the country in this direction. It takes into account people's desire for a useful and Just socioeconomic order (however defined), characterized by stable socioeconomic and political policies and by a flexible price mechanism, to enable them to live a life in dignity, free of economic deprivation.     

The Pharmacia story of entrepreneurship and as a creative technical university1 – an experiment in innovation,organizational break up and industrial renaissance

While innovative technology supply has been the focus of much neo-Schumpeterian modelling, few have addressed the critical and more resource-demanding commercializing of the same technologies. The result may have been a growth policy focused on the wrong problem. Using Competence Bloc Theory and a firm-based macro to macro approach we abandon the assumed linear relation between technology change and economic growth of such models, and demonstrate that lack of local commercialization competences is likely to block growth even though innovative technology supplies are abundant.

The break up, reorganization and part withdrawal of Pharmacia from the local Uppsala (in Sweden) economy after a series of international mergers illustrate this. Pharmacia has ‘released’ a wealth of technologies in local markets. Local commercialization competence, notably industrially competent financing has, however, not been sufficient to fill in through indigenous entrepreneurship the vacuum left by Pharmacia. Only thanks to foreign investors, attracted by Pharmacia technologies that have opted to stay for the long term, the local Uppsala economy seems to be heading for a successful future.

The Pharmacia case also demonstrates the role of advanced firms as ‘technical universities’ and the nature of an experimentally organized economy (EOE) in which business mistakes are a natural learning cost for economic development.     

Knight on Religion and Ethics As Agents of Social Change: An Essay to Commemorate the Centennial of Frank H. Knight's Birth

Abstract . A paradigm is developed in this essay based upon Frank H. Knight's thought in order to provide a foundation for analyzing contemporary moral philosophers’efforts to influence public policy. In honor of Knight's 100th birthday in 1985, the role of religious doctrine and ethics in determining social policy is examined in terms of the exegesis which could have been expected of Frank Knight. Knowledge of Knight's views on religion and ethics provides a provocative means of interpreting and evaluating moralism as a force of social change in today's world.     

C. E. Ayres's Reliance on T. H. Huxley: Did Darwin's Bulldog Bite?

In David Seckler's Thorstein Veblen and the Institutionalists, the proposition is advanced that “Ayres out-Veblens Veblen and out Deweys Dewey”. This commonly held view of the intellectual orientation of the prominent American institutional economist, Clarence Edwin Ayres, places him as an intellectual descendent of philosopher John Dewey's pragmatism, and economist Thorstein B, Veblen's institutionalist economics. Certainly such an outlook is not incorrect, but it is also not adequate if one is to achieve an understanding of Ayres. A careful check of the indexes of Ayres's major works shows that his references preponderantly go not to Dewey and to Veblen, but to Adam Smith and Charles Darwin, Moreover, it is to the latter that Ayres turned in his effort to overturn the former. However, Ayres in interpreting Darwin relied not upon Dewey and Veblen, but rather upon Thomas Henry Huxley, the British physician turned scientist, who because of his outspoken advocacy of Darwin's evolutionary biology became known as “Darwin's bulldog.”     

Income taxation when markets are incomplete

We investigate the welfare effects of proportional income taxation in a standard general equilibrium model with incomplete markets (GEI). Formally, our analysis is on the allocative effects of state-contingent income tax reforms. Tax reforms are restricted to be anonymous, publicly and truthfully announced before markets open, and they are required to result in an ex-post constrained efficient allocation. Our main result is to show that there do typically exist contingent tax reforms that are Pareto improving. These reforms, acting directly on the asset span, modify private risk-sharing opportunities. Thus, unlike most of the GEI literature, the type of policy transmission mechanism considered does not rely on second-order, relative spot price effects. Yet, the key welfare effects of our tax reforms are substantially equivalent to those induced through changes in relative spot prices, as, for example, in Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis (1986), Geanakoplos et al. (1990), or in Citanna et al. (2001). Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 58E17, 46N10, 93B29 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D52, H21, H24, H25     

The political economy of growth in Morocco

This paper is an attempt to explain the relatively low performance of the Moroccan economy during the last four decades using a political economy approach. In that period, the Moroccan society benefited from sophisticated institutions that facilitated policy coordination and commitment. But, the existing institutions hampered the participation of large segments of the population and political parties representing them in the policymaking process. Also, the centralization of administration hindered local initiatives. However, numerous and significant structural reforms have been undertaken in the 1980s and 1990s and in recent years a strategy has been adopted that combines continued economic liberalization, increased democratization, and efforts to reduce poverty and promote human development. These changes have started to bear fruit in the past few years.     

Why avoiding ‘Japanification’ could be a massive task

• ? 'Japanification risk’ is back on the agenda in the context of a slowing world economy. Japan's struggle to drag its economy out of an entrenched deflationary cycle offers a cautionary tale for other economies such as the eurozone, demonstrating the enormity of the policy effort needed.
• ? Low inflation and low growth in Japan are linked to demographic and monetary factors, against which Japan has intensified policy efforts since 2011–12. Japan can claim some success in boosting workforce participation but productivity growth has stalled while monetary policy efforts have delivered limited gains.
• ? The eurozone has avoided some of the early policy errors made by Japan and taken a number of steps to tackle ‘Japanification’ risks. But productivity growth has flagged even more than Japan's in the 1990s, and parts of the eurozone still risk sliding into deflation if the global downturn worsens.
• ? The eurozone's policy options to fight ‘Japanification', particularly at the individual country level, are more limited than was the case in Japan. Further ‘heavy lifting’ by the ECB would be required – implying downside risks for the euro and bond yields staying low, if not compressing further.