对外贸易、地方保护和中国的产业布局

本文研究发现,20世纪80年代由于新旧工业基地的轮替,地区专业化和分布的不平衡性稍有退化;而90年代地区专业化则显著加深,分布的不平衡性和集中程度明显加速。对外贸易中的地理优势显著地影响中国的产业布局,但地方保护的影响在90年代仅限于内地。传统比较优势理论在中国产业分布中的解释力是显然的,而新经济地理学的部分预测也在本文的实证中得到支持。     

对外贸易、地方保护和中国的产业布局

本文研究发现，20世纪80年代由于新旧工业基地的轮替，地区专业化和分布的不平衡性稍有退化；而90年代地区专业化则显著加深，分布的不平衡性和集中程度明显加速。对外贸易中的地理优势显著地影响中国的产业布局，但地方保护的影响在90年代仅限于内地。传统比较优势理论在中国产业分布中的解释力是显然的，而新经济地理学的部分预测也在本文的实证中得到支持。     

An analysis of China’s global industrial competitive strength based on vertical specialization

At the beginning of the 1990s, China witnessed an increase in its international competitive strength in technology-intensive and capital-intensive industries, and a decrease in strength in labor-intensive industries. This paper analyzes the effect of vertical specialization on China’s international industrial competitive strength, explores how different industries have varying reactions under its implementation, and employs theory to explain the possible causes of these reactions. It is found that vertical specialization can help to strengthen China’s global industrial competitiveness, and on that basis, some suggestions are given on how to improve that competitiveness. __________ Translated from Shijie Jingji 世界经济 (Journal of World Economy), 2006(5): 12–21     

The role of ethics and product personality in the intention to purchase organic food products: a structural equation modeling approach

The aim of the present study is to examine the role of ethical dimensions and product personality in the purchasing intention of organic food products. The Prospect method (Caprara et al. in Test Psicomet Metodol 7(3–4):113–128, 2000), which integrates the Five factors model of personality (cf. Digman in Annu Rev Psychol 41(1):417–440, 1990) and the Theory of planned behavior (Ajzen in Organ Behav Hum Decis Process, 50(2):179–211, 1991) extended to an ethical dimension, was employed, by using a Structural Equation Modeling approach. Results showed that moral norms—i.e., personal beliefs regarding what is right or wrong (Parker et al. in Br J Soc Psychol, 34(2):127–137, 1995)—can be considered the main motivator of purchasing intention, and they are, in turn, affected by subjective norms and product personality traits of Naturalness and Authenticity. Marketing implications for firms operating in the organic food industry are discussed, in their intent to shift from a “niche” market to a broader diffusion of these products.     

金融市场发展与全球失衡:基于创新与生产的垂直分工视角

在20世纪90年代中期开始的新一轮全球失衡中,以中国为代表的发展中国家成为经常项目顺差的主角。同时,大量FDI从发达国家流向发展中国家,进而形成了发达的全球生产体系。基于全球失衡的上述特点以及在Antràs和Caballero(2007)水平分工模型的基础上,通过建立一个垂直分工模型,可以从国际分工视角为全球失衡问题提供更加坚实的微观基础。同时,模型把社会生产划分为创新和生产两个环节,并指出与生产活动相比,创新活动更加依赖外部融资,因此,金融发展程度更高的国家在创新活动上具有比较优势,而金融发展程度较低的国家则在生产活动上具有比较优势。而且,在进行国际交换时,创新成果和生产成果通常反映在国际收支账户中的不同项目上,因此,基于这种国际垂直分工的创新成果和生产成果的均衡交易将引起参与分工国家经常项目的失衡。     

增长失衡与政府责任:基于社会性支出角度的分析

There exists a kind of growth imbalance in China’s current development process, which is essentially characterized by the imbalance between the nation’s wealth and the people’s welfare. This paper points out that growth imbalance results mostly from insufficient government social spending on people’s welfare. Consequently, the government should shoulder the basic responsibility for the provision of education, health and social security, quicken the transformation of government expenditure structure and increase the share of social spending, in order to improve the people’s welfare and achieve the rebalancing of growth. The increase in social spending can also promote the accumulation of human capital, which will help the conversion of economic growth pattern and the realization of sustainable and healthy economic development. Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2006, (10): 4–17     

What can we learn from the distribution of trade patterns?

This paper proposes an empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of trade specialization, using a symmetric transformation of the standard Balassa (Manch Sch Econ Soc Stud 33(2):99–123, 1965) index and the conditional density estimation methods suggested by Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996). The framework is implemented using data on the cross-sector export and import specialization of the four initial EU Cohesion countries over the last 40 years. We discuss the importance of studying both the distribution’s external shape and the intra-distribution dynamics and why it is interesting to include imports in the analysis. We find a reduction of the overall degree of export specialization in Portugal, Greece and Spain. Conversely, Ireland has the strongest export specialization and there is evidence of an increase over time. The export intra-distribution dynamics reveal persistence of the specialization status in the four countries, especially for high values of the index. In all countries, the degree of specialization is higher for exports than for imports and intra-distribution dynamics reveal more mobility of import specialization than that of exports.     

An equilibrium closure result for discontinuous games

For games with discontinuous payoffs Simon and Zame (Econometrica 58:861–872, 1990) introduced payoff indeterminacy, in the form of endogenous sharing rules, which are measurable selections of a certain payoff correspondence. Their main result concerns the existence of a mixed Nash equilibrium and an associated sharing rule. Its proof is based on a discrete approximation scheme “from within” the payoff correspondence. Here, we present a new, related closure result for games with possibly noncompact action spaces, involving a sequence of Nash equilibria. In contrast to Simon and Zame (Econometrica 58:861–872, 1990), this result can be used for more involved forms of approximation, because it contains more information about the endogenous sharing rule. With such added precision, the closure result can be used for the actual computation of endogenous sharing rules in games with discontinuous payoffs by means of successive continuous interpolations in an approximation scheme. This is demonstrated for a Bertrand type duopoly game and for a location game already considered by Simon and Zame. Moreover, the main existence result of Simon and Zame (Econometrica 58:861–872, 1990) follows in two different ways from the closure result.     

中国农产品产业内贸易现状分析

By using HS classification, the author has divided total agricultural products into 24 categories. The paper calculated the G-L intra-industry trade index, Brülhart marginal intra-industry trade index, and Thom & McDowell marginal industry trade index for each type of agricultural products during the period from 1996 to 2005 in China. The conclusion shows the overall level of agricultural intra-industry trade is relatively low, and Brülhart index indicates China’s agricultural products decades of improvement mainly from inter-industry trade, at the same time Thom & McDowell index shows that China’s agricultural intra-industry trade growth is mainly from the growth of vertical intra-industry trade. __________ Translated from Guoji maoyi wenti 国际贸易问题 (Journal of International Trade), 2008, (1): 14–20     

中国地区工业生产绩效:结构差异、制度冲击及动态表现

This paper is dedicated to probing into the dynamic performances of industrial productivity across regions of transitional China, using the panel data of provincial level. Based on the approach by Kumbhakar (2000), TFP (total factor productivity) growth is decomposed into four components. The main results are as follows. First, since 1988, the industrial TFP growth has been commonly accelerated across regions, with a rising technical change rate as the principal impetus. Second, meanwhile, technical efficiency and factors’ allocative efficiency are deteriorated with scale efficiency switching from being retrogressive to being progressive. Third, although the SOE (state-owned enterprise) reform in the late 1990s has constituted a common shock to the industrial productivity, the eastern area with relatively few SOEs suffers the least from this policy enforcement. Fourth, by exploring the sources of productivity differences, we further confirm that the institutional shock launched by SOE reform in the late 1990s is crucial for the enhancement of scale effects as well as the temporarily rapid decline of factors’ allocative efficiency; in addition, the educational level of the labor-force and the share of non-SOEs in the industrial output contribute positively to the acceleration of technical change and the improvement of allocative efficiency. The economic transition, accompanied by gradual institutional reforms, is reshaping the map of regional industrialization through various channels. Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2006, (11): 48–59     

Industrial development in the inland region of China: A case study of the motorcycle industry

Although the inland region of China has generally been left behind in economic development compared with the coastal region, the motorcycle industry in Chongqing has recorded remarkable growth due to the meteoric rise of private enterprises over the last decade. Based on panel data of enterprises, we attempt to identify the factors behind the dynamic development of this industry. We conclude that the success of the motorcycle industry in Chongqing is attributable to a combination of positive features from the Wenzhou model in the 1990s, in which industrial development is based on clustering of private enterprises, and the Sunan model in the 1980s, in which industrial development is based on the effective use of human resources recruited from existing state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Learning by collective enterprises from SOEs in Chongqing coupled with the growth of the private enterprise sector fostered cluster-based industrial development. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 818–838.     

China’s manufacturing performance from a multilateral perspective: 1980–2004

This paper examines international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry during the period of 1980–2004 from a multilateral perspective in terms of purchasing power parities, relative price levels, labor productivity and unit labor costs. The various measures of PPPs in China’s manufacturing industry are found to be approximately 3.7 RMB per international dollar in the base year 1997. Since the mid-1980s, the relative price of China’s manufacturing products has been declined and is the lowest compared with the US, UK, Germany, Japan and South Korea. The unit labor cost is found to show a declining trend with some fluctuation. The labor productivity of China’s manufacturing industry is relatively low and is found to converge with other countries since 1992. __________ Translated from Economic Research Journal (经济研究), 2005, (12) (in Chinese)     

Specialisation,localisation, and trade value in the wake of cross-border production sharing. The Central Eastern European Countries' case

We focus on five among the sectors in which most of the CEECs’ trade in middle products with EU-15 is concentrated. Over the second half of the 1990s, we observe remarkable changes in both production and trade specialization as well as a significant relocation of industries within CEECs. Using jointly trade and production data we outline co-movements in the adjustment of specialisation patterns. We also show that the redistribution of activities at the regional level reflects the relocation of industries at the global level. Finally, we try to detect the scope of fragmentation of production characterizing each industry and the ways in which CEECs are moving along the “internationally sliced-up value chain”. (JEL: F10, F14, F15)     

公平相容约束与集体行动

This paper extends the work of Zhu Xianchen and Li Yulian (2007) by introducing the fairness compatibility constraint. Our work strengthens the explanatory power of their model. Whether a collective action can be realized depends not only on the organizer and followers’ individual rationality constraints, but also on their fairness compatibility constraints. Collective actions that meet the organizer’s individual rationality constraint but do not meet his fairness compatibility constraints cannot be realized. Furthermore, free-riders play a destructive role, which should not be ignored. Translated and revised from Jingjixue Jikan 经济学 (季刊) (China Economic (Quarterly)), 2007, 6(2): 597–606     

International Integration and Growth: A Further Investigation on Developing Countries

The paper examines empirically the linkages between international integration and economic growth in a panel of 47 developing countries and 18 trade blocs over the period 1970–1989. Specifically, it attempts to identify through which channel(s) – notably, specialization according to comparative advantage and increased efficiency, exploitation of increasing returns from larger market, and technology spillovers through investment and trade–trade blocs can affect the economic growth of their member countries. The results suggest that (1) intra-bloc trade does not affect growth significantly; (2) income diversion among member countries contributes positively and significantly to growth; and (3) the size of the trade bloc does matter in the sense that the bigger is not always the better for the welfare of the member countries.     

COMPETING EXPLANATIONS OF U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION IN THE 1990s AND THEIR POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Was the consolidation of defense industry in the 1990s driven by U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) directives, or was it driven instead by the same forces that drove consolidation in many other sectors of the U.S. economy in the 1990s? To better understand the roles of DOD policy and economy‐wide forces in shaping the U.S. defense industry, we test for structural breaks in defense industry and spending data and compare our findings to those relating to other sectors and the general economy. We identify structural breaks in the defense‐related data in the early 1980s and throughout the 1990s, roughly consistent with changes in the U.S. economy, including broader merger trends. Overall, our results are more consistent with the view that economy‐wide factors drove defense industry consolidation, largely independent of the DOD policy changes that occurred early in the 1990s. (JEL E0, C2, H0)     

The impact of growth and inequality on rural poverty in China

This paper analyzes the evolution of poverty in China from the late 1980s to the late 1990s, employing a version of Shapley decomposition tailored to unit-record household survey data. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes—income growth and shifts in income distribution. Different data sets, poverty lines, poverty measures, and equivalence scales are used to examine the robustness of the results. Potential biases arising from ignoring differential regional prices and inflation are also investigated. Notwithstanding some ambiguities in the results, it is consistently found that rural poverty increased in the second half of the 1990s and adverse distributional changes are the main cause. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 694–712.     

我国城市规模分布Pareto指数测算及影响因素分析

This paper estimates the Pareto exponent of the city size (population size and economy size) distribution, all provinces, and three regions in China in 1997, 2000 and 2003 by OLS, comparatively analyzes the Pareto exponent cross section and times, and empirically analyzes the factors which impacts on the Pareto exponents of provinces. Our analyses show that the size distributions of cities in China follow the Pareto distribution and are of structural features. Variations in the value of the Pareto exponent of city population size distribution are significantly explained by industrialization, industry structure and regional transportation infrastructure, and variations in the value the Pareto exponents of city economy size distribution are significantly explained by industrialization and regional transportation infrastructure. __________ Translated from Shuliang Jingji Jishu Jingji Yanjiu 数量经济技术经济研究 (The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics), 2007, (4): 43–52     

Geographical and industrial spillovers in entry decisions across export markets

This article addresses sequential entry decisions in export markets. It focuses on externalities derived from previous export activity in countries close to those for which a potential entry decision is made (geographical spillovers) and externalities derived from previous presence of other firms in the same industry (industrial spillovers). The empirical analysis uses Spanish microdata for the period 2000–2010 in a firm decision model that also integrates country and industry characteristics. The results suggest that these two types of spillovers have a positive effect in explaining entry decisions in new export markets, though both are smaller in magnitude than the effects coming from previous presence in the same specific destination.     

Why the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components matter: A test based on a model of Austrian descent

This paper centers on the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components by considering an economy with two representative firms, one producing a necessity and another producing a luxury. This difference determines their reinvestment opportunities. Therefore, while the one applies replacement, the other adopts scrapping. However, as these capital policies lead to different service lives, the analysis confronts the issues raised by Miller (Review of Income and Wealth 29:284–296, 1982, Review of Income and Wealth 36:67–82, 1990) and deals with them by drawing on Haavelmo’s (A study in the theory of investment, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1960) suggestions regarding the aggregation of capital. Among other findings, it turns out that the simulation results are highly robust, thus demonstrating that real-world implications may be even stronger than strictly suggested by the model.