Mentor Bouniatian on cycles and equilibrium

Although Mentor Bouniatian's theory of the business cycle is no longer referred to, it used to be often cited for its emphasis on time-lags (wherein he anticipated Aftalion) and for its early use of the acceleration principle. There are, moreover, additional elements of interest: he identified the conditions for a moving equilibrium, with some traits similar to the so-called ‘Harrod-Domar model’, he introduced the exogenous/endogenous distinction in business cycle theory, he was among the pioneers of the idea that growth cannot be dissociated from cycles and crises, and he discussed aspects of the ‘fallacy of composition’ problem.This paper examines these features of Bouniatian's theory of cycles and crises (as well as some frankly unsuccessful ones), both in terms of their relationships with contemporary developments in this area of research and in terms of their internal logic and methodology and their role in Bouniatian's analytical construction. As an upshot it is argued that although Bouniatian attempted to couch his theory in terms of the marginalist toolbox, his views on cycles ranges were more akin to the tradition of heretics, for he thought of crises not as a temporary deviations from equilibrium but perceived instead equilibrium as a temporary state of affairs in a world where overcapitalization is the norm rather than an exception.     

Competitive equilibrium cycles

Sufficient conditions on the structure of technology that give rise to robust periodic cycles in stocks, outputs, and relative prices in a stationary, fully competitive economy with an infinitely lived representative agent are given. The results are first derived in the context of a general intertemporal model of accumulation that has been used in the turnpike literature. These results are then applied to a two-sector neoclassical model of production, and sufficient conditions giving rise to robust periodic cycles are obtained in terms of relative capital intensities of the two sectors.     

Maximal elements of non-binary choice functions on compact sets

We give sufficient conditions for the existence of maximal elements on compact sets for ‘contraction consistent’ (but possibly non-binary) choice functions. Our result generalizes the Bergstrom-Walker theorem on the existence of maximal elements with acyclic preference relations.     

Uniform payoff security and Nash equilibrium in compact games

We introduce a condition, uniform payoff security, for games with compact Hausdorff strategy spaces and payoffs bounded and measurable in players’ strategies. We show that if any such compact game G is uniformly payoff secure, then its mixed extension is payoff secure. We also establish that if a uniformly payoff secure compact game G has a mixed extension with reciprocally upper semicontinuous payoffs, then G has a Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies. We provide several economic examples of compact games satisfying uniform payoff security.     

Nearly compact and continuous normal form games: characterizations and equilibrium existence

Normal form games are nearly compact and continuous (NCC) if they can be understood as games played on strategy spaces that are dense subsets of the strategy spaces of larger compact games with jointly continuous payoffs. There are intrinsic algebraic, measure theoretic, functional analysis, and finite approximability characterizations of NCC games. NCC games have finitely additive equilibria, and all their finitely additive equilibria are equivalent to countably additive equilibria on metric compactifications. The equilibrium set of an NCC game depends upper hemicontinuously on the specification of the game and contains only the limits of approximate equilibria of approximate games.     

The structure of the Nash equilibrium sets of standard 2-player games

Summary. In this paper I study a class of two-player games, in which both players action sets are [0,1] and their payoff functions are continuous in joint actions and quasi-concave in own actions. I show that a no-improper-crossing condition is both necessary and sufficient for a finite subset A of to be the set of Nash equilibria of such a game.Received: 21 November 2002, Revised: 9 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C65, C72.I am grateful to an editor of the journal and an anonymous referee for their very helpful comments. I also would like to thank the seminar participants at City University of Hong Kong, Georgia State University, Northwestern University, and Rice University.     

Existence of a statistical equilibrium for an economy with endogenous offer sets

A statistical equilibrium consists of distributions over offer sets of agents that can be achieved in the greatest number of ways. Although it is known that a unique equilibrium exists when the offer sets are finite and exogenous, the general case has been an open question. This paper (1) generalizes the concept of statistical equilibrium to the case where offer sets are endogenous and not necessarily finite, (2) proves the existence of equilibrium, (3) discusses a computational algorithm to obtain the equilibrium, and (4) applies the theory to the labor market and analyzes the implication of the minimum wage policy.     

Vilfredo pareto and contemporary economics: Social equilibrium, fiscal decentralisation and economic growth

During the second decade of the twentieth century, Vilfredo Pareto’s influence on the fiscal scholarship of Guido Sensini, Gino Borgatta and others in Italy was significant. In the 1920s a unique approach to fiscal thought developed which was grounded in the Paretian notion of social equilibrium. This study highlights the main features of this approach and considers why it went into decline from the 1930s and terminated in the 1950s. The paper also points to a potential benefit from integrating Aldo Scotto’s pioneering work on fiscal decentralisation with the Paretian fiscal thought of Sensini and Borgatta as part of a modern research program on the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth. (JEL:A12, B31, H00)     

Correlated equilibrium and sunspot equilibrium

Summary We show by an example that the sunspot equilibria of a competitive economy are not equivalent to the correlated equilibria if sunspots generate transfers between (extrinsic) states of nature (through a contingent commodities market). Nevertheless, we prove that the sunspot equilibrium allocations of a standard overlapping generations economy coincide with the (strategic form) correlated equilibrium allocations of a natural market game mimicking the economy.     

Product cycles,innovation cycles,and regional economic change

The effects of technological change below the level of national and sectoral aggregations are frequently overlooked. This paper reviews the regional economic changes that result from technological change at both the firm level and in the individual plant. The related concepts of product cycles and innovation cycles provide a perspective for assessing regional and local effects. Government policies related to innovation are examined in the light of regional economic implications.     

Politico-economic models and cycles

Studies are surveyed analyzing the mutual interaction of economy and polity in an empirically testable way. A wide variety of assumptions are made concerning the behaviour of economic and political decision-makers–in particular voters and government, as well as the economic and political sectors. Representative models are discussed considering steady state equilibria and political business cycles, and empirical results are presented for the U.S., the U.K. and Germany. Finally, the potential and prospects of politico–economic modelling are discussed.     

Housing cycles and efficiency

This paper has four objectives. First, a small model of the UK housing market is constructed, including equations for house prices, housing starts, construction costs and interest rates. The model is used in an analysis of housing market cycles, employing techniques developed for the analysis of general business cycles. Second, the model is used to consider housing market efficiency. Third, the model is extended to examine the relationship between house prices and property transactions. Finally, the role of monetary policy in the generation of housing cycles and stability is discussed.     

Business cycles and schooling

It has been suggested that recessions are the appropriate time for undertaking activities that promote long-term performance (such as re-organization, human capital investments, R&D). In this paper, we study the cyclical patterns of one such activity, namely schooling. In particular, we examine the cyclicality in the school enrollment rates of various age groups in the US. The overall pattern is countercyclical. In addition, schooling seems to respond negatively to the expected real interest rate. Overall, the results seem to support the view that variation in opportunity costs associated with business cycles plays a major role in schooling decisions.     

Concave utility on finite sets

When does a preference relation on a finite set have a concave or a strictly concave utility function? We provide a complete answer. Our proof is an application of the Theorem of the Alternative, and constructs a concave utility if one exists.     

Tax effects on equilibrium locations

Using a Hotelling-type model with elastic demand functions and spatial discrimination, we show that, in contrast with previous results obtained with inelastic demand functions, neither ad valorem nor unit taxes are neutral for equilibrium locations. In fact, the higher is the tax rate the lower is the equilibrium distance between firms.     

Marshall on equilibrium and time: a reconstruction

This paper's aim is to offer a reconstruction of the Marshallian conception of equilibrium and time. Its main features are as follows. First, I argue that the hallmark of this conception is to posit an interrelationship between two equilibrium concepts — market-day and normal equilibrium. I claim that they are part and parcel and cannot be analysed separately. Second, my reconstruction gives a central role to the market period. Third, I argue that the so-called short and long-period equilibrium concepts refer to the same unique concept of normal equilibrium. Fourth, I argue that Marshall’s value theory admits the effective existence of disequilibrium states. A Marshallian disequilibrium refers to cases where market-day and normal values fail to coincide, this state of affairs going along, however, with market clearing. I also propose an alternative interpretation of Marshall's corn model wherein perfect information is considered the linchpin of achieving equilibrium. Finally, I argue that my reconstruction avoids a series of interpretative pitfalls.     

Endogenous cycles and human capital

Existing evidence shows that human capital investment is countercyclical. In a dynamic model, I show that countercyclical investment in human capital arises as a result of a parametric combination relating to preferences and technologies. This countercyclical reaction is responsible for complex dynamics in the evolution of human capital, thus initiating a self-sustained sequence of events that generate endogenous cycles.     

Skills,sunspots and cycles

This paper explores the ability of a class of one-sector, multi-input models to generate indeterminate equilibrium paths, and endogenous fluctuations, without relying on factors’ hoarding. The model presents a novel theoretical economic mechanism that supports sunspot-driven expansions without requiring upward sloping labor demand schedules. Its distinctive characteristic is that the skill composition of aggregate labor demand drives expansionary i.i.d. demand shocks. Next, the model explains the labor market dynamics from the supply side, while endogenizing the capital productivity response to changes in the aggregate labor demand composition. Last but not least, it is worth to mention that the model presents an effective shock propagation mechanism that operates into the labor market and across labor market segments through the cross elasticities of equilibrium labor demand and supplies.      

Volatility,growth and cycles

The paper investigates the factors affecting the equilibrium level of output in a panel of European countries. Output depends on factor inputs and on the technology and the efficiency with which those factors are used. Efficiency may be driven by international conditions and institutional changes such as the Single Market Programme in Europe. The technology indicators used in this study depend upon research and development and also include the level of labour efficiency which is indexed on skills data. The level of the capital stock depends upon the user cost of capital, which may depend upon risk and hence on the volatility of the economy. Recent literature suggests that real exchange rate volatility is important in determining investment and therefore has an impact on equilibrium output. A link of this form is uncovered for the European economies. If policy can reduce these volatilities then it can also raise equilibrium output.