Time-varying money demand and real balance effects

This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics. By assuming that household's money holdings and consumption preferences are not separable, we demonstrate that the interest-elasticity of demand for money is a function of the household's preference to hold real balances, the extent to which these preferences are not separable in consumption and real balances, and trend inflation. An empirical study of U.S. data revealed that there was a gradual fall in the interest elasticity of money demand of approximately one-third during the 1970s due to high trend inflation. A further decline in the interest-elasticity of the demand for money was observed in the 1980s due to the changing household preferences that emerged in response to financial innovation. These developments led to a reduction in the welfare cost of inflation that subsequently explains the rise in monetary neutrality observed in the data.     

A uniqueness proof for monetary steady state

The framework in Lagos and Wright (2005) [20] combining decentralized and centralized markets is used extensively in monetary economics. Much is known about that model, but there is a loose end: only under special assumptions about bargaining power or decentralized market preferences has it been shown that the monetary steady state is unique. For general decentralized market utility and bargaining, I prove uniqueness for generic parameters with fiat money, and for all parameters with commodity money. As a corollary, I get monotone comparative statics.     

Optimal growth with many consumers

A method is described for constructing all Pareto-optimal allocations for a dynamic economy with many heterogeneous consumers, under certainty, in which both the technology and consumer preferences are recursive but preferences need not be additively separable over time. Optimal (perfect foresight competitive equilibrium) allocations are obtained through the study of a dynamic program. For an economy with one consumption good, sufficient conditions are given for the existence of a unique interior stationary distribution of consumption and wealth. For a two-person exchange economy, sufficient conditions are given for the global asymptotic stability of the unique interior stationary point.     

Determinacy of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Heterogeneous Agents

We study the determinacy of perfect foresight equilibrium near a steady state in an overlapping generations model with production and both altruistic and non-altruistic agents having distinct utility functions. The proportion of each type of consumer is exogenously given. Our main results show that when there are positive stationary bequests, some standard assumptions on preferences and technology rule out local indeterminacy for any positive value of the proportions. In the particular case of a separable utility function for altruistic agents, we prove that the determinacy property does not depend on the size of the “infinite lived” altruistic dynasties. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C62, D91, O21, O41.     

Koopmans recursive preferences and income convergence

Stiglitz (Econometrica 37 (1969) 382) shows income convergence in a many-agent Solow growth model with integrated capital markets (ICM). The many-agent Ramsey model (MARM) without ICM also gives income convergence. With a MARM, equal discount rates, and ICM, convergence of incomes (as opposed to product per capita) cannot occur. These results depend upon fixed saving propensities (Stiglitz) or separable additive preferences (Ramsey). Non-convergence of incomes is shown when preferences are identical Koopmans separable (KS). Endogenous discount rates may violate KS. A model for that case is developed when, even under favourable assumptions, oscillations or chaotic dynamics may result.     

Consumer preferences,the demand for Divisia money,and the welfare costs of inflation

This paper uses neoclassical demand theory to calculate the welfare costs of inflation. It considers the demand interactions between money, consumption goods, and leisure, relaxes the assumption of fixed consumer preferences, and addresses the inter-related problems of estimation of money demand functions, instability of money demand relations, and monetary aggregation. It makes full use of the relevant economic theory and econometrics and generates inference in terms of long-run welfare costs of inflation that is internally consistent with the data and models used.     

Weighted congestion games with separable preferences

Players in a congestion game may differ from one another in their intrinsic preferences (e.g., the benefit they get from using a specific resource), their contribution to congestion, or both. In many cases of interest, intrinsic preferences and the negative effect of congestion are (additively or multiplicatively) separable. This paper considers the implications of separability for the existence of pure-strategy Nash equilibrium and the prospects of spontaneous convergence to equilibrium. It is shown that these properties may or may not be guaranteed, depending on the exact nature of player heterogeneity.     

Weighted congestion games with separable preferences

Players in a congestion game may differ from one another in their intrinsic preferences (e.g., the benefit they get from using a specific resource), their contribution to congestion, or both. In many cases of interest, intrinsic preferences and the negative effect of congestion are (additively or multiplicatively) separable. This paper considers the implications of separability for the existence of pure-strategy Nash equilibrium and the prospects of spontaneous convergence to equilibrium. It is shown that these properties may or may not be guaranteed, depending on the exact nature of player heterogeneity.     

SOCIAL STATUS AND THE GROWTH EFFECT OF MONEY*

It has been shown that in a standard one‐sector AK model of endogenous growth with wealth induced preferences for social status, the economy's growth rates of real output and nominal money supply are positively related when the cash in advance constraint is applied solely to the household's consumption purchases. However, a positive output growth effect of money/inflation is not consistent with the existing empirical evidence. We show that when gross investment must be financed by real money balances as well, this result is overturned, i.e. higher inflation is detrimental to economic growth, because of a dominating portfolio substitution effect.     

Endogenous buyer-seller choice and divisible money in search equilibrium

In the Lagos-Wright model [R. Lagos, R. Wright, A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis, J. Polit. Economy 113 (2005) 463-484], the quasi-linear preferences assumption is not necessary to generate simple distributions of money holdings if individuals choose endogenously to go to the search market as buyers or as sellers. The non-convex buyer-seller choice provides an incentive for gambling in lotteries, and, as a result, the value function has a linear interval. As long as this interval is the relevant one for evaluating their future utilities, individuals behave as if their preferences were quasi-linear. In the stationary equilibrium, individuals remain inside this linear interval if the money supply does not decline.     

Taxation of externalities: Direct versus Indirect

First, a model with separable utilities in the externalities is presented to analyze the impact of direct and indirect taxes on the correction of externalities that are caused by the consumption of one good. It is shown that the sign of the indirect tax is based not on the complementarity (or lack thereof) between the two taxed goods, but on the link between complementarity of the two goods for each consumer and the size of the marginal impact on his consumption on the externality. Second, a model of externality aggregate is further developed along the previous lines and alternative definitions of complementarity are considered.     

Bilateral Search and Vertical Heterogeneity

Just like perfect (frictionless) matching models, a search model is proposed that is characterized by bilateral search and vertical heterogeneity. It allows for a generally specified utility function. The equilibrium allocation is unique and exists in iterated strict dominance. The model is robust with the perfect matching model as frictions disappear. Nonetheless, the equilibrium allocations are surprisingly odd. For multiplicatively separable preferences, the distributions are partitioned endogenously. And for a wide range of preferences, matching sets are naturally disconnected.     

The possibility of using search traffic information to explore consumer product attitudes and forecast consumer preference

In recent years, many researchers have devoted their attention to using search traffic information gathered from Google Insights to carry out consumer attitude research. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of using search traffic information to analyze actual consumer attitudes regarding a product. By comparing the results of conventional survey-based attitude research with the results of search traffic information, this study reveals that search traffic information indicates consumers' level of interest regarding a product, the product attributes that they are considering, and the importance of each attribute to them. Also, it demonstrates the potential benefits of search traffic analysis, which can be useful for forecasting consumer preferences regarding products. Focusing on the Prius, a hybrid car, this study shows that search traffic information serves as an accurate indicator of consumer attitudes, and even succeeds in identifying consumers' hidden attitudes toward the Prius, which can be explained by cognitive dissonance theory. Finally, this study utilizes search traffic information to forecast changes in consumer attitudes and to develop an econometric model of consumer demand for the Prius by incorporating environmental variables such as the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) price. This study concludes that search traffic information offers new potential advantages, in that it not only overcomes the limitations imposed by the high cost of conducting surveys, in terms of money and time, but also helps to reduce the distortions caused by conscious or unconscious errors committed by survey respondents.     

Consumer expenditure,the demand for money,and the Hall hypothesis

Although a considerable amount of work has been conducted on the validity of the Hall hypothesis, as applied to consumer expenditure, there has been negligible empirical work on the Hall hypothesis as applied to the demand for money. In this paper the Hallian hypothesis is applied to consumer expenditure and the demand for money using quarterly data for six countries.     

Competitive equilibrium when preferences change over time

Summary. We show the existence of a competitive equilibrium in an economy with many consumers whose preferences may change over time. The demand correspondence of an individual consumer is determined by the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium outcomes in his intrapersonal game. For additively separable preferences with concave period utility functions that are unbounded above, this demand correspondence will satisfy the usual boundary conditions. Whenever consumers can recall their own mixed actions, this correspondence is convex-valued. This ensures the existence of a symmetric competitive equilibrium.Received: 29 July 2004, Revised: 17 November 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D51, D91, C73. Correspondence to: Thomas MariottiWe thank Michele Piccione for useful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.     

Money in the pure consumption loan model

The purpose of this paper is to show how modern techniques of Temporary competitive equilibrium analysis can be applied to models of the “pure consumption loan model” type. One considers Samuelson's simplest model where traders live two periods and where money is the only store of value. It is proved that a temporary equilibrium exists if price expectations are sufficiently independent of current prices. A stationary market equilibrium is shown to exist if there is a set of traders (i) whose total resources are greater when they are young than when they are old, (ii) who are indifferent between present and future consumption. It is proved that this existence theorem still holds if the economy is sufficiently “close” to an economy which has this property. A stationary market equilibrium is shown to be Pareto optimal if all traders hold positive cash balances. It may be inefficient if this condition is not satisfied, for some traders may then be willing to borrow, which they cannot do in this model.     

The fundamentals of Intertemporal Optimization in the Continuous Time Modelling of Consumer Behaviour

This note explains the fundamentals of intertemporal optimization for consumer behaviour modelled in continuous time when preferences are recursive as in Uzawa and Epstein. After the differential in utility and the differential in the value of assets have been defined and computed, the optimization principle is summarized and fully set out in one equation equating the former with the utility value of the latter. This equation is then shown to be equivalent to Pontryagin's maximum principle, and a close analogy is drawn between static and dynamic consumer theory.     

Mutual,non‐profit or public interest company? An evaluation of options for the ownership and control of water utilities

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate various organizational models for the ownership and control of natural monopolies – specifically the infrastructure of water and sewage provision in England and Wales. First, it summarizes recent discussion of who should own water assets in Britain. The paper notes the opportunity that has arisen for increased consumer involvement, and examines the relative merits of three models that have been suggested as alternatives: a non‐profit trust or company, a public interest company, and a consumer mutual. Five criteria are suggested for evaluating the merits of each type: its ability to safeguard the interests of the most important stakeholder, the consumer; avoid the necessity for a heavy regulatory regime; incentivize management to manage efficiently but without ‘producer capture’; raise capital relatively cheaply; and resist pressures to demutualize. The paper agrees with the recent paper in this Journal by Morse (2000) that, in theory, the consumer mutual has advantages. It draws on Hansmann’s work that suggests consumer ownership of water would be less costly than investor‐ownership, providing there are no large conflicts of interest between different types of consumer. Hansmann’s thesis is expanded to consider the likely benefits from wider member participation, and the hidden costs of not taking members into account. It then tests out whether customers would be motivated in practice to be active members, introducing a theoretical model of what motivates members of co‐operatives and mutuals to participate. The conclusions are that provided managers and board members are committed to encouraging member participation, the consumer mutual model would work well. It would need only light regulation, would avoid producer capture, and would be able to raise capital fairly easily, both from money markets and from members. It would need legislation to prevent it from being demutualized at some time in the future. However, if a participatory corporate culture cannot be guaranteed, or if there is a risk of decline of participation over time, other options such as a non‐profit trust or a public interest company would be less risky.     

Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework

The theoretical association of money supply and exchange rates with prices has been empirically established and shown to be dominant in explaining changes in price levels in India. However, post liberalisation, studies have shown price levels to be impacted by several other factors as also, weakened influence of the traditional factors established by theories. This study aims to find the determinants of price level for the period 1994–2008 using a Vector Autoregression model and test the predictive ability of the model. Our results show shorter and smaller impact of change in money supply and nominal effective exchange rate on price levels. Both money supply and nominal effective exchange rates are found to Granger-cause Consumer Price Index. But, impulse response functions show that the impact of shocks from money supply and nominal effective exchange rates on consumer prices peaks after two lags and is short-lived. Forecast error variance decomposition shows that these demand side factors contribute only 6 % of the forecast error variation in Consumer Price Index.

     

Social welfare and the unrepresentative representative consumer

If, for all prices, income distribution is optimal for a planner with a social welfare function, then aggregate demand is the same as that of a single “representative consumer” whose preferences over aggregate consumption are the same as the planner's. This paper shows that the converse is false. Aggregate demand may be the demand function of a representative consumer although the income distribution is not optimal for any social welfare function. The representative consumer may be Pareto inconsistent, preferring situation A to B when all the actual consumers prefer B to A. We give conditions under which existence of a representative consumer implies that the income distribution satisfies first order conditions for optimality. Satisfying the first order optimality conditions for an additively separable social welfare function is essentially equivalent to aggregate demand for every pair of consumers having a symmetric Slutsky matrix.