Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective

This paper introduces a regime-switching forward-looking Taylor rule to describe the monetary policy behavior and considers its estimation using a two-step MLE procedure due to Kim and Nelson (2006), Kim (2009) and Zheng and Wang (2010). By doing an empirical analysis on quarterly data for China over the period 1992–2010, our results show that the actual reactions of China's monetary policy can be well characterized by a two-regime forward-looking Taylor rule. Furthermore, it is also suggested that the interest rate policy in response to inflation and output gap is asymmetric, behaving a significant characteristic of regime-switching nonlinearity. Specifically, in the first regime the People's Bank of China targets inflation, but not focuses on the output gap; while in the second regime the central bank targets the output gap and the policy rule is not a stable framework.     

供给侧改革角度下的产业结构调整方向与目标

供给侧改革意味着中国经济发展理念的重大转变,对提升供给体系的质量和效率以及促进产业结构升级具有重要意义。文章从供给侧改革的角度分析中国现在的产业结构调整,应从产业结构升级、更新科技技术、产业之间横向结合方面着力,从根本上促进产业结构调整。     

供给侧改革视角下大学生就业竞争力提升对策研究

高等教育的规模不断扩大、大学生毕业人数越来越多,但是就业市场与人才培养的结构性矛盾突出,出现大学生就业难,企业却招不到人的困境。从大学生就业市场供给与需求这一内在逻辑出发论证了供给侧改革对于解决大学生就业问题的适切性,认为高校的供给质量和水平与大学生就业情况息息相关。然后以供给侧改革为视角分析了大学生就业问题的集中表现,问题主要在于高校层次、专业结构、人才素质与就业市场要求的失衡。最后从高校这一供给主体出发,认为高校需要找准自身发展定位,优化专业结构、提高人才供给质量,从而提高大学生就业竞争能力,实现人力资源要素配置的最优化。     

Tax policy and reform in Asian countries: Thailand''s perspective

This paper gives overviews of Thailand's tax system covering major taxes administered by the central government and the local taxes administered by the local government. Recent tax reform experiences are discussed at length starting from the introduction of value added tax (VAT) replacing the business tax to customs tariff reform. Current issues on taxation are also highlighted ranging from tax base, direct and indirect taxation, decentralization impediments. Furthermore, the government is implementing modern and cutting-edge technology in tax administration, thereby providing effective and efficient e-government services to the Thai people. This paper discusses the Roadmap for Tax Reform that would outline the framework for future direction of taxation in Thailand. Finally, the paper gives important insights on tax issues, and draws important conclusions for the future of tax reform in Thailand.     

Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional “optimal currency area” criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries’ performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of “sudden stop” episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of “current account reversal” episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb “sudden stops” and “current account reversals” shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.     

Monetary policy rules for a developing country: Evidence from Pakistan

This paper estimates forward-looking monetary policy rules to examine the interest rate setting behavior of the State Bank of Pakistan. Considering the external constraints on monetary policy, core inflation and a country-specific measure of the output gap, we demonstrate that the State Bank of Pakistan reacts to changes in inflation, the output gap and the federal funds rate.     

Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective

Emerging Asia has seen a transformation of its monetary policy environment over the past two decades. By far, the most relevant change has been the maturing of its financial systems and the growing relevance of the global financial cycle: financial inclusion has spread, financial markets have deepened and financial globalisation has linked domestic markets closer to international markets. One consequence of the maturing of the financial systems has been the weakening of the traditional case for the monetarist view of the roles of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. In addition, the maturing of the financial systems has elevated concerns of financial stability, as both a source of shocks and a responsibility of central banks. These developments have been further complicated by monetary policy spillovers from the advanced economies. All this points to the need to consider alternatives to conventional inflation targeting frameworks. This paper lays out a policy framework based on a multi-pillar monetary policy approach as a potentially attractive alternative for EM Asia. The three pillars are based on economic, financial and exchange rate stability, respectively. This framework not only offers an alternative conceptual framework but also implies institutional reforms to ensure central banks take a longer term perspective when setting policy.     

从货币传导机制看日本货币政策的失效

进入90年代以来,日本的经济就陷入了失去的十年。如果说日本80年代中后期推出的货币政策为泡沫经济的形成提供了一张温床,那么90年代以后实行的货币政策则旨在医治泡沫崩溃后给日本经济带来的顽疾。但是,90年代至今出台的一系列货币政策能否使日本的经济起死回生呢?尽管国内已有大量的文献探讨了近年来货币政策的失效,但本文从货币传导机制的角度出发,运用最新的数据,分阶段详细讨论,得出日本的货币政策由于传导机制受阻从而对经济产生的影响甚微的结论,并从货币传导机制的表象引发出日本的经济结构和经济体制等深层次的根本性问题。     

供给侧改革视角下重庆市制造业的转型升级分析

当前,重庆市制造业正面临着一系列的挑战和问题,转型升级的任务刻不容缓。在供给侧结构性改革的背景下,文章创新性地构建了一套指标体系及方法来测度重庆市制造业转型升级水平,并将其与全国平均水平和标杆省份进行纵横向对比。结果分析得出:重庆市制造业的绿色发展水平较高;在创新、对外开放及经济效益指数方面还有待改进;但制造业的结构合理性水平与广东省有较大差距,且近几年差距越来越大。文章最后提出重庆市制造业要从创新驱动、智能化、服务化等方面实现制造业转型升级。     

Rotating Slumps in a Monetary Union

In the decade since its creation in 1999, the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has experienced surprisingly large and persistent inflation differentials across member states causing substantial shifts in relative price levels. At the same time, member countries exhibited distinct non-synchronized output fluctuations, giving rise to a pattern of ‘rotating slumps’ (a term coined by Olivier Blanchard). This paper presents a stylized theoretical model of a monetary union which demonstrates how inflation differentials and relative output movements interact dynamically. A number of implications are derived from the model. In particular, national fiscal policies are shown to have an important role in containing internal macroeconomic disparities in a monetary union. An optimal fiscal policy rule is derived from the model for that purpose.     

货币政策是迎风挥舞的魔杖

今年上半年,中国宏观经济似乎又出现了2003年6月“非典”疫情结束后的偏热增长势头:投资增速偏高、生产资料价格上扬、房地产投资过快、银行信贷和货币供应量超速增加。还有一个新的     

The Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff and Monetary Policy: Evidence from a GARCH Model

This paper empirically investigates the Taylor curve volatility tradeoff in light of the stochastic behavior of the conditional variances of output and inflation. Stressing structural instability between periods before and after the 1979-1982 monetary policy regime change, I implement a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to capture the output-inflation variability tradeoff and to explore the plausible impact of a change in the federal funds rate on the two conditional volatilities. I further evaluate the impacts of anticipated and unanticipated policy actions measured by two alternative policy reaction functions—one from a vector-autoregression-based reduced-form equation and another based on the Taylor rule. In addition to showing a volatility tradeoff relationship, the empirical model reveals different magnitudes of policy effects on output and inflation volatility across the two sample periods.     

Comments on S. Edwards: “Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: a Latin American perspective”

I discuss Sebastian Edwards’ most recent paper with great pleasure. As so much of the work of this distinguished economist, this paper provides new insights on a burning issue in international economics. Here Edwards provides empirical evidence on the resilience to external shocks of countries that lack a national currency (“monetary-union” or MU countries). The paper starts by reviewing the issues and literature relevant on exchange-rate regimes, dollarization, and MU in Latin America, with an emphasis on the question if countries in the region satisfy key optimal currency area criteria. Then the paper provides extensive new evidence on economic performance in MU countries, in comparison to countries with a national currency, using a large world panel sample. Performance tests are conducted for the comparative likelihood of MU countries of sudden stops in capital flows (SS) and large current (deficit) reversals (CAR), as well as their ability to absorb terms-of-trade shocks, SS, and CAR. The results are generally negative and significant for the comparative performance of MU countries. To set the stage, I start my comments by documenting first how country selection of exchange-rate and monetary regimes is quickly evolving in the world during the last decades, discussing subsequently how economists’ views follow suit (Section 1). Then I discuss some aspects of Edwards’ paper, focusing in particular on the data and model specification (Section 2). I end with brief implications for exchange-rate and monetary regime choice in Latin America.     

结构性改革是当前改革的主要任务

从基础性改革转向结构性改革是解决改革深层次矛盾和问题的必然选择 当前,我国经济体制改革面临的深层次矛盾,主要是体制性结构的不合理。无论是作为宏观层面的政府职能改革,还是作为微观层面的国有企业改革,其体制性的结构矛盾起主要作用,并处于十分突出的     

Understanding China's grain procurement policy from a perspective of optimization

This paper develops an optimization model to analyze the policy formulation under China's dual-track grain procurement system. By capturing the redistribution objective and the urban food security objective in a political preference function, we provide some rigorous explanations of three important aspects of China's grain policies: the choice of the dual-track procurement system over the lump-sum tax scheme as a means of extracting economic surpluses from the grain sector; the suppression of the procurement price to its minimum until the mid-1990s; and the switch from taxing to subsidizing grain production at end-1996. Our findings underscore the paramount importance of the urban food security objective behind the evolution of China's grain procurement policy, including the liberalization of the system in the 2000s.