中国现代金融体系的结构、影响及前景

在经济快速增长的背景下,中国已逐步形成一个以中央银行为核心、商业银行为主体,各种银行和非银行金融机构分工协作的现代国家金融体系。运用计量分析方法和典型相关分析,研究中国现代金融体系的社会融资结构、证券市场结构以及影子银行结构,测度国家现代金融体系对实体经济各行业的影响程度。研究表明:金融机构贷款与债券市场对相关行业的促进具有一定协同作用,股票市场对第一、二产业的发展影响较小,金融业对第三产业的促进作用最大。根据目前金融体系的结构、影响,可以预见未来中国现代金融体系的发展前景将主要体现在市场化、网络化以及国际化三个方面。     

财务管理在项目管理中的重要性分析

对于企业的生产和发展而言,一些项目的开展质量对于企业的盈利具有重要影响。同时,企业对项目开展阶段的相关要求也在不断提升。为了推动企业的发展,使企业获得更高的经济效益,需要项目管理人员提升项目管理工作的质量,尤其是对财务管理质量的把控,应使其具有精益化特征,充分体现财务管理工作的价值,从而使企业获得的经济效益最大化,推动企业可持续发展。论文对财务管理在项目管理中的重要性进行论述,希望能够为有关项目管理工作提供借鉴。     

Incorporating disounted cash flow contours onto a bcg portfolio matrix using limit pricing

Little or no attempt has been made to integrate the tools of financial investment appraisal with that of corporate strategy, despite the centrality of both of these disciplines in corporate resource allocation. This paper offers one approach which sets out, through a computer model, to explore the location of DCF values on a strategic portfolio matrix. The modelling took the BCG matrix as the basis of its text together with BCG's own assumption. It was found that the resulting DCF contours suggests a different emphasis compared with BCG's investment advice based on the matrix. The authors do not pretend, however, that the model provided is an immediate, more rigorous, solution to practical strategic analysis. Nor do they argue that the BCG advice may not be appropriate under a wider set of assumptions. The model is offered as suggesting one direction in which work might be conducted in order to link financial investment appraisal with strategic analysis portfolios in order gradually to convert the very general advice usually offered by the use of such matrices to a more precise form.     

Not all trade wars are created equal

• ? When interpreting estimates of the economic impact of trade wars, the devil is in the detail. Our review of more than 30 institutions' trade war projections finds huge variation – much of which can be explained by differences in assumptions rather than differences in models' structures or specifications. Relative to estimates based on extreme financial or tariff assumptions, our main trade war scenario results are moderate and comparable with the IMF's latest analysis.
• ? In our baseline forecast, trade policy measures have a relatively limited overall impact on global growth. This is in line with recent experience: to date, direct effects from higher trade costs have been small, and policy action has acted to offset adverse impacts on confidence. But the risk of further escalation in US‐China trade tensions remains, even following the (fragile) Trump‐Xi truce agreed at the recent G20 summit.
• ? Our review finds that estimates of the impact of such an escalation range from negligible impacts to a deterioration in some countries’ economic conditions approaching that seen during the global financial crisis. Results in Oxford Economics’ “rising protectionism” scenario – from our latest Global Scenarios Service – are moderate in comparison.
• ? We also find that all estimates showing substantial economic effects from a trade war in our sample are predicated on extreme asset price or tariff moves. In some cases, tariffs are assumed to rise more than at the time of the Great Depression in the 1930s.
• ? Such differences in assumptions can largely account for the divergence in trade war impact estimates. This is illustrated in our very low probability “full‐blown global trade war” scenario – incorporating severe tariff and financial assumptions more in line with institutions like the Bank of England – which generates a deterioration in economic conditions that broadly matches extreme estimates in our sample.

     

灰关联分析在房地产开发方案评选中的应用

项目可行性研究在房地产项目开发决策中得到了广泛的应用，但目前可行性研究主要是进行项目的经济论证，忽视了项目的技术论证，即开发方案的评价。本文首先强调了开发方案评价的重要性，分析了开发方案评价时应考虑的因素，以及这些因素对提高土地利用率、降低开发投资的影响，并拟定了相应的评价指标。通过对评价问题的分析，提出运用灰色数学理论来进行开发方案的评价，并对评价指标权重的确定进行了改进，文章的最后结合具体实例予以验证。     

Doing it for themselves? Performance appraisal in project‐based organisations,the role of employees,and challenges to theory

We explore performance appraisal in project‐based organisations and provide novel insights into appraisal processes in this context. These include the central role of employees in orchestrating the appraisal process, the multiple actors that have input to appraisal including project managers, the distance between employees and their official line managers, and the weak coordinating role of human resource specialists in these systems. We draw attention to the drawbacks of current theorising on appraisal to predict and explain outcomes from appraisal systems that are not premised on stable line manager/employee dyads. Theorising based primarily on social exchange theories needs to be reconsidered in this context and new theories developed. We also question how human resource specialists can better support employees, and managers of all kinds, in their implementation roles in polyadic human resource management systems to ensure transparency, equity, and fairness of appraisal processes in a project‐based organisational context.     

土地估价机构风险评价体系研究

我国土地估价机构在激烈的市场竞争中面临着各种风险,识别和评价风险是土地估价机构实施有效风险防控策略的前提。本文在对土地估价机构风险系统分析的基础上,设计了包含财务风险、人力资源风险、评估技术创新风险、委托方信用风险、成本效率风险、激励制度风险等非系统风险和政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、市场风险、其他风险等系统风险的多层次风险体系,基于Vague集理论对风险体系的底层指标做出筛选,形成较完善的土地估价机构风险指标体系;给出了明确的风险评价指标等级划分标准,建立了土地估价机构风险模糊评价模型,实现了对土地估价机构风险较为全面和科学的分析评价。     

Interactions between financial constraints and economic growth

The financial economy and the real economy are interconnected through various, complex, and evolving transmission mechanisms, whose literary coverage is far from comprehensive. In this context, we wish to contribute to the literature on the interactions between financial constraints and economic growth. We introduce financial dynamics in the R&D-based growth literature, by bringing Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist’s (1999) informational asymmetries into Romer’s (1990) growth model. With the developed framework, our main goal is to examine if and how such asymmetries impact economic growth. We find that the overall impact of this form of financial constraints on long-term growth is negative.     

农村饮水安全工程评估评价指标体系的设计、标准和步骤

饮水安全工程是民生工程,党和国家对其高度重视,并为此投入了大量资金。但安饮工程的现状如何,完成的质量、效益、持续性如何,以及如何对典型而又复杂的农村饮水安全工程作一个全面、有效、及时的评估和评价,是一个值得探讨的问题。文章探讨通过运用科学的方法建立相应的绩效评价指标体系,对饮水安全工程这个财政支出项目进行绩效评估,以期全面了解农村饮水安全工程的落实情况,真正改善农村饮用水质量,解决广大农民的饮水安全问题,同时也让政府的管理效率和公共服务水平得到提升。     

Project Team Communication in Financial Service Innovation

We examine the role of communication during the innovation process of new financial services from an information processing perspective. A contingency framework is developed on the role of communication and its impact on new financial services success. In order to assess the unique nature of the services context of this study, this framework also depicts the moderating impact of the specific services characteristics (intangibility, inseparability, heterogeneity and perishability) on project communication during the innovation process. Project team communication is conceptualized by three types of communication: (1) intra-project communication, (2) extra-project communication involving (i) organizational liaisons, which refer to the transfer of intra-organizational communication by project members and (ii) gatekeepers of information, which refer to the transfer of extra-organizational information by customer-contact personnel. The relationship between project team communication and the reduction of innovative uncertainty on new financial service success is examined. Our contingency model implies that managers have to recognize the critical communication roles that project members and frontline employees may fulfill. The communication flows mediated by these individuals foster the uncertainty reduction during the innovation process. Moreover, financial service innovation management should conceive the service characteristics as sources of task uncertainty, as they may lower project communication effectiveness, i.e. the reduction of innovative uncertainty. Following the managerial implications of our model, we finally formulate directions for future research.     

金融发展、金融市场化与实体经济资本配置效率

在对Wurgler的资本配置效率估算模型进行修正的基础上,实证检验了我国金融发展和金融市场化水平对实体经济资本配置效率的影响,研究表明：金融市场化显著优化了我国实体经济资本的配置,而我国以银行信贷为主体的金融体系的发展虽然促进了实体经济资本配置效率的提高,但效果不明显。研究还发现：在所引入的控制变量中,经济发展水平对资本配置效率的影响显著较大。进一步分区域回归结果显示,经济越发达的地区,金融市场化程度越高,其优化作用越显著,但随着地区经济发展,经济发展水平自身对资本配置的优化作用在减弱。     

农村饮水安全工程评估评价指标体系的设计、标准和步骤

饮水安全工程是民生工程，党和国家对其高度重视，并为此投入了大量资金。但安饮工程的现状如何，完成的质量、效益、持续性如何，以及如何对典型而又复杂的农村饮水安全工程作一个全面、有效、及时的评估和评价，是一个值得探讨的问题。文章探讨通过运用科学的方法建立相应的绩效评价指标体系，对饮水安全工程这个财政支出项目进行绩效评估，以期全面了解农村饮水安全工程的落实情况，真正改善农村饮用水质量，解决广大农民的饮水案例问题，同时也让政府的管理效率和公共服务水平得到提升。     

Foreign direct investment and its impact on the Thai economy: the role of financial development

This paper examines the roles of foreign direct investment and financial development in the process of economic development using Thailand as the case study. We argue that better developed financial systems allow an economy to exploit the benefits of foreign direct investment more efficiently. The estimation draws upon an unrestricted error-correction model to avoid omitted lagged variable bias, and an instrumental variable estimator to correct for endogeneity bias. Using annual time series data from 1970 to 2004, the results show that financial development stimulates economic development whereas foreign direct investment impacts negatively on output expansion in the long run. However, an increased level of financial development enables Thailand to gain more from foreign direct investment, suggesting that the impact of foreign direct investment on output growth can be enhanced through financial development. The results are robust to different measures of financial development.      

城市轨道交通次生环境影响评价指标体系建构

城市轨道交通项目的建设给城市的经济环境、社会环境和自然环境带来极大的次生环境影响,因此有必要对城市轨道交通次生环境影响进行切合实际的综合评价.在总结城市轨道交通次生环境影响评价基本特点的基础上,构建了城市轨道交通次生环境影响评价指标体系,给出了各个评价指标的量化方法和评价标准,从多个方面论证了城市轨道交通的正面效益更多地体现在其对城市的次生环境影响中.这一结论的得出为建立和完善城市轨道交通次生环境影响评价理论,正确进行城市轨道交通项目投资决策奠定了的基础.     

金融危机对我国钢铁业的影响

文章以钢铁产业为例,分析了在金融危机的影响下,钢铁行业2008--2009年的运行态势,探讨了金融危机对我国实体经济钢铁业的影响,以及政府相应的宏观政策调控。金融危机给钢铁行业带来严重冲击的同时也为其产业调整和升级带来了难得的机遇,研究金融危机对钢铁业的影响及探讨其应对出路,对我国经济发展和制造业升级有着重大的现实意义。     

A network based fintech inclusion platform

The paper evaluates, from a sustainable finance viewpoint, a machine learning model implemented in a fintech platform, whose aim is to assign credit ratings. The aim of the model is to learn from both micro economic data and macro economic trends the credit rating of companies that ask for credit. We show that the proposed model is able to reward the companies that have better financial performances with better ratings and, therefore, a higher probability/lower cost of obtaining credit. At the same time, the model correctly takes into account the overall evolution of the economy, favoring financial inclusion for the more penalized economic sectors, particularly during crisis times. The model, its application to credit rating, and its evaluation, are illustrated with reference to more than 100,000 European companies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The results shows that, while the impact of the financial variables does not change over time, and particularly during the pandemic, the impact of sectors changes considerably, favoring financial inclusion and resilience.     

货币供应量对我国股票市场影响的实证研究

本文将货币供应量与沪深股指作为代表变量纳入货币金融系统内进行分析,旨在借鉴较为成熟的金融计量方法实证分析货币供应量对于股票价格指数的互动情况,建立适当的VAR模型以及利用VAR模型进行分析,同时对数据进行乔纳森检验(Johansen检验)和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验,并在此基础上分析货币供应量作为货币政策中介工具作用于股票市场的可控性和可测性,从而研究货币供应量与股票价格指数之间的相关关系,得出货币供应量对于股票市场的一般影响机制,指出我国货币政策的缺陷和存在的问题,提出相应的应对策略与建议。     

AHP与模糊综合评价相结合的商业房地产项目融资风险评价

项目融资作为一种重要的国际金融工具，应用与商业房地产领域，是一种全新的探索。本文采用AHP与模糊综合评价相结合的方法对商业房地产项目融资风险进行评价，建立了商业房地产项目融资风险评价指标体系，运用AHP确定各因素相对于目标层的权重，从而用模糊综合评价的方法。对风险进行综合评价。     

评估企业价值的主要财务模型应用分析——现金流量模型与经济利润模型的比较

本文从理论和实践紧密结合的角度,对评估企业价值的两种主要财务模型进行分析与比较,试图说明理论证明:用现金流量折现模型和经济利润模型计算出的企业价值是一致的;经济利润模型和现金流量折现模型各自应用专长及经济利润模型近年来受到企业价值评估师青睐的原因。希望能给企业价值评估人员提供一些新的视角。     

Impact of Islamic banking development and major macroeconomic variables on economic growth for Islamic countries: Evidence from panel smooth transition models

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development, major macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Islamic countries. Using the panel smooth transition model, the results show a positive nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development and economic growth. Moreover, the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and economic growth is asymmetric and regime-dependent. Further, by using the dynamic panel quantile model, we show that for many cases the Islamic banking variables lead economic growth across the quantiles. More specifically, foreign direct investment, oil production and inflation have a positive impact on economic growth during the normal financial development state, while government consumption, one-lag economic growth, terms of trade and financial development have a negative impact on economic growth for this state. The human capital index, education and the rule of law have an insignificant impact, regardless of the prevailing regime. The results for the separated oil-importing and oil-exporting economies are generally consistent with the combined sample regarding the Islamic banking development variables. As for the macro variables, they have a positive and significant (insignificant) effect on EG for the oil-importing (oil-exporting) economies for almost all models.