贸易与增长经验研究

一、研究回顾 要素投入增长、资源配置优化、经济结构升级、技术进步是经济增长的主要源泉.为了研究贸易的增长作用,经济学家们把目光集中在第二种源泉上,即贸易是否带来了资源的优化配置:包括国内部门间配置优化和国际间配置优化.如果存在非价格性的外部效应或要素流动障碍,部门间初始配置可能处于非帕雷托最优状态,那么部门间资源的流动和合理化将会提高全要素生产率(TFP).如果出口部门具有静态比较优势,那么资源从非出口部门流入出口部门将会提高全要素生产率进而推动国内生产总值(GDP)的增长.而贸易对增长的贡献与一国的贸易政策、经济结构、发展水平及市场效率密切相关.国际上,经济学家从贸易改革效应分析、横截面经验数据分析、时间系列数据分析进行研究.     

中国出口贸易结构影响产业结构的机制——基于贸易内生技术进步经济增长模型的实证研究

文章基于贸易内生技术进步经济增长模型,实证研究了中国1994—2010年间出口贸易结构影响产业结构的机制,发现出口贸易部门对非贸易部门技术外溢的正外部性影响促进了中国经济与产业发展,但中国各出口贸易结构部门以及整体出口贸易部门的全要素生产率水平依然较低,并由此提出通过实施贸易商品结构战略化、贸易方式结构一般化、贸易主体结构民营化以及贸易区域结构多元化来加速产业结构升级。     

基于技术进步的产业结构变迁理论

传统的产业结构变迁理论认为由于产品的需求弹性不同,需求结构变化拉动了产业结构的变迁.文章基于新增长理论和演化经济理论,认为技术进步是经济增长的根本动力:一方面,技术进步导致了经济增长,经济增长拉动了需求结构和产业结构变迁;另一方面,技术进步导致产业生产效率的提高,直接推动了产业结构的升级.在国际金融危机影响下,中国制造业遇到前所未有的困难.因此,推动我国制造业的产业升级不仅要靠经济增长造成的消费需求拉动,更重要的是建立公平竞争的市场环境,鼓励企业技术创新和管理创新.     

中国区域经济增长中的技术进步和产业结构变迁

论文根据“转换份额分析”的方法,对我国的东中西三个地区的经济增长的效应进行了分解,将技术进步和产业结构变迁从要素生产率中分解出来,度量了产业结构变迁对三个地区经济增长的贡献,并将其与技术进步的贡献相比较。实证研究表明,在改革开放以来,虽然产业结构变迁对中国经济增长的贡献一度十分显著,但是随着市场化程度的提高,产业结构变迁对经济增长的贡献呈现不断降低的趋势,逐渐让位于技术进步,即产业结构变迁所体现的市场化的力量逐步让位于技术进步的力量。     

中国区域经济增长中的技术进步和产业结构变迁

论文根据“转换份额分析”的方法,对我国的东中西三个地区的经济增长的效应进行了分解,将技术进步和产业结构变迁从要素生产率中分解出来,度量了产业结构变迁对三个地区经济增长的贡献,并将其与技术进步的贡献相比较。实证研究表明,在改革开放以来,虽然产业结构变迁对中国经济增长的贡献一度十分显著,但是随着市场化程度的提高,产业结构变迁对经济增长的贡献呈现不断降低的趋势,逐渐让位于技术进步,即产业结构变迁所体现的市场化的力量逐步让位于技术进步的力量。     

省际旅游业结构变迁中的资本生产率增长效应分析——基于Shift-Share方法的实证检验

生产要素流动是影响生产率增长的一个重要原因,本文运用Shift-Share方法实证度量了2000-2007年旅游产业结构变迁对旅游业资本生产率增长的贡献,从"结构红利"的角度解析了旅游业产业结构变迁过程中产生的发展潜力对旅游业发展的影响.计算数据显示,对大部分省份来说,旅游产业结构变迁有利于旅游业资本生产率的提升和发展,但是对另外一部分省份来说,资本要素转移的"结构红利假说"效应并不明显:与结构效应相比,旅游产业内部增长效应是资本生产率增长的主要源泉.     

差别消费权重、生产率与实际汇率:动态一般均衡模型对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的扩展

本文在可贸易品和不可贸易品在总消费中的权重以及本国可贸易品和进口品在总可贸易消费品中的权重在国家间可以有差别的假定下,通过一个两国动态一般均衡模型分析了生产率对长期实际汇率的影响,以期对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说(BSH)进行扩展。分析结果显示,本国可贸易品部门的生产率上升不一定导致本币实际升值,而外国可贸易品部门的生产率上升也不一定导致本币实际贬值;两国相对可贸易品部门的生产率通过影响贸易条件可以对实际汇率产生影响,而传统的BSH忽略了这一渠道。以人民币对美元实际汇率的经验研究显示,差别消费权重假定下生产率对实际汇率的解释能力较传统BSH有显著提高。     

出口贸易如何促进经济增长?--基于全要素生产率的实证研究

本文将出口贸易对全要素生产率的促进作用分为出口部门自身相对要素生产率的提高和出口部门对非出口部门的技术外溢两类，来考察出口贸易如何通过影响全要素生产率来促进我国经济增长。以出口内生技术进步的增长模型为基础，本文结果表明，出口贸易主要通过对非出口部门的技术外溢来促进我国经济增长，然而出口部门相对要素生产率优势对增长效应并不显著。进一步研究发现由于我国目前人力资本积累程度不高，因此导致出口贸易未能与人力资本充分结合共同促进经济增长。     

中国技术引进实效:基于进口结构与全要素生产率之间关系的实证研究

选取全要素生产率衡量技术进步,通过索洛余值法估算了我国1978-2006年的全要素生产率,其中价格指数以1978年为基期,并加入两个虚拟变量用于区分改革之初和加入WTO两个重要时期。在此基础上对全要素生产率、进口总量和进口结构进行了Johanson协整分析,研究发现,进口对技术进步的规模效应为正,而结构效应为负且影响很小,表明工业制成品与初级产品的进口对我国技术进步的影响差异不大,主要原因涉及我国的发展水平、技术水平以及发达国家的技术限出政策。     

技术创新推动产业高度化变迁和三次产业结构的演变

产业的高度化发展和合理的三次产业结构是一国或一地区经济增长和经济发展的基础。需求结构、资源供给结构、生产技术结构、对外贸易结构等是决定和影响产业高度化变迁和三次产业结构的演变的主要因素。技术创新通过影响需求结构、资源供给结构、生产技术结构、对外贸易结构来促进产业的高度化变迁和三次产业结构的演变。这一过程既是技术进步重要性日益显现的过程,也是技术创新持续发挥作用的过程。     

Efficiency and productivity analyses of Indonesian manufacturing industries

This study estimates the technical efficiencies and total factor productivity (TFP) growths in food, textile, chemical and metal products industries from 1993 to 2000 in Indonesia by using the stochastic frontier model. Furthermore, the determinants of inefficiency are also analyzed and TFP growth is decomposed into technological progress, a scale component, and efficiency growth. The results reveal that the food, textile, chemical and metal products sectors are on average 50.79%, 47.89%, 68.65% and 68.91% technically efficient, respectively. It is noted that ownership contributed to technical inefficiencies in the food sector; location and size contributed to technical inefficiencies in the textile sector, whereas size, ownership and age contributed to inefficiencies in the chemical and metal products sectors. We note that productivity in food, textile, and metal products sectors decreased at the rate of 2.73%, 0.26%, and 1.65%, respectively, but increased at a rate of 0.5% in the chemical sector. The decomposition of TFP growth indicates that the growths are driven positively by technical efficiency changes and negatively by technological progress in all four sectors.     

1992-2020年京津冀全要素生产率的估算——基于3种估计方法

基于1992—2020年京津冀3地宏观数据,利用索洛余值法、隐性变量法和数据包络分析3种方法,测算京津冀3地全要素生产率水平、增长率以及对经济增长贡献度等重要指标。结果显示：北京全要素生产率水平明显高于天津、河北;不同方法测算的全要素生产率增长率具有相同变化趋势,天津、河北两地的增长率变化趋势较一致,但与北京的增长率变化趋势不一致;京津冀区域的全要素生产率增长乏力,增长出现放缓甚至略微下降的局面;京津冀的经济增长主要来源于要素投入而非全要素生产率的提高;全要素生产率的增长,主要来源于技术进步而非效率提高。     

农业全要素生产率时间演变及区域差异研究——基于江苏省的实证分析

基于江苏省13个地级市的农业投入产出面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist方法,对江苏农业全要素生产率进行了实证分析。结果表明,2001-2014年间江苏省农业技术进步增长幅度较大,而技术效率变动呈现递减态势,农业TFP增长主要是靠技术进步推动的,且江苏农业TFP增长率及其构成存在显著的地区差异,苏南农业TFP增速明显高于苏中和苏北地区。     

基于技能偏向性技术进步的经济增长动能分解

在传统Solow增长核算框架基础上引入异质性劳动投入以及技能偏向性技术进步,从而将经济增长分解为固定资本投入增长、劳动投入增长、技能结构深化、技能偏向性技术进步、中性技术进步及效率改进等五种动能。研究发现：第一,中国经济增长主要由固定资本投入以及全要素生产率增长共同驱动,其中资本投入对经济增长年均贡献率为61.64%,全要素生产率增长的年均贡献率则为35.66%,中国区别于其他中低收入国家的发展奇迹背后正是较快的全要素生产率增长;第二,即使对于高收入国家而言,资本投入仍然是主要的经济增长动能;第三,技能结构深化以及技能偏向性技术进步是全要素生产率的主要来源,二者对中国经济增长的年均贡献率分别为32.04%和21.27%;第四,资源配置效率变化是引起全要素生产率波动的主要因素,资源配置效率下降是导致2008年后中国以及大部分高收入国家全要素生产率增速放缓的主要原因。     

Slave prices,the African slave trade,and productivity in the Caribbean, 1674–18071

We draw wide‐ranging implications about slave productivity change by making use of newly collected data on the prices paid for nearly 230,000 slaves as they arrived in the Americas from Africa between 1674 and 1807. Prices for the product that most slaves were destined to produce‐sugar‐are also available. Together the comprehensive series allow us to derive annual measures of average slave productivity and to compare productivity trends across different sectors of the Caribbean. Average productivity rose throughout the Caribbean, and the pattern of average productivity change across regions was similar, indicating an open slave market. These averages mask sharp differences in the growth of demand for slaves among regions, as reflected by their slave populations. Between 1700 and 1790 the increase in demand ranged from 90 per cent in Barbados to 600 per cent in Jamaica and Cuba; while total factor productivity overall may have doubled. The slave trade accommodated the rising demand. It also served to offset population attrition among the slaves.     

Innovation and Productivity Advances in British Agriculture: 1620–1850

Theory, historiography, and empirical evidence suggest that agriculture is the key to economic development. This article examines the extent to which productivity advances in British agriculture during the period 1620–1850 were driven by technological progress. Measuring technology by patents and new book titles on agricultural methods, the results are consistent with endogenous growth theory, indicating that technological progress has played a significant role in agricultural productivity advances.     

Productivity and economic growth in East Asia: innovation, efficiency and accumulation

This paper uses a varying coefficients frontier production function model to examine the sources of growth between 1987 and 1993 in four East Asian economies—Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Using data for 20 manufacturing sectors at the three-digit SIC level, this study provides the first comprehensive examination of sources of growth that allows one to decompose total factor productivity growth, separating out technical efficiency changes (TECs) from technological progress (TP). We find that while there is ample evidence of the importance of increasing inputs in growth, and there is some support for technical efficiency change, or catching up to the frontier over this period, there is weak or even negative evidence for the role of technological progress, measured as a shift in the estimated production frontier.     

Measuring Green Productivity Growth for China's Manufacturing Sectors: 1991–2000*

Over the past two decades, China has sustained rapid economic growth of 8–10 percent, part of which is attributed to the positive total factor productivity (TFP) growth. However, this extraordinary economic performance has been accompanied by severe environmental pollution and associated health damage. The conventional TFP method is biased in interpreting the progress of technology change because it does not consider non‐marketable residues, such as environmental pollution, and, hence, efficiency improvements in terms of pollution abatement technology and environmentally friendly management are ignored. This bias might direct our attention to less efficient use of environmental friendly abatement technologies or send wrong signals to policy‐makers. To address this issue, the present paper applies a modified welfare‐based green TFP approach, treating environmental damage as non‐desirable (negative) residual output. Therefore, environmental efficiency is taken into account to accurately interpret technological progress from a social welfare point of view. Based on a national time‐series input–output table, historical capital and labor input data for China and sectoral level air pollution emission data from 1991 to 2000, the empirical results suggest that with increasingly stringent environmental regulations, many pollution intensive sectors, such as electricity, primary metal and chemical industries, improved their environmental efficiency in the late 1990s. However, because of the weak environmental regulations in construction and transportation, and in sectors primarily composed of small private or township and village industrial enterprises, firms within these industries contributed to increasing environmental degradation.     

Total factor productivity of Korean manufacturing industries: Comparison of competing models with firm-level data

This paper presents the parametric estimation of the rates of technical change and total factor productivity (TFP) growth of 7462 Korean manufacturing firms over the period 1987–2007. Two alternative formulations of technical change measured by the time trend and the general index approaches are estimated with panel data models assuming flexible functional forms. Several extensions of each approach are also considered and their benefits and limitations are discussed. In addition to making estimates of the TFP growth and its decomposition, the paper compares the parametric TFP growth measure with the non-parametric Solow residual serving as a benchmark. Several hypotheses related to technology level, firm sizes, industrial sectors, skill biased technological change and macroeconomic and industrial policies are tested to explain the growth patterns and heterogeneity in technical change, input biases and TFP growth rates. Using second regression analysis, the paper explores the determinants of TFP growth and their policy implications.     

脱实向虚、企业家劳动异质与供给侧结构性改革

融合劳动价值论和新熊彼特增长理论,考虑需求结构升级、企业家劳动异质、经济增长导向三大假设,构建多部门新熊彼特增长模型,并运用31个省份1993—2018年的面板数据进行实证分析,发现“脱实向虚”对经济增长的影响机理是:“脱实向虚”引致企业家创新性劳动减少,生产率参数受阻,经济增长率下降。这使得新古典框架下“从资本向全要素生产率升级的创新性劳动偏向型道路”可能转向“从资本向投机演变的投机性交易劳动偏向型道路”,出现供给侧结构性失衡。只有优先解决“脱实向虚”带来的供给侧结构性失衡,才能回归供给侧的正常资源配置结构,因此,中国供给侧结构性改革的路径不能简单仿效西方进行管制放松或自由化,而应先运用政府之手,构建现代化经济体系,将投机性交易劳动关进“笼子”;进而运用市场之手,优化资源配置,释放创新性劳动的活力。