债务期限结构、流动性与公共债务管理

本文研究中国公共债务期限结构管理如何实现中央和地方两级政府债务融资效率性与稳定性的统一。我们的理论模型证明,当前地方政府融资平台和一些具有准政府性质的国有经济部门的短期债务融资在未来发生流动性冲击时会导致资产降价销售和负的社会外部性。基于资产组合理论和比较优势原理,我们提出中央和地方债务融资的利率互换方式以及债务期限结构优化管理的基本原则,并且对地方政府不同融资模式的经济效应和治理效应进行了简要的比较分析。     

Public Debt,Productive Public Spending and Endogenous Growth

We analyse the effects of public debt in a basic endogenous growth model with productive public spending. We demonstrate that a discretionary policy in general violates the intertemporal government budget constraint along a balanced growth path. A balanced government budget gives a unique saddle point stable growth path. With a rule‐based policy, two saddle point stable balanced growth paths can occur, depending on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of consumption and on the primary surplus policy. Higher debt goes along with smaller long‐run growth and we derive a condition such that a deficit‐financed increase in public spending raises the growth rate.     

Public Debt, Migration, and Shortsighted Politicians

We analyze a model where local public debt levels are set by politicians who are chosen in local elections. Migration causes an externality across districts, and leads to overaccumulation of local public debt. Since debt is a strategic substitute, the median voters in each district prefer shortsighted political leaders who “borrow and spend,” thereby exacerbating the problem of overaccumulation of local public debt.     

国债的性质与国债发行的转变

与现代资本市场发展的内在要求相比,中国的国债发行是很不规范的.本文从准确认识国债的性质出发,对我国今后的国债发行必须实现的三个转变进行了深入系统的分析,提出转变国债发行对象、转变国债发行品种、财政部门自设国债发行机构的观点.     

Capital Controls,Public Debt and Currency Crises

This paper examines the possibility that, contrary to conventional wisdom, capital controls accelerate currency crises. Theoretical analysis shows that capital controls can constitute an additional burden on government budget and so bring forward the onset of crises. Since perfect capital mobility does not occur, domestic interest rates may deviate from world interest rates. High interest rates under capital controls create an additional cost of servicing outstanding domestic public debt, precipitating crises. Even though the government can delay crises with capital controls, welfare may be less than in a situation with perfect capital mobility.     

Environmental Quality,Public Debt and Economic Development

This article analyzes the consequences on capital accumulation and environmental quality of environmental policies financed by public debt. A public sector of pollution abatement is financed by a tax or by public debt. We show that if the initial capital stock is high enough, the economy monotonically converges to a long-run steady state. On the contrary, when the initial capital stock is low, the economy is relegated to an environmental poverty trap. We also explore the implications of public policies on the trap and on the long-run stable steady state. In particular, we find that government should decrease debt and increase pollution abatement to promote capital accumulation and environmental quality at the stable long-run steady state. Finally, a welfare analysis shows that there exists a level of public debt that allows a long run steady state to be optimal.     

从国债结构管理看国债成本控制

随着我国国债规模的不断增加，控制国债成本问题也日益为人们所关注。本基于国债结构管理的视角，针对我国国债发展的实际情况，从收益率、流动性溢价和风险溢价等三个方面，对如何选择不同品种的债券进行了理论分析，并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Industrial Relations Reform in Australia: Causes, Consequences and Prospects

This article reviews Australia's experience with industrial relations reform since the late 1980s. The key conclusion is that claims made about both the costs and benefits of reform have been exaggerated.     

公共债务与经济增长

本文实证考察了如何使我国的公共债务对经济的促进作用最大化问题,并研究了政府债务对私人与公共资本投资的影响。由此建议我国的债务管理目标,应该是使得公共债务规模在长期中收敛并稳定在最优债务水平上,且在此规模下的公共债务与其他重要宏观变量处于一个长期稳定的关系,从而实现公共债务对经济增长在长期中最佳的促进作用。     

乡镇债务的现状、体制成因及其治理——基于税费改革后对5省50个乡镇的调查

该文利用50个乡镇的抽样调查数据,分析了税费改革后中国乡镇债务的规模、借贷来源和具体成因等现状特征。研究表明,乡镇负债普遍存在且债务沉重,对农村经济社会的影响不容忽视。在此基础上,文章探讨了乡镇债务形成的深层次体制性原因,并给出了乡镇债务治理的对策建议。     

The Budget Deficit, Public Debt, and Endogenous Growth

This paper analyzes the effects of public debt on endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model. The government fixes the budget deficit ratio. If the deficit ratio stays below a critical level, then there are two steady states where capital, output, and public debt grow at the same constant rate. An increase in the deficit ratio reduces the growth rate. If the deficit ratio exceeds the critical level, then there is no steady state. Capital growth declines continuously, and capital is driven down to zero in finite time.     

Economic Growth,Public Debt and Welfare: Comparing Three Budgetary Rules

Abstract. We present an endogenous growth model with externalities of capital and elastic labor supply where we allow for public debt and welfare‐enhancing public spending. We analyze different debt policies as regards convergence to a balanced growth path and their effects on long‐run growth and welfare. Three budgetary rules are considered: the balanced budget rule, a budgetary rule where debt grows in the long run but at a rate lower than the balanced growth rate and a rule where public debt grows at the same rate as all other economic variables but where it guarantees that the intertemporal budget constraint is fulfilled.     

Fiscal Policy,Public Debt and the World Crisis

This study summarizes a theory of the origin of the current world economic crisis and the role of fiscal policy in mitigating its effect. The perspective is dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis. Overall, the model analysis suggests a strong case for fiscal policy if the monetary authority is unable/unwilling to close the output gap. This remains the case, even when explicitly taking into account public debt dynamics.     

Overaccumulation,Public Debt and the Importance of Land

In recent contributions, von Weizsäcker (2014) and Summers (2014) maintain that mature economies accumulate too much capital. They suggest large and lasting public deficits as a remedy. This study argues that overaccumulation cannot occur in an economy with land. It presents novel data of aggregate land values, analyzes the issue within a stochastic framework and conducts an empirical test of overaccumulation.     

Keynes,Employment Policy and the Question of Public Debt

This article provides a simple formalization of income–expenditure equilibrium in accordance with the Principle of Effective Demand, but augmented to explicitly incorporate public debt. This is utilized to explore the conditions required for simultaneous achievement of full-employment growth and a sustainable public debt trajectory—the latter understood as stabilization of the ratio of public debt to aggregate income, at some desired level. In the spirit of Keynes's economics, demand-led, full-employment growth, driven by government spending, is reconciled with public debt sustainability so understood. The policy implications, illustrative of Keynes's policy views, are then drawn out.     

Institutional Quality and Public Debt Accumulation: An Empirical Analysis

The question of public debt management for both developed and developing economies has generated an enormous amount of political as well as academic interest. This study examines how governance affects public debt accumulation in the MENA countries during the 1996–2015 period. The six Worldwide Governance indicators (voice and accountability, political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption) were used to measure the quality of governance in these countries. The results show that only three governance indicators support well the hypothesis that poor governance leads to higher accumulation of MENA public debt. Moreover, the estimates suggest a significant indirect impact of bad governance operating via decreased GDP growth. These findings have important implications for policy makers of these countries, which are currently facing major fiscal and external imbalances due to the high cost of war and terrorist attacks, low oil prices and a decline in trade. Sound public debt management represents an urgent task especially that public debt management problems often find their origins in the lack of attention paid by policymakers to the costs of bad governance and weak macroeconomic management.     

Public Debt and Generational Balance in Austria

Based on Austria's fiscal stance in 1995, wecompute the generational accounts for currently living as well as future generations.The results reveal the existence of an intergenerational imbalance in favor of currentlyliving generations. Total public sector liabilities may be more than five times as high asthe officially recorded level of public debt. Without any action, future generations would facelife-time net taxes that are about 65 percent higher than the tax burden of a current newborn.If the government could fully and permanently retain the expenditure cutting andrevenue raising effects of the 1996 fiscal consolidation package and the 1997 pension reform,then it might be able to significantly reduce the intergenerational liabilities. However,enacting both the recent tax reform 2000 and the reform of the family support scheme wouldincrease again the fiscal imbalance and intergenerational bias of fiscal policy in Austria.     

国债负担的极限及其相关问题

本首先介绍并分析了我国最近几年财政收支，国债负担等概况。其次，使用数学方法计算了我国公共债务占GDP比例在经济增长过程中的极限，并对照美国最近几十年的相关数据进行了比较，结论是我国债务占GDP的比例并不高，本第三部分讨论了债务负担，利息率与经济增长率的关系，通货膨胀，挤出效应等问题。     

地方政府性债务风险的成因与化解对策

自20世纪90年代中期以来,由于经济社会发展需要和财政体制等原因,地方政府性债务不断增加,近年来急剧膨胀,地方政府性债务已成为影响我国经济社会稳定发展的热点问题。文章分析了地方政府性债务快速增长的原因和潜在风险,提出了化解地方政府性债务风险的对策建议。     

Optimal Monetary Policy, Taxes, and Public Debt in an Intertemporal Equilibrium

This article is devoted to a study of the optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the framework of an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints. We first characterize the intertemporal equilibrium. Then we show how to decentralize the optimal growth path using available policy instruments (i.e., labor income and capital taxes, public debt, money supply). Between the four instruments: wages and capital taxes, debt and monetary policy, one is redundant among the three last which implies that the Friedman Rule is only a special case.