The Optimal Perception of Inflation Persistence is Zero

This study shows that, in an economy with inflation persistence, it is always welfare improving for a central bank that operates under discretion to behave as if there were no inflation persistence. Under reasonable assumptions about inflation persistence, all of the inefficiency associated with discretionary policymaking is then removed.     

利率、税率和通货膨胀率的变动对我国资本市场的影响

股市是宏观经济的晴雨表，国民经济的宏观走势对证券市场有着非常重要的影响。但是在我国，由于金融工具缺乏创新，股市又主要受政策因素的影响，所以利率、税率、通货膨胀率这些宏观经济参数的变动对证券市场走势的影响并不明显，有些影响甚至是相反的。本文主要分析了宏观经济参数的变动对我国证券市场走势的影响，以及造成这些影响的原因。     

利率、汇率、税率和通货膨胀率的变动对证券市场的影响

证券市场是国民经济的重要组成部分,国民经济的宏观走势对证券市场有着非常重要的影响,在证券投资领域中,宏观经济形势不仅对投资对象有深刻影响,而且证券业本身的生存,发展和繁荣也与宏观经济因素息息相关,因此,在进行证券投资分析时,首先要将其置于宏观经济运行的大背景之中,在确定基本面的影响之后才能展开有关的技术分析。     

The Optimal Inflation Tax

We determine the second best rule for the inflation tax in monetary general equilibrium models where money is dominated in rate of return. The results in the literature are ambiguous and inconsistent across different monetary environments. We derive and compare the optimal inflation tax solutions across the different environments and find that Friedman's policy recommendation of a zero nominal interest rate is the right one.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E31, E41, E58, E62.     

The Steady Inflation Rate of Economic Growth

This paper considers the existence of a path of GDP corresponding to steady inflation in the prices of domestic goods. We estimate the steady inflation rate of growth, denoted the SIRG, at a little over 4 per cent p.a. in the post-float period in Australia. Changes in inflation are modelled as a nonlinear combination of growth and changes, in import price inflation. Because import price inflation is more volatile than overall inflation, policy that targets overall inflation may require growth to fluctuate considerably, whereas growth can be steady if the target is steady inflation of domestic goods' prices.     

中国通货膨胀率及其波动关系分析

有关通货膨胀率和通货膨胀率波动影响关系,存在F riedm an-B a ll和Cuk ierm an-M e ltzer两种假说,即存在通货膨胀率及其波动的相互影响关系。使用GARCH和TGARCH模型,选择中国1993~2004年月度通货膨胀率数据,检验结果表明F riedm an-B a ll假说成立,稳健的货币政策对经济发展有积极作用。     

The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the UK

The United Kingdom is a highly open economy, and has a monetary policy strategy of targeting inflation in consumer prices. In this paper, we look at the evidence from the UK on inflation behaviour, and examine the propositions from several theoretical models about inflation dynamics in an open economy, focusing in particular on the hypothesized connections between the exchange rate and consumer price inflation. Theoretical open‐economy macroeconomic models ‘cover the waterfront’ on this issue, ranging from ‘exchange rate disconnect’ to a rigid link between nominal exchange rate changes and inflation. We estimate on UK data the open‐economy Phillips curves implied by the alternative explanations. We argue that, of the alternatives considered, only a model where imports are modelled as an intermediate good, as in McCallum and Nelson (1999) , provides a reasonable match with the data. Unlike the standard model, in which imports are treated as a final consumer good, the intermediate‐goods specification provides support for a policy of CPI inflation targeting.     

资本市场通胀理论与宏观调控

中国资本市场近年来快速膨胀又大幅调整,不断流出、流入这个市场的资金给宏观调控带来了前所未有的考验.通过分析Minsky的资本市场通胀理论以及对货币政策有效性的影响,对如何宏观调控中国资本市场和防止资本市场的大起大落提出了建议和意见.     

中国经济的最优通货膨胀

制定一个适宜的长期通胀目标对于提高社会经济福利具有重要意义。本文构建了一个代表性的DSGE模型,用贝叶斯方法对模型进行了参数估计,并估算了在各种不同的货币政策规则下,中国经济所应选择的最优通胀目标。研究结果表明从短期看3%左右的通胀目标是最优的,而从中长期看低通胀目标(0.5%—1%)是最优的。本文的政策建议是盯住低通胀目标有利于长期社会经济福利,管住货币,看紧通胀仍应是中国央行货币政策制定的首要考量。     

The Optimal Asymptotic Income Tax Rate

This paper shows that a policy maker needs only two types of information to set the optimal income tax rate at the top: a measure of labor supply elasticity and the shape of skills distribution. We find that the asymptotic tax rate is not affected by the degree of inequality aversion as long as the marginal utility of consumption converges to zero. By using empirically plausible estimates for the compensated labor supply elasticity and the shape of skills distribution, we find that the optimal marginal tax rate at the top should be between 33% and 60%, which is in line with the existing rates in the real world.     

Inflation Rate Variability and the Phillips Curve

This paper studies the relationship between inflation and unemployment by focusing on the effect of inflation rate uncertainty on real wages, employment and output. The effect of inflation on employment is shown to depend on the relationship between the mean rate of inflation and the variability of its forecasts. This can explain why the Phillips curve is negatively slopped in some periods and undetermined or positively slopped in others.     

Targeting the Exchange Rate Under Inflation*

The purpose of this paper is to implement empirically a variant of the new theory of exchange-rate targeting, suitable for high-inflation, small, open economies. We formulate an expectations-induced relationship between the exchange rate and the fundamental, subject to random shocks and target-zone constraints on rates of depreciation. the empirical analysis provides estimates for the key parameters of the exchange-rate dynamic equation, and thereby identifies the unique roles played by policy variables and market fundamentals in foreign-exchange markets.     

资本流动、货币政策与通货膨胀动态

本文建立了一个汇率对资本流动具有有限弹性的新开放宏观经济学模型.考虑到资本流动对供给面的影响,浮动汇率制度不再能完全隔离国外冲击,但是资本开放确实有助于降低国内冲击带来的经济波动.这为全球大温和提供了另一种解释.另外,本文的分析发现,一定程度的汇率干预在稳定国内冲击产生的经济波动方面比浮动汇率更优.     

上市公司资本结构优化

企业通过向公众发行股票成为上市公司后,为其今后的进一步发展,选择多种方式筹集长期资本奠定了基础,融资方式的多样化和便利性正是企业追求成为上市公司的一种主要动因,也是上市公司较非上市公司的一大优势。现代财务理论认为,融资方式决定公司的资本结构,因此上市公司能够从优化结构出发选择能降低资本成本,或是较其他融资方式而言,加权资本成本是最低的融资方式。     

Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Mexico

The paper presents a version of the exchange-rate-regime model of inflation. Quarterly data from Mexico from 1946 to 1995 are used to estimate and test a simultaneous-equation model for wage inflation, price inflation and industrial production, taking account of the Lucas critique and the statistical properties of the data. The main finding is that, after the fall of the fixed-exchange-rate regime in 1976, there was a Barro–Gordon type inflation bias owing to the inability of policymakers to commit to low inflation. There is no significant evidence of political business cycles in inflation.     

不同视角下中国通货膨胀率测度比较研究

对不同视角下通货膨胀率测度方法实证分析,发现不同视角测度结果存在差异,每种测度有其合理之处,也存在缺陷。因此针对中国当前的经济形势,应借鉴国际先进的测度通货膨胀率方法,设计出科学的适合中国国情的通货膨胀率测度方法。     

The Optimality of a Zero Inflation Rate with Menu Costs: Australia

This paper juxtaposes the policy trend towards a zero inflation rate against the theoretical standard of optimal deflation at the real interest rate. It extends an example monetary economy to include a simple form of nominal adjustment costs and calibrates the model with recent evidence on Australian money demand. There is a critical value that the calibrated parameter for menu costs must exceed in order for a zero inflation rate to be optimal. An inflation rate of –2 per cent to 0 per cent is found to be optimal. The quantitative results, of whether inflation-adjustment costs imply a zero inflation rate policy for Australia, are tempered by the abstraction of the model and its sensitivity to parameters. Qualitatively, the paper shows the effects of changes in the adjustment cost function and in the structural parameters.     

通货膨胀率周期波动与非线性动态调整

本文运用MRSTAR模型研究我国通货膨胀率的周期阶段划分、通胀率周期波动的非线性和非对称性动态特征,通胀率不同阶段相互转移的路径及其内在机理。实证研究表明,我国通货膨胀率波动可以划分为通货紧缩、通缩恢复、温和通胀以及严重通胀四个阶段,通胀率波动不同阶段的划分不仅依赖于通胀率的水平,也依赖于通胀率的增加量;在一个波动周期内,通胀率不同阶段的典型转移路径为:通货紧缩→温和通胀→严重通胀→温和通胀→通货紧缩;我国通货紧缩与温和通胀持续时间较长,而严重通胀持续时间很短;冲击对通胀率系统不具有持久性影响,正向冲击与负向冲击的影响具有非对称特征。     

Inflation and the Exchange Rate: The Role of Aggregate Demand Elasticity

This paper examines the effect of aggregate demand elasticity on the exchange rate when inflation occurs. We discover that both the source of the inflation, whether demand-pull or cost-push, and the elasticity of aggregate demand with respect to the price level, are of consequence for the exchange rate. We obtain two primary conclusions. First, the effect on the exchange rate of cost push inflation is ambiguous and is partially determined by the price level elasticity of aggregate demand. In particular, and assuming that the two examined countries have equivalent aggregate supply elasticities, we conclude that the nation with the less elastic aggregate demand function will see its currency appreciate relative to the other. Second, demand-pull inflation results in an unambiguous increase in the exchange rate but the size of that increase is partially a function of aggregate demand elasticity. Assuming again that two countries have equivalent aggregate supply elasticities, that country with the more elastic aggregate demand will experience currency appreciation.     

汇率变动对中国通货膨胀影响的实证研究

汇率变动对通货膨胀的影响一直是经济学家与政策制定者关注的焦点。人民币名义有效汇率对物价水平的降低作用远低于人民币升值预期上涨的程度,而人民币升值在一定程度上强化了升值预期。因此,中央银行不能忽视人民币升值所带来的汇率升值预期效应,要抑制通货膨胀,稳定汇率,关键是稳定人民币汇率的预期。