Persistence Characteristics of Tourism Arrivals to Australia

This paper examines the degree of persistence in international monthly arrivals to Australia by using data disaggregated by tourism‐source countries. We employ two competing models, which are very general in the sense that they include (seasonal and non‐seasonal) unit roots as particular cases of interest. The first model is based on a long‐memory process in the non‐seasonal part of the series along with a short‐memory autoregressive (AR) seasonal structure. The second model is based on a long‐memory process for the seasonal structure of the series, the short‐term evolution being described through a non‐seasonal AR(1) process. Results based on the residuals and forecasting assessment indicate that the second model is preferable in terms of fitting the data. We provide persistence ranking of all countries included in the study and discuss the managerial implications of the main findings. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Corruption and Tourism: An Empirical Investigation in a Non‐linear Framework

This article investigates the effect of corruption on tourism demand for a panel of countries during 1999–2009 by using panel least square and fixed effects regressions. Prior research has considered only the linear effects of corruption on tourism. We examine the relationship between corruption and tourism in a non‐linear framework after controlling for economic and heritage factors. The findings suggest that corruption has a significant effect on tourism demand and that this effect is non‐linear. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism Demand Forecasting with Neural Network Models: Different Ways of Treating Information

This paper aims to compare the performance of three different artificial neural network techniques for tourist demand forecasting: a multi‐layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We find that multi‐layer perceptron and radial basis function models outperform Elman networks. We repeated the experiment assuming different topologies regarding the number of lags used for concatenation so as to evaluate the effect of the memory on the forecasting results. We find that for higher memories, the forecasting performance obtained for longer horizons improves, suggesting the importance of increasing the dimensionality for long‐term forecasting. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模糊神经网络非线性组合预测在铁路货运量预测中的应用

准确的铁路货运量预测关系到铁路运输的发展,为此提出模糊神经网络非线性组合预测模型,应用三次指数预测模型、灰色理论预测模型、多元回归预测模型的预测值作为模糊神经网络的测试样本数据库,输出样本为铁路货运量,并采用全局优化的粒子群算法优化模糊神经网络的参数。仿真结果表明该模型能够取得比单项预测模型更高的精度。     

A study of the non‐economic determinants in tourism demand

Traditionally, many studies have attempted to use economic demand models. This paper stresses on the influence of non‐economic factors on tourism demand. Some researchers have suggested that tourists from different origins have various cultural and nationalistic backgrounds, and they may interpret visual imagery and experiences differently. Aligning with this suggestion, we have investigated different underlying factors of tourism demand from four continents (Asia, the Americas, Europe and Oceania). Statistical data are collected from international organisations and 135 countries were covered. Our results showed that there are differences and similarities among the factors in determining the tourism demand. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining the Effects of Tourism Impacts on Satisfaction with Tourism between Native and Non‐native Residents

By using a sample of residents in Huangshan, China, this study examined whether tourism impacts affect the overall satisfaction of native and non‐native residents in different ways. Results of multiple‐group analysis revealed significant differences between the two groups regarding the effects of environmental degradation and loss of traditions and norms. Specifically, environmental degradation negatively affects non‐native residents' satisfaction but does not affect native residents' satisfaction. Loss of traditions and norms has a negative effect on native residents' satisfaction but has a positive effect on non‐native residents' satisfaction. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non‐participation of Domestic Tourism: Analyzing the Influence of Discouraging Factors

This study analyzes the factors that discourage non‐tourists' participation in domestic tourism. Data were collected in 15 cities in China and analyzed using a comparative analysis and non‐parametric ridit analysis. The findings indicate that (i) non‐tourists have low internal travel motivation and attitude and are more likely to be under 25 or above 55 years old, less educated, less healthy, with small child(ren) and lower income; (ii) non‐tourists consider less on destination environment and attraction, but focus on price and travel expenses when making a travel decision and destination choice; and (iii) economic and leisure time are their main situational travel constrains. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A case study: The impact of low-cost carriers on inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia

This study investigates the impact of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on Saudi Arabia's tourism demand. It also provides an understanding of the relationship between air transport development and tourism development in the Gulf region. The Box–Jenkins SARIMA-X models were employed to model and forecast international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia, using monthly international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia from July 2010 to December 2015. The forecasting models were significantly accurate, with lower values of MAPE, MAP, and RMSE. The findings suggest that an increase in airline capacity, religious travel, and airline competition are associated with the increasing international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia. This also indicates that there is a positive relationship between air transport development and tourism development. Further aviation liberalisation in the Gulf region is discussed to give opportunities for the region's LCCs to increase their share of the increasing air travel demand, thereby enhancing tourism development.     

Social Tourism and Healthy Ageing

Recent research in social tourism notes possible links between tourism participation and improvements in health. However, there is a lack of quantitative evidence concerning the potential links between tourism participation and self‐reported health amongst older people. An ageing society requires measures to promote independent living and enhance older people's quality of life. This paper provides evidence that older tourists are more active and healthy than non‐tourists, from a study comparing health perceptions amongst Spanish older people. The results provide tentative conclusions of causal relationships between tourism and dimensions of physical and mental health through a Structural Equation Model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating European Union structural funding programmes for tourism SMEs: a case from industrial South Wales

This paper considers the evaluation of a programme designed to improve the contribution of tourism to the economy of industrial South Wales. The evaluation of the Network of Excellence for Action in Tourism (NEAT) initiative is compared with recent thinking around two key areas of research into tourism and economic regeneration. First, is the need for alternative (non‐traditional) approaches to evaluation, and second, is the need for effective networks of communication between tourism employers to facilitate the effective demand for skills. This paper analyses the claim that tourism development programmes offer significant advantages other than those commonly identified by funding specifications. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism: a sacred journey? The case of ashram tourism,India

Religious tourism — tourism that is motivated by faith or religious reasons — has been in evidence for centuries. In more recent times, however, it has been suggested that modern tourism has become the functional and symbolic equivalent of more traditional religious practices, such as festivals and pilgrimages. In other words, it is claimed by some that tourism is a sacred journey. To date, however, little work has been undertaken to explore this position; the purpose of this paper, therefore, is to contribute to this debate. Based on an exploratory study, it considers the motivations and experiences of Western tourists visiting the Sri Aurobindo Ashram and the nearby utopian township of Auroville in Pondicherry, south east India. It identifies two principal groups of visitors, namely ‘permanent tourists’ who have immersed themselves indefinitely in a spiritual ‘Other’, and temporary visitors. The latter are categorised into sub‐groups which point to a variety of spiritual and non‐spiritual motives. The paper concludes that there is a continuum of spirituality inherent in tourism, though this is related to tourists' experience rather than initial motivation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Power,social exchanges and tourism in Langkawi: rethinking resident perceptions

A study was undertaken among the residents on Langkawi Island, Malaysia to explore the utility of a combination of social exchange and power theories to explain residents' attitudes toward tourism and to examine how residents' evaluation of the impact of tourism influences their attitudes. In‐depth, semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 46 residents. The study concludes that the combination of social exchange and power theories is more useful than social exchange theory alone in understanding residents' attitudes concerning the impact of tourism. However, residents' general values, dependence on tourism, and ability and willingness to adapt moderate the influence of power on residents' evaluation of the impact of tourism. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Guidebook use by Japanese tourists: a qualitative study of Australia inbound travellers

This qualitative investigation into guidebook use reports on in‐depth interviews conducted with 26 Japanese individuals and one couple who had visited Australia during the five previous years. Focusing on the stages before, during and after travel the research framework was based on Vogt and Fesenmaier's model of information needs. It was found that functional needs were the dominant influences during the prior to travel phase, with some non‐functional needs (hedonic, aesthetic and innovation) also being influential. During the travel phase, only functional needs were evident. Some respondents were identified as being deliberate non‐users of guidebooks. The variable ‘tourist type’ was found to be helpful for distinguishing between users and non‐users and for identifying those with functional needs. The use of guidebooks by those whose needs are both functional and non‐functional may be unaffected by this variable. When the attitudes of those who actively dislike guidebooks and those who hesitate to use them are aggregated, a view emerges of guidebooks as a symbol of standardised tourism. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Importance of Internal Resources and Capabilities and Destination Resources to Explain Firm Competitive Position in the Spanish Tourism Industry

This study draws on the Resource‐Based View to analyze the effects of distinctive competences in tourism firms and location in a tourism district on competitive position, and explores the moderating effects of the tourism destination. Multiple linear regression was used to test the research hypotheses on a sample of 1019 Spanish tourism firms. Results reveal that financial resources and dynamic and production capabilities favor a better competitive position for tourism firms in general; however, coordination and marketing capabilities are key factors for firms embedded in a tourism district, while dynamic capabilities have a negative effect in this case. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anticipating Italian census tourism data before their official release: a first solution and its implementation to Piemonte,Italy

Tourism is a complex and highly competitive sector. In this scenario, incoming tourism flows represent one of the key indicators for public institutions, willing to adopt an informed decision‐making process for resource allocation. The accurate and timely knowledge of both the inter‐regional and the foreign component at a sufficiently detailed geographical level of such flows allows a better strategical, tactical and operational planning of marketing activities. The paper describes a methodology to complete the database of the official statistical data on tourism flows with an estimate of missing data, which are originated by non‐respondent accommodation structure. The methodology has been applied to the inbound tourism flows into Piemonte, Italy. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

The Delphi technique is the most popular judgemental forecasting method in tourism studies, but theoretical and empirical developments in this area (especially for forecasting purposes) have been slow. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical areas, empirical applications, and issues of reliability and validity, and is thus expected to advance understanding of the Delphi technique, providing topical and methodological recommendations for researchers and industry practitioners for producing accurate forecasts. The literature concerning the qualitative and quantitative applications of Delphi forecasting in tourism is mainly divided into three research themes: event forecasting, forecasting tourism demand, and forecasting future trends/market conditions (the most popular application). Issues of accuracy, reliability, and validity, as well as a group of Delphi-specific characteristics, such as panel size, panel selection, consensus measures, and analysis of results, are summarized and discussed. This study also examines the accuracy of Delphi forecasts as well as exploring the role of the Delphi approach in integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasts.     

基于广义回归神经网络的铁路货运量预测

针对BP神经网络预测存在局部极小缺陷和收敛速度慢的问题,提出基于广义回归神经网络(GRNN)的预测模型。基于我国1999—2008年铁路货运量的历史统计数据,应用GRNN模型和混沌BP神经网络模型对铁路货运量进行预测。通过两种预测模型的计算结果比较说明,GRNN模型具有良好的收敛性和较高的精度,而且模型结构简单、计算速度快,具有良好的实用性。     

Measuring underreporting in accommodation statistics: evidence from Italy

The aim of this paper is to provide a new measure of the underreporting of accommodation statistics in Italian domestic tourism. The analysis employs information from different official surveys. Following the Eurostat recommendations, we compare the Italian trips and holidays surveys and the movements in accommodation establishments, the two major official sources on tourism in Italy and on the activities of persons travelling, respectively. The analysis shows that demand-side estimates exceed accommodation statistics by 16%, on average, over the period 2007–2009 and that the underreporting rate is variable over time. The results highlight the need to explicitly consider this measurement error when analysing the tourism business cycle, forecasting tourism flows and defining tourism policy.     

Entrepreneurship and indigenous enterpreneurs in religious tourism in India

This paper demonstrates how indigenous religious entrepreneurs drive religious tourism in a non‐western context. Building on the case study of Vrindavan, an emerging religious tourism destination in India, it explains religious tourism as a natural progression of traditional pilgrimage economy, where entrepreneurship springs from socio‐cultural and ritual exchanges and knowledge of religious protocols and procedures between indigenous religious functionaries and visitors. Using religious hegemony, social status and networks, religious entrepreneurs innovate, develop new products and expand the cultural economy of rituals and performances to suit the demands of the burgeoning tourism. The tendency to consider such entrepreneurship as ‘informal’ not only exempts them from most regulations and legal responsibilities but also undermines their contribution in maintaining the ‘religious’ — the most important resource in religious tourism. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.