Regional cooperation and the environment: Do “dirty” industries migrate?

Regional Cooperation and the Environment: Do “Dirty” Industries Migrate? — This article develops an alternative method to investigate trade in embodied environmental factor services (EEFS) and applies it to bilateral trade between APEC economies. The issue of regional cooperation and the environment is addressed by investigating trade in EEFS between APEC economies in the last three decades. We observe a ‘cascading’ pattern in net exports of EEFS between East Asian economies. However, we do not observe a similar pattern in the trade between North American economies. The results should be interpreted with caution since the application of US sectoral pollution intensity data to other countries may lead to biased estimation of trade in EEFS.     

东亚产业内贸易发展状况及原因分析

近年来,东亚地区产业内贸易发展十分迅速。本文对东亚10个主要经济体1992-2005年的产业内贸易发展状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,产业内贸易已经成为东亚的主要贸易形式。在各类产品中,机械和运输设备(SITC7)的产业内贸易程度最高,且提高最快。产业内贸易发展的原因在于东亚地区产业内分工的不断深化以及基于生产环节专业化分工的产品零部件贸易的迅速发展。     

产品内贸易与传统贸易模式对发展中国家经济增长影响的差异性研究——基于中国的实证分析

产品内贸易模式和传统贸易模式将会对一国的长期经济增长带来不同的影响,本文分别从理论和实证的角度对这一问题进行了论证。理论分析部分我们主要从五个方面阐述了两种贸易模式对一国长期经济增长影响的差异性,并认为产品内贸易模式能够为一国长期的经济增长带来更大的推动作用。实证分析部分我们以中国为研究对象,分别以加工贸易和一般贸易作为产品内贸易和传统贸易的典型代表,首先采用协整的分析方法证明了本文理论分析的结论。然后,我们利用脉冲响应函数研究了两种贸易模式对一国经济增长的动态影响。最后,我们又通过面板数据的回归分析,简要说明了影响产品内贸易对一国经济增长作用的主要因素。通过本文的分析我们认为,要大力提高我国参与国际产品内贸易的规模和水平,以更好地促进我国经济的长期健康增长。     

Demand, comparative advantage and economic geography in international trade: Evidence from the OECD

Demand, Comparative Advantage and Economic Geography in International Trade: Evidence from the OECD. — This paper examines the influence of demand on the pattern of net trade for 17 OECD countries. It is found that demand differences are important as a cause of international trade. In fact, for the majority of countries, demand factors explain more of the net trade pattern than do factor proportions. The evidence offers some support for the modern geography and trade theories: high domestic demand in an industry leads to a net export for the majority of cases. The evidence is, however, not clear-cut. Moreover, a demand bias in favour of domestic varieties leads to a net export. Here, the evidence is clear-cut.     

台海两岸ICT制造业的贸易模式及其决定因素分析

本文基于中国台湾1993～2010年的贸易数据对台海两岸信息通信科技(ICT)制造业最终产品和零部件贸易模式进行解析,研究结果显示:台海两岸ICT制造业的贸易模式逐步从20世纪90年代以产业间贸易为主转变为21世纪以产业内贸易为主,这一点在零部件贸易中表现得尤为突出;无论是最终产品还是零部件,台海两岸ICT产品产业内贸易都以垂直产业内贸易为主,并且零部件产业内贸易中垂直产业内贸易所占比重明显高于最终产品;进一步分析ICT产品垂直产业内贸易中台湾的相对技术优势发现,无论是在最终产品还是零部件垂直产业内贸易中,台湾对大陆出口的高技术含量产品均占据优势份额且呈迅速上涨趋势。台海两岸ICT制造业的产业内贸易模式的实证检验表明,两岸ICT零部件的产业内贸易主要是由驱动ICT全球性生产网络发展的垂直专业分工链条的分解所导致,而ICT最终产品的产业内贸易则主要是由市场规模等需求性因素所导致。     

Trade in manufactured goods: patterns of change

This paper looks at the changing pattern of trade in manufactured goods between the developed industrial countries and the developing countries. It first reviews recent changes in this trade and the policies applied. Then it analyses the comparative advantages of the industrial and the developing countries and indicates the commodity composition of this trade. The implications of the results are drawn with reference to the benefits of trade in manufactured goods for the participants.     

世界贸易新格局的形成及其对中国的影响

本文概述从世界贸易形成到21世纪世界贸易格局的变化历程,并预测21世纪世界贸易格局将演变为以区域集团鼎立为代表的新形式。2010年中国—东盟自由贸易区成立后,东亚将会加速经济一体化进程,这必将促进世界新贸易格局的加速形成,这种新变化将会为中国未来经济的发展提供新的契机。     

Immigrant Specificity and the Relationship between Trade and Immigration: Theory and Evidence

Studies routinely document that immigrant employment concentrates in non‐traded goods sectors and that many immigrants have low inter‐sectoral mobility. We consider these observed characteristics of immigrant employment with regard to the question of how immigration affects a nation's pattern of production and trade. We model an economy producing three goods; one is non‐traded. Domestic labor and capital are domestically mobile but internationally immobile. Allowing that some new immigrants will become specific to the non‐traded goods sector, the model indicates that the effects of immigration on output and trade depend importantly on the sectoral pattern of employment of both new and existing immigrants. Empirical investigation in a panel data set of OECD countries supports the model's prediction that immigration raises the output of non‐traded goods. Consistent with the model, we also find that immigration and trade are complements. Given its empirical support, the model's implications for immigration policy are then discussed.     

Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners

The cross-correlation function between terms of trade and trade balance has been found to resemble a pattern that is labeled the S-curve. This pattern has received weak support in some developed and less developed countries when aggregate trade data are used. Empirical regularities based on aggregate trade data may be biased since aggregation can potentially suppress some of patterns observed in trade at the bilateral levels. We try to overcome this problem by employing bilateral trade data for Japan and find strong support for the S-curve between Japan and many of her trading partners.     

Intra-industry trade of India: Trends and country-specific factors

Intra-industry Trade of India: Trends and Country-Specific Factors. — The analysis in this paper confirms that trade liberalization biases trade expansion towards intra-industry trade (IIT) in India. The increased level of IIT is largely exportled, that is, caused by a faster growth of exports than of imports. India’s IIT is more intense with high-income countries and is characterized by a greater extent of complementarity. Further, certain country-specific factors which are found to be crucial in the models of vertical IIT are pertinent in influencing the pattern of India’s bilateral IIT.     

Trade Openness and Vertical Integration: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

The present article aims to empirically examine a relationship between trade openness and the pattern of vertical integration using the six‐digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) of U.S. manufacturing data from 2002 to 2006. We use the index of vertical integration made out of inter‐plant transfers data by the U.S. Census Bureau, and we consider three proxies of trade openness—import penetration, export shares, and trade penetration. The empirical results substantiate 2000 theoretical proposition that trade openness undermines motives for vertical integration.     

Factor proportions in East-West trade: The case of Finland and Sweden

Conclusions In this study, the role of factor intensities and factor proportions in Swedish and Finnish trade with Eastern Europe have been examined. In the two-factor model, the Swedish results conform with the predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. Finland, on the other hand, shows a paradoxical trade pattern, i.e. the results are contrary to the predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem.     

多维视角下FDI流入的中国贸易条件效应

最近十几年,FDI流入对中国所产生的贸易条件效应出现了新的变化。FDI流入对中国产生了"工资外溢"效应,但并没能通过该效应改善其价格贸易条件;FDI流入没有从根本上改善中国的贸易结构,从而导致较大的价格贸易条件波动性。FDI流入的大幅增加,使得中国对外贸易出口数量也大幅增加,从而在很大程度上弥补了中国价格贸易条件的恶化,带来了其收入贸易条件的改善。相对而言,FDI流入对中国的单要素及多要素贸易条件的改善幅度远小于收入贸易条件,因此,中国在大量引入FDI的同时,应大力提高生产率和技术水平,实现其单要素贸易条件和双要素贸易条件的改善最大化。     

经济开放区域的贸易隐含碳测算及转移分析——以新疆为例

本文首先基于非竞争型区域环境投入产出模型,估算2002-2007年新疆国内外贸易中的隐含碳,分析了贸易隐含碳的行业分布特征及新疆贸易隐含碳的失衡问题。计算结果表明,国内外贸易对新疆均造成碳泄漏,但绝大部分碳泄漏来自国内贸易。运用两地区环境投入产出模型的模拟分析显示,国内贸易有助于显著减少新疆本地的CO2排放量,特别是中间投入品的贸易往来对新疆的环境正效应更大。但由于新疆目前的贸易模式不利于本地区的节能减排,因此不可盲目扩大国内贸易规模,应从降低资源型产业的能耗强度、提高生产技术水平等方面着手,促使产业结构优化升级与贸易结构低碳化调整协调发展。     

中日跨境数字贸易规模测度分析

日本作为数字贸易发展大国和发展强国,在数字贸易规则制定权和相关领域话语权方面与中国存在一定的竞争。分析中日跨境数字贸易规模,有利于理解日本数字贸易发展情况,明确日本在数字贸易格局中所处的地位。从具体构成来看,中日跨境数字订购贸易和跨境数字交付贸易规模均不断扩大,2015年开始前者占据中日跨境数字贸易主体地位,后者比重呈下降趋势。两种贸易模式下日本均处于顺差地位且顺差呈扩大趋势,说明与中国相比日本在数字贸易领域拥有较强的国际竞争力。整体看来,中日跨境数字贸易呈持续增长态势,在中日进出口贸易中的占比不断提升,契合数字经济时代国际贸易发展规律。     

垂直分工、技术转移与东亚区域生产整合:中国视角

本文利用高度细分的贸易数据,在合理分类的基础上分析了中国在东亚区域生产中整合过程的国际分工地位和特点,以及中国高技术产品贸易对外资的高度依赖性,进而总结了东亚生产和贸易模式的变化和中国在新三角贸易中的主导作用。     

对外贸易增长方式转变研究——以义乌市为例

义乌对外贸易呈现数量扩张、低价取胜、缺乏自主品牌、出口产品处于产业链低端等粗放型增长方式特征。在对外贸易发展中面临数量扩张低价竞争出口模式难以为继、贸易壁垒愈演愈烈、出口市场过于集中、资源瓶颈等限制,必须采取相应措施以实现义乌对外贸易增长方式由粗放型向集约型转变。     

Trade Verticality and Structural Change in Industries:The Cases of Taiwan and South Korea

This paper documents that a significant portion of trade for Taiwan and Korea follows the trend of world trade in moving toward a pattern of vertical specialization (VS). Noteworthy is the manufacturing sector, whose VS shares of exports has been steadily increasing and has accounted for more than 90% of the total VS shares of manufactured exports. For Taiwan, nearly 57% of the growth in exports is contributed by the growth in VS-based trade; for Korea, it is as high as 64%. In the analysis, we compare VS shares of exports with or without input-output circulation among domestic industries in an open economy. Using Taiwan as a case study, we further discuss the implications of trade liberalization through tariff reductions for trade verticality. JEL Classification Numbers: F1, F14     

Decomposing China–Japan–U.S. trade: Vertical specialization,ownership, and organizational form

We use the US International Trade Commission's uniquely detailed 1995–2007 Chinese Customs data to better understand the pattern of trade between China and its two largest trading partners, Japan and the United States. Our review finds that only a small share of these flows can be characterized as arm's length, one-way trade in final goods. Instead, we find extensive two-way trade, deep vertical specialization, concentration of trade in computer and communication devices, and a prominent role for foreign-invested enterprises. While these characteristics define both bilateral relationships, important differences between the two pairs do emerge, suggesting that trade costs influence the method by which multinationals choose to integrate their production with China. Consequently, we argue that dialogue on East Asian trade liberalization should include the possibility of significant production gains for the US from its inclusion in any regional agreements.     

当前全球贸易失衡的机制及中国的地位分析

美国的巨额贸易逆差与中国的巨额贸易顺差是当前全球贸易失衡的突出表现,更是以美国为代表的发达国家与以中国为代表的新兴市场经济体在当前世界经济格局及全球生产分工体系中的地位的集中体现,是"美国贸易模式"与"东亚贸易模式"冲突的必然结果。迅速发展的中国是当前世界经济格局中的重要力量,但中国在贸易商品结构、贸易流向结构及贸易利得分配格局中的表现表明,中国在当前全球贸易失衡中充当了贸易模式冲突的突破口的作用,国民福利不增反减,中国应该深刻解读"东亚贸易模式"对中国经济发展的作用,探索更科学、优化的外向型经济发展之路,引导世界经济向更均衡、更健康的方向发展。