Modelling dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate using the copula-based GARCH model

This paper investigates dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate, using the case of China, and from a new perspective by using copula–GARCH models. The empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate is not a determinant factor in fluctuation of China's inbound tourism demand from the countries being studied. Furthermore, only Russia exhibits risk-adverse behaviour with extreme SUR depreciation, or CNY appreciation associated with an extreme decline in arrivals. Third, introducing the tail dependence and dynamic dependence between growth rates of tourism demand and exchange rate add much to the explanatory ability of the model. The findings of this study have important implications for destination manager and travel agent as it helps to understand the impact of exchange rates on China inbound tourism demand and provide a complementary academic approach on evaluating the role of exchange rates in the international tourism demand model.     

Anticipating Italian census tourism data before their official release: a first solution and its implementation to Piemonte,Italy

Tourism is a complex and highly competitive sector. In this scenario, incoming tourism flows represent one of the key indicators for public institutions, willing to adopt an informed decision‐making process for resource allocation. The accurate and timely knowledge of both the inter‐regional and the foreign component at a sufficiently detailed geographical level of such flows allows a better strategical, tactical and operational planning of marketing activities. The paper describes a methodology to complete the database of the official statistical data on tourism flows with an estimate of missing data, which are originated by non‐respondent accommodation structure. The methodology has been applied to the inbound tourism flows into Piemonte, Italy. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring segregation using patterns of daily travel behavior: A social interaction based model of exposure

Recent advances in transportation geography demonstrate the ability to compute a metropolitan scale metric of social interaction opportunities based on the time-geographic concept of joint accessibility. The method we put forward in this article decomposes the social interaction potential (SIP) metric into interactions within and between social groups, such as people of different race, income level, and occupation. This provides a novel metric of exposure, one of the fundamental spatial dimensions of segregation. In particular, the SIP metric is disaggregated into measures of inter-group and intra-group exposure. While activity spaces have been used to measure exposure in the geographic literature, these approaches do not adequately represent the dynamic nature of the target populations. We make the next step by representing both the source and target population groups by space–time prisms, thus more accurately representing spatial and temporal dynamics and constraints. Additionally, decomposition of the SIP metric means that each of the group-wise components of the SIP metric can be represented at zones of residence, workplace, and specific origin–destination pairs. Consequently, the spatial variation in segregation can be explored and hotspots of segregation and integration potential can be identified. The proposed approach is demonstrated for synthetic cities with different population distributions and daily commute flow characteristics, as well as for a case study of the Detroit–Warren–Livonia MSA.     

高速铁路对民族地区旅游发展水平的影响机制研究

高速铁路的开通降低了游客出行的时间和经济成本,影响旅游活动空间集聚规律,形成同城化、网络化等现象。以黔桂云三省39个市州为案例地,采用2010—2019年的面板数据测度地区旅游发展水平并分析其时空演化动态,构建回归模型考察高速铁路影响区域旅游发展水平的效果及作用机制,明确高速铁路在区域旅游经济发展中的作用,为民族地区旅游高质量发展贡献力量。结果显示:高速铁路开通后区域内旅游发展水平普遍提高,并表现出不同的空间态势:贵州以贵阳为中心向四周扩散,云南以旅游发达地区散状分布,而广西呈现出桂林、南宁两核遥望之态;高速铁路通过改善区域旅游可达性实现旅游发展水平的提高,且旅游可达性在民族地区的促进作用中表现为完全中介效应。     

Cluster-mapping procedure for tourism regions based on geostatistics and fuzzy clustering: example of Polish districts

ABSTRACT

In tourism, the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration (concentration of economic activity) spreads beyond the borders of the territorial units. It is referred to as geographic ‘spillovers’ that enhances spatial interdependence and functional relationship of neighbouring regions. Within the standard procedure of cluster-mapping, only concentration inside a territorial unit may be analysed which is a source of biased results in tourism studies. However, tourist agglomeration centres sometimes occur at the juncture of territorial units and the economic entities located in them form spatial clusters with a different degree of membership to several centres of agglomerations located in the neighbourhood. Therefore, we propose to measure ‘inter-regional’ agglomeration in tourism providing modification of spatial autocorrelation measures (regarding neighbourhood and distance). In order to measure neighbourhood more precisely, we use geostatistical information (global positioning system (GPS) coordinates of tourism entities) and geographically weighted fuzzy clustering approach (FGWC). We examine the method on the example of Polish districts (NUTS-4) using database of 131,338 firms registered in section I (accommodation and food services) of Polish Classification of Activity in 2015. The results proved that a novel method of cluster-mapping considering spatial dependency combined with geographic information system (GIS) and FGWC method increases the accuracy of the identification of tourism clusters (inter-regional agglomeration).     

Modelling inbound international tourism demand to Portugal

In this paper the Johansen cointegration analysis of time series is used to model the Portuguese inbound international tourism demand from five countries of origin—France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and UK. This approach examines the long‐run relationships between the demand for holiday visits and the variables that affect holiday travel such as income, destination prices and travel costs (airfares and road costs). Demand functions, for each country of origin, are estimated using annual data on tourism flows from 1975 to 1997. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The determinants of inbound tourism to Malaysia: a panel data analysis

Malaysia has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past 10 years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors influencing inbound tourism to Malaysia. This paper investigates the economic and non-economic determinants of international tourist flows to Malaysia using the generalized method of moment. The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from 33 countries during the period 2000–2012, and the number of possible explanatory variables. It is found that habit persistence (word of mouth), income, hotel room and political stability have a positive impact on tourism demand for Malaysia. Also, results indicate that the estimated coefficients of substitute tourism price in the model are negative. This implies that the five alternative destinations are complementary destinations to Malaysia. In addition, the dummy variable for Visit Malaysia Year in 2007 and severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 had positive and negative impacts on tourism demand for Malaysia, respectively.     

Migration and inbound tourism: an Italian perspective

This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian inbound tourism flows in a dynamic panel data framework. Arrivals, expenditure and nights from 65 countries are analysed for the period 2005–2011. The migration variable is defined at both origin and destination in order to assess the pushing and pulling forces. Estimates were performed using both aggregated flows and flows disaggregated to separate the visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) from two non-VFR categories, namely holiday and business. The results suggest the presence of a strong migration-tourism nexus, which clearly goes beyond VFRs. Moreover, the effects of the different determinants vary according to the way in which the tourism market is segmented and, within each segment, to the way in which tourism demand is measured.     

An evaluation of unethical business practices in Australia's China inbound tourism market

This paper examines the prevalence of unethical practices within the business sector operating in the China to Australia tourism market. The range and nature of the practices are outlined in the context of the structure of outbound operations in China and inbound operations in Australia, taking account of the roles of the respective governments. The prospective impact of the practices on the growth of the market is evaluated. An estimation is provided of the potentially negative impacts of word‐of‐mouth recommendations on future China to Australia tourism flows. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley &Sons, Ltd.     

Agglomeration Density and Labor Productivity in China's Tourism Industry

The primary objective of this study is to examine the extent to which tourism agglomeration density contributes to tourism labor productivity across the provinces of China. This objective is achieved by analyzing a panel dataset from 2000 to 2011. Our estimation results indicate that tourism industry agglomeration density and per capita capital stock are important determinants of labor productivity and that the benefits of locating in dense areas can offset the associated costs for tourism firms. However, diverse industrial circumstances have a negative effect on tourism labor productivity of tourism firms, such as star‐rated hotels, travel agencies, scenic spots, transportation enterprises and other firms. These results are robust for a large series of empirical tests. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GIS-based time-geographic approach of studying individual activities and interactions in a hybrid physical–virtual space

Modern information and communication technologies (ICT) are changing human activity and travel patterns that could have significant implications to our everyday lives and the human organization of space. Time geography, which examines human activities under various constraints in a space–time context, provides a useful framework to analyze the complex spatio-temporal relationships among activities and interactions taking place in both physical and virtual spaces. However, virtual activities and interactions conducted via ICT have characteristics that cannot be properly represented and analyzed under the classical time-geographic framework. This paper extends classical time-geographic concepts to accommodate the needs of representing and analyzing all activities and interactions in a hybrid physical–virtual space. In addition, this paper presents a space–time geographic information system (GIS) design that is capable of organizing complex activity and interaction data as spatio-temporal processes in an integrated space–time environment. This space–time GIS design offers a useful analytical environment for researchers to study increasingly dynamic human activity and travel patterns in today’s society and their implications toward changing travel demand patterns from both spatial and temporal perspectives.     

The spatial impacts model of trans-strait fixed links: A case study of the Pearl River Delta,China

The mage trans-strait fixed links are constructed in different countries to promote regional economic and social development. This paper proposes a spatial impacts model for the trans-strait fixed links in the Pearl River Delta, China. To verify the rationality of the model, four quantitative indicators, including weighted average travel time, the economic linkage intensity, the economic linkage membership grade, and the fractal index are used to investigate the effect by construction of Humen Bridge, Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao Bridge and Shenzhen–Zhongshan Bridge. The results show that the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao Bridge and Shenzhen–Zhongshan Bridge greatly improve the regional accessibility with a maximum decrease weighted average travel time of 1.38 h and 0.4 h. The central part of the Delta has greatest impacts. The links increase the economic linkage of cities of each side. The cities directly connected to the fixed links (Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Macao and Zhongshan) experience the highest increasing economic linkage. The regional spatial pattern evolves from unipolarity to multi-polarity and integrates a more advanced and sophisticated spatial network. The theoretical spatial impacts model for the trans-strait fixed links accords with the actual development in the Pearl River Delta.     

International price competitiveness of Australia's MICE industry

A special‐interest tourist market that holds out great promise for continued growth well into the next century is that of MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, exhibitions). At the same time, changing prices in particular destinations relative to others are regarded as one of the most important economic influences on destination shares of total international tourism flows. The question arises as to the price competitiveness of major competing MICE destinations. Although earlier research has recognised that a destination's price competitiveness differs according to a visitor's country of origin there has been relatively little attention paid to tourism price competitiveness from the perspective of those having different motives for travel. This paper has four major aims: first, to provide a method by which price competitiveness of tourism by journey purpose can be estimated; second, to construct price competitiveness indices that measure, absolutely and relative to major competitors world‐wide, the price competitiveness of Australia's MICE tourism industry; third, to compare Australia's price competitiveness as a MICE destination with its price competitiveness for total inbound tourism; fourth, to discuss the implications of the results for travel and tourism decision‐makers in both the private and public sectors. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

铁路快速客运网对城市通达性的影响

通达性是度量交通网络结构的有效指标,也是评价区域(或城市)获取发展机会和控制市场能力的有效指标之一.阐述城市通达性的评价方法,以31个省会级中心城市为研究对象,分别从各城市的节点总空间距离、节点总时间距离,快速客运网的网络总空间距离、网络总时间距离,城市节点通达性系数以及中心城市的日可达性等方面,分析“十二五”铁路快速客运网建设对城市通达性的影响.     

Off-the-beaten-track tourism: a new trend in the tourism development in historical European cities. A case study of the city of Krakow,Poland

In the recent years, substantial changes in the manner of sightseeing in cities have been becoming visible. Tourists are leaving the old city centres and are deciding to visit places that are not typical tourist attractions. In such places, alternative forms of city tourism described as off-the-beaten-track tourism are developing. In Europe, this pertains especially to historical cities, specifically capital cities and large agglomerations, such as Krakow, one of the biggest cities in Poland, commonly described as the cultural capital. The aim of this article is to analyse the management of tourism in European historical cities in the context of off-the-beaten-track tourism’s development using the case study of Krakow. To illustrate the issue, two districts, Nowa Huta and Podgórze, were chosen as the examples. In both districts one can observe changes affecting the model of city tourism that stems from the shift in motivations of visitors and from alternative ways of spending free time in the city they are visiting. This process necessitates appropriate management of tourism in the city in accordance with the rules of sustainable development and protection of cultural and historical authenticity of places and buildings.     

Distance-decay functions for daily travel-to-work flows

The non-homogeneity of geographic space brings about the processes that horizontally relate sections of geographic space, in transport geography referred to as spatial interactions. The distance separating different types of locations plays a crucial role in these interactions. Distance is the major factor that influences the values of interaction intensities. The question is how the intensities decrease with distance, since this decrease is usually not linear. This paper pursues the issues of the shape and parameters of the distance-decay functions based on daily travel-to-work transport movements, taking regional centres in the Czech Republic as the example. First the special distance-decay functions for individual regional centres are presented and discussed, followed by the expression of the universal distance-decay function approximating generally to the traits of the Czech settlement system and the nature of the interaction flows, i.e., travel-to-work. The expression of the universal function is based on the application of two easily accessible variables: population and number of jobs.     

Time–space transformations of geographic space for exploring,analyzing and visualizing transportation systems

Transportation systems exist within at least two types of space. One is the apparent geographic space, but equally important is the time–space implied by the travel time relations created by the system. Differences between the geographic and time–spaces are properties induced by the transportation system. Methods for time–space transformations of geographic space to explore, visualize and analyze transportation systems were initially developed in the 1960s and 1970s. However, these methods have not been pursued beyond this initial flurry of research activity, most likely due to the difficulties associated with handling and processing digital geographic data. The rise of geographic information systems (GIS), as well as continued development and wider availability of transformation techniques such as multidimensional scaling (MDS) and spatial analytical techniques such as bidimensional regression can allow the potential of time–space transformation techniques to be realized. This paper presents a general methodological framework that exploits recent advances in GIS, MDS and spatial analytical techniques. Results from applying these techniques to the Salt Lake City metropolitan area illustrate the power of these techniques to reveal spatial patterns in the travel time relationships induced by a transportation system. The application also addresses fundamental issues in time–space transformations, such as two-dimensional versus three-dimensional solutions, Euclidean versus non-Euclidean solutions and symmetric and asymmetric solutions.     

Predictive spatial network analysis for high-resolution transport modeling,applied to cyclist flows,mode choice,and targeting investment

Betweenness is a measure long used in spatial network analysis (SpNA) to predict flows of pedestrians and vehicles, and more recently in public health research. We improve on this approach with a methodology for combining multiple betweenness computations using cross-validated ridge regression to create wide-scale, high-resolution transport models. This enables computationally efficient calibration of distance decay, agglomeration effects, and multiple trip purposes. Together with minimization of the Geoffrey E. Havers (GEH) statistic commonly used to evaluate transport models, this bridges a gap between SpNA and mainstream transport modeling practice. The methodology is demonstrated using models of bicycle transport, where the higher resolution of the SpNA models compared to mainstream (four-step) models is of particular use. Additional models are developed incorporating heterogeneous user preferences (cyclist aversion to motor traffic). Based on network shape and flow data alone the best model gives reasonable correlation against cyclist flows on individual links, weighted to optimize GEH (r² = 0.78, GEH = 1.9). As SpNA models use a single step rather than four, and can be based on flow data alone rather than demographics and surveys, the cost of calibration is lower, ensuring suitability for small-scale infrastructure projects as well as large-scale studies.     

The spatial and temporal dimensions of the interdependence between the airline industry and the Chinese economy

The airline industry contributes largely to the economic development of a region. At the same time, the fortunes of the industry can also be affected by regional economic change. This paper uses geographically weighted correlation analysis to investigate the spatial heterogeneity and temporal change of this interdependence as seen in China over the years from 2005 to 2016. The results show that the interdependence between the airline industry and provincial economies is non-stationary, generally with a spatial variation along the east-west axis across China's provinces. Further, the temporal change in the interdependence was affected by specific economic changes, such as the global crisis of 2008, when it weakened. Specifically, air passenger activities in the eastern provinces were more sensitive to some economic changes of 2012, while air freight activities in the western and central provinces were more sensitive to the global economic crisis of 2008. The size of urban agglomeration and regional GDP also influence the spatial heterogeneity of this interdependence with weaker links as GDP increases. It is possible that liberalization of the airline industry could enhance the interdependence in advanced regions. Thus, our results provide significant policy implications for a joint focus on the development of the regional economy and the airline industry.