Network dynamics of tourism development in South Korea

This study utilizes network analysis to trace the evolution in the organizations of tourism development during South Korea’s transition from a developing to a developed country spanning the period from 1945 to 1999. This is studied by examining changes within a network of organizations as their means and objectives evolve. Data are drawn from news articles that deal with tourism and development from 1945 to 1999, and coded into organizations, development-related means, and objectives. Two-mode and a one-mode metric network analysis and correspondence analysis of coded data were undertaken. The results show the dynamic nature of networks interacting among organizations along with their means and objectives. Furthermore, this study states that the “social embeddedness” of the tourism network became stronger over time, leading to further development opportunities.     

A nonlinear approach to the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of the MERCOSUR

This paper analyses the tourism-led growth hypothesis for the four countries of the MERCOSUR regional trade block. By applying nonlinear techniques, we explore whether tourism activity leads – in the long run – to economic growth, or, alternatively, economic expansion drives tourism growth, or indeed a bidirectional relationship exists between the two variables. To this end, non-parametric cointegration and causality tests are applied to quarterly data for the period 1990–2011. We show the existence of a cointegrated relationship between real per capita gross domestic product and tourism expenditure for all countries. Moreover, the linearity of this relation is rejected for both Argentina and Brazil (economies with a relatively diversified structure). The non-parametric causality tests confirm in all cases the causality from tourism to growth. Meanwhile, only for Uruguay and Argentina causality also goes in the inverse direction (from growth to tourism). Finally, the paper compares the results of the nonlinear approach with those obtained by using the traditional linear methodology.     

Winners and losers in the Arab uprisings: a Mediterranean tourism perspective

This paper analyses the effects of the recent Arab uprisings on tourism destinations located along the Mediterranean coastline. It uses time-series analysis to model international tourist arrivals. First, autoregressive integrated moving average models are estimated for the period 1980–2009 and predicted for 2010–2014 to establish suitable country controls. Second, Bayesian structural time-series models – designed primarily to determine causal impacts in on-line marketing campaigns – are used to establish the effects of the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, Spain and Greece. The main conclusion is that the models clearly capture the negative impact of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt and their positive impacts on Morocco and Turkey. However, the effects on Spain and Greece are less clear and depend crucially on the set of controls used in the analysis.     

International tourism and economic development in South Africa: a Granger causality test

One of the major objectives of macroeconomic policies in many developing countries is sustained economic growth, and South Africa has been striving to achieve and maintain this in various ways. One of these is through international tourism. Although international tourism contributes to the growth of many economies, it is in turn, impacted by growth in many developed countries. Real gross domestic product (GDP), international tourism earnings, real effective exchange rate and exports were analysed within a multivariate vector auto regressive model using annual data covering 1980–2005. The main focus of this study therefore was to demonstrate the direction of causality between international tourism earnings and long‐run economic growth of South Africa, among other variables, using Granger causality analysis. The result obtained showed a unidirectional causality running from international tourism earnings to real GDP, both in the short run and in the long run. The error correction mechanism carried out also supported this causality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Traveler segmentation strategy with nominal variables through correspondence analysis

Travel research is increasingly exploring the role of qualitative elements in mobility behaviors, beyond customarily considered factors such as the socioeconomic status of travelers or the characteristic and performances of transport systems. More recent travel surveys are thus increasingly collecting non-metric information through categorical variables such as opinions, which is difficult to exploit with the most widely used analytical tools. The present paper assesses the potential of a nonparametric analysis technique little used in transport research, namely correspondence analysis, in order to define a set of different customer profiles regarding stated mode choices. Data coming from an attitudinal travel survey administered to a representative sample of the population of the city of Novara (Italy) are used to this effect. The resulting clusters are quite informative and policy relevant, mainly because they are based on a variety of metric and nominal variables which would be less easy to consider when using more standard multivariate techniques such as cluster analysis, and also because not all the observation need to be forcedly classified. A simple modal choice modeling exercise illustrates how the derived market segments can provide guidance to improve the results of a standard quantitative analysis, while keeping a low computational complexity. Our study shows the usefulness of the proposed methodology in a transport policy decision-making context.     

Inequality and access to social services in Latin America: space–time constraints of child health checkups and prenatal care in Montevideo

This paper explores the role of space–time constraints in determining the conditions under which people access to basic social services. To do so, the paper addresses two empirical questions: (i) how travel time impacts families’ strategies for choosing and using social services, and (ii) how service characteristics become part of the constraints families have to face when using services. Both questions refer to problems that are of “time nature” (e.g., long waiting hours or the imposition of additional tasks and travel to finally obtain access to the service). The use of a space–time approach introduces a theoretical innovation for studying access to urban public social services in the region, shedding light on the micro-processes underneath macro-aggregated indicators. This is performed by examining in a qualitative manner the way in which space–time constraints are distributed among different types of families and by looking at families’ strategies for accessing services in a city like Montevideo, the capital of Uruguay. The empirical evidence is a qualitative study with 13 households with at least one child between 0 and 3 years of age. These households were selected from a purposive sample that allowed the study of a group of cases from different socioeconomic strata living in different geographical locations. The paper results suggest that households use travel time as an input to manage total time investment (travel plus participation) when defining a strategy to reach better services. In addition, empirical evidence reflects the distorting effects that uncertainty about the time to be spent in using the services may have on the activities of households.     

Truck movement across the Canada–US border: The effects of 9/11 and other factors

The objective of this study is to isolate the effects of the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and the subsequent stringent border security regime on the levels of truck movement across the Canada–US border. A time series analysis, within an econometric system that rendered stationarity and used the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimator, was performed to model these movements. The analysis represents a natural experiment on the variability of cross-border truck movements in the aftermath of 9/11. Annual truck crossing data over the period 1972–2011, disaggregated by the country of registration (US and Canada) and Canadian jurisdictions (provinces) were used in the analysis. The results indicate that in general, 9/11 have had a negative effect on the cross-border movement of Canadian and US trucks, but the impacts were more pronounced in the case of the US trucks. Other interesting results include an increase in the number of US trucks during the period that followed the last US financial crisis. The results also illustrate the importance of GDP in explaining the observed truck movements across the Canada–US border.     

Cultural comparison of tourists' safety perception in relation to trip satisfaction

Although safety and security are seen as a priori for a prosperous tourism industry in any destination, safety and security perception and its influence on tourist behaviour have received limited empirical attention from researchers. This study investigated tourists' perception of the safety and security of a destination in relation to the level of satisfaction with their trip, using Turkey and its visitors as a case in point. The stepwise regression analysis was employed to investigate the relationship between trip satisfaction, safety and security‐related variables, existence of product or service failure, and selected demographic variables. Results showed that positive perception of Turkey's hygiene and health, and safety and security helped visitors to have greater trip satisfaction, especially if they stayed longer and enjoyed their trip without any product or service failure; however, German tourists and tourists with a secondary school degree are more likely to have less trip satisfaction. Practical implications and future research suggestions are discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure: evidence from Chinese regions

This paper examines the possibility of spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure in Chinese regions. We estimate the regional spillovers of the transport infrastructure stock by applying a spatial Durbin Model for the time-period 1978–2009, and also three sub-periods, 1978–1990, 1991–2000 and 2001–2009. The results indicate that positive spillovers exist in each period due to the connectivity characteristic of transport infrastructure at the national level. At the regional level, transport infrastructure spillover effects vary considerably over time among China’s four macro-regions: the eastern region enjoyed positive spillovers all the time; the northeastern region had no significant spillover effects in 1978–1990, negative spillovers in 1991–2000, and positive spillovers in 2001–2009; the central region had negative spillovers for the three sub-periods; for the western region, negative spillovers can be observed after the 1990s. The analysis indicates that changes in spillovers among regions are closely associated with the migration of production factors in China during the last decades.     

Using multiple correspondence cluster analysis to map the competitive position of airlines

Airlines can use market positioning to identify the major strengths and weaknesses of their services. The empirical analysis examines the international airlines operating on the Taipei–Tokyo and Taipei–Osaka routes. The multiple correspondence analysis results illustrate the relative positions of airlines, service attributes, and travelers’ characteristics in a perceptual map. The cluster analysis clearly identifies two groups of airlines that compete on particular services. The findings suggest that each airline can simultaneously adopt strategies to maintain and enhance its current strengths and to strengthen attributes in which it is lacking.     

The role of transportation accessibility in regional economic resilience

Whereas the importance of transportation for economic growth is widely acknowledged, past studies on the resilience of regions to economic shocks have not given explicit attention to the role of transportation accessibility on building robust regional economies. This exploratory study examines the regional performance in six U.S. states during the last recession (2008–2009) and post-recession (2010–2014) and evaluates its association with the transportation infrastructure. To account for spatial dependence and interactions, a exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), a global spatial autoregressive model, and a local Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) are employed. Results show that, after controlling for other key aspects of resilience, such as industrial diversity and human capital, the global relationships between rail density, access to intermodal services, and access to local and regional markets were positively associated with regional performance (measured as competitive effect) during the recession. Similarly, positive regional performance before the recession period was associated with positive performance during the recession. The local spatial analysis, however, shows that the associations between the explanatory variables and regional performance vary significantly across space. The analysis and results of this study can contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions between economic resilience and transportation infrastructure, and guide the development of policies and practices designed to strengthen the ability of regions to be resilient to economic shocks.     

Geographic Information System (GIS) Analysis of Impacts in the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) of a Mediterranean Resort

Tourism in Spain has evolved from being a residual sector in the economy during the 1950s to become at present the main source of wealth in the country. The Spanish Law of Centres and National Tourist Interest Areas of 1963 created numerous new resorts on the coast whose life cycle is now over 50 years. On the Mediterranean coast, urban development and tourism model processes have been developed with major feedback to each other. In this context, it is particularly interesting to evaluate the results obtained since the decade of the 1960s in order to achieve sustainable tourism. This paper analyses a paradigmatic case study located on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. A diagnosis that explains the evolution of the life cycle tourist destination as a consumer product is carried out using geographic information system analysis of the urban plot. The mutation of the target customer, the real estate overcrowding, or the seasonality of demand will be the variables to be evaluated in order to assess the final return of the managed product. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global financial crisis and stationarity of tourist arrivals: evidence from Mauritius

The purpose of this research note is to examine whether shocks such as the recent global financial crisis of 2007–2009 had a permanent or transitory effect on tourist arrivals in a developing country – Mauritius. Principally premised on a new nonlinear unit root test, the results show that tourist arrivals are stationary. The implication of these findings is that the shocks inclusive of those induced by the latest credit crunch had a temporary impact on tourism markets in Mauritius.     

Gravitational force exerted by Brazilian tourist destinations on foreign air travelers

This article analyses the context of international tourist flows by air and tourism in Brazil, by applying the principles of the gravity model. The study includes 13 Brazilian international airports that served 108 origin-destination pairs, which accounted for 80.14% of the total tourist flows by air in 2012. In the statistical analysis applied, the dependent variable Ft is the tourist flow between the country of origin and the Brazilian state of destination. To approximate an explanatory equation, we formulated a linear function that was able to support, in 31.7% of the cases, the dependence of the international tourist flows with the variables considered in the linear regression performed. The conclusion is that the assumptions considered in this study only partially explain the gravitational force exerted by Brazilian tourist destinations, so there is a need to refine the model by including other variables that can influence the flows by air of international tourists.     

Antecedents of travellers’ repurchase behaviour for luxury cruise product

This study proposed and tested a theoretical model in which image congruence, affect, satisfaction, switching costs, and trust have an influence on travellers’ decision to repurchase a luxury cruise product by considering the moderating impact of conspicuousness. The model was evaluated using a quantitative approach. The original model included a satisfactory fit and prediction power. The results of the structural analysis revealed that the hypothesized associations between the study variables were generally supported, and such variables had a significant mediating role. In addition, conspicuousness of product use had a moderating impact on the affect–satisfaction–switching costs linkages. Moreover, the prominent role of satisfaction and trust was identified. The findings of this study extended our understanding of the complex of the relationships among study variables in forming luxury cruise passengers’ repurchase intention.     

Factors influencing cargo agents choice of operations in Abuja airport,Nigeria

The ability of an airport to attract traffic can vary within a multi-airport model of operation and highly competitive environment. This study is an effort to examine the factors that cargo agents rank as most important in their choice of Abuja airport cargo transhipment operations. A questionnaire survey was conducted on a random sample of members of the Association of Nigeria Customs Licensed Agents (ANCLA) at Abuja airport for primary data collection. The study employed a combination of Factor Analysis (FA) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to analyse the data collected. The results of the factor loadings indicate airport capacity, airport charges and customs efficiency as the most significant factors that agents consider in their choice of handling cargo through Abuja airport. The three variables were found to have a high correlation relationship (R = 0.802) with the dependent variable of airport choice after subjecting it to regression analysis. This serves as information to airport managers for the airport planning of capacity in cargo operations within multi-airport country such as Nigeria.     

Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand

To be best prepared for tomorrow's cities we need to forecast urban travel demand. To this end, this study calibrates an urban travel demand model, which uses the principal structural variables that have been identified in the literature. It uses a robust econometric method, which has been little applied in the sphere of transportation. The results show that two variables stand out from the others: the user cost of transport – by private car and public transport – and urban density. It is surprising, but explicable with the available data, that the demand functions estimated for a given country are independent from the group of countries to which it belongs.     

Factors affecting the service quality of the tour guiding profession in Macau

This study examines the factors affecting the service quality of the tour guiding profession in Macau. In‐depth interviews were conducted with representatives from the Macau Tourist Guide Association, the Macau Government Tourist Office and selected practising tour guides to explore the issues from multiple insiders' perspectives. The factors identified were classified into six categories: unhealthy business practices, market domination, immaturity of tourist market, changing tourist behaviour, intense competition between inbound tour operators and human resource issues. The findings suggest that a number of these problems actually originated from the unhealthy business practices of the tourist‐generating country, namely mainland China in this study. Considering the growing importance of the Chinese outbound tourism market, the study findings will be of significant value to Macau and to other destinations targeting the Chinese market. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal Granger Causality and the Dynamics Relationship Between Real Tourism Receipts,Real Income and Real Exchange Rates in Malaysia

This study applies the bounds testing approach, error‐correction modelling and persistence profile to analyse the dynamic relationship between real tourism receipts, real income and real exchange rates in Malaysia. The present study covers the annual sample period from 1974 to 2009. The results reveal that a long‐run relationship exists between the variables. In the short run, this study finds no Granger causality between real tourism receipts and real income, whereas there is bidirectional causality in the long‐run. Moreover, we also find unidirectional causality running from real exchange rates to real tourism receipts and real income in both short‐ and long‐run. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring cruise ship passenger spending patterns in two Uruguayan ports of call

The cruise industry has become a significant component of the Uruguayan tourism economy in the last few years. The present study aims to provide a better understanding of the cruise industry by considering the expenditure of cruise ship passengers disembarking at the ports of call of Montevideo and Punta del Este as a key variable in the economic analysis of the costs and benefits. We estimate two cross-sectional regression models for cruise passenger expenditures, and show that the size of the group the visitors travel with and visitor mobility within the country are the most important variables to explain individual expenditure behaviour. We also include some management recommendations that policy-makers could implement in order to improve the economic profits from cruise ship tourism.