Quality time

With health care costs soaring, almost everyone rushed into managed care plans to save money. But consumers have discovered that price isn't everything. And business, government and unions increasingly have embarked on a quest for health care quality.     

Exploitation and time

This paper analyses exploitation and class formation in a dynamic context. An intertemporal model of a subsistence economy is set up and, among other results, it is proved that, in an interior equilibrium, Differential Ownership of (Scarce) Productive Assets is an inherent feature of a capitalist economy, while exploitation tends to disappear in the long run. Asset inequality is therefore proved to be a normatively secondary (though causally primary) wrong. It is also argued that these results raise several doubts about the possibility of providing robust micro-foundations to Marxian concepts by means of Walrasian general equilibrium models.     

Total work time in Spain: evidence from time diary data

Using detailed time-use data from 2002–03 and 2009–10 for Spain, we analyse changes in the time-allocation decisions of the Spanish population, with a focus on the time devoted to total work. Consistent with prior literature, we document that the concept of ‘iso-work’ (e.g. the time devoted to total work by gender is equal) does not hold in societies with stringent gender roles, such as Spain. Women devote more time to total work than men, and this difference has increased throughout the period studied by 2 hours per week. The relative increase in total work for women compared to men can be explained by a relative increase in market work of 8 hours per week, coupled with a relative decrease in nonmarket work of 6 hours per week, which have led Spanish women to devote, relatively, 2 fewer hours to leisure per week in 2009–10, compared to 2002–03. We propose social norms as a potential explanation of these empirical findings. By uncovering how individuals allocate their time inside and outside the market over a period of time, our results may improve our understanding of the dynamics of economic change and welfare.     

Equilibrium store locations when consumers minimize travel time plus waiting time

This note studies a simple variant of the classical Hotelling model for store locations: It assumes that in choosing a store, consumers take into account not only travel time but also waiting time for service in each store, which in turn depends on the number of consumers choosing that store.     

On negative time preferences

Survey data show that subjects positively discount both gains and losses but discount gains more heavily than losses. This holds for monetary and non-monetary outcomes. These results do not confirm the findings of two earlier studies about negative time preferences for non-monetary outcomes.     

Africa is on time

We present evidence that the recent African growth renaissance has reached Africa’s poor. Using survey data on African income distributions and national accounts GDP, we estimate income distributions, poverty rates, and inequality indices for African countries for the period 1990–2011. We show that: (1) African poverty is falling rapidly; (2) the African countries for which good inequality data exists are set to reach the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) poverty target on time. The entire continent except for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will reach the MDG in 2014, one year in advance, and adding the DRC will delay the MDG until 2018; (3) the growth spurt that began in 1995, if anything, decreased African income inequality instead of increasing it; (4) African poverty reduction is remarkably general: it cannot be explained by a large country, or even by a single set of countries possessing some beneficial geographical or historical characteristic. All classes of countries, including those with disadvantageous geography and history, experience reductions in poverty. In particular, poverty fell for both landlocked as well as coastal countries; for mineral-rich as well as mineral-poor countries; for countries with favorable or with unfavorable agriculture; for countries regardless of colonial origin; and for countries with below- or above-median slave exports per capita during the African slave trade.     

Creativity over time and space

Creativity is often highly concentrated in time and space, and across different domains. What explains the formation and decay of clusters of creativity? We match data on notable individuals born in Europe between the eleventh and the nineteenth centuries with historical city data. The production and attraction of creative talent is associated with city institutions that protected economic and political freedoms and promoted local autonomy. Instead, indicators of local economic conditions such as city size and real wages, do not predict creative clusters. We also show that famous creatives are spatially concentrated and clustered across disciplines, that their spatial mobility has remained stable over the centuries, and that creative clusters are persistent but less than population.

     

State and religion over time

State and religion, two of the oldest institutions known to mankind, have historically had a close relationship with each other, but the disestablishment of state religions has been one of the most drastic institutional transformations that has taken place in the modern era. We offer a systematic analysis of the development of secular states based on a political economy approach that is centered on the notion of legitimacy. Viewing religion as a legitimizing force for political leaders, we consider the factors affecting the cost and benefits of alternative sources of legitimacy, such as the differential abilities of religious and secular sources to legitimize political rulers and historical inertia that shaped the cost of monitoring legitimizing agents. To examine this argument empirically, we built a cross-national time-series dataset for the relationship between state and religion since the year 1000. We first use the data to examine the evolution of secularism over time and its variation across religious traditions. We then use regression analysis and an instrumental variables approach to identify the influences on the adoption of secular state, such as concentration in the religion market, religious differences between rulers and the general population, historical inertia of a state, and the prevailing political regime. We address endogeneity concerns regarding the relationship between religious concentration and state secularism by exploiting variation among territories in their geographic distance to religious “capitals” of the world as an instrument.     

Seasonality in macroeconomic time series

Recently, the seasonal characteristics of macroeconomic time series have drawn a lot of attention. It has been argued that the seasonal component of many macroeconomic time series constitutes a major part of the series measured as a proportion of the variance. In addition it has been found that the seasonal component of most macroeconomic time series is constant and best “explained” by seasonal dummies. Specifically it is often found that a Christmas boom is followed by a beginning of the year trough. Based on quarterly and monthly macroeconomic time series from a large number of countries this paper shows that many macroeconomic time series have seasonal components that are changing over time. Furthermore, the Christmas boom and especially the 1st quarter trough is not found nearly as often as one might expect.     

Non-constant discounting in continuous time

This paper derives the dynamic programming equation (DPE) to a differentiable Markov Perfect equilibrium in a problem with non-constant discounting and general functional forms. Beginning with a discrete stage model and taking the limit as the length of the stage goes to 0 leads to the DPE corresponding to the continuous time problem. The note discusses the multiplicity of equilibria under non-constant discounting, calculates the bounds of the set of candidate steady states, and Pareto ranks the equilibria.     

Growth with time zone differences

We propose a two-country growth model of intermediate business-services trade that captures the role of time zone differences. It is shown that a time-saving improvement in intermediate business-services trade involving production in different time zones can have a permanent impact on productivity.     

Gender differences in time preferences

This paper reports the results from a large online experiment in which we examine gender differences in time preferences. Subjects choose in different situations between receiving an immediate payment and receiving a different sum later. We find that more men than women are impatient and choose to receive the immediate payment, at least if the implicit interest rate of the “late” option is neither too high nor too low.     

PSO-based high order time invariant fuzzy time series method: Application to stock exchange data

Fuzzy time series methods are effective techniques to forecast time series. Fuzzy time series methods are based on fuzzy set theory. In the early years, classical fuzzy set operations were used in the fuzzy time series methods. In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques have been used in different stages of fuzzy time series methods. In this paper, a novel fuzzy time series method which is based on particle swarm optimization is proposed. A high order fuzzy time series forecasting model is used in the proposed method. In the proposed method, determination of fuzzy relations is performed by estimating the optimal fuzzy relation matrix. The performance of the proposed method is compared to some methods in the literature by using three real world time series. It is shown that the proposed method has better performance than other methods in the literature.     

Estimating the time involved in managing the 'unoccupied bed:' a time and motion study

Occupied bed days are often used as a demand indicator when calculating the number of nurses required to provide safe care. However, such calculations fail to take into account the amount of nursing time consumed by the "unoccupied bed." This study used direct observation time-and-motion methods to estimate the time and costs associated with a bed that is unoccupied. The average time taken to complete all of the activities associated with a bed that was unoccupied due to an internal transfer was 8.65 minutes, for a patient discharge 26.27 minutes, and for a patient admission 37.7 minutes. An average daily cost for activities surrounding these patient movements was approximately $386/day (AUD) in registered/enrolled nursing salaries alone. The unoccupied bed is not resource neutral and time associated with its maintenance should be considered when calculating nursing requirements to provide safe care.     

Optimal stopping time with stochastic volatility

This paper demonstrates how to convert a path-dependent optimal stopping time problem into a path-independent problem using a transformation analysis method. We test this method to deal with several problems, especially those in stochastic volatility environments. We introduce stochastic state variables into volatility dynamics and analyse the influence of state-variable volatile characters on investment stopping boundaries. For arbitrary coefficient circumstances, we set up a Riccati equation that satisfies the transformation. For circumstances involving Heston stochastic-volatility, we propose an analytical solution. This paper extends research on the optimal investment stopping issue to a stochastic investment opportunity environment. Our proposed method can enhance the ability of optimal investment stopping theory to describe the real capital market.