浅析金融海啸中的信用卡业务风险及防范预警对策

随着我国改革开放的深入和金融市场的发展,商业银行的信用卡发行量迅速增长,并且已经成为银行利润的重要来源之一。但是从2008年美国次贷危机引起的全球金融海啸可以看出,银行的信贷业务深刻影响着经济的健康发展,信用卡业务中的潜在风险威胁着国民经济的稳定。本文从对我国信用卡业务发展现状的分析出发,针对信用卡的风险特点和目前信用卡风险管理中存在的问题进行了重点研究,提出了信用卡的风险防范及预警措施。     

四大金融联结模式化解农村大额消费信贷难题

农村大额消费刚性强,额度大,单靠农民自身积累很难实现,农村大额消费信贷业务的开展不仅能把农村潜在的大额消费需求转化为现实,刺激农村消费,而且为农村信用社巨大的存储差挖掘新的利润增长点。但由于严重的信息不对称,农信社拥有大量闲置资金却很难开展该项业务,而民间金融依托信息优势和乡土文化因素开办该项业务却很成功。农村信用社和乡村中介的金融联结(转贷、雇用、合作、担保四种联结模式)可以实现两者的优势合作,从而化解农村大额消费信贷难题。     

金融市场准入与农信社信贷支农关联:苏北样本

基于信息比较优势理论建立的农村信用社贷款配置选择模型及对苏北23个县域经验数据的实证研究表明:降低农村金融市场准入限制以后,企业贷款市场和农户贷款市场形成了不同的竞争格局,由此改变了农村信用社在两个市场上的信贷资金配置策略,使其支农意愿增加,对农户的贷款强度和广度均显著提升;同时,竞争使得农村信用社信息成本降低,农户贷款价格下降。但是农村信用社在农户贷款市场的垄断地位使其仍然拥有较强的客户选择权和定价权。因此,构建竞争性、多层次的农村金融体系,不仅需要引入商业性金融机构,还需要着力培育和发展新型农村金融机构,并充分发挥政策性金融的作用。     

农户信用信息基础数据库建设的思考——基于新疆视角

近年来,为有效支持农户发展生产,推动农村经济发展,各地涉农金融机构均不同程度地建立了农户信用档案,为农户提供信贷支持,但因重复建设也造成了资源的极大浪费。为使农户信用信息早日纳入全国统一的人民银行个人征信系统,实现全国农户信用信息的共享,本文借鉴浙江丽水市、重庆巴南州等内地发达城市的先进经验和作法,结合新疆农村和农户发展实际,对建设新疆农户信用信息基础数据库的可行性进行了客观分析,认为新疆可以以省为单位,以人民银行总行《农村信用体系建设基本数据项指引》为指导,以农户家庭为单位建立由农户基本情况、贷款归还情况、为他人担保情况、涉农金融机构对农户的授信额度等指标组成的电子信用档案,并建立与农户信用等级评定配套的农户信用评价指标体系,在此基础上建立“新疆农户信用信息基础数据库”,从而统一信用信息的采集和评价标准,为新疆的“三农”经济发展服务。     

Intranational Consumption Risk Sharing in South Korea: 2000–2016

This paper examines consumption risk sharing among 16 regions in South Korea over the 2000–2016 period. The empirical results show that 91.8 percent of shocks to gross regional domestic product are smoothed in South Korea. Capital markets, the tax‐transfer system and credit markets absorb 29.9, 28.9 and 33.0 percent of shocks to gross regional domestic product, respectively. Most notably, South Korea relies more on credit markets for risk sharing than capital markets, an opposite pattern to advanced countries like the USA, Canada and Australia. Furthermore, the patterns of consumption risk sharing are different before and after the 2007–2008 global financial crisis, and differences in regional industrial structure and local development can influence these patterns. This paper attempts to infer the connection between these findings and both the rapid economic growth of South Korea and the Asian and global financial crises.     

Remote markets as shelters for local distortions: Evidence from China

We study how the presence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) distorts private firms' decision on interprovincial sales in China. Using data from World Bank Investment Climate Survey and Annual Survey of Manufacturing Firms in China, we find evidence that the prevalence of SOEs in a city-industry where private firms reside will affect these firms' decision on the allocation of sales between interprovincial markets versus adjacent market. The direction of the effect on private firms, however, depends crucially on the private firms' access to credit. Specifically, the prevalence of SOEs leads to a higher propensity to sell to remote markets for firms with adequate financial access, whereas the opposite is true for firms who are credit constrained. We build a parsimonious model which links political/market distortion, market access, and credit constraint to explain these patterns, and argue that remote markets can serve as shelters for local distortions resulted from SOEs presence for some private firms.     

信贷紧缩和流动性供给的悖论——全球金融危机之后中国银行业的考察(下)

我国在金融危机之后出现过信贷膨胀,经济过热之后又出现信贷紧缩。信贷紧缩会导致信贷增长下降,社会再生产的资金需求得不到满足。信贷紧缩有管理性成因,也有制度性成因。同时,为了确保经济增长的一定增速,我国的货币政策又要保持一定的流动性。这样,我国就出现了信贷紧缩和流动性供给之间的矛盾。本文讨论了全球金融危机之后,我国出现信贷紧缩的宏观经济运行背景,以及在此背景下货币政策失灵的内在逻辑。     

解决中小企业融资难的国际经验与对策

中小企业融资难是经济发展过程中的一个瓶颈,我国现在处于经济转型升级的发展阶段,中小企业为我国经济的发展带来了动力,提高我国经济发展的质量,有利于我国经济的持续、健康发展,但是中小企业的发展却面临着种种困难,导致我国中小企业陷入发展困境。本文借鉴美国、日本、韩国和德国等发达国家的经验,分析了这些国家在发展中小企业过程的先进经验和对策,特别是有些发达国家和发展中国家的发展情况,与我国既有类似又有差异的特征,本文进一步地结合我国中小企业的发展现状和困难,认为成立政策性金融机构、完善信用担保机制、建立民间金融机构和鼓励资本市场优势等经验都非常有借鉴意义,可以显著的提高我国中小企业的发展动力,解决中小企业融资难的困境。     

Financial Development, Economic Growth and Adaptive Efficiency： A Comparison between China and Pakistan

The strong economic growth in China is difficult to reconcile with its inefficient financial system. The puzzle of China＇s financial development and growth can be explained through a dynamic criterion of adaptive efficiency, rather than through allocative efficiency. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag model, the present paper tests the hypothesis that the GDP growth rate is dependent on financial development along with other variables in China and Pakistan. The hypothesis cannot be rejected in both cases. However, the results show that economic growth has a negative relationship with credit to the private sector in China. We conclude that financial development is a source of China＇s high growth rate and that the banking system is still under an evolutionary process, involving the pursuit of social objectives instead of the sole objective of profit maximization. Our results provide some implications for other developing countries like Pakistan.     

Entry,information, and financial development: A century of competition between French banks and notaries

Poorly developed financial markets are widely believed to block economic growth, because only modern financial intermediaries such as banks can mobilize large amounts of financial capital at low cost. This claim is supported by cross country regressions, but the regressions assume that credit intermediation is measured accurately before modern financial intermediaries arrive. If traditional intermediaries were mobilizing large amounts of financial capital before banks or other modern intermediaries appear, then the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth would be cast into doubt. Using an original panel dataset from nineteenth-century France, we provide the first estimates of how much financial capital key traditional intermediaries (notaries) were mobilizing for an entire economy during its first century of economic growth, and we analyze the lending that the notaries made possible in French mortgage market. The amount of capital they mobilized turns out to be large. We then analyze the effect that financial deepening had on the notaries as banks spread and find that the banks' and notaries' services were in all likelihood complements. The implication is that the link between financial development and economic growth may therefore be weaker than is assumed.     

Trade,Investment and Economic Interdependence between South Korea and China*

The Korean economy has been significantly affected by the emergence of China. It is now the largest market for Korean exports and a major supplier of its low‐cost imports but has at the same time become a serious challenger to Korea in the world markets for manufacturing exports. This paper investigates changes in China's export structure and its effect on Korea, and bilateral trade between the two. It also examines the motives for Korean investment in China and its effect on bilateral trade and cross‐border production networks.     

Prospect for China-Korea Economic Relations

This paper briefly reviews the economic performance of China's economic reform starting in 1978, and which it presents personal views on the experiences of Korea's economic development and lessons for China's economic reform. The paper reviews the China‐Korea economic relationship, and explores both the opportunities of China's economic development for Korea and the prospects for Bilateral Economic cooperation. It is estimated that the Chinese economy will maintain dynamic growth for the coming decade. The 2008 Olympic Games and the 2010 World Expo in China will provide further impetuses for Chinese economic development. China's huge market and its rapid economic growth can help the further recovery and development of the Korean economy. At the same time, the further development of the Chinese economy can benefit from financial, technical and managerial support from Korea. The complementarities between the industrial structures of China and Korea will surely push their future economic cooperation into a broader and deeper stage. Bilateral trade will enhance the competitiveness of both nations in the global market and help them achieve mutual prosperity and development. (Edited by Xinyu Fan)     

Corruption and firm growth: Evidence from China

Corruption is one of the most pervasive obstacles to economic and social development. However, in the existing literature it appears that corruption seems to be less harmful in some countries than in others. The most striking examples are well known as the “East Asian paradox”: countries displaying exceptional growth records despite having thriving corruption cultures. The aim of this paper is to explain the high corruption but fast economic growth puzzle in China by providing firm-level evidence of the relation between corruption and growth and investigating how financial development influences the former relationship. Our empirical results show that corruption is likely to contribute to firms' growth. We further highlight the substitution relationship between corruption and financial development on firm growth. This means that corruption appears not to be a vital constraint on firm growth if financial markets are underdeveloped. However, pervasive corruption deters firm growth where there are more developed financial markets. This implies that fast firm growth will not be observed until a later stage of China's development when financial markets are well-functioning and corruption is under control. Furthermore, the substitution relationship exists in the private and state-owned firms. Geographically, similar results can be seen in the Southeast and Central regions.     

Survey of recent developments

SUMMARY Despite a bomb attack in Jakarta in August, the main financial indicators of macroeconomic health have continued to improve. Inflation is much lower than in 2002, and the exchange rate has remained fairly stable. Public debt as a percentage of GDP continues to fall, and foreign exchange reserves to increase. Deposit and money market interest rates have declined further, although this has yet to translate into significantly lower lending rates. Share prices have also been increasing rapidly, and Moody's recently upgraded Indonesia's credit ratings. The markets responded calmly to the largely political decision to terminate the IMF program at the end of 2003, reassured by a relatively conservative budget for 2004, and by the articulation of a longer-term strategy of balancing the budget by 2005.     

环境不确定性、管理者能力与商业信用融资

选取2017-2021年我国沪深A股上市公司数据，运用多元线性回归模型实证检验了环境不确定性对商业信用融资的影响，并探究管理者能力在环境不确定性与商业信用融资之间的调节作用。研究表明，环境不确定性的提高会显著减少公司的商业信用融资，而管理者能力可以有效缓解二者之间的负向关系，进行稳健性检验后结果依然成立。研究结果对企业缓解商业信用融资约束，以及相关部门规范商业信用市场具有一定借鉴意义。     

商业银行金融支持、商业信用与异质性研发投资

伴随中国经济转型及外部竞争的加剧,创新变得越来越重要。由于研发投资的高风险性和信息不对称等特征导致创新型企业普遍难以获得所需的债务资本。相比于外部间接筹资,与商品交易直接相联系的以分期付款和预付定金等形式存在的商业信用便成为低成本、高效率的融资渠道之一。基于此,通过实证检验商业银行金融支持、商业信用与异质性的研发投资之间的关系,以期寻找化解资本危机的渠道。首先证实了上市公司自身产生的现金流是研发投资的重要资本来源之一。其次,金融发展能够显著加强研发支出规模,且金融发展程度越高,企业规模的影响越小。在单独考察商业银行金融支持与商业信用对研发投资的作用后,结果表明两者均为重要的资本来源。此外,金融支持与商业信用之间存在互补关系,但商业信用对异质性研发的支持力度存在差异。     

Determinants of Trade Credit in the Japanese Manufacturing Sector

This paper examines the determinants of trade credit in Japanese manufacturing companies. The empirical analysis presents evidence that the volume of trade credit is influenced not only by transactional factors but also by financial positions. The empirical test reveals that firms' future business prospects affect the volume of trade credit. Notably, for small firms whose liquidity is constrained, nontransactional factors such as an increase in cash flow reduce the need for trade credit. This paper also finds that trade payables act as a complement to bank loans. The quantitative relationship between trade payables and bank loans suggests that when monetary policy works in the financial markets, it also influences the trade-related credit markets. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2001, 15(2), pp. 160–177. Department of Economics, Fukushima University, 1 Kanayagawa, Fukushima-shi, Fukushima 960-1296, Japan. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E52, G32.     

论信用产权与保险公司信用评级

信用是保险公司经营的基础,而我国保险公司普遍存在信用缺失的现象,其最根本的原因在于信用产权不明确。信用评级制度可以有效地明确信用产权,促进保险公司的信用建设,提高整个市场的效率。因此,加快推进我国保险公司信用评级体系建设具有重要意义。     

基于AHP和DEA的科创型中小企业信用评价研究

我国科创型中小企业普遍缺乏抵押性资产,融资难度大。为减少金融机构与企业之间的信息不对称,提高科创型中小企业的融资能力,构建一套科学、合理的信用指标评价体系显得尤为重要。综合考虑企业的信用状况和经营状况,利用AHP模型计算企业信用评价得分,运用DEA-BCC模型测算企业经济状况得分,综合两者结果构建象限分布图,用来综合评价企业的信用情况。     

The role of market imperfections in the relationship between housing prices and household credit: Evidence from Taiwan

Given the credit market imperfections in Taiwan, this paper examines the threshold effects in the adjustment towards the long‐run equilibrium relationship between housing prices and household credit. The empirical findings verify the potential for regime shifts in the dynamically adjusted relationship between housing prices and household credit. Only when the benefits cover the cost of market imperfections, do housing and credit markets trigger convergence to their long‐run equilibrium. The hidden effect of the limitations on housing and credit markets is to raise the thresholds of the self‐adjustment mechanisms. As a result, economic boom‐bust cycles will be more severe and increase the fragility of financial sectors.