Regulation,Institutions and Aggregate Investment: New Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper investigate the relationship linking investment (capital stock) and structural policies. Using a panel of 32 OECD countries from 1985 to 2013, we show that more stringent product and labour market regulations are associated with less investment (lower capital stock). The paper also sheds light on the existence of non-linear effects of employment protection legislation (EPL) on the capital stock. Several alternative testing methods show that the negative influence of EPL is considerably stronger at higher levels. Finally, and importantly, the paper uncovers important policy interactions between product and labour market policies. Higher levels of product market regulations (covering state control, barriers to entrepreneurship and barriers to trade and investment) tend to amplify the negative relationships between EPL and the capital stock and ETCR and the capital stock. Equally important is the finding that the rule of law and the quality of (legal) institutions alters the overall impact of regulations on capital deepening: better institutions reduce the negative effect of more stringent product and labour market regulations on the capital stock, possibly through the reduction of uncertainty as regards the protection of property rights. This result also implies that the benefit from product and labour market reforms may be smaller in countries with weaker institutions.     

中国与东盟国家贸易对中国经济增长影响的实证研究——基于不同生产要素密集型产品贸易的视角

东盟已连续十几年成为中国第五大贸易伙伴,因此研究中国与东盟贸易对中国经济增长的影响具有重要的意义。本文从不同生产要素密集型产品贸易的角度,运用协整分析技术和脉冲响应函数法,采用1987～2005年的数据,分析中国与东盟国家进出口贸易对中国经济增长的影响。研究显示:1987～2005年,在中国对东盟国家的出口贸易中,产品总体呈现技术密集程度越高,对中国经济增长促进作用越大的特点。但是,1987～2005年间中国自东盟国家进口的技术密集程度高的产品对我国经济增长却没有显现出明显的促进作用。     

International Labour Migration in East Asia: trends, patterns and policy issues

This paper examines emerging patterns of labour migration in East Asia and related policy issues from the perspective of labour-importing countries. Following a survey of the characteristics of labour flows stemming from, but more importantly occurring within, the region, it probes inter-country differences, both in the timing of the entry of migrant workers and the degree of dependency on migrant labour in the context of rapid economic growth and labour market change. There is clear evidence that labour migration is now a structural feature of the economic landscape in these countries. The policy challenge is to design market-based systems for making the new reliance on labour inflows consistent with changing domestic labour market conditions and the priorities of national development policy, while minimising social resentment and adverse implications for political relations with neighbouring labour-sending countries.     

我国企业对东盟直接投资的金融对策研究

随着中国东盟自由贸易区的建成,中国与东盟的服务投资领域进一步的拓展,中国企业在东盟国家的投资将会得到进一步的提升。文章分析中国企业对东盟直接投资方面在金融上所面临的一些制约因素,以及如何改进我国的金融服务和加强金融合作为中国企业投资东盟服务。     

Are China's unit labour costs still competitive? A comparison with ASEAN countries

The rapidly rising wages and renminbi (RMB) revaluation have attracted lively debate about whether China can continue its rapid economic growth by relying on labour‐intensive goods exports. By comparing the competitiveness in labour costs between China and ASEAN countries, with a particular emphasis on unit labour costs, we find that China has lost its competitiveness in labour costs relative to ASEAN countries. However, our results show that some regions in China, such as the northeast and northwest, still have an advantage relative to ASEAN countries. Thus, China can duplicate Akamatsu's Flying Geese Paradigm by transferring labour‐intensive manufacturing industry from its coastal areas to non‐coastal areas.     

Institutional mechanism for ASEAN-India cooperation: Trends and prospects

ASEAN's dynamic structural change and India's imminent economic liberalisation and deregulation are expected to further strengthen the ASEAN-India relations. A key component in this relationshiup is the institutional mechanism that can facilitate investment and trade flows, social and cultural exchanges and technical cooperation. To intensify these links, ASEAN has established a sectoral dialogue partnership with India in 1993, covering trade, investment and tourism areas. The framework for cooperation also provides for private sector representation. In view of this increasingly important relationship, ASEAN has agreed to upgrade India as a Full Dialogue Partner in 1995. Future changes and streamlining of the ASEAN institutional mechanism is expected to further facilitate and strengthen the ASEAN-India relatiionship.     

ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.     

中国-东盟FTA贸易效应实证研究

中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的成立对中国和东盟国家具有重要的经济与政治意义。本文利用一个扩展后的引力模型对CAFTA的贸易效应进行了实证分析。结果显示:CAFTA对区内贸易具有显著扩大效应的同时也显著地促进了与非成员之间的贸易;CAFTA符合"自然的贸易伙伴"的事前贸易关系紧密和空间距离接近标准;同时,CAFTA成员间产品出口结构以互补性为主;进一步降低成员间贸易壁垒、加强贸易合作对CAFTA成员间和世界贸易的扩大具有积极意义。     

Trade Policy Issues in the Asian-Pacific Region:

Throughout the 1980s the Asian-Pacific region (and especially fast Asian countries) has achieved rapid economic growth accompanied by drastic changes in industrial production and trade. In the textile and clothing industry (‘textile’ industry hereafter), exporting countries display the ‘flying geese’ pattern. The first-tier exportec Japan, had retreated by the mid- 1970s. The second-tier exporters, the East Asian newly industrializing economies (NIEs, consisting of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong), are now being replaced by the third-tier, ASEAN and Chinese exporters. The drastic changes in production and trade have resulted from the spread of modern textile production techniques in response to changing comparative advantage. This has been caused by increased labour costs and exchange rate alignment in the first-and second-tier exporters, but it has also been affected by the trade policies of industrial importer countries. The textile industry trade has been tightly managed under the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA), and individual trade flows have been restricted by quota allocation under the MFA. At the current GATT Uruguay Round negotiations the major contracting parties agreed, in the Dunkel text of December 7997, on the gradual phasing out of the MFA restrictions over ten years. How will textile industry trade develop in the absence of the MFA restrictions? This paper focuses on the trade and production of textiles and clothing, but the case of this industry exemplifies important trade policy issues arising from the rapidly changing industrial structure in the Asian-Pacific region. In discussing textile trade policy issues, economists often focus on the MFA. However, the MFA has not produced a watertight regime. Textile production and trade have changed through product and process innovation, new management styles, and the ever-changing tastes of consumers. The MFA restrictions have effected these innovative changes, but the policy issues need to be discussed in this context of industrial change. ¹ 1 The author has published two papers on this issue (Yamazawa 1983, 1989). This paper is a follow-up of earlier discussion. As in past studies, the author has benefited from discussion at the Textile Advisory Committee meetings of Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) and from a field trip to northern China in early 1903.
     

Revenue enhancing tariff reform

Revenue Enhancing Tariff Reform. - Programmes of gradual trade policy reform have been included in most of the structural adjustment packages adopted by developing countries. So far the literature on piecemeal trade policy reform has concentrated on finding reform programmes that improve the welfare of a representative individual. Yet trade taxes are an important source of government revenue in many developing countries. This paper therefore examines tariff reform programmes that are both welfare improving and revenue enhancing. It first determines general conditions under which such a reform will exist and then considers specific reforms of both single tariffs and groups of tariffs. The standard welfare improving reform programmes — proportional and concertina reforms - are also discussed.     

中国—东盟服务贸易一体化的困境摆脱及其前景

运用相关指标对一体化水平进行的研究表明,中国与东盟国家的服务贸易一体化显示出以下特点:跨境贸易规模扩大;双边贸易增长率比单个国家快;以直接投资近似表现的商业存在规模占本国对外直接投资比重大;投资的行业和地区分布非均衡等。现阶段中国—东盟服务贸易一体化水平较低,但增长速度远远超过欧盟等区域组织。中国—东盟服务贸易一体化的前景看好。     

云南与东盟国家开展服务贸易的对策研究——基于《中国东盟服务贸易协议》

中国-东盟《服务贸易协议》于2007年7月1日起正式生效,这是中国-东盟经贸合作领域取得的又一重大成果,并创造更多的服务贸易机会。云南省是开展与东盟国家各项活动的主要省份,这也将对云南省开展与东盟国家的服务贸易带来启示,通过研究,我们将对云南省开展中国与东盟国家服务贸易提出对策。     

Emergence of ASEAN, China and India and the Regional Architecture

The rise of ASEAN, China and India as economic powers is of great significance to regional as well as global economic development. Although their ascendance in the global economy will continue, they will have to go to great pains to meet the new challenges. Considering ASEAN, China and India as a group, due to their differences in economic development levels, economic structures and policy concern priorities, it is difficult for them to formulate a unified position on a range of global issues. ASEAN, China and India must foster an open, transparent and efficient regional as well as global environment. They need to cooperate in designing the architecture to ensure regional as well as global freer trade and investment and more stable finance, and to play more active roles in future global governance and rulemaking.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network

Global trade suffered a significant contraction in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its growth is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic trend. Did the relative importance of countries in the world trade network change as a result of the pandemic? The answer to this question is particularly important for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries because of their relative importance in world trade as well as their strong trade linkages with China, where the COVID-19 virus originated. This paper examines how the world trade network has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on ASEAN countries. Tracking the changes in centrality from January 2000 to March 2021, we find no evidence for most ASEAN and major trading countries that centrality changed significantly after the pandemic began. Our results suggest the resilience of the trade pattern for these countries.     

Asia's contribution to global rebalancing

Developing Asia remains at the core of global payment imbalances. While the geographical concentration of current account imbalances is significant—with the People's Republic of China accounting for the lion's share of the region's current account surplus—how Asia contributes to global rebalancing also depends critically on the newly industrialising economies and larger Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. Given the region's huge diversity, the necessary national macroeconomic and structural policies will vary significantly across Asia's emerging economies. Whereas near‐term rebalancing efforts will be driven primarily by macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, structural reforms are essential for boosting domestic and regional demand as sources of economic growth over medium to long‐term. We argue that regional rebalancing will depend critically on the adoption of deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms and further trade liberalisation to unlock the potential of strong domestic and regional spending—thus reducing Asia's high dependence on extra‐regional demand. Priority policies should include infrastructure spending, competition, trade, financial development, investment, immigration, and other social policies to reduce national savings.     

产业内贸易理论视角下的中国——东盟双边贸易

随着中国-东盟双边贸易结构的不断调整，产业内贸易所占的比重日益扩大，发展趋势逐渐增强，用产业内贸易理论来解释我国与东盟之间的产业内贸易问题就越来越具有说服力，产业内贸易理论已经成为研究我国与东盟双边贸易关系的一个新视角。     

国际劳工标准的贸易效应分析

随着贸易自由化的发展，传统的关税壁垒逐渐下降，然而劳工标准等社会壁垒问题随之产生，劳工标准与贸易交织在一起，其与贸易的联系具有必然性，二者的挂钩对贸易将产生不容忽视的影响。正因为如此，国际劳工标准正日益受到多角度的关注，并引发发达国家与发展中国家之间的争论。文章将主要就劳工标准的贸易效应加以具体分析。     

Trade facilitation in ASEAN countries: harmonisation of logistics policies

This paper studies the effectiveness of the implementation of trade facilitation measures in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We evaluate trade facilitation performance and indicate trade facilitation needs and priorities that vary between ASEAN members. In particular, we examine logistics‐related costs in ASEAN and whether the current level of logistics‐related costs could be a burden or an advantage for ASEAN countries. We also identify critical barriers that have impacts on logistics services related to foreign investment and customs across ASEAN. Finally, we propose recommendations for the harmonisation of logistics policies in ASEAN countries aimed at the development of the ASEAN Economic Community.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

The Dynamics of Intra-industry Trade in ASEAN*

The decision to establish the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by the year 2008 has resulted in producers in all ASEAN countries except Singapore raising concerns relating to potential loss of market share and adjustment pressures. Underlying these concerns is the view that the expected growth in intra-ASEAN trade will be dominated by inter-industry or net trade (NT) rather than intra-industry trade (IIT). If most of the expected growth in trade is intra-industry, however, then the short-run resource re-allocation costs are likely to be lower. In this study, we employ a new methodology to analyse the dynamics of IIT in ASEAN. We overcome problems associated with using movements in the value of the Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index by deriving a formula that decomposes the growth in trade into the contributions of growth in IIT and NT. Our results suggest that the role of IIT in trade growth has been increasing in importance, and thus much of the recent concern that threatens the viability of AFTA may be misplaced.