IS THERE POLICY SPACE TO PROTECT SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURE?

The aim of this paper is to assess the amount of “policy space” available to increase tariff protection in South African agriculture. To this end, formal definitions for agricultural produce, actual import data, applied tariff data and bound tariff rates and tariff quota information were used to investigate the extent to which it is possible and feasible to increase tariffs. The analysis shows that in general the policy space available to South African agriculture is limited because of, among others, WTO binding and treaty obligations under the EU and SADC agreements. Furthermore, it does not make policy sense to increase protection on most other products.     

Bilateral tariff rates in international trade: finished goods versus intermediate goods

In this paper, we examined back-and-forth international transactions through tariff reduction by estimating modified gravity equations for finished goods and intermediate goods separately. Our main findings are as follows. Exports of finished machinery products are negatively associated with not only the importer’s tariff rates on finished machinery products but also the exporter’s tariff rates on machinery parts. Similarly, exports of machinery parts are negatively associated with not only the importer’s tariff rates on machinery parts but also the exporter’s tariff rates on finished machinery products. These results imply that tariff reduction in only one production process in an industry has the potential to drastically change the magnitude of trade in the whole industry.     

Protecting infant industries: Canadian manufacturing and the national policy, 1870–1913

Infant industry protection has been the cornerstone of a debate on tariff policy that extends at least from the eighteenth century to the current day. In contrast to traditional neo-classical models of international trade that imply net negative effects, industrial organization and learning-by-doing trade models describe how protective tariffs can encourage output expansion, productivity improvement, and price reductions. Taking Canada's 1879 National Policy as a natural experiment, we explore the effect of a policy that substantially increased tariff protection to some, but not all, Canadian manufacturing industries. Using treatment intensity and difference-in-differences approaches, we find strong support for the predictions of the new trade models. After 1879, industries that received greater protection experienced faster growth in output and productivity, as well as larger price reductions. The industries targeted by the National Policy also exhibited greater returns to scale and faster learning rates. These results have important implications for the infant-industry debate in addition to addressing a central theme in Canadian economic history,     

双寡头竞争下最优进口贸易政策选择

文章在水平差别产品的伯川德模型中对从量和从价关税进行了分析比较。研究发现,效用函数必须满足一些严格的假设,才能保证征收关税将改善本国社会福利。从量关税的进口限制效果明显强于从价关税。但对于均衡从量关税,总存在一个对能给本国带来更高社会福利的从价关税。两者的差距取决于均衡点本国市场对外国产品的需求弹性,需求弹性越小,社会福利差距越大。     

How serious is the omission of bilateral tariff rates in gravity?

This paper presents a constructed dataset of worldwide bilateral tariff rates to explore the seriousness of omitting bilateral tariff rates from gravity equations. Results indicate, first, that omitting bilateral tariff rates presents no serious issue related to the omitted variable bias because coefficients for the usual gravity variables remain unchanged before and after their inclusion. Second, the widely used dummy variable for regional trade agreements is not a statistical substitute for tariff rates because the coefficient for bilateral tariff rates remains significant even if it is included. Similarly, time-invariant pair fixed effects alongside time-variant importer and exporter fixed effects do not substitute statistically for omitted tariff rates.     

DID GOOD INSTITUTIONS PRODUCE GOOD TARIFFS? EVIDENCE FROM TARIFF PROTECTION IN COLONIAL VICTORIA

Were tariff rates in the Australian colony of Victoria directed towards growth‐enhancing industries or rent seekers? Recent research suggests tariffs may be welfare enhancing if they are directed at industries with positive externalities; something more likely when institutions are strong. Using disaggregated tariff data for the years 1872, 1880, and 1890, we analyse the relationship between industry characteristics and tariffs, finding little evidence that Victorian industries with positive externalities received tariff protection. Our results throw doubt on good institutions necessarily producing good tariff outcomes and suggest the relationship between tariffs and growth is more complex than current studies assume.     

农产品关税政策的内生性检验——基于国际数据的分析

关税等贸易干预政策普遍存在于各个国家的对外贸易政策之中,传统的自由贸易理论无法合理解释现实中的贸易扭曲现象,关税的决定问题得到广泛关注。关税政策具有内生性意味着关税由诸多因素影响而形成,是多方博弈的结果。这一判断需要通过实证研究得以验证,对农产品关税政策的内生性进行检验具有理论价值和实际意义。本研究基于国际视角对农产品关税政策的决定性问题进行实证研究,建立农产品进口和关税联立方程组,探讨各国(地区)农产品关税政策是否具有内生性并分析影响关税政策制定的主要因素。研究揭示出各国(地区)农产品关税内生性的一般规律,并为WTO谈判所处的困境提供了较为合理的解释,即一国在制定关税政策时会考虑诸多因素,多边谈判是各国利益角逐和博弈的过程。因此,应充分发挥WTO成员的利益协调机制,加强国家利益集团的作用。同时,充分估计到WTO农业谈判的艰巨性,不断加强我国参与农业谈判的能力建设。     

Trade Liberalization: Export-market Participation, Productivity Growth, and Innovation

The paper examines how Canadian manufacturing plants have respondedto reductions in tariff barriers between Canada and the restof world over the past two decades. Three main conclusions emergefrom the analysis. First, trade liberalization was a significantfactor behind the strong export growth of the Canadian manufacturingsector. As trade barriers fell, more Canadian plants enteredthe export market and existing exporters increased their shareof shipments sold abroad. Second, export-market participationwas associated with increases in a plant's productivity growth.Third, our analysis identified the presence of three main mechanismsthrough which export-market participation raises productivitygrowth among plants: learning by exporting; exposure to internationalcompetition; and increases in product specialization that allowedfor exploitation of scale economies. Our evidence also showsthat plants that move into export markets increase investmentsin R&D and training to develop capacities for absorbingforeign technologies and international best practices. Finally,entering export markets leads to increases in the number ofadvanced technologies being used, increases in foreign sourcingfor advanced technologies, and improvements in the informationavailable to firms about advanced technologies. It is also associatedwith improvements in the novelty of the innovations that areintroduced.     

企业异质性与对外直接投资区位选择——基于广东省企业层面数据的考察

运用企业异质性模型框架,对企业对外直接投资(OFDI)区位选择进行理论分析,并通过广东省企业层面数据的实证考察,进而探索中国企业生产率异质带来的OFDI区位选择差异。结果表明,进行OFDI的企业具有更高的生产率,并且企业生产率在不同区位所表现出的作用大小不同,其中在亚洲地区效应最为显著;在OFDI扩展边际上,企业生产率越高,其进行OFDI的东道国数量越多;具有更低生产率阈值的东道国,其所吸收的中国OFDI越多。本文也印证了OFDI的跨越贸易壁垒行为,即东道国实施的关税对中国企业OFDI区位选择具有显著的正效应。     

从制度设想到贸易政策:美国碳关税蜕变之路障碍分析

美国试图在其气候变化立法中确立碳关税制度,对来自未实施减排的国家的能源密集型产品采取边境调节措施。这一制度设想以碳关税理论研究为基础。经济上和政治上的正当性是碳关税早期研究的重点,而国内程序性障碍及多边体制下的合法性问题是后危机时代碳关税研究的中心。作者回顾了碳关税理论研究,从国内和国际两个层面对碳关税从制度设想蜕变为美国贸易政策面临的障碍加以分析。一方面,公众对美国经济再次受挫的担忧、气候变化立法对国内产业的影响以及各种利益集团的博弈决定了美国国内不具备碳关税成为贸易政策的现实条件;另一方面,多边体制下碳关税也难以成为符合世贸组织法律的贸易政策,因为不仅碳关税制度设计中存在诸多违反非歧视原则的规定,而且碳关税欲借一般例外条款谋求合法地位也面临许多挑战。中国应未雨绸缪,从容应对。     

The importance of ‘natural’ barriers to trade among developing countries: Some evidence from the transport cost content in Brazilian imports

The paper applies a cif/fob import value comparison of Brazilian imports in order to check the argument of freight rate advantages for North-South shipping against South-South shipping in competing products and to estimate the relation between freight rates and tariff rates in total nominal protection of Brazil against imports from developing countries.The findings suggest that a freight rate advantage for North-South shipping exists in manufactured products, being significant for three of eight analysed regional trade flows. The second result is that tariff rates hamper Brazillian imports from developing countries much more than do freight rates.     

Trade Barriers and the Collapse of World Trade During the Great Depression

Using panel data estimates of export and import equations for 17 countries in the interwar period, this paper estimates the effects of increasing tariff and nontariff trade barriers on worldwide trade over the period 1929 to 1932. The estimates suggest that real world trade contracted approximately 14% because of declining income, 8% as a result of discretionary increases in tariff rates, 5% owing to deflation-induced tariff increases, and a further 6% because of the imposition of nontariff barriers. Allowing for feedback effects from trade barriers on income and prices, discretionary impositions of trade barriers contributed about the same to the trade collapse as the diminishing nominal income.     

China’s exports in a protectionist world

Tariffs, currency wars, and protectionism pose risks for Chinese firms. In theory tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations exert equivalent effects on export volumes. This paper estimates tariff and exchange rate elasticities for China’s exports. The results indicate that, while exchange rates matter, tariffs increases deter exports almost three times as much as equivalent exchange rate appreciations do. The results also indicate that China’s flagship industries such as electronics and machinery are exposed to tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations. The paper then considers how China can promote freer trade to mitigate risks and reduce uncertainty.     

The development tariff and investment in municipal heat supply systems

For years, investment in municipal housing and public utilities (MHPU) has been pronounced a cure-all for the woes of this sector in Russia. Housing services will certainly attract private investors. This assumption is, however, hardly justified for the debt-ridden monopolistic public utilities, where rates are strictly regulated and investment efficiency is low. Private investors expect to return their money. A federal law adopted at the end of 2004 pointed at an obvious source of return on investment, i.e., the investment component of the tariff turning a payback tariff into a development tariff. In this connection, it is important to find out whether the development tariff can be used to secure an acceptable payback period for investments in heat supply systems when the household solvency is low, if tariff rise entails sharp growth in budgetary expenditures on subsidies for the population, and the current heating tariff often fails to reach even the production cost level.     

Firm-level Utilization Rates of Regional Trade Agreements: Importers’ Perspective

This study provides evidence of firm-level utilization of regional trade agreements (RTAs) using transaction-level import data for Thailand. Two stylized facts are presented: some firms use RTA schemes in imports from RTA partner countries, whereas others do not; among firms that import from RTA partner countries under RTA schemes, some use RTA schemes for all transactions but others use them only for some transactions. To interpret these observations, we focus on the role of importers’ demand size. Specifically, we reveal that import firm-product-level RTA utilization rates are higher for larger-size importers in terms of demand, indicating that the difference in the share of utilization of RTA schemes across importers stems from the difference in the importers’ demand size. We also find that the utilization rates are higher when the preference margin, defined as most-favored-nation tariff rate minus RTA rate, is larger.     

Paradoxes in integration theory

This paper presents a formal analysis of how global welfare is affected by changing tariff and subsidy rates. The discussion stresses three types of reform whereby, surprisingly, trade liberalization has the potential to reduce world welfare: a multilateral equi-proportionate reduction of tariffs and subsidies; a reduction of a tariff or subsidy rate which is not extreme; and the formation of a customs union.     

Interest rates, risk, and imperfect markets: puzzles and policies

Traditional theory emphasizes the key role that monetary policycan play through the manipulation of interest rates. But thereare several puzzles that cannot be reconciled with standardmodels. These include: the apparent constancy in interest ratesover extended periods, and changes at other times which appearunrelated to changes in technology and demography; the cyclicalpattern of movements in real interest rates; the impact of nominalnot real interest-rate changes on real variables; and the cyclicalpattern of movements in interest-rate spreads. This paper reachesbeyond the standard competitive equilibrium, perfect information,model of credit markets towards imperfect information models,particularly those that focus on the determinants of bank behaviour.Of the standard models, the money demand model is most deficientin understanding these puzzles. The loanable funds theory anda generalized version of real productivity theory can be reconciledwith imperfect information, and markets and the consequent creditand equity rationing regimes help to explain the puzzles. Specifically,banks may be insensitive to changes in monetary stance owingto risk aversion. There are strong policy implications; it isargued, for instance, that in East Asia raising interest ratesexacerbated economic decline and, rather than contributing toexchange-rate stability, may have induced capital flight asdefault risk increased, lowering risk-adjusted expected returns.     

EMPLOYMENT,CAPITAL, AND PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN URUGUAY

Using a sample of Uruguayan manufacturing establishments we analyze employment, capital, and productivity dynamics over a period of currency appreciation; changes in trade policy; and changes in the institutional setting of wage negotiations. As the relative capital–labor price ratio fell, capital intensity increased. At the same time, there was an increase in labor and total factor productivity. Creation and destruction rates were relatively high and pervasive over time, sectors, establishment size, and establishment age, with exits explaining a sizeable part of destruction rates. Most of the excess reallocation was due to movements “within” rather than “between” sectors. Thus, high reallocation rates were linked to establishment‐level heterogeneity rather than aggregate shocks.     

Short-run Effects of Tariff Reform in Zimbabwe: Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper applies a short-run computable general equilibriummodel for Zimbabwe to analyse how tariff reform could have modifiedthe effects of the actual trade liberalisation that took placein the 1990s. This is important because the trade liberalisationremoved quantitative restrictions but left tariff rates intact.The results show that tariffs on intermediates have held backproduction in traded sectors. Thus, the nature of the tradereform taken contributed to more deindustrialisation than necessary.The results also show the tradeoff with respect to the fiscalbalance, which points to the need to ensure that an alternativetax system is in place before removing customs tax revenue.     

贸易摩擦背景下关税与货币政策反制策略研究

通过将贸易品美元定价约束、外汇噪声交易和关税反制等特征融入两国DSGE模型,文章对贸易摩擦背景下美国进口关税冲击的传导渠道以及中国的关税反制策略与货币应对政策有效性等问题进行了数值分析。研究发现,关税反制措施能够有效地对冲美国加征进口关税对中国实际产出、消费和净出口的消极影响,并有助于抑制人民币实际汇率贬值。若进一步搭配将出口品关税纳入利率调控框架的积极货币政策,对于经济扩张与保持汇率稳定都更加有效。但从长期社会福利角度看,积极货币政策对美国经济也具有明显的正向溢出作用,关税反制则会产生显著的福利转移效应,不采取任何关税与货币应对政策将使中国遭受最大的福利损失。因此,基于"打击最大化、自损最小化"原则,中国应对美国采取坚决有力的关税反击,同时保持货币政策相对中性、克制,以期实现"以战促和"的战略目标。