Singapore's Perspectives on the Proliferation of RTAs in East Asia and Beyond

Abstract

In this article the viewpoints and adopted strategies of Singapore in managing its trading relationship with other countries in the world is discussed. Trade being the lifeline and basis for its economic survival, Singapore has been very active in the negotiation and establishment of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries, practically in every continent. Singapore's activism in bilateral FTAs is a reinforcement of its development strategy of expanding and ensuring market access for local and foreign investors. This is also in alignment with Singapore's pro- business strategy philosophy and the objective of ensuring economic viability. Also Singapore's trade accords go beyond trade liberalization and include “behind the border” impediments to trade; this is reckoned to keep the momentum of trade talk going and to hasten the process of liberalization by inducing other countries to liberalize.     

虚拟经济膨胀：次贷危机的源头

美国次贷危机的深刻背景在于美元主导的国际货币体系与美欧国家虚拟经济过度发展，严重偏离其实体经济水平。货币虚拟化后，经济虚拟化的具体表现为金融自由化。美元占据国际货币主导地位，但失去了发行约束，虚拟经济的过度膨胀与美元发行间形成了循环机制，支撑美国长期的贸易赤字。而新兴市场国家和发展中国家金融不稳定的外部因素，就在于发达国家经济过度虚拟化和国际货币体系不均衡发展。     

Multilateralism,Regionalism, Bilateral and Crossregional Free Trade Arrangements: All Paved with Good Intentions for ASEAN?

Current initiatives in Asia and Asia Pacific regionalism are responses to regionalism happening elsewhere in the context of globalization, information communication technology and knowledge-based economy. The conclusion is that many economies are 'having it both ways' in multilateralism under World Trade Organization (WTO) and new regionalism. The argument is that the 'first best' theory of free trade under multilateralism and WTO have fallen short. A 'second best' theory of new regionalism has been acknowledged by the Doha ministerial declaration to complement and supplement WTO. Both Asia challenged Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are challenged by ASEAN Plus Three (APT), which originated from the Asian crisis in the failed Asian Monetary Fund (AMF).
  Singapore has responded to these challenges in bilateral trading agreements, driven by its idiosyncratic features of a small, city–state economy and frustrated by laggard ASEAN. Increasingly, there is a divergence in macroeconomic policy between Singapore and ASEAN in terms of openness and competition. The dilemma in Singapore's strategy of bilateral trading agreements and foreign economic trade policy is precisely this divergence in macroeconomic philosophy and policy. The pressure on ASEAN is no less from APT, China and regionalism elsewhere than from Singapore. However, the present paper concedes that bilateral and crossregional trading arrangements are still second best, and that broader regionalism and multilateralism are still superior. With so many regional trading arrangements and emerging competition policy there may be rules of origin or 'spaghetti bowl' effects for Singapore. In 'realpolitiks' and real political economy, the balancing of gains and benefits is not easy.     

Competing liberalizations: tariffs and trade in the twenty-first century

Review of World Economics - This paper proposes a unique overview of trade policies since 2001, based on detailed data on tariffs and trade covering 130 countries. It shows that regionalism has...     

全球价值链视角的数字贸易发展:战略定位与中国路径

作为一种新型的贸易形式,数字贸易发展对国际贸易格局产生了深远影响,成为推动全球价值链重构的重要动力。在以数字贸易为主导的全球化新时代,数字贸易发展推动数字产品嵌入全球价值链,改变了全球价值创造模式和全球价值链收入分配格局,形成了全新的价值链,推动了全球价值链的转型和重构。以美欧日为代表的发达经济体,为了进一步巩固与强化数字贸易时代全球价值链的主导权,采用多举措提升数字贸易的战略定位。为推动迈向全球价值链中高端,我国应紧紧抓住数字贸易发展机遇,提升数字贸易的战略定位,加强数字贸易全球价值链的基础理论研究,构建以中国为核心的数字贸易区域价值链,改善数字贸易发展制度环境,构建支撑数字贸易发展的政策体系,加快数字化人才队伍建设。     

Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa

This paper examines the effects of financial and trade liberalization on growth volatility of real output and consumption in Africa. Our results suggest trade liberalization is associated with greater output and consumption growth volatility while financial liberalization increases the efficacy of consumption smoothing and stabilizes income and consumption growth. In addition, we find financial market depth and institutional quality operate jointly with trade and financial openness to reduce volatility in output and consumption growth. There is also evidence that good institutions which foster low inflation levels and volatility promote consumption and output growth stability.     

Hungary's export prospects in the EC market

Political changes in Eastern Europe will help to cement improving economic relations between those countries and the EC, accelerating a trend that flows in part from the continuing economic difficulties in Eastern Europe. Hungary has little alternative but to seek to continue strengthening these ties. Membership in the EC could lead to an expansion of Hungarian exports to the Communities of some 48 percent, with the main gains occurring for meats, iron and steel, fruit and vegetables, textiles, and clothing. Even if membership is unattainable, Hungary stands to gain considerably from an improvement in its standing in the EC pyramid of privileges, and must seek some closer relationship with the EC, encompassing agriculture as well as manufactures, and tariffs and non-tariff barriers.     

新世纪企业组织形式探讨

本文试图从现代企业制度所推崇的有限责任公司的历史发展及科学技术对企业组织形式的推动和变革出发 ,对新世纪中公司的变革作出推断     

Globalization, Growth, and the Poor

This paper discusses the possible causal relationships and empirical associations between globalization and growth, growth and poverty reduction, and, finally, globalization and poverty reduction. We argue that globalization can contribute much to poverty reduction both directly and by accelerating growth. Second, the contributions of redistributive policies are very likely to be less than the contribution of greater access to markets, more competitive insurance and financial markets, and improved institutions to poverty reduction. The potential effect of greater international integration on poverty reduction, however, is limited by domestic policy failures in developing countries and also by continued protectionism, particularly in developed countries.     

Explaining liberalization commitments in financial services trade

The paper examines the determinants of market access commitments in international financial services trade in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Based on a theoretical model, it empirically investigates the role of domestic political economy forces, international bargaining considerations, and the state of complementary policy. The empirical results confirm the relevance of the model in explaining banking and (to a somewhat lesser degree) securities services liberalization commitments. The findings imply that those who seek greater access to developing country markets for financial services must do more to counter protectionism at home in areas of export interest for developing countries. JEL no. D78, F13, G20     

Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand

The international trade literature suggests trade concentration is an important factor in the amplification of the global financial crisis. However, the relationship between trade concentration and transmission of the subprime crisis is empirically weak. Thailand is one of the countries with declining reliance on the advanced economies, yet it was greatly affected by the recent crisis. This might result because the formation of global supply chains creates both direct and indirect trade linkages. In this paper, the authors include the effects of both linkages to examine their connection to the transmission of external shocks, as experienced by the Thai economy. If total trade linkages are calculated, Thailand is still found to be highly exposed to advanced markets. Simulation using a computational general equilibrium model also indicates that the country was seriously affected by the financial crisis through indirect channels.     

全球经济将陷入滞胀的深渊:基于政府救市行动的分析

针对世界各国政府应对全球金融危机的主要救市行动,如国有化、降息、加强金融监管、对银行和企业注资、减税、贸易保护、扩大政府公共支出,笔者从宏观视角出发,利用现代西方经济学的相关理论,对这些救市政策及行动进行了逐个分析。研究发现,这些政府主导的救市行动将使全球性经济陷入"滞胀"的深渊,并且,全球性的经济停滞于通货膨胀将会在未来一个较长的时期内持续存在。     

Wage and employment effects in the EU of international trade with the emerging economies

The paper investigates whether significant HOS effects are present in the EU from trade liberalization with the emerging economies. Regarding wage inequality, there is only evidence of a trade-induced technological change, but biased towards thelower-skilled-labor-intensive sectors. Relative wages in the EU member states are not affected differently. Trade liberalization under ‘European assumptions’, however, could affect primarily relative factor demand. A flexible cost function approach shows that import competition from the emerging economies influenced relative labor demand in favor of the higher skilled, implying an intrasectoral rather than an intersectoral specialization in skill-intensive activities. JEL no. F11, F14     

国际贸易产品污染转移的理论研究

各国国际分工、产业结构、能源利用效率以及贸易结构等方面的差异,必然造成国际贸易过程中存在污染排放转移问题。本文首先对国外学者对国际贸易产品污染转移的相关理论和实证研究文献进行了梳理,其次对学者对中国贸易品的污染转移研究文献进行总结。     

贸易开放度、劳动力市场扭曲与全要素生产率——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

基于空间计量模型,使用中国省级层面数据探究劳动力市场扭曲程度和贸易依存度对地区全要素生产率的影响.研究结果表明,劳动力市场扭曲抑制了地区经济增长,贸易开放水平对经济发展有着正向促进作用.对比中国不同区域可以发现,东部地区在劳动力市场与国际贸易市场上发展较为完善,中西部地区还需缓和中西部地区农业部门与非农部门的劳动力市场不平衡、增加贸易对外开放程度、增加企业自主研发等方式来提升地区全要素生产率.     

Capital inflows, financial repression, and macroeconomic policy in India since the reforms

Since the early 1990s the Indian economy has seen a considerablerelaxation of controls, as a consequence of which it has witnessedunprecedented growth. This is especially remarkable in the externalsector. In this paper I evaluate the progress made on the macroeconomicfront and address the possibility of opening up the capitalaccount of the balance of payments. I show that given the weaknessin the financial sector and the government finances, it maybe dangerous to speed up the process of opening up the capitalaccount further.     

贸易自由化进程的国家利益分析

文章以国家利益为视角,分析从GATT到WTO的贸易自由化进程,说明国家利益是贸易自由化的内在动力,中国在贸易自由化进程中既要遵循国际惯例,更要遵循“国家利益原则”。