金融发展对农民收入增长的影响——来自中国面板数据的再检视

中国金融发展对农民收入增长的影响目前尚未形成定论。利用1978—2006年的省级面板数据,以银行贷款总额占同期GDP的比重作为衡量金融发展水平的指标,检验中国金融发展对农民收入增长的影响,结果显示金融发展对农民收入增长具有显著的正向影响,但金融中介的低效率阻碍了金融发展对农民收入促进作用的进一步提升。因此,要更好地发挥金融对农民收入增长的促进作用,形成从农业信贷资金到农业投资的高效转化的有效监控机制,就不能脱离其他一系列农村改革措施。     

Internal vs External Financing of R&D

The empirical evidence suggests that while small firms in United States, United Kingdom and Canada rely on internal funds for financing R&D, similar firms in Japan, Germany and France have access to bank loans. In this paper, we analyze the financial decisions of small firms willing to invest in R&D. We find that their high ratio of intangible assets, along with the high risk nature of their investments, can explain their inability to raise debt in external capital markets. We also show that financing R&D with bank loans might be feasible, especially, if banks are willing to monitor the investment activities of their clients.     

Banking Reforms for the 21st Century: A Perfectly Stable Banking System Based on Financial Innovations*

Although bank loans themselves are somewhat illiquid because of private information, most of their cashflows are not. Recent financial innovations allow commercial loans to be liquefied via credit derivatives and actual and synthetic securitizations. The loan originating bank holds the remaining illiquid equity tranche containing the concentrated credit risk, private information rent and the ‘excess spread’ that incentivize the bank to continue to monitor and service the loans. Empirically, we find that the average size of the equity tranche is about 3% for the representative commercial loan portfolios in our sample. The liquefaction of bank loans makes possible a banking system that restricts the guaranteed accounts to be backed by 100% reserves and the non‐guaranteed deposits to be backed by liquid securitized loan tranches, while retaining the deposit‐lending synergy. Such a system is perfectly safe without deposit insurance and it renders banks bankruptcy‐remote without sacrificing a bank's traditional role as a financial intermediary.     

Financial underdevelopment,distorted lending and export market survival

This paper examines the impact of financial development on exporter survival in foreign markets with Chinese firm-level data over the period 1998–2008. We measure financial development using the size, lending efficiency, term structure of bank loans and degree of state intervention in financial resource allocation, respectively. We find that a larger scale and greater efficiency of bank lending and less state intervention facilitate while the relative abundance of long-term credit deteriorates exporter survival. These effects are more pronounced for private exporters compared with state-owned exporters. For foreign-invested exporters, weakened state intervention is of relatively great importance. We attribute this disproportional impact to the government's intervention in funding investment and the distortional lending of banks, which varies across regions and industries with different levels of presence of state-owned enterprises.     

Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration: Theory and Facts

This paper provides a selective review of the recent analytical and empirical literature on the benefits and costs of international financial integration. It discusses the impact of financial openness and capital flows on consumption, investment and growth, as well as the impact of foreign bank entry on the domestic financial system. It argues that, for small open developing countries, the benefits of financial integration are mostly long term in nature, whereas risks can be significant in the short run. Careful preparation and management are therefore essential to ensure that short‐run costs do not lead to policy reversals. It also stresses that the empirical evidence on the impact of foreign direct investment on domestic capital formation and growth, as well as on the effects of foreign bank entry, should be viewed with caution. In particular, the possibility that foreign bank penetration may lead to adverse changes in the allocation of credit cannot be dismissed on the basis of the existing evidence.     

Possible Dynamic Effects of AFTA for the New Member Countries

We discuss the possible dynamic benefits of economic integration for the new members of ASEAN. Direct evidence on regional integration and growth is weak, but three indirect channels are possible. Openness increases access to foreign knowledge, which could help productivity growth. Trade liberalisation is likely to stimulate investment and might promote the integration of the regional production network. Binding liberalisation under AFTA would help ‘lock‐in’ and accelerate liberal economic reforms. These gains are not automatic, however. Discriminatory liberalisation will switch imports from sources with high stocks of knowledge towards ASEAN countries, which have lower stocks, and so may lower productivity growth. We term this ‘dynamic’ trade diversion. In addition, local absorptive capabilities must be developed to benefit fully from technology transfer. Finally, we recommend extending AFTA commitments on an MFN basis in order to avoid static and dynamic trade diversions.     

An understanding of baby boomers' attitudes toward financial services products in Ghana

This study employed a self‐completion questionnaire to determine the financial needs and specific market characteristics of baby boomers (BBs) in Ghana. The results reveal that BBs are financially savvy and conscious of where to live after retirement. Due to low income and overreliance on families in time of sickness, life insurance is not often purchased. The respondents choose a bank that offers efficient customer services and low rates of interest on loans, and do not perceive long‐term investment to be profitable. The most effective forms of communication are radio, TV, and word of mouth. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Does foreign investment liberalisation enhance women's economic status? Micro‐evidence from urban China

This paper analyses the effects of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on female earnings and women's economic status in households using Chinese Urban Household Survey data from 1997 to 2008. The identification exploits the substantial relaxation of foreign investment regulations immediately after China's accession to the WTO in 2002. The difference‐in‐differences estimation results show that FDI liberalisation has improved women's economic status significantly by increasing female earnings in sectors more exposed to FDI. Further analyses indicate that foreign investment liberalisation facilitates the promotion of female employees in their career ladders and increases their skill premium, which are two important channels through which women enhance their economic independence.     

Problem‐Solving Orientations,Financial Self‐Efficacy,and Student‐Loan Repayment Stress

Using data acquired from a four‐time longitudinal survey, we tested a model linking two measures of self‐agency, i.e., problem‐solving orientations and financial self‐efficacy, to student‐loan repayment stress. Of those participants who responded at Wave 4 (N = 855) of a longitudinal study, 396 who had acquired student loans were included in our structural equation model's Mplus analysis. After we controlled for gender, college financial education, ethnicity, and participant annual income, we found that both financial self‐efficacy and negative problem‐solving orientation were related to perceived difficulty. More specifically, those participants with a greater financial self‐efficacy at Wave 4 perceived less difficulty in paying off their loans, while those with a more negative problem‐solving orientation perceived more difficulty in paying off their loans. We also found perceived difficulty to be directly related to the actual difficulty of repaying a loan, and this perceived difficulty was, in turn, associated with loan‐specific stress. We provide implications for financial education.     

Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel

Emerging markets' financial institutions often face a mismatch in the currency denominations of their liabilities (foreign currency-denominated debt raised from foreign lenders) and their assets (domestic currency loans to domestic borrowers). We study the effect of this mismatch on monetary policy in a sticky-price, dynamic general-equilibrium small open economy model in which the country default-risk premium depends on domestic banks' balance sheets due to asymmetric information. A fixed exchange rate rule that stabilizes bank balance sheets offers greater stability than does an interest rate rule that targets inflation to offset the real effects of sticky-prices.     

Bank Work Experience Versus Political Connections: Which Matters for Bank Loan Financing?

This paper examines how bank lending decisions are affected either by executives’ connections with banks, through their former banking experience, or by their political connections with governments, using a sample of bank loans granted to Chinese listed non‐state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) from 2003 to 2010. We find that bank loans are more closely related to profitability for firms with bank connections, while firms’ political connections weaken this relationship. We further find that the influence of bank connections is more significant for firms from less supported industries or less developed regions. Furthermore, firms with bank connections are less likely to become financially distressed after the initiation of their bank loans and experience higher future stock returns, while firms with political connections experience the opposite outcome. Overall, our results indicate that in the context of a relationship‐based economy like China, firms’ connections with banks create value by alleviating information asymmetry and improving banks’ lending decisions, while political connections result in capital misallocation and subsequent deterioration in performance.     

Financial capability and emergency savings among South Africans living above and below the poverty line

Emergency savings provide a buffer against financial shocks, particularly among low‐income households. Despite the importance of these funds in lessening financial hardship, many households have not set aside emergency funds. It has been suggested that financial capability may play a role in financial behaviour. Therefore, this study considers whether financial capability is associated with saving for emergencies and whether there are differences in factors that predict emergency savings behaviour among those living below and above the poverty line. Using data from a sample of South Africans, logistic regression is used to determine the predictors of emergency savings. The study finds that those with higher levels of financial capability, related to financial self‐efficacy and having access to a bank account, are more likely to have emergency savings compared with those with lower levels of financial capability. However, no evidence is found to suggest a relationship between objectively measured financial knowledge and emergency savings. Therefore, the findings suggest that self‐assessed financial ability, as measured by financial self‐efficacy, might be more important than objectively assessed ability in the context of individuals making responsible financial choices. Differences in the predictors of emergency savings for those living above and below the poverty line related to socioeconomic and demographic differences, whereas the same financial capability predictors were significant predictors in both samples. The study provides unique insights into the predictors of emergency savings in a developing market context and identifies the characteristics of those who are likely to be financially resilient to unexpected economic shocks. The importance of the broader financial capability construct in predicting emergency savings, for both those living above and below the poverty line, suggests that programmes aimed at encouraging emergency savings should focus on enhancing financial self‐efficacy and financial inclusion.     

Migrants’ Remittances and Financial Development: Macro‐ and Micro‐Level Evidence of a Perverse Relationship

Financial development is commonly identified as an important condition for fostering investment and economic growth. It is also believed that migrants’ remittances stimulate financial development in the receiving economy, contributing indirectly to economic growth. We explore the relationship between remittances and financial development using macro‐ and micro‐level data. From cross‐country panel data, we find evidence of a negative relationship between remittances and financial deepening in developing countries. Using household survey data from a study of migrants’ remittances in two CIS countries, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan, we also investigate the relationship between remittances, financial intermediation and ‘financial literacy’ among remittance‐receiving households. While we find some evidence of a positive, albeit weak, relationship for Kyrgyzstan, in Azerbaijan, the relatively more financially developed economy, we uncover a strong perverse relationship. Remittances appear to deter bank intermediation and use of formal banking services. Possible reasons are explored and areas for further investigation identified.     

Liquidity and macroeconomic management in emerging markets

Emerging markets have received considerable attention for foreign investment and international diversification due to the possibility of higher earnings and a low level of integration with global equity markets. These high returns often need to be balanced by the high liquidity costs of trading in illiquid emerging markets. Several studies have shown that central bank and government policies are significant determinants of market liquidity. We investigate the influence of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the market and firm level liquidity of eight emerging stock markets of Asia. Using four different (il)liquidity measures and nine macroeconomic variables, we find that changes in the money supply, government expenditure and private borrowing significantly affect stock market liquidity. Illiquidity is also strongly affected by the bank rate, short-term interest rate and government borrowing. We demonstrate that ‘crowding out’ and ‘cost of funds’ effects exist in these markets. Other major findings are that some markets are more sensitive to local macroeconomic news than world factors, the impact on size based portfolios largely depends on the instruments used by the central banks and government, the liquidity of the manufacturing sector is affected by changes in any policy variables, financial institutions are only influenced by monetary policy variables, and the service sector is least affected.     

SMEs,foreign direct investment and financial constraints: The case of Belgium

This paper explores the problems experienced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with international ambitions in gaining access to debt and equity finance for foreign direct investment (FDI) projects. We develop several arguments for why such small businesses are expected to face severe financing constraints for foreign investments and provide an explorative empirical study with both the demand and supply side of FDI finance. We have interviewed thirty-two Belgian SMEs that carry out FDI, five banks and five venture capitalists. Based on the SME discussions, we have composed a questionnaire that was sent to the interviewed SMEs. The information problems and lack of collateral that often characterize international investment, the home bias of financiers and the capital gearing method used by banks to evaluate small firms’ foreign projects give rise to financial constraints for SMEs’ FDI projects. The reported finance gap hinders small firms’ (international) development and leads to suboptimal home and FDI host country development.     

信贷资金融资服务效率与融资服务功能--基于中小企业的问卷调查

以6地区339家企业的问卷调查数据为基础对政策性银行贷款、商业性银行贷款、民间信贷三种资金为中小企业融资服务的效率进行实证考察,结果显示：三种资金对中小企业发展起正向促进作用,政策性资金和民间信贷资金融资服务效率高于商业性银行资金;三种资金投向具有规模企业偏好,与扶持小微企业发展的实践相矛盾;三种信贷资金行业服务效率差异明显,政策性资金对高新技术类企业融资服务效率高;民间信贷资金融资服务对象定位不明确,影响了其为中小企业服务的综合效率,亟需政策的规范和引导;在中小企业融资服务体系中三种资金具有联动效应。这些结论为合理界定三种信贷资金在中小企业融资服务体系中的服务功能和服务区间提供了依据。     

“Lending by example”: Direct and indirect effects of foreign banks in emerging markets

Using a novel dataset that allows us to trace the bank relationships of a sample of mostly unlisted firms, we explore which borrowers are able to benefit from foreign bank presence in emerging markets. Our results suggest that the limits to financial integration are less tight than the static picture of firm-bank relationships implies. Even though foreign banks are more likely to engage large and foreign-owned firms, after an acquisition, a bank is 20% less likely to terminate a relationship with a firm if the acquirer is foreign rather than domestic. Most importantly, within a credit market, firms appear to have the same access to financial loans and ability to invest whether they borrow from a foreign bank or not, while foreign banks benefit all firms by indirectly enhancing credit access.     

基于脉冲响应函数的技术创新资金结构研究

采用时间序列回归及脉冲响应函数方法,分析我国汽车产业创新资金结构问题。实证研究表明,银行贷款和投资者权益对企业研究与开发的资金投入强度影响为负,中央及地方的财政支出和研究与开发资金投入强度正相关。由此可以看出,我国汽车产业不能单纯依靠财政支出,还应加强技术创新资金的自我筹集能力,使研究与开发活动逐步适应市场发展规律。     

Firm Size,Source of Finance,and Growth - Evidence from China

Using a comprehensive firm-level data set from China spanning the period 1998–2005, this study investigates the relationship between firm size, financing sources, and total factor productivity growth. Controlling for the endogeneity of financing sources, we find that firm size plays an important role in the way financial structure affects the growth process. Domestic bank loans are more effective for bigger firms, while self-raised finance is more beneficial to smaller firms’ growth. We also uncover evidence that ownership mediates the relationship between firm size, finance, and growth.     

Liberalisation and Protection under Overlapping Free Trade Agreements: Dynamic Interplay between Free Trade Agreements and Investment

Two decades into the most recent wave of regionalism many of its implications remain to be fully understood. A vast literature has explored the impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on investment flows, but less attention has been given to how existing patterns of investment alter FTA liberalisation. It is contended here that the dynamic interplay between overlapping FTA areas and the investment sunk in them shapes governments' and firms' positions regarding further FTA liberalisation. During trade negotiations, a country may decide to exclude a sector from FTA liberalisation to prevent (concession prevention) future FTA partners from making similar demands. Concession prevention could also occur when a foreign firm, holding a dominant market position in a host country, relinquishes liberalisation demands in an FTA between host and home countries to prevent its current position being eroded if the host country grants similar (or better) concessions to competing firms from other countries in future FTAs. Conversely, investment sunk into a country's sensitive sector in the territory of partners from previous FTAs could pre‐empt (concession pre‐emption) the protectionist position of that country when it subsequently negotiates FTAs with the investment‐source countries. These arguments were tested in the negotiations around the liberalisation of the automotive industry that Thailand and Malaysia had with Japan in their respective bilateral FTAs. The distinct interaction between investment and the FTAs in which these countries participate resulted either in entrenchment of protectionism in the sector or its liberalisation across subsequent FTAs.