试析东盟5国区域贸易合作的局限性

目前,东盟区域的贸易合作虽然能够在一定程度上促进区域内的贸易,但其作用还很有限。通过对东盟5国的产业结构、对外贸易结构、各国的比较优势和竞争关系的深入研究,明确了东盟5国之间的互补性、竞争性和东盟区域贸易合作存在的局限性。     

人民币周边化与东盟国家“货币锚”调整的效应分析

人民币的周边化是一个由计价结算手段生成储备货币的过程,其路径应该是先升值至一个外汇市场上可接受的均衡位置,然后再实行由市场定价的浮动汇率制度。本文对2000年1月1日到2010年8月10日东盟主要国家的货币和国际货币及人民币进行了回归,发现自2005年7月21日人民币升值以来,美元在东盟国家"货币锚"的地位在下降,人民币在东盟确立了强势货币的地位,东盟主要国家的"货币锚"调整为人民币、日元和欧元。东盟国家"货币锚"的多样化,对于应对国际金融危机主要国际货币币值的大幅度波动是有利的。而作为这一过程的另外一个方面,人民币必定会成为东盟国家的储备货币,人民币的国际化进程也会得到加快。     

广西区域物流空间布局规划的构建

基于区域经济与区域物流发展的相似性,本文将用于区域经济发展的非均衡发展理论用来指导区域物流规划工作;遵循"增长极"规划原理、"梯度推进"规划原理和"区域分工"规划原理,本文示范性制定出了广西区域物流空间布局规划的内容。     

东盟贸易发展动态(1990～2007)：全球性和区域性

文章集中研究1990～2007年东盟国家贸易发展问题,得出自由化背景下东盟贸易发展的全球性和区域性特征.通过引入和建立全球层面的出口依存度、贸易贡献度和贸易自由度,区域层面的区域内贸易集中度、贸易地区倾向性和贸易伙伴排名等六个指标,全面研究东盟贸易发展问题,并对中国对东盟发展经贸关系提了几点看法.     

东亚区域货币联盟实践、前景与对策

东亚区域货币联盟得到大多数理论研究的支持,各国政府也表现出较大的兴趣,东盟10+3货币互换安排和亚洲债券基金是东亚货币金融合作的两个标志性事件。在可预见的将来,东亚有可能出现某种松散的货币联盟,以流动性提供机制为核心、建立相对灵活的汇率稳定机制、以其他经济领域一体化为基础、保持“亚洲传统”的特色,是东亚货币联盟的四大特点。中国应该采取积极、灵活的政策,在全面经济金融合作的基础上支持区域货币联盟,并在其中发挥应有的作用。     

中国-东盟区域经济一体化的产业转移效应

在区域经济一体化中,国际产业转移呈现出新的特点成员国的自愿性大大超过全球性的多边贸易体制;将安排更多的经济合作内容;促进成员国之间开展"产业内贸易";促进成员国之间开展"产业内投资".中国一东盟之间的区域经济一体化对产业转移的推动体现在经济资源配置进入更广阔的空间,贸易自由将推动投资自由,中国市场拓展有利于东盟的经济发展;区域经济一体化之下的产业转移给中国与东盟都带来发展效应.     

人民币货币价值的稳定性分析——人民币成为区域主导货币的基础

随着我国经济实力的不断增强,我国和人民币在东亚区域货币合作进程中的地位和作用日益显现。人民币能否在东亚货币竞争中找到合理的地位,进而成为区域主导货币,其稳定的货币价值是最基本的要求和基础。本文将分别通过分析人民币对内价值、对外价值的稳定性及其稳定的政治基础,进而指出人民币已初步具备成为东亚区域主导货币的条件。     

中国参与区域贸易安排:经济影响与国际比较

在多边贸易谈判进展缓慢的背景下,区域贸易安排已经成为推动贸易自由化的一条战略途径.世纪之交,我国开始积极参与各种区域贸易安排,显示出我国在推动全球贸易自由化中的积极立场.其中,农产品的贸易安排成为我国参与的一大特点.     

The Fiscal Framework in a Currency Union: Lessons from a Comparison between the Euro Area and the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

This paper draws out lessons from the euro area (EA) that are transferable to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and other Caribbean economies with fixed exchange rates. Based on observations from both the EA and the ECCU, we present a new policy framework which is capable of imposing fiscal discipline, with the aim of avoiding the risk of unsustainable fiscal policies reappearing and of preventing monetary policy from being undermined by undisciplined national governments. In the ECCU case, we find that fiscal deficits are more a result of financial and trade imbalances than fiscal indiscipline per se. Consequently, constraints on overall debt, public and private, rather than direct limits on endogenous public deficits, appear to be the appropriate response.     

The Unifying Role of the Single Currency

Perhaps the single most tangible symbol of the European Union is its single currency, the euro. Within the European Economic and Monetary Union, it was seen as a tool to ensure that European integration would be truly irreversible. However, the euro has also contributed to cleavages and asymmetries. This article reviews whether the euro can fulfil the unifying role envisioned for it, examing the importance of the euro in four crucial European relationships.     

建立地区经济的区域性组织的生态经济学基础

本文认为,优化地区经济的区域组织机构是地区发展中最为重要的内容之一。从生态经济学意义上建立地区经济的区域性组织,其基本要点有二:一是在自然与经济体之间及经济体内部各组成部分之间建立起经济高效发展、生态环境可持续利用的和谐关系;二是评价自然景观的潜在功能。用生态经济学方法来解决地区机构设置问题,既能保证自然资源得到合理利用,又能使地区生产力在生态可承受的范围内得到发展。     

Currency competition in a fundamental model of money

We study how two fiat monies, one safe and one risky, compete in a decentralized trading environment. The currencies' equilibrium values, their transaction velocities and agents' spending patterns are endogenously determined. We derive conditions under which agents holding diversified currency portfolios spend the safe currency first and hold the risky one for later purchases. We also examine when the reverse spending pattern is optimal. Traders generally favor dealing in the safe currency, unless trade frictions and the currency risk is low. As risk increases or trading becomes more difficult, the transaction velocity and value of the safe money increases.     

应促进人民币成为世界货币之一

促进人民币成为世界货币之一,是个大问题也可能是一个有争议的问题.对此我有些不成熟的想法,供大家批评和参考.     

The ‘ASEAN Way’ and ASEAN’s development gap with Cambodia,Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam: a critical view

ABSTRACT

The ‘ASEAN Way’, as an approach to interstate relations within ASEAN, is analysed in relation to the ‘reduction of the development gap’ (RDG) with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV). It is found that convergence of income per capita and development levels of CLMV is only to a limited extend the result of RDG and its pace is too slow. With the help of the Asian Development Bank and other regional and multilateral financial institutions, the development cooperation funds thus assembled, could leverage a multitude of loans and funds from donor organizations and countries, including the EU and its member countries.     

Demographic development in ASEAN: a comparative overview

A comparative overview of recent demographic developments in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region is presented. Countries discussed include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Separate consideration is given to mortality; fertility; and migration, spatial distribution, and employment. A final section is concerned with emerging issues and directions for population policy.     

近代以来世界通货信用演进与未来超主权数字货币构想

本文在梳理近代以来世界通货演进脉络基础上,提出了世界通货信用观,认为通货的本质是信用,通货信用可从通货属性、通货价值以及通货用户评价三大维度来测度。从金属货币、信用货币向数字货币过渡符合通货变化发展规律。通货演进的同时,人们对通货的信用认知水平也在提高。但一国主权货币充当世界货币是不公平的,大多数国家普遍呼吁超主权货币的诞生与发展。随着以区块链为代表的算法技术和人工智能、量子技术等新技术的发展,超主权数字货币的诞生已经成为可能。超主权数字货币的发展,需要形成信用共识基础,需要公正合理的“锚”,需要发行、存储与清算等规则和标准体系,需要分步实施。数字人民币无意取代当下的美元和欧元,伴随着数字人民币的实践,中国应在推动超主权数字货币构建中发挥应有作用。     

Global Role of ASEAN

It is really something that ASEAN ,made up of only small-and medium-sized countries-even including some of the poorest in the world-can join hands and succeed.[第一段]     

Be Fully Prepared for A Currency War

By launching a currency war against China, the U.S. aims to prompt a diversion in global wealth allocation. With RMB in the center of the global currency war, Chinas economy is dancing on the rope in striving to strike an internal and external balance. If China＇s monetary policy is ＂kidnapped＂ by America, the consequences will be unimaginably disastrous. Low interest rate in the longrun will probably result in the same bubble economy as Japan had after the Plaza Accord, which can even be stabbed, Thus, it is necessary to have a systematic long-term strategy as to how to look after both partial and overall interests.