India's Trade Policy Reforms and Industry Competitiveness in the 1980s

The paper proposes a method of measuring and analyzing competitiveness, and applies it to Indian manufacturing data of 1980/81, 1987/88 and 1991/92. The method consists of computing a unit cost ration and breaking it down into various components, ditinguishing between comparative advantage measured at shadow prices, and competitive advantage measured at market prices. The difference, equal to the sum of all price ditortions, may enhance or diminish competitiveness, depending on whether the distortions are cost‐increasing or ‐decreasing. The study reviews first the limited trade reforms of the 1980s and examines whether they have led to increased competitiveness. Although the present study is limited to less than the full potential of the method, due to lack of adequate data, it demonstrates, that the policy changes of the 1980s have failed to enhance the competitiveness of the industrial sector as a whole, while some industries have undergone substantive changes. In three industry case studies the results are compared with the findings of earlir studies.     

Granting preferential market access in services sequentially versus jointly with goods

Despite the cost and resource‐effectiveness of joint trade negotiations and complementarities between goods and services‐trade flows, more than 12% of the 132 WTO‐notified services‐trade agreements (STAs) in force until August 2015 were entered into effect sequentially to goods‐trade accords. This stylised fact motivates our study of the determinants of joint versus sequential negotiation/accession of goods and services accords, a subject hitherto unexplored in the growing literature on the determinants of STA membership. Our results suggest larger marginal effects of fundamental economic, geographic, institutional, doing business and services regulatory factors on the propensity of joint negotiation/accession compared to STA formation alone. Moreover, cultural‐distance variables are only found to affect the likelihood of joint preferential liberalisation of goods and services trade, without influencing STA‐only membership.     

Do we need deeper trade agreements for GVCs or just a BIT?

The paper investigates two policies geared towards stimulating and shaping global value chains (GVCs), namely deep regional trade agreements (DRTAs) and bilateral investment treaties (BITs). In an augmented gravity model, we test the impact of both policies on a variety of trade in value added indicators. We find that both policies are likely to increase GVC trade, although their transmission channels differ. While backward linkages are stimulated through both BITs and DRTAs, forward linkages respond only to DRTAs. The estimates suggest that negotiating a DRTA with investment provisions has a higher impact on trade in value added than signing a shallow RTA and a separate BIT.     

中日经贸关系的战略思考

近两年,中日两国的经贸关系因历史和政治原因而受到了一定的影响,中国和日本都是东亚地区的重要国家,中日两国之间的经贸关系不仅影响着各自国家的经济发展,也影响着东亚地区的经济合作和整个亚洲未来的经济发展趋势。本文利用贸易依存度、投资依存度等指标分析了中日两国经贸关系的相互依存性,指出了中日经贸关系中存在的问题,并根据一个多世纪以来中日两国间的经贸政策,对发展中日经贸关系做了战略思考。我国在加强与日本经济合作的同时,需加快实施“自主创新的竞争战略”。     

中日经贸关系发展状况与发展前景探讨

中日两国是邻邦,也是亚洲乃至世界重要的经济体。两国深化经贸合作不仅符合两国人民根本利益,也有利于世界和平、稳定与发展。如何在新形势下进一步发展两国的经贸合作,推动两国关系的健康发展,是中日双方都面临的重要课题。     

金融危机对美国对外贸易、贸易收支和经济增长的影响

金融危机通过对美国进口的抑制作用和对美国出口的刺激作用,改变美国的对外贸易规模和结构。金融危机对美国对外贸易的影响将首先传导到美国的贸易收支账户,收缩美国的贸易逆差。美国贸易逆差的收缩将传导到美国的国民收入账户,在一定程度上支撑美国的经济增长。所以,美国正在通过对外贸易输出金融危机。     

Economic determinants of free trade agreements

The purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs) and of the likelihood of FTAs between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model. We develop this econometric model based upon a general equilibrium model of world trade with two factors of production, two monopolistically-competitive product markets, and explicit intercontinental and intracontinental transportation costs among multiple countries on multiple continents. The empirical model correctly predicts, based solely upon economic characteristics, 85% of the 286 FTAs existing in 1996 among 1431 pairs of countries and 97% of the remaining 1145 pairs with no FTAs.     

Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?

For over 40 years, the gravity equation has been a workhorse for cross-country empirical analyses of international trade flows and — in particular — the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. However, the gravity equation is subject to the same econometric critique as earlier cross-industry studies of U.S. tariff and nontariff barriers and U.S. multilateral imports: trade policy is not an exogenous variable. We address econometrically the endogeneity of FTAs. Although instrumental-variable and control-function approaches do not adjust for endogeneity well, a panel approach does. Accounting econometrically for the FTA variable's endogeneity yields striking empirical results: the effect of FTAs on trade flows is quintupled. We find that, on average, an FTA approximately doubles two members' bilateral trade after 10 years.     

区域服务贸易协定中的“GATS-”条款研究

研究区域服务贸易协定的文献不可胜数,但涉及到\"GATS-\"条款的文献却是屈指可数。\"GATS-\"条款具有潜在的危害,理应引起适当的警惕,它们的存在不仅使人质疑\"GATS-\"下区域协定的合法地位,而且对于整个贸易体系都有着不良的暗示。本文在已有文献的基础上,对区域服务贸易安排的\"GATS-\"条款的主要特点、存在原因以及潜在的危害进行系统的梳理和分析,为区域服务贸易合作的发展提供有益的参考视角。