The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources

Exporters of exhaustible resources have historically exhibited higher income volatility than other economies, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open-economy model to quantify the role of precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of the exhaustible resource. The parameterized model fares moderately well at capturing current account balances in both cross-section and time-series data. The results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings, the more so the greater the weight of exhaustible resource revenues in future income.     

The Corn–Guano Model

The model presented here can be seen as an extension, specifically designed to deal with the issue of exhaustible resources, of the well‐known ‘corn model’. We believe that useful insights are obtained by concentrating on a benchmark case, that of an economy with only one reproducible ‘good’, corn, and only one ‘resource’, guano. The corn–guano model aims at delineating some major issues related to the introduction of exhaustible resources within a post‐Sraffian model. In this paper we concentrate on the dynamics of the price variables. The ultimate goal concerns more generally the treatment of intertemporal economies outside a regular growth path, i.e. it concerns the degree of generality of the post‐Sraffian theory itself.     

Technical Change and the Equilibrium Profit Rate in a Market with Sequential Bargaining

The Marxian theory of the tendentially falling rate of profit is shown to be consistent with a competitive equilibrium scenario for labor markets in which wages are determined by sequential bargaining within a stationary matching process. The central result establishes that if trade is possible, there exists a set of individually rational capital-using, labor-saving technical innovations which lower the equilibrium rate of profit if adopted universally. The model yields as an important special case wage conditions under which the universal adoption of any such innovation reduces the equilibrium rate of profit.     

Marxists and Accountants: bien étonnés de se trouver ensemble

In a recent issue of this journal, Basu (2013, Metroeconomica, 64 (2), pp. 293–318) presented some conditions under which replacement cost‐based profit rates and historical cost‐based profit rates evolve similarly, making, under these conditions, the choice between them irrelevant when studying long‐term profitability trends. The present note adds some realism to this analysis by allowing depreciation of fixed assets, and shows that the choice between the two profit rate operationalizations becomes relevant. Additionally, the impact of growth on the relation between the two profit rate evolutions is assessed.     

Critique of the Corn–Guano Model

It is argued that the corn–guano model proposed by Bidard and Erreygers is too simple as a representation of Hotelling's theory because it does not reflect the distinction between the resource in situ and the extracted resource. The claim to have transposed the representation of Hotelling's theory from the neoclassical to a classical context is not warranted because normal prices are not used. The model is elegant in its simiplicity but it does not face the relevant problems of exhaustible resources posed by the real world.     

从“中国原材料出口限制案”看我国应当如何援用GATT1994第20条(g)款

在"原材料出口限制案"中,中国援用GATT1994第20条(g)款抗辩失败。原因有二:一是未能证明贸易限制措施与保护可用尽的自然资源有关;二是未能证明贸易限制措施与限制国内生产或消费一同实施。本文以该案为背景,通过对GATT时期和WTO时期涉及第20条(g)款案件的比较研究,系统梳理了第20条(g)款各项要件的发展脉络,并且透过专家组和上诉机构的审查过程,对每一项要件的举证论证策略加以总结,最终构建出GATT1994第20条(g)款援用方案。     

Product Differentiation,the Volume of Trade and Profits under Cournot and Bertrand Duopoly

This article analyses how product differentiation affects the volume of trade under duopoly using Shubik-Levitan demand functions rather than the Bowley demand functions used by Bernhofen (2001). The drawback of Bowley demand functions is that an increase in product differentiation increases the size of the market so the increase in the volume of trade may be the result of the increase in the size of the market rather than the increase in product differentiation per se. The Shubik-Levitan demand functions have the advantage that an increase in product differentiation does not increase the size of the market, but consumers still have a ‘love of variety’. It is shown that the volume of trade in terms of quantities falls with increasing product differentiation when the trade cost is relatively low, but rises with increasing product differentiation when the trade cost is relatively high. Among the results, it is shown that the trade liberalisation is more likely to be profitable under Cournot duopoly than under Bertrand duopoly for differentiated products with a positive trade cost.     

中国原材料出口措施案:争论焦点与败诉因由剖析及反思

"中国原材料出口措施案"是继"中美轮胎特保案"败诉后的又一个中方败诉案。中国被指控对9种原材料实施出口限制措施违反《中国"入世"议定书》和GATT等相关义务,而中国则以实施出口限制措施是为了保护人类及动植物的生命或健康,保护环境和自然资源为由援引GATT第20(b)和(g)条作为抗辩依据。令人遗憾的是,专家组对本案相关条文均采用了刻板与严苛的解释,裁决结果对中国十分不利。然而,中国举证不足和中国"入世"法律文件及国内相关立法与政策存在的诸多问题,值得我们总结和反思,只有这样,才能有效应对未来的WTO诉讼。     

Harrodian instability in a post-Keynesian growth and distribution model

This article examines afresh the problem of Harrodian instability by incorporating into a post-Keynesian growth model an additional link, first proposed by Adrian Wood (A theory of profit, 1975), between firms’ pricing policies (which determine their profit margins) and their accumulation policies. It is assumed that firms’ pricing strategies are wholly linked to their need to self-finance some of their investments. Such a link suggests, a priori, that there is an endogenous self-correcting force, originating at the micro-level, that is capable of mitigating Harrodian instability. When investment increases or declines uncontrolledly, the variation in the accompanying profit margin is able to exert a contrary smoothing effect on effective demand (through changes in the multiplier). It is shown, firstly, that this effect is such that it leads to the emergence of a basin of attraction for multiple stationary growth rates. However, there is every likelihood that the growth rates in this basin of attraction will be higher than the natural growth rate (and will therefore be unsustainable in the long term). It is shown, secondly, that a sufficiently high budget deficit makes it possible to draw the convergent growth rate space towards a state of stationary equilibrium within the “sphere of the possible”. It is shown, finally, that the state has sufficient room for manoeuvre to arbitrate between competing objectives (employment–distribution–budget deficit) by virtue of the existence of a whole continuum of stationary equilibria.     

Trade pattern reversals in time-phased Ricardian systems and intertemporal efficiency

A timeless Ricardian system specializes geographically to minimize localized labor, just as a timeless neoclassical system specializes to minimize primary factor totals (in a vectoral sense). The steady states of a time-phased system, for zero interest or profit rate, similarly specialize to minimize primary factors. By contrast, when there is a positive interest rate, the observed steady states do not minimize primary totals. Thus, positive profit rates make a system superficially appear inefficient, much like systems with distorting taxes. However, from an intertemporal efficiency standpoint, which goes beyond steady states, it is shown that so long as the profit rates are geographically equal, the observed steady state is Pareto efficient, not Pareto inefficient. In contrast to the Emmanuel view that profit equalization leads to ‘unequal exchange’ and deadweight loss from trade, deadweight loss is shown to come from the absence of international lending markets. The present paper illustrates these truths, works out implications for factor-price equalization or nonequalization, gives conditions of trade equilibrium for time-phased systems, shows their multiplicity, and the possible Metcalfe-Steedman ‘instability’ from the standpoint of the global correspondence principle. A factor-price frontier is deduced, which gives the negative interest rate as a quasi-concave function of the real returns (in terms of any good) of the primary factors, and its well-behaved quantities dual is contrasted with the actual ill-behaved steady-state quantity relation.     

贸工农一体化经营与市场交易的选择研究

贸工农一体化经营与市场交易方式本质上是两种不同的资源配置方式,工商企业要结合自身情况选择适宜的形式。在以交易费用与管理费用的比较作为选择基准这一传统观点的基础上,从企业的市场业绩角度进行更加深入的考察,提出以一体化经营前后企业年利润总额及其上升率作为基准,并且从这一基准出发,对企业是否实行一体化经营提出了五项适用条件。     

Regimes of Interest Rates,Income Shares,Savings and Investment: A Kaleckian Model and Empirical Estimations for some Advanced OECD Economies

The first part of the paper deals with the effects of an exogenous variation in the monetary interest rate on the real equilibrium position of the economic system in a Kaleckian effective demand model. Different regimes of accumulation are derived and it is shown that a negative relation between the interest rate and the equilibrium rates of capacity utilization, accumulation and profit usually expected in post‐Keynesian theory only exists under special conditions. In the second part the model is applied to the data of some major OECD countries, the relevant coefficients are estimated and the relevance for an explanation of the course of GDP and capital stock growth since the early 1960s is discussed.     

A Note on Non‐Stationary Prices

The concepts of ‘real'’ and ‘nominal’ values or ‘real’ and ‘nominal’ rates of profit in the presence of non‐stationary prices are discussed. It is shown that the rate of profit depends on the choice of the numeraire if—and only if—relative prices change over time. In this case there are as many real rates as there are products, factors or bundles of products and factors. Although the rate of profit may vary with the choice of the numeraire, the ranking of processes according to profitability—and hence the choice of technique—is not affected.     

Is there an optimal crawl?

This paper shows that optimal exchange rate policy can be defined in terms of either a long-run secular policy or a short-run stabilization policy. The rate of crawl which maximizes real per capita consumption is shown to often differ from the exchange rate movements produced under fixed or floating exchange rates. And the optimal program for dealing with short-run speculative capital flows will involve both discrete and gradual exchange rate changes. It is also argued that domestic monetary policy and exchange rate policy are not independent instruments.     

论国有企业提升人才竞争力的组织创新对策

21世纪人才资源将成为科技进步、企业发展的第一资源。成为人类财富增长、经济进步的源泉.中国加入WTO后,我国经济将逐步纳入全球经济一体化轨道,我国国有企业面临的人才竞争将更加激烈。为减少加入WTO给我国国有企业人才竞争带来的冲击,国有企业应将吸引和培养一流人才与为人才提供发挥才能的环境放在同等重要的地位。组织创新,对于人才开发来说是一种“存量调整”。通过人才优化组合,达到人力资本低成本扩张。因此,组织创新是在人才开发上“向管理要效益”.实现人才科学管理,提高人才竞争力的有效途径。     

企业盈余管理行为对信贷融资的影响

文章以2011年至2014年沪深A股主板上市公司为研究对象,基于信息不对称理论,实证检验了盈余管理行为与信贷资源可获性的关系。结果显示,企业通过盈余管理行为上调利润越多,获取的银行信贷额越大。结合企业产权性质和金融市场化程度进一步深入探究盈余管理行为对信贷融资特征的影响,研究结果表明,国有企业偏向于通过应计盈余管理获取更多的信贷资源,非国有企业偏向于通过真实盈余管理获取更多的信贷资源;金融市场化强度高的地区企业偏向于通过真实盈余管理获取更多的信贷资源,金融市场化强度低的地区企业偏向于通过应计盈余管理获取更多信贷资源。     

Risk,uncertainty, and heuristics

Nearly a century ago, Frank Knight famously distinguished between risk and uncertainty with respect to the nature of decisions made in a business enterprise. He associated generating economic profit with making entrepreneurial decisions in the face of fundamental uncertainties. This uncertainty is complex because it cannot be reliably hedged unless it is reducible to risk. In making sense of uncertainty, the mathematics of probability that is used for risk calculations may lose relevance. Fast-and-frugal heuristics, on the other hand, provide robust strategies that can perform well under uncertainty. The present paper describes the structure and nature of such heuristics and provides conditions under which each class of heuristics performs successfully. Dealing with uncertainty requires knowledge but not necessarily an exhaustive use of information. In many business situations, effective heuristic decision-making deliberately ignores information and hence uses fewer resources. In an uncertain world, less often proves to be more.     

企业集团获利能力与价值挖掘:基于中国上市公司“利润逆转”的数据分析

我国上市公司净利润小与利润总额的利润逆转现象频频出现。通过对我国2001年度至2005年度出现利润逆转现象上市公司的总体样本分析,细究其出现逆转现象的原因所在,发现净利润并不能客观地反映集团公司的经营业绩。进一步讨论了利润逆转对于决策的意义所在,认为利润逆转的信号作用不容忽视,其所提供的战略信息不容小觑,因此利润逆转对于业绩评价尤为重要。利润逆转是企业未来持续获利能力的表达,是挖掘企业价值所在的有效途径。     

DEMAND UNCERTAINTY,MONOPOLY WITH TWO-STAGE INPUT DECISIONS,AND CORPORATION TAXES

This paper attempts to investigate the effects of changes in the lump sum tax and the profit tax rate on the input, output and price decisions of the risk averse monopoly under demand uncertainty. It is assumed that, while the monopoly must determine its capital ex ante, it may modify the output and price determinations through adjusting its labor ex post. As the results of its analysis, the paper presents the new propositions with respect to the corporation taxes which have never been shown in both the deterministic models and the models which exclude the possibility of two-stage input decisions, even under demand uncertainty.     

Competitive sustainable processes and pricing decisions in omnichannel closed-up supply chains under different channel power structures

In recent years, omnichannel retailing and remanufacturing issues have rapidly emerged in the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC). The omnichannel is a combination of online and in-store retailing, and it affects supply chain relationships and channel power structures by changing value creation processes. It allows consumers a hybrid shopping experience where they can order products online and pick them up in the store or test in-store and buy online (TSBO). Despite this practice, no studies exist on CLSC considering omnichannel retailing under different channel power structures. We investigate the TSBO retailing strategy and its impact on CLSC profit considering price competition between manufacturer and remanufacturer under Manufacturer Stackelberg (MS), Retailer Stackelberg (RS), Vertical Nash (VN), and cooperation (CO) models game settings. In this paper, mathematical models are developed to drive the optimal solution. A two-part tariff coordination mechanism (i.e., IS model) is also used to integrate all supply chain members. The proposed models examine the environmental and social welfare benefits of adopting green innovation products and remanufacturing processes in omnichannel retailing. A numerical study is carried out to illustrate the proposed models' application. The results show that the IS model can synchronize the economic, environmental, and social aspects leading to significant increases in performance. Total supply chain profit under the CO model is the highest. The manufacturer and remanufacturer generate higher profits in the MS model, whereas the retailer makes higher profits in the RS and VN models. When a manufacturer only wants to increase profit with green processes and is not concerned about omnichannel processes, more resources must be allocated for green innovation.