The economics of convergence: Towards monetary union in Europe

The Economics of Convergence: Towards Monetary Union in Europe. —In this paper, the literature on monetary integration has been surveyed in order to discover the economic rationale of the Maastricht convergence requirements. The traditional theory of optimum currency areas is silent on the need for Maastricht-type convergence requirements. Similarly, the “new” view of monetary integration using credibility concepts cannot easily be used to justify these convergence requirements. It is also argued that the dynamics of the convergence requirements will almost certainly lead to a “Great Divide” of the European Union. The paper concludes that less emphasis should be put on prior convergence conditions and more on strengthening the functioning of the future monetary institutions in the Union.     

What Should the Weights of the Three Major Currencies be in a Common Currency Basket in East Asia?*

We consider what type of regional common currency should be introduced in East Asia in the future. The common currency basket is, in itself, more desirable as an anchor currency. In this paper we define two types of currency basket and investigate the long‐term sustainability of adopting a common currency basket in East Asia. From our empirical results, a larger weight (but less than 100 percent) for the US dollar in the common currency basket tends to make bilateral exchange rates among East Asian countries stable in the long run.     

FINANCIAL AND MONETARY AUTONOMY AND INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE OTHER SACU COUNTRIES

The paper uses cointegration and error correction modelling techniques together with tests of weak exogeneity, and monthly interest rates for the period 1990 to 2005, to examine the degree of financial and monetary autonomy and interdependence between South Africa and the other Southern African Customs, Union (SACU) countries. The results reveal a high level of dependence of the other SACU countries' financial systems on South Africa's financial system, which suggests that a monetary unification with a single central bank (South African Reserve Bank) and monetary policy for the union is feasible.     

Can the European Community Afford to Neglect the Need for More Accountable Safety-Net Management?

As financial institutions and markets transact more and more cross-border business, gaps and flaws in national safety nets become more consequential. Because citizens of host (home) countries may be made to pay for mistakes made in the home (host) country, Basel's lead-regulator paradigm violates the principle of democratic accountability. Because important differences exist in policymaking authority, instruments, and goals, banking supervisors need to improve their ability to monitor and mitigate the consequences of defects in one another's performance. A straightforward way to enhance both capacities would be to establish opportunities for public trading in debt obligations and reinsurance derivatives issued by country-level deposit-insurance entities.Presidential address presented at the Sixtieth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 6–9, 2005, New York, New York. This paper extends and refocuses analysis first presented in Kane (2003) and (2005). The author wishes to thank Richard C. Aspinwall, Bill Bergman, and Mark Flannery for helpful criticisms of an earlier draft.     

The linkage of interest rates within the EMS

The Linkage of Interest Rates within the EMS. — The paper explores the linkage between interest rates in Germany and the United States with those on other currencies within the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System. Monthly data on money market interest rates and rolling window cointegration techniques are used. The principal findings are that during the early part of the sample period (1979–1995), there is widespread cointegration between both US and German interest rates and those on other currencies in the ERM; but during the later part of the sample, this “worldwide” linkage disintegrates, cointegration between German and other ERM interest rates strengthening whilst that with the US disappears.     

How international outsourcing drives up Eastern European wages

How International Outsourcing Drives Up Eastern European Wages. — This paper analyzes the effects of intermediate goods trade on the development of real wages in Central and Eastern European manufacturing. The empirical findings show that world exports in intermediate goods of the CEEC exhibit a negative impact on wages, and imports a positive one. Since 1993, intermediate goods trade between the EU and the CEEC accounted for an increase in wages being most pronounced in Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic.     

Human capital,trade, and economic growth

Human Capital, Trade, and Economic Growth. — Human capital, because of its special role in innovative activity and technological progress, has formed the bedrock of the new theories of endogenous growth. However, it not only serves as an engine of growth but also as a productive input along with labor and physical capital. In this study, the authors find evidence of the importance of both roles of human capital. They also find that the relationship between growth and the external effects of human capital vary according to trade regime. When literacy rates are relatively high, open economies grow about 0.65 to 1.75 percentage points more than closed economies.     

Default premia on European government debt

Default Premia on European Government Debt. — This paper addresses the question of the existence and size of a risk premium in the Eurobond market. We measure the yield difference between German government bonds and bonds issued in Deutsche Mark by several European countries. The results are regressed against macroeconomic variables supposed to be determinants of the risk of default on government debt. Our yield differences are smaller than those found between US states. However, some of our macroeconomic variables seem to be good predictors of yield differentials. A conclusion is that yield differentials partially are related to risks perceived by market participants.     

Comparing monetary policy transmission across European countries

Comparing Monetary Policy Transmission across European Countries. — This paper re-evaluates the estimation of monetary policy transmission. Within the Structural VAR framework, five methodological points are identified, recognition of which can help to improve the reliability and credibility of estimates. The findings of the methodological analysis are applied to the estimation of models for thirteen European countries. Results show that considerable differences in the transmission mechanism exist between these economies, mainly in intensity, but also in timing.     

Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union

The success of the integration process of the new EU Member States is reflected by the convergence performance. Sustainable convergence assumes that potential growth rates of the less developed countries continuously exceed the dynamics of the potential output of the developed countries. However, the financial and economic crisis of 2008 has resulted in a fundamentally new situation as regards these issues. This paper considers real convergence, catch-up processes and in terms of these the main economic growth trends. The study focuses mainly on the potential growth trends. The recession has, however, affected the individual countries to different degrees. The study classified the Member States into four groups based on the initial circumstances and the vulnerability originating from them; these are ‘Developed’ countries and ‘Convergence’ countries, three groups of the latter are ‘Mediterranean’ countries, ‘Catch-up’ countries and ‘Vulnerable’ countries. Potential growth and the contribution of the individual growth factors might follow significantly different paths in these country groups. The convergence countries might face especially great challenges. Potential growth rate of the ‘Convergence’ countries—according to simulations—is expected to recover less in the mid-term, than that of the ‘Developed’ countries, i.e. convergence slows down, it might come to a halt or even divergence might occur in certain countries. It might result in a ‘Convergence Crisis’ particularly in certain ‘Mediterranean’ and ‘Vulnerable’ new Member States. Also, longer term simulations indicate that the European convergence processes might slow down and stop in certain countries. These trends may have significant effects on economic policies facilitating potential growth. We apply extensive quantitative analysis, production function and growth accounting approaches in the study.     

The Western European marriage pattern and economic development

For several centuries before the First World War women's age at first marriage in the west of Europe was higher than in the east (and in the rest of the world). In their low mortality regimes Western Europeans chose lower fertility in part through a higher female age at marriage. This allowed women to increase their human capital both formally and informally in the years before child bearing so that more informed mothers brought up better educated offspring. The demographic pattern influenced the stock of human capital and directly contributed to Western Europe's development advantage. The predicted relations of this economic model of the household are tested with two datasets, one at the county level for England for the second half of the nineteenth century and the other at the national level for Europe 1870–1910.     

Simple credibility tests of the ERM bands for the pound sterling and the Italian lira

This article presents evidence that the European Monetary System (EMS) bands for the Italian lira and the pound sterling were not credible for most of the period 1990–1992, and especially during the week prior to their withdrawal from the EMS system. Using a simple test, developed by Svensson, domestic interest rates for both Italy and the United Kingdom have been found to be mostly outside the rate-of-return bands implied by the official arrangements of the EMS target zone system. Furthermore, comparing implied forward rates for various maturities with the official EMS bands of both currencies, we again found that the followed monetary policies in both countries were not in general consistent with those needed to maintain an orderly functioning of the (EMS) system. The Svensson test can further be used as an indicator of potential speculative attacks on an EMS currency, and, in turn, as a signal of an emerging need to adjust the corresponding country's monetary policy.     

Is the Gulf Cooperation Council an Optimum Currency Area?

This article applies the theory of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G‐PPP) to assess the potential for an optimum currency area (OCA) for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period 1973–2009. Utilizing a multivariate cointegration procedure that allows for up to two predetermined structural breaks, the results suggest that the GCC countries could form an OCA since macroeconomic conditions are in favor of forming an OCA, i.e., real exchange rates share common trends and the parameter stability test indicates that the G‐PPP relationship has been stable for the period analyzed. Moreover, the results suggest that the withdrawal of Oman and/or United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the union has no impact on forming the union. However, based on other OCA criteria, the results suggest that the OCA may be challenged.     

Misalignments of real exchange rates and the credibility of nominal currency bands

Misalignments of Real Exchange Rates and the Credibility of Nominal Currency Bands. — This paper analyzes a sticky-price target zone model in which realignment risk is modeled endogenously as a function of the degree of real exchange rate misalignments. The implications of the model are used to investigate the credibility of selected nominal ERM exchange rate bands. We find that a lack of credibility of the ERM currency bands occurs mostly in countries with substantial swings and persistent misalignments of real exchange rates. These findings suggest that the major real appreciations in some European bilateral real exchange rates between 1987 and 1992 have been pivotal in triggering the ERM currency crises of 1992 and 1993.     

Influence of ADB Bond Issues and US Bonds on Asian Government Bonds*

This article examines whether there is a correlation between the government bond markets of Asian countries and those of the USA, and whether the efforts of international organizations to improve bond markets have had any effect in East Asia. Because the sizes of the government bond markets are larger than those of the corporate bond markets in East Asia, the present paper uses the daily data of government bonds to examine two questions: whether government bond yields in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand correlate with US government bond yields, and whether bonds in these Asian countries are influenced by ADB bond issues. The present study analyzes these issues by demonstrating the fluctuations in bond yields and carrying out an estimation using the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. The results substantiate that there is indeed a correlation between Asian and US bond markets, and that ADB bond issuance in local markets can contribute to the development of Asian bond markets.     

Capital controls and international trade finance in a dual exchange rate regime: The Belgian experience post-mortem

Capital Controls and International Trade Finance in a Dual Exchange Rate Regime: The Belgian Experience Post-Mortem. — The purpose of the paper is to model “leads and lags” capital flows on the official segment of a dual exchange market and to examine the effects of various types of capital controls imposed by authorities on the official spot and forward exchange markets. The focus of the analysis is the degree of insulation provided by a “dual exchange market cum capital controls” in face of a speculative crisis. The crucial variables in this respect are the deviation from covered interest parity and the forward risk premium. Results of the theoretical model are confronted with empirical evidence over the 1975–85 period.